Or the fact that the MCG is essentially a neutral venue.
EDIT: Gazzumped, well and truly. May be a tweak worth pondering, but I guess it complicates the model somewhat.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
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Or the fact that the MCG is essentially a neutral venue.
EDIT: Gazzumped, well and truly. May be a tweak worth pondering, but I guess it complicates the model somewhat.
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It's really the opposite; a comment on Ross Lyon teams, rather than Freo in particular. Or low-scoring, ultra-defensive teams in general. I see that as a high-risk strategy because if you like to win 10 goals to 8, it only takes a bad five minutes to ruin your day. As opposed to the Hawthorn model where they just keep attacking and figure at some point you won't be able to keep up with them.
Also, if you're low-scoring and the opposition unlocks your defense, you are truly ****ed.
Obviously Ross Lyon has coached sides to within a bee's dick of a flag on multiple occasions. But I just feel it's a relatively brittle strategy. Pure opinion, though, and you're right, I haven't watched Freo much this year.
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Monday.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Not much movement this week, since the prelim results were close to expected.
The squiggle expects:
Hawthorn 92 Fremantle 79
How awesome to get a Grand Final between the most attacking team and the most defensive. It should be possible to tell who's controlling the match by Hawthorn's score alone: if the Hawks can keep the goals coming, they're almost sure to win, with the Dockers unable to keep up in a high-scoring contest. But if the Dockers can choke them, it's their game.
Turning to the Historical Squiggles for guidance, 1994 was a similar battle between high-attack (Geelong) and a high-defence team from the west (Eagles). Geelong had scored 100+ regularly during the season, including the previous 3 finals and 7 matches straight, but West Coast held them to their lowest score of the year, allowing the Cats just 63 points while kicking 143 themselves.
It's hard to find more similar years, though, as both Hawthorn and Freo are in rare territory: It's not often we get a team as attacking as Hawthorn or as defensive as the Dockers. To have both in the same year, facing each other in the Grand Final, is really something.
My tip: Hawthorn is the sensible choice, but there's little data to say what happens when two teams like this meet in a Grand Final.
After Preliminary Finals
The squiggle expects:
Hawthorn 92 Fremantle 79
How awesome to get a Grand Final between the most attacking team and the most defensive. It should be possible to tell who's controlling the match by Hawthorn's score alone: if the Hawks can keep the goals coming, they're almost sure to win, with the Dockers unable to keep up in a high-scoring contest. But if the Dockers can choke them, it's their game.
Turning to the Historical Squiggles for guidance, 1994 was a similar battle between high-attack (Geelong) and a high-defence team from the west (Eagles). Geelong had scored 100+ regularly during the season, including the previous 3 finals and 7 matches straight, but West Coast held them to their lowest score of the year, allowing the Cats just 63 points while kicking 143 themselves.
It's hard to find more similar years, though, as both Hawthorn and Freo are in rare territory: It's not often we get a team as attacking as Hawthorn or as defensive as the Dockers. To have both in the same year, facing each other in the Grand Final, is really something.
My tip: Hawthorn is the sensible choice, but there's little data to say what happens when two teams like this meet in a Grand Final.
Does this take into account home advantage as well or is the MCG in this situation seen as a neutral venue?
Dr Tigris
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The only fly in the squiggle ointment is that Freo hasn't had their best goalscoring setup all year until recently. They are now much more potent offensively. They are now a much more effective attacking team due to Pav being back. But it is still the attacking monsters versus the defensive stranglers. Can't wait.
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It assumes home ground advantage. At a neutral venue, it would expect Hawthorn 86 Fremantle 85.
Best attach v best defence but percentage similar
Hawks about 6 th best defence but freo 7 th worst attack
Hawks about 6 th best defence but freo 7 th worst attack
You beat us twice in th H&A
yeah... what do you mean though?
I think it should almost be neutral. The crowd will potentially be more Freo than Hawthorn in terms of support due to the underdog status and the interstate vs vic grand finals actual fall in favour to the travelling side. The squiggly lines then predict a cracking game.
If this is the score - I think my heart will blow out. Best re-visit my will during the week!
We've played at the venue 43 times since 2011 for 31 victories (7/12 losses were against the Cats), the Dockers have played at the venue 5 times in that time for a 2-3 record.
