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AFL Power Rankings 2014

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eth-dog said:
No, you see that Essendon had the run of the umpires, Hodge going down with injury and no Mitchell means that Hawthorn were at a severe disadvantage so they should have lost, ergo Essendon moves down to last
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Not to mention that because Essendon were so far behind at half time, we lost a lot of points for not being competitive when Roby thinks it counts.
 
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Well done on martingaling a profit this week on the back of the Saints win. I watched the last quarter and don't know how GWS managed to lose, just butchering endless opportunities in the forward 50 near the end.
 

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With round 2 done and dusted I'll put the Colley Rankings up once again. The Colley Rankings AREN'T a predictive system, more of an indicator of form and a "who's performed the best so far?" system. Nevertheless it 'tipped' 7 out of 9 winners this week which is a decent return. In saying that though there was only 2 different possible rankings for any given team and many tips were just the bookies favourites which begs the question why GWS were favourites over St.Kilda? Would have been 8 from 9 if it wasn't for this match but it could also be argued that GWS could have/should have won. Sydney vs Collingwood was the other incorrect tip. Here are the rankings as they stand after round 2:

W L D Ranking Ladder Pos. Movement
1. Fremantle 2 0 0 0.7647 2 (=)
2. Hawthorn 2 0 0 0.7232 5 (-1)
3. St.Kilda 2 0 0 0.7073 6 (-2)
4. Geelong 2 0 0 0.6697 4 (-3)
5. West Coast 2 0 0 0.6544 1 (-4)
6. Port Adelaide 2 0 0 0.6520 3 (-5)
7. Gold Coast 1 1 0 0.5558 11 (-6)
8. Essendon 1 1 0 0.5447 7 (-7)
9. Collingwood 1 1 0 0.5032 12 (+1)
10. GWS 1 1 0 0.4888 8 (-9)
11. Richmond 1 1 0 0.4583 9 (-1)
12. North Melbourne 1 1 0 0.4556 10 (-2)
13. Brisbane 0 2 0 0.3482 15 (-3)
14. Melbourne 0 2 0 0.3405 18 (-4)
15. Adelaide 0 2 0 0.3304 16 (-5)
16. Carlton 0 2 0 0.2776 13 (-6)
17. W. Bulldogs 0 2 0 0.2775 17 (-7)
18. Sydney 0 2 0 0.2480 14 (-8)

Lots of teams moving 'down' the rankings this week but that's due to the fact that all teams were either ranked 1st or 10th last week. It's interesting to see the discrepancies with the AFL ladder and that the teams have merged into 3 groups of 6. St.Kilda's, Melbourne's and Sydney's positions seem the most interesting to me. However, St.Kilda has had a statistically harder run so far than Geelong, West Coast and Port Adelaide. St.Kilda has played against a 1-1 and a 0-2 team where the other three teams have only played against 0-2 teams. Similar situation for Melbourne where both teams that they've played against have been undefeated so far. The two teams that Sydney played against lost there other match. You could probably make an argument for them to be the worst performed team so far anyway if it wasn't for Melbourne.

Round 3 tips. Unlike last week there are no teams even on points which allow 'tips' to be made:

Fremantle to beat Hawthorn
Richmond to beat W.Bulldogs
Adelaide to beat Sydney (upset)
Gold Coast to beat Brisbane
St.Kilda to beat West Coast (huge upset)
Geelong to beat Collingwood
GWS to beat Melbourne
Port Adelaide to beat North Melbourne
Essendon to beat Carlton

The rankings have ranked 2 teams in better form than there counterparts in contrast with the bookies so far (Fremantle is currently favourite even at the MCG). I very much doubt St.Kilda will beat West Coast at Pattersons. Other than that this round shapes up as tough to pick with some genuine 50/50s in Frem/Haw, Adel/Syd and some very close to 50/50's in Rich/WB, Coll/Geel, PA/NM and Ess/Carl. I'll be happy with 7 out of 9 again, especially considering the St.Kilda tip.
 
swiftdog, have you ran the Colley system through all of last seasons matches to see what sort of results it gives?

