Preview AFL Round 8 - Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 7:40PM Saturday 18 May

Predict the result


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AFL Premiership Round 8
Collingwood V Geelong

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Saturday May 18MCG 7:50 PM (Local Time)​

GEELONG VS COLLINGWOOD
Round 8, Saturday May 18th, MCG


THE FORM LINE
Geelong has surprised most in the football world by being 7-0 and on top of the ladder, having just defeated the only other previously undefeated team in Essendon. The Cats have done this despite not excelling at the contested ball and having a weakened ruck division. Interestingly in most of the games we have been behind in the first half and then come home very strong in the second half. Collingwood's form has been more up and down, with wins over North Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond and St Kilda, while being belted by Hawthorn and Essendon, and losing to Freo in the West last week. That game described Collingwood's season well, a very slow start before storming back with six goals in the third quarter, but then after hitting the lead in the last being overrun and beaten.

MEDICAL ROOM
Both sides are quite depleted and are doing well to still notch up wins with what they have available. Collingwood's best side is currently missing Beams with a quad injury, Keefe with an ACL who is expected back mid season. Toovey recently injured his ACL and will miss the season, while Fasolo will do likewise with the dreaded navicular foot fracture. Dale Thomas, after starting the season late from ankle surgery, is troubled by it again and will miss this clash. Off season recruit Clinton Young from Hawthorn is yet to play because of hamstring and foot troubles, while Heath Shaw is suspended after earning a cheer from all in the world for hitting the little hobbit last week.

Geelong meanwhile is missing a similar number of players from it's best 22. Off season ruck recruit Hamish McIntosh has yet to play because of achilles and knee troubles, but is clearly in our best 22 when he can get fit. Fellow rucks Dawson Simpson and Nathan Vardy have been injured until the last couple of weeks, leaving Trent West and Mark Blicavs to carry the ruck load. Exciting forward Daniel Menzel will miss all of this season and probably next year as well after undergoing a fourth knee reconstruction, and will be missed. After a great first couple of games, Travis Varcoe injured his shoulder and will be unavailable until at least round 15 after surgery, robbing the best 22 of a lot of run and precision footskills. Important tagger Taylor Hunt will be sidelined until after the mid season bye after fracturing his clavicle last week. Defensive recruit from Melbourne Jared Rivers will miss a similar amount of time after having knee surgery following the Dogs game, leaving us thin for key defenders. Gun small forward Paul Chapman will miss this clash with a hamstring injury, while key midfielder James Kelly is suspended after his hit on Brendon Goddard last week.

KEY PLAYERS-GEELONG

STEVEN MOTLOP

Motlop has had a wonderful 18 months, really establishing himself in the 22. Like Johnno, he can frustrate with the sublime one minute, and then mucking up the next (see his goalkicking last week), but the improvement is clear, and his ability to run and carry and hit the scoreboard is crucial to us. Averaging 19 possessions a year, and having kicked 11 goals in 7 games, his influence on the game is much greater than it was last year, and he offers us a great deal of run and creativity between the arcs. Much as I have commented on Collingwood's midfield and it's strength, to me their obvious weakness is their ability to defend small forwards, amplified with Toovey gone for the year. Obrien, good as he is up the field, can easily be turned around in circles and exploited when dragged deep into defence, Shaw is suspended, Russell has done little since switching clubs and Clarke doesn't look great as an accountable small defender. So Motlop (and Stokes and Bundy when he rests forward) could really break the game open for us, providing his goalkicking is more accurate this week.

TRENT WEST
As he did last year, West has carried the ruck load amidst an injury crisis, and we should be thankful for his durability. I feel in recent weeks he has started to improve after a slow-ish start to the year. I have named him as a key player this week because as mentioned, this game will be won and lost in the midfield, so against a strong midfield like the Pies, we cannot afford to get slaughtered in the rucks. Fortunately Jolly is not in great form and is playing like a bloke in his final year, but it is crucial for us that Westy and Blicavs at the very least break even and allow our mids to halve the contest. I would also be instructing him to run forward at every opportunity and test the fact that Jolly struggles to cover the ground thesedays, since Westy is a good mark and kick for goal.

