AFL R5

[GROTTO]

Another round begins earlier -


Thursday, April 17 VENUE EST
Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond The Gabba 7.50pm $3.20 $1.33
Saturday, April 19
Collingwood vs. North Melbourne MCG 1.40pm $1.90 $1.85
Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle SCG 4.40pm $2.15 $1.68
Essendon vs. St Kilda Etihad Stadium 7.40pm $1.10 $6.60
West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Patersons Stadium 7.40pm $1.80 $1.95
Sunday, April 20
Adelaide Crows vs. GWS GIANTS Adelaide Oval 1.10pm $1.27 $3.65
Melbourne vs. Gold Coast SUNS MCG 3.20pm $3.50 $1.28
Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Etihad Stadium 4.40pm $1.47 $2.60
Monday, April 21
Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn MCG 3.20pm $2.55 $1.50

Chism if you could place a sticky on this and close the other thanks.

 

[Anzac16]

Some early thoughts.

• Like Richmond at the line of -19.5 against Brisbane. Lions are decimated with injuries/suspensions. Richmond should bounce back after a disappointing effort Friday night. Brisbane also a 5 day turn around coming back from Adelaide will hurt them.
  
• Port at $1.95 over WC. Port are such a classy team and this will be a big test of where they are truly at. WC really struggling with injuries and suspensions as well at the moment. Can see Port winning this one in big fashion. Even though teams struggle over in the west, I think Port's class and the injuries for WC will get Port over the line.
• Essendon -45.5 against St.Kilda. Crows smashed the Saints today and Essendon are a far better team as it stands. Performed poorly against Freo and will want to bounce back. Chapman, Fletcher, Ryder and Myres could all return for them with Goddard in doubt (reckon they will rest him for Anzac Day).

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Very early but Freo @ $1.68 and Port @ $1.95 look good to me.

Doggies @ $1.47 looks a nice bet with how the Blues are playing, anybody know Carlton's record at etihad ?

 

[Anzac16]

Very early but Freo @ $1.68 and Port @ $1.95 look good to me.

Doggies @ $1.47 looks a nice bet with how the Blues are playing, anybody know Carlton's record at etihad ?

0-1 so far this year. 5-5 last year, 3-6 in 2012, 5-4 in 2011, 3-6 in 2010. We always seem to play badly there and have a habit of losing to worse teams. 2-3 against the Dogs there in the last 5 years. The way the Dogs are playing at the moment compared to the way we are playing, they deserve to be favourites. Think 1.47 is about right for them though. Might come into 1.40 throughout the week

 

[Reluctant Jim]

My 2 cents. Not particularly insightful cause I've largely opted for favourites but IMO its that sort of round and it'll serve as a springboard for you lot to tear my logic and punts to pieces.

Lions v rich. Looks like a no bet for me. Too many injuries for me to take lions and richmond are haphazard. Rich will win IMO but for 1.33 meh.

Collingwood v NM. Will have to wait for teams to be sure. But will probably get on NM (maybe 1-39). Colling haven't beaten anyone flash and NM beating port shows they got it.

Swans v freo: getting on freo hard, that price will come in for sure

Dons v saints. I have a feeling the dons will take this by 100. My beloved saints

West v port:as the odds suggest as close to a fiftyfifty game as you'll get. I think ports attacking power mean WCE are doomed, but WA is a strange old place.

crows will win comfortably IMO, will gaze at the line after teams announced

Melb v suns: obviously suns

Wbd v Carlton: hopefully someone else has thoughts about this. Wbd did well against Richmond so will probably end up just taking them h2h.

Hawks....

 

[banana_bus]

Very early but Freo @ $1.68 and Port @ $1.95 look good to me.

I'm with you here, Freo and Port the two best bets at the moment.

I don't like betting big on teams away from home though, so this will be a quiet weekend.

 

[ricardogp]

I'm with port and Freo as well. Eagles still expected to be without Hurn, LeCras and Masten,and possibly Glass.