Or rather, train it on 2012 data, and run it though 2013 data and checked the classification rate (or binomial deviance if you're stats/mathematically inclined)
 
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Crankyhawk said:
For round 2

Carry over profit $1.21 (so am already behind Roby in total $)
Outlay so far $5 (24.2% return)

Richmond $1.68 WIN
Essendon $2.90 LOSS (although sportsbet money back guarantee)
St Kilda $1.91 (have GWS ever been even money before?) WIN
Port $1.67 WIN
Freo $1.10 WIN
Sydney $1.43 LOSS
Brisbane $3.60 LOSS
Melbourne $6.50 LOSS
Bulldogs $2.90
Click to expand...
LOSS

$1.68 + 1.91 + 1.67 + 1.10 = $6.36 so loss of $2.64 (not counting moneyback guarantee)

Running total = loss of $1.43 (about 10% loss on accumulated outlay of $14)
 


The power rankings are not about betting


But they have more than doubled the weekly betting stake in just two weeks. At this rate it's projected to generate huge amounts of profits for 2014 and increase the original stake from 2011 to over 1000%. With that out of the way the focus is back on the rankings.


No news is good news


Not many positional changes in the rankings this week only the Lions (15th) drop and they start another year abysmally. Brisbane played Hawthorn (2nd) and Geelong (3rd) in the first two weeks and they have shown they are a long way off a premiership. Even though they both lost ranking points on the weekend, Essendon (13th) and Carlton (14th) move up a spot each because of the Lions dropping two places.


There is bad news


The bad news is the umpiring has reverted back to woeful. Maybe round one was just a tease and now you'll have to put up with the crap inconsistency again. It just means the rankings will make more money with the umpiring weighting corrections. The Eagles (12th) and Bombers are last (means most favoured) on the Umpiring Table, followed by Carlton and Fremantle (1st).


The calm before the storm


While there was only a few changes in the rankings this week expect in the upcoming weeks something resembling snakes and ladders from the Swans (5th) all the way down to the GWS (17th) who are all relatively close on points. Melbourne (18th) is not only last, they have the biggest gap in the rankings from the next team and they also scored the first zero for competitiveness and languish last also on the Overall Competitiveness Table. Of course the rankings could be 100% correct and we see no changes.


Grand final replay


There will be match reviews later tomorrow, but Hawthorn v Fremantle game could prove significant. At this stage the Dockers are expected to get up by a goal with the Hawks outs, so the Hawks could still lose by a point at home and still finish on top of the rankings; and that would have significant impact on the rankings and the rest of the comp. Also a thrashing to either team could prove to be permanently debilitating in the race for the 2014 premiership, provided the umpiring is fair.




2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 2

1 Fremantle (-)
2 Hawthorn (-)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Adelaide (-)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Gold Coast (-)
7 Kangaroos (-)
8 Richmond (-)
9 Port Adelaide (-)
10 Collingwood (-)
11 St Kilda (-)
12 West Coast (-)
13 Essendon (+1)
14 Carlton (+1)
15 Brisbane (-2)
16 Bulldogs (-)
17 GWS (-)
18 Melbourne (-)



7-Of-9-joins-Starfleet-star-trek-voyager-4003792-564-605.jpg


Seven of Nine

The rankings did better at predicting the margin than the betting market in seven of the nine games last week, and of the ten betting tips last week, eight come up (a power ranking record), including the biggest ever bet in rankings history on St Kilda for the win. This represents the biggest gain in rankings history in one week and the reason why weekly betting tips profit is at already at 128%.

Last week's bets.

Current fund: $22.45
Total staked for 2014: $15.85

2014 tip tally: 12/18

Last week's rankings.
 

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Roby said:
Essendon (14th) vs Hawthorn (2nd)


Many were impressed by the Bombers display against North last week, not these rankings. The Bombers have only won two of their last seven home and away games, and while some think that last year doesn't matter, you will see that it does. If they are good they will back it up with a good performance against the reigning premiers, even if they get within a kick that might just be enough send them to 9th position but the Hawks should win easily.
Click to expand...

No, 4pt loss will see them go to 13th.
 