TOM LONERGAN
For all Collingwood's problems and issues this year, they can be thankful that one part of their forward line, Cloke, is still functioning quite well. Averaging 8.9 marks a game and already having kicked bags of 4 (twice), 5 and 7 goals this season, Cloke is performing extremely well given the at times haphasard delivery-they often bomb it on his head rather than to his advantage, when he has multiple defenders on him. So with better delivery, and a boot that can kick goals from 60, he could damage sides even more. Lonners has traditionally marked him in recent years and I expect this matchup again. The key for Lonners is to take front position and deny it it to Cloke, for once he has it he is very hard to shift. As always, it's a team job and our mids need to work hard to push back and block Cloke's space, but the job Lonners does will go a long way to winning us the game.

KEY PLAYERS-COLLINGWOOD
SCOTT PENDLEBURY
Is most definitely the Rolls Royce of the Collingwood midfield, and will be most happy to see Taylor Hunt, who would probably have tagged him, is not playing. Pendlebury will need close attention because apart from his ability to win the ball at stoppages, what sets him apart from many of his teammates is his ability to deliver it by foot with precision. When by contrast, I've seen a lot of Collingwood players simply bomb in hope to Cloke this year, Pendlebury has the ability to hit him on the lead with passes that defenders can't stop. It's always hard to stop him getting a lot of the ball, but we need to limit the time and space he has when he has it.

TRAVIS CLOKE
Has been in super form this year, which is a very meritorious effort given Collingwood are not going as well as last year and the supply to him is not as good. Having kicked 22 goals already this season, he has the capacity on any day to kick a bag and really rip a side open. The key with Cloke is his engine and workrate, and the ability to take contested marks, as he is very hard to shift once he has front position. We need Lonergan to play him from in front and play him well, but in particular we need to ensure our midfielders push back hard to clog the space and force him to have multiple opponents to deal with.

HARRY OBRIEN
Has been playing on the wing more this year, from what I have seen, but with no Toovey or Shaw, I would expect he, along with Russell, will be Collingwood's defacto small defenders. Has reasonable strength in the contest, and will need all of it against our battery of small forwards. I think the key with him is to run him in circles, he can have quite a large turning circle at times and if you keep repeat leading and then turn him around, you can do damge, and hopefully Motlop and Stokes can do just that.

HOW IT WILL BE PLAYED
Collingwood's inclusion of two rucks indicates they feel our ruck division is a weakness and they want to try and dominate us around the stoppages. The flip side of that coin is that it could expose them for run, especially since neither Jolly nor Witts is particularly mobile. Collingwood's strength is their midfield and I expect them to play to that, they will try to get a lot of numbers around the stoppages and win them. I would expect they will push their forwards up into the midfield to try and create a reasonably open forward line for Cloke and try and isolate him and whoever is defending him. Given our success in playing slingshot footy and their weakness against small forwards, they will probably also try and push back hard into defence when we have the ball to clog space. Geelong will focus on the same things that has worked for us so far; no doubt Scotty would like to see us get better at clearances and contested ball, but we will focus on turning the ball over when the opposition has the ball, and then scoring from that. We will place a lot of pressure on the ball carrier to limit their time to spot up a lead and thus force them to kick it long, which guys like Taylor and Enright eat up. I would expect us to try and isolate our small forwards given Collingwood's weakness in this area, and someone like Motlop will be used as an outlet wherever possible.

THE VERDICT
I know the Cats are raging favourites due to our unbeaten start and mainly Collingwood's inconsistent form, but I do not share the view that this win is a lay down misere. We still have weaknesses, mainly in our midfield and winning contested ball, and Kelly's absence will maginfy this. Collingwood have a very strong midfield, and the recent times they have beaten us, it has started there, so it will be a big job for a midfield minus Kelly and Hunt and Chapman to win the contest there, especially with an inexperienced ruck combination. I do feel we have the potency in the front half to score heavily, and providing Lonergan can limit Cloke's output, I am very confident in our defence vs their forwards. I expect Collingwood to be really fired up and given their good recent record against us, they cannot be discounted. I think Geelong will win, but only due to our strong second halves, and the game will be in the balance until the last 10 minutes.

