2014 draw

[Chief Ten Beers]

Geelong twice, Freo twice, Hawthorn twice, Sydney possibly once this time etc...the easier draw would be swap Geelong with Carlton and then there's Essendon twice. Tigers too since they made 5th this year.

Anyway, we will play those top teams at the beginning of the year consecutively, have easy run in the middle of the year with GWS and Melbourne grouped together, then to top it off, we play the top teams again during an intense run just before finals start (assuming we even make top 8 next year).

Same as every other year.

 

[DermiesLuvChild]

Under the fair system that should be used that I am pushing we would get.....

The runner up (going by the bookies Fremantle)
5th (going by the bookies Port Adelaide)
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Melbourne


Home games vs four interstate sides, locked in, plus Melbourne...

You lost me at fair.

 

[DermiesLuvChild]

Geelong twice, Freo twice, Hawthorn twice, Sydney possibly once this time etc...the easier draw would be swap Geelong with Carlton and then there's Essendon twice. Tigers too since they made 5th this year.

Anyway, we will play those top teams at the beginning of the year consecutively, have easy run in the middle of the year with GWS and Melbourne grouped together, then to top it off, we play the top teams again during an intense run just before finals start (assuming we even make top 8 next year).

Same as every other year.

With the new system for calculating the draw in 2014, we cannot be allocated more than 2 teams (play twice) from the top 6 teams (after finals).
We most likely be allocated 2 return games from top 6, 2 return games from middle 6 & 1 return game from bottom 6.

nb Tigers finished 7th (end of finals) hence they are in the middle 6 with us.

 

[manicmagpie]

We already know that we play the Bombers and Carlton twice, that only leaves 3 more teams that we play twice, never too hard to figure out our draw.

As for interstate trips, it should look like this based on a reversal of our 2013 trips;

1 to QLD (Gabba vs Lions)
2 to NSW (Swans at ANZ, GWS at Skoda)
1 to SA (Crows at Adelaide Oval, can't wait for this one)
1 to WA (Eagles)

But I suspect the AFL will try and throw us in for one more interstate trip next year, which doesn't really matter as it just means one less game at Etihad (14 games guaranteed at the MCG).

As you say, our fixture usually goes to a formula. We always play Carlton & Essendon twice, we get 5 interstate trips, one of our 5 double ups is an interstate side etc.

So for me it looks like this:

Definites: Carlton & Essendon
Almost Certainly: Richmond (Carlton cannot play all 3 of Richmond, Essendon & us twice because of the new system, so the AFL will slot us against Richmond twice for only the second time in a decade to keep the blockbuster numbers up) + another top 6 team, either Hawthorn or Sydney.

Which just leaves whichever bottom 6 team we get. It won't be the Bulldogs, as we've just put in place an arrangement with them to request an away game against them which we will heavily promote.

Given that we generally play exactly one interstate team twice I'm guessing if we don't get Sydney we'll probably cop West Coast.

Taking a guess at our interstate trips I think we'll go to Gold Coast (this fixture has had brilliant attendances both times it has happened, and with GC beating us up there this year it'll help it grow even more), Sydney (too good a crowd puller to ignore), WC and possibly both Adelaide sides (AFL will want big numbers for Adelaide Oval in its first year).

I reckon we won't go to GWS as not even the Magpie Army can draw a big crowd at the Showgrounds. Expect this to change whenever GWS start to look decent. I also think we'll skip Brisbane as we have been there 9 times in 11 seasons.

 

[jimmy35]

Because of the blockbusters? If so, thanks Ben.

Don't know how fast news travels to Young but there's a new formula in place, based on grouping of teams 1-6, 7-12 & 13-18. Internet is your friend.

Next year we could have virtually the same draw as this year except we play the Tigers instead of the Blues twice and West Coast instead of North twice. Looks very similar indeed. AFL are always going to maximise their cash cow. I'm in Sydney now, everything travels faster.
Common sense is your friend.

 

[Jelly Bean]

GUARANTEE you that group 1 will have 2 double-ups, and group 3 will have 1 double-up. No way the AFL wants to be seen to hand us an easy draw. Of course Essenscum, Adelaide, Richmond might end up with cushier draws. Not that I'm paranoid, it's just that the AFL really is out to get us!