Freo are 2-1-1 in their last 4 at the SCG, and they really should have won the game they drew last year (in my opinion).

I expect both those to move, so I'll be taking the line on each.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[Anzac16]

Bet 365 have got their odds up. Some great odds!

• Freo SU @ $2.00
  
• Port SU @ $2.10 and +4.5 @ $1.91
• Richmond -16.5 @ $1.91

 

[ricardogp]

Jeez that's good. Better than what I just got at SportsBet!

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[Anzac16]

Just took

2U - Fremantle SU @ $2.00 (Bet 365)
1U - Port Adelaide SU @ $2.10 (Bet 365)
1U - Richmond -16.5 @ $1.91 (Bet 365)

Can't believe those H2H odds. So tempting to load up on those. Freo will drop to $1.70 by the weekend I reckon and Port to $1.80. Line for Richmond surely has to move out.

 

[Atley]

Port are absolutely delicious

surely they start favourites

 

[banana_bus]

Just took

2U - Fremantle SU @ $2.00 (Bet 365)
1U - Port Adelaide SU @ $2.10 (Bet 365)
1U - Richmond -16.5 @ $1.91 (Bet 365)

Can't believe those H2H odds. So tempting to load up on those. Freo will drop to $1.70 by the weekend I reckon and Port to $1.80. Line for Richmond surely has to move out.

Freo already into 1.75 there.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Bet365 setting some amusing lines here.

 

[Anzac16]

Freo already into 1.75 there.

Not surprised especially when Sportsbet had them at $1.68. Sydney are looking terrible this year.

 

[X_box_X]

I actually reckon Carlton will start shorter than $2.50, so getting on them now at $2.80 is smart if you're thinking that way. Odds are going to drift when Libba gets suspended, and it is announced that Morris is out.

That isn't even including the ins for Carlton. Likely to be Waite and Robinson for a start. How about Judd?

 

[Hitout1]

hey guys Im new to this. won a little last week tipping the roos so hoping to keep growing the money.

Is the whole point of betting early, on odds you expect to change?

So if you got freo @ $2 now, and later in the week sydney drift out to $2.50, can you make it that you cant possibly lose money, (unless a draw obv)?

Just new to this so advice would be appreciated! Im getting on fremantle anyway. I dont rate sydney this year.

Fremantle +40
Essendon +40 multi @ approx $10

 

[yamahamoto]

I actually reckon Carlton will start shorter than $2.50, so getting on them now at $2.80 is smart if you're thinking that way. Odds are going to drift when Libba gets suspended, and it is announced that Morris is out.

That isn't even including the ins for Carlton. Likely to be Waite and Robinson for a start. How about Judd?

Warnock got reported so might wait for that as well. Carlton could be playing with out a real ruckman against Minson.

 

[Big Jono]

Richmond 40+
Freo 40+
Port 40+

$20 @ $124.42 (Sportsbet)

 

[Lensen]

Warnock got reported so might wait for that as well. Carlton could be playing with out a real ruckman against Minson.

Umm

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Both Port and North look good at $2. Freo should win comfortably and are well over the odds imo

 

[Keystone agony]

I agree Freo at 1.73, Port @2, North@2 look like good bets.

Also Hawks overs for me at 1.57 we all know the history but things are different this time. Mackie is also out. Hawks are strong and might even get Mcevoy, Lake back.

Early multi
North, Port, Hawks, Freo win and (Dons -14.5) @13 1U

1U Syd/Freo score total under 170.5

 

[kainomac]

Is the whole point of betting early, on odds you expect to change?

So if you got freo @ $2 now, and later in the week sydney drift out to $2.50, can you make it that you cant possibly lose money, (unless a draw obv)?quote]

Generally it's to take advantage of value on odds before they tighten (eg get freo now for $2 rather than 1.68 by next week).
Also with your theory, you can only do the whole 'not lose your money' if you can get both sides at least $2 h2h, which isn't too common unless there's a major change.

 

[Lensen]

you definitely don't need >$2 odds on both sides to "not lose money"

 

[Aed0s