Bunk Moreland said:
Is Roby now trolling himself?
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I'm sure he will let us know how the umpires didn't get a decision right all night and that Hodge got injured. Some how Ryder getting injured improved Essendon and because they were down by a 30 odd point margin early (apparently this is the only time it counts) they should have lost by more.

I think I could almost write this thing.
 
St Kilda beat GWS by 7 points but should have lost...
West Coast beat Melbourne by 93 points away from home.
St Kilda still stay above West Coast? I know which team I fear more and it isn't St Kilda.
 
Its probably due to the fact that it takes time to change your reflective position.

Roby should have manually adjusted numbers to start the year rather than just using last seasons final numbers.

West Coast were wayyyy down last year due to massive horrendous injury run but should comfortably sit top 8 with a healthy squad. West Coast should shadow the Saints by 40 this week. Don't need no Power Rankings to tell that.
 

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1. freo
2. hawks
3. geelong
4. port
5. wce
6. ess
7. Richmond
8. Collingwood
9. Sydney
10. carlton
11. adelaide
12. gold coast
13. Brisbane
14. st kilda
15. north
16. gws
17. bulldogs
18. Melbourne

anyone want to ditch this suckers power rankings and come subscribe to mine for $20/week? most powerful metric I use is common sense.
 
Most neutrals in the match thread said essendon were getting bent over by the umpires in the first half.

Roby proves them wrong.
 
Brilliant as always:

"Richmond (8th) vs Carlton (15th)

Both teams have had the week off to think about their past transgressions, so it really depends on who you think will do their head in more on who not to tip. Probably both equally but Carlton is missing too many key players and it's going to cost them. Richmond are also the better team, so this should all equate to a 20 point win to the Tigers. Both teams are out of premiership contention but at least the Tigers can still make the finals, that is unless they lose tonight and it's starts a uncontrollable spiral of death.

Essendon (14th) vs Hawthorn (2nd)

Many were impressed by the Bombers display against North last week, not these rankings. The Bombers have only won two of their last seven home and away games, and while some think that last year doesn't matter, you will see that it does. If they are good they will back it up with a good performance against the reigning premiers, even if they get within a kick that might just be enough send them to 9th position but the Hawks should win easily."

Nek minnit:

"Even though they both lost ranking points on the weekend, Essendon (13th) and Carlton (14th) move up a spot each because of the Lions dropping two places."

So, Hawks to win easily, Essendon to maybe move up if they get within a kick, Richmond to win by 20 because they are the better team, yet Essendon and Carlton both lose points when they perform better than the "rankings" dictated.

The question I have is not for Roby, but the Mods. Why is this troll thread allowed to flourish on the main board when all others are either moved to Bay13 or closed?
 
Dave said:
Brilliant as always:

"Richmond (8th) vs Carlton (15th)

Both teams have had the week off to think about their past transgressions, so it really depends on who you think will do their head in more on who not to tip. Probably both equally but Carlton is missing too many key players and it's going to cost them. Richmond are also the better team, so this should all equate to a 20 point win to the Tigers. Both teams are out of premiership contention but at least the Tigers can still make the finals, that is unless they lose tonight and it's starts a uncontrollable spiral of death.

Essendon (14th) vs Hawthorn (2nd)

Many were impressed by the Bombers display against North last week, not these rankings. The Bombers have only won two of their last seven home and away games, and while some think that last year doesn't matter, you will see that it does. If they are good they will back it up with a good performance against the reigning premiers, even if they get within a kick that might just be enough send them to 9th position but the Hawks should win easily."

Nek minnit:

"Even though they both lost ranking points on the weekend, Essendon (13th) and Carlton (14th) move up a spot each because of the Lions dropping two places."

So, Hawks to win easily, Essendon to maybe move up if they get within a kick, Richmond to win by 20 because they are the better team, yet Essendon and Carlton both lose points when they perform better than the "rankings" dictated.

The question I have is not for Roby, but the Mods. Why is this troll thread allowed to flourish on the main board when all others are either moved to Bay13 or closed?
Click to expand...

Effort. You've gotta hand it to him.
 

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