Can you explain why the AFL would be out to get us?

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

With the new system for calculating the draw in 2014, we cannot be allocated more than 2 teams (play twice) from the top 6 teams (after finals).
We most likely be allocated 2 return games from top 6, 2 return games from middle 6 & 1 return game from bottom 6.

nb Tigers finished 7th (end of finals) hence they are in the middle 6 with us.

Yeah I know, but I'll see it when I believe it!

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Given where we finished, the new rules in the draw and the fact that we've had the hardest or secodn hardest draw every year since 2010, I'd say next year will be a bit easier.

But I say the word 'easier' as a relative term. An 'easier' draw than 10/11/12/13 is still a hard draw for most clubs.

 

[Collingwooditis]

Don't you people know anything about Pigboy yet!?
Have a look at our last half dozen draws, what Fat Andy does is sort out our draw, make it impossible, then look at the rest.
There is far more to the draw than just who we play twice. And even that is not just about giving us the top 5 sides, we will get the teams he knows can beat us, thus, we'll get Hawthorn, Port, and Freo, plus Carlton and Essendon of course.
Do you know how many times we've played Carlton only once? Ever?
Once! 1991. Every other year since footy began we've played them twice (obviously we played everyone twice in the good old days)
And Essendon? Twice! ('91 was a strange year!) So those two are a lock in, although... Given that we beat Carlton twice this year... Nah, he won't throw that money away.

The other vital factors are when and where we play those sides, and when and where we play the Melbourne, GWS, StKilda kind of sides, mostly when. We WILL get the likes of Hawthorn and Freo at the start and at the end of the season, and the Melbournes & StKilda's in the middle, towards the end so it doesn't help our percentage, but at least half a dozen games before the finals. The last 5 or 6 games will be top 4 sides and sides that beat us this year. There are a couple of new factors to take into account this year such as the emergence of Gold Coast and the fall of West Coast, so rest assured we don't get WCE twice, nor will we get them just before finals. We might however get Gold Coast early or late, rather than the usual round 15-18.
Since the 'expansion teams showed up we have only had them once, and only well after halfway, it's been one of the reasons for our crappy percentage, compare our draws to Sydney's or Freos.

Another factor will be the two byes, you can be sure we'll get top 4 sides after each bye, just watch!
And although Richmond are coming good, we will NOT get them twice, as they havent beaten us in donkeys.

Those who doubt me need to go to AfLStats and look at our past half dozen draws compared to those of Sydney, Freo, and the other sides Pigboy wants to win flags. If he could he'd have us play Hawthorn every other week, but fortunately he can't.

SO…What do we know? It will be Hawthorn, Freo, Port, Carlton & Essendon twice. The only other possibilities (in place of Freo & Port) are North, Sydney and Gold Coast.
Plus we'll get sides like Hawthorn, Carlton, Geelong, Freo, Essendon, Sydney, North, Port, at the start and the end of the season, with the likes of Footscray, Melbourne, Brisbane, StKilda, GWS, coming between rounds 6-18. We'll get Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong after each bye, but he'll be able to say we have a fair draw because we'll get most of our games at the MCG, (because we travel so well)
When it comes out compare those factors to sides like Sydney and Freo, who will play dud sides early.

I have no doubt that the AFL engineers the results it wants, and that it employs very subtle methods to achieve those results.

I know this sounds like a big ol' conspiracy theory, but remember, just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean people aren't out to get me!!!

And speaking of our favourite Porcine predator, What a slashing job he's done of sweeping the Essendon saga under the rug! Looks like we're destined to never find out whether Essendon players actually took any illegal substances!

 

[datwhitey]

Can you explain why the AFL would be out to get us?

Hi JB, when I wrote this I was being semi-facetious, but also trying to stir up a little "the world's agin us" sentiment. But I think Collingwooditis has summed up things pretty well.

 

[Staki_13]

We will play Carlton and Essendon twice next that is a given. I'm guessing we will play Sydney and Richmond twice. Definitely Richmond twice as we only played them once this season. Finally, whoever wins the grand final we will have to play twice.