The venue will play a role...
Crowd impact is negligible (its an intangible that plays no result in matches) but if the 2012 GF was any indication Hawthorn will clearly have that advantage again
cough, simmonds stadium, cough.
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Typically because the traveling side has been the better performing worm.
The only such circumstances that the GF result has defied the worm would (I assume) be 1992, 1997-98 and 2012
Aside from that the non Victorian clubs have been typically the better side across the home & away season and finals series
A ground that is almost identical to Subiaco in dimensions, in a game where you allowed Geelong to have 27 scoring shots?
Despite winning the clearances by a margin of 43-22 you lost the inside 50 count 55-51 (no Hawkins). That said it was an admirable performance made even sweeter by the Cats kicking 9-18 for the day.
Like I said, home crowd advantage is largely over stated (though we'll probably have 30/35k supporters in the stadium Dockers 15/20k and the rest neutral) but familiarity with ground size plays an enormous role...particularly when such a large portion of Fremantle's game plan revolves around blocking and pressing the middle of largely narrow grounds.
In all the hype of the 2012 Grand Final its often forgotten that Hawthorn lost that game by 10 points, won the inside 50 count 61-43 and had 25 shots on goal to 21 despite Sydney landing something in the vicinity of 110 tackles. What relevance does that have to Saturday?
Sydney played the template game for a club like Fremantle to beat Hawthorn (that is a club without the offensive weapons of Geelong). Like Sydney, Fremantle must maximise its opportunities on goal (the Swans kicked 14-7, we kicked 11-15) and it must set a benchmark of 110 to 120 tackles for the game (evidently they had 68 tackles against Geelong and 75 against a depleted Swans outfit). The weather could play a role as well, at this stage the forecast is for a Shower or Two on Saturday...if the weather turns decidedly nasty (like last year) this could play into the Dockers hands like it did with the Swans last year.
Defensive pressure is incredibly important but the Dockers will probably need to kick 14-15 goals to win the match. That's my (biased) spin on it anyway
earthquake
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i thought i left Mr Squiggle behind many years ago .
So Mr Squiggle ( charts above ) predicts a Dockers win , damn
So Mr Squiggle ( charts above ) predicts a Dockers win , damn
Another interesting statistic is the Inside 50's across the Qualifying Finals/Preliminary Finals...
Hawthorn V Sydney: We won the Inside 50's 54-38
Geelong v Fremantle: Geelong won the Inside 50's 55-51
Hawthorn V Geelong: We won the Inside 50's 64-42
Fremantle V Sydney: Fremantle won the Inside 50's 42-39
Unless something dramatic occurs you'd expect Hawthorn to win the Inside 50's about 50/55 to 40/45. Whether or not Hawthorn's forward line functions or more to the point how the Fremantle backline functions could well determine the location of the premiership. Last year we won the Inside 50's 63-42 but didn't capitalise on our opportunities (we had 4 more scoring shots but tellingly our Inside 50/Goal ratio was 5.72 to Sydney's 3.07)
Hawthorn V Sydney: We won the Inside 50's 54-38
Geelong v Fremantle: Geelong won the Inside 50's 55-51
Hawthorn V Geelong: We won the Inside 50's 64-42
Fremantle V Sydney: Fremantle won the Inside 50's 42-39
Unless something dramatic occurs you'd expect Hawthorn to win the Inside 50's about 50/55 to 40/45. Whether or not Hawthorn's forward line functions or more to the point how the Fremantle backline functions could well determine the location of the premiership. Last year we won the Inside 50's 63-42 but didn't capitalise on our opportunities (we had 4 more scoring shots but tellingly our Inside 50/Goal ratio was 5.72 to Sydney's 3.07)
GF MCG is much more of a neutral ground than any H&A or Wk1-3 finals venue. With fixed club allocations and masses of corporate attendees, there's very little to separate beyond simple ground dimensions. It may be worth something for Hawthorn but I'd personally be ill-inclined to put anything behind it.
As per my post above. Crowd support is negligible for all fixtures, its the ground dimensions that makes all the difference
Evidently the mass corporate attendees make up about 32,000 of the 100,000 crowd. Upwards of 50% (and probably 60%) of attendees at GF's are supporters from either club when you take into consideration MCC and AFL members allocations.
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