Geelong by 17 points.
 
May 11, 2006
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It's amazing that if we beat them next week they will be 4/4. Who'd a thought that before the season started. I do think something is amiss down at Pieland at the moment. Bucks tenure as senior coach isn't going as well as they hoped.
 
Sep 15, 2005
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The challengers keep on presenting, and Collingwood are as legitimate as any; they managed to knock us off the past two times we played them.

The club has taken some impressive scalps in the first 7 rounds, most of us are probably still processing just how good a win the Essendon clash was given that we fielded a relatively inexperienced side.

But the clash with the Pies will further test the teams resolve, resources and mettle.

Collingwood's dropped their game against Freo, but Freo at Pattersons Stadium under Ross Lyon is going to be a real challenge for all teams this season, us included - Collingwood is a proud club and will be up for this game, they want to keep up with the big boys.

we'll miss Taylor Hunt, he would have been handy for either Swan or Pendlebury or even Sidebottom, wishing Poodle a speedy recovery because I have really enjoyed watching him play this season.

I think we have the spread of talent to beat Collingwood, despite losing Hunt and in all probability Jame Kelly too.

The availability of Paul Chapman and Joel Corey will obviously be a talking point throughout the week.
 

HappyChappy35

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Jun 19, 2011
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In: Corey, Chapman (if fit)
Out: Poodle (inj), Schroder (not on form, would just unfortunately have to make way for JC if he's in the selection frame)

Other than that we shouldn't make any wholesale changes. Our structures appeared quite settled against the Bombers and simply omitting/selecting players at will would upset those structures, which are clearly working.

Thurlow demonstrated on Friday night that he's earned his place in our best 22, at least until injured players return, and I see no reason why he shouldn't line up against the Pies. Might also be worth giving Kersten a look but otherwise I don't foresee a whole lot of changes.

Danger game this but I think we'll have Collingwood covered. They'll be bolstered by Beams, Ball, Young, and Maxwell possibly returning, however haven't looked threatening like the top sides have this season.

Pies play a high-possession brand of footy which is very susceptible to pressure from good sides. If we apply a good, consistent amount of pressure and intensity, especially around contests and on their main ball carriers, they'll crumble. Cats by 25.
 

Jmac2225

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Jun 6, 2012
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I find it really hard to see us dropping this one on form. To me we are flying and Collingwood are just getting by on the talent of a handful of players but otherwise are genuinely struggling.

That said I really rate Collingwood and they should never be taken lightly especially seeing as they had the wood on us last year and will no doubt come to play again with a chip on their shoulder from being shown up by us in 2011.

Not that it's been publicized as much as our rivalry with Hawthorn but I think the pies side would feel similiar towards us as we did against the Dawks after 08.

Anyway back to the game I can't see many changes. Hunt obviously out the ins will depend on player availability (Chap, Corey) with Caddy next in line if they still aren't right.

Hawkins is the other interesting one. Clearly not right he can't even jump at the ball. Needs a few weeks to get right but like most I think the MC are waiting for GC, GWS, Bye to give him an extended break. If his problem flairs up though he could be put on ice earlier. Looking forward too his break actually just for the sake of getting a good look at Kersten/Vards.

On the Collingwood side of things they have quality players on the brink of selection who haven't played AFL footy for a long time in Ball and Didak. Not sure if these ins would be good or bad for them. Think Dids is finished anyway so more than likely bad.

The verdict after all that pointless analysis Cats by 6+ goals. Pies are struggling with injury, form and a crap coach. Don't like to be arrogant or take Collingwood for granted but they really are struggling ATM.
 
Jan 8, 2009
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I never feel confident against the Pies. Probably because they had our measure for a year or two, a little while back.

Hopefully the extra days break plus the travel back may assist us with Tomohawk down so much I think we need to add Kersten as another target.

The overall output from our keys is down considerably to prior year
 

SuperCats9

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Last year they beat us twice and we struggled to play well against them. This year is different though, they have some major problems, while we are on top playing some fantastic footy, we should win but it's one of those games.

Also, didn't the Pies vow not to lose to us after the 2011 GF? they will no doubt play their best footy next week.
 
They look awfully slow
I've been saying that all season to my boss (one eye confident Pies supporter) and he reckons they'll be OK.

I begged to differ. They look terribly slow, but most sides do when they're either losing or playing ordinary football.

With the influx of pace into our side, this is the one area I think we can expose them in, although the loss of Hunt and Varcoe isn't positive.

We move the ball too swiftly for the Pies to present too much danger, and I think with their backline troubles and our inside 50 differentials, we can expose them down back, even if we again lose in the centre.

I think Chappy and Corey will return to the team to offset the loss of Hunt somewhat, and Motlop becomes the X Factor in the contest once again. I shouldn't think Kelly will be in much trouble, (not much in it) and they do have their problems with Shaw from what I've been told, although I didn't see the incident.

I wouldn't take their form lightly, although I have a feeling we'll win by a fairly big margin without sounding too cocky.
 
Aug 2, 2012
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Should be OK, we've got more good players than they have.
Hunt and Kelly will be big losses, but Corey and Chapman are pretty handy replacements, with Josh Hunt available if one of them doesn't recover in time - or they may up Cadds if they want to exploit the Collingwood slow as treacle factor.
 
Should be OK, we've got more good players than they have.
Hunt and Kelly will be big losses, but Corey and Chapman are pretty handy replacements, with Josh Hunt available if one of them doesn't recover in time - or they may up Cadds if they want to exploit the Collingwood slow as treacle factor.
If Kelly get's rubbed out for that bump, I'll write a letter to the AFL asking for an explanation as to why Franklin and the like continually receive leniency for cruder incidents.

A disgrace if Kelly goes for that.

IN: Chapman, Corey

OUT: Hunt, Horlin-Smith
 
Aug 2, 2012
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If Kelly get's rubbed out for that bump, I'll write a letter to the AFL asking for an explanation as to why Franklin and the like continually receive leniency for cruder incidents.

A disgrace if Kelly goes for that.

IN: Chapman, Corey

OUT: Hunt, Horlin-Smith

(1) Good luck with the letter.:D
(2) That tramping noise you can hear in the background is the GHB (Golden-Haired Boy) Mafia coming to get you.:p
 
(1) Good luck with the letter.:D
(2) That tramping noise you can hear in the background is the GHB (Golden-Haired Boy) Mafia coming to get you.:p
In reality, unless we rest somebody or someone has a little niggle, I see the omission as being between Guthrie, Thurlow and H-S. Guthrie done enough to cement a spot, as did Thurlow.
 

thebarry111

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After the Pies' horrific performance last night, I think we can say for sure Geelong will have no trouble whatsoever next round.

Has anyone else seen heath shaw punch the little niggler below the belt last night? I would be amazed if he didn't get a week for that. He will be a massive loss for them as they already seem to be really struggling for run and carry. We really should run them off their feet this week. Kelly shouldn't go, but has carry over points which is of concern. You never know how the review panel will interpret things.
 

Jon Douglas

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Jan 8, 2013
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If Kelly get's rubbed out for that bump, I'll write a letter to the AFL asking for an explanation as to why Franklin and the like continually receive leniency for cruder incidents.

A disgrace if Kelly goes for that.

IN: Chapman, Corey

OUT: Hunt, Horlin-Smith

Schroder stays in and Hyphen goes out ??? Will not happen. GFC really see Hyphen as a player and want games for him. Hyphen is a strong bodied mid who needs another 20-30 games so he can start to develop into the player GFC see him as.
 

Jon Douglas

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On form we should beat the Pies - but remember we have a heap of injuries to cover and it is possible with half the team under 60 games - some of the youngsters may not be consistent. So nothing is assured.

Hopefully Corey and Chappy back as that adds some experience.

THunt out and I fear Kelly will go.

So those two for Chappy and Kelly. Not sure that Schroder will keep his possie but given injuries and suspensions he may do so.

Would probably prefer Caddie to come in for Schroder.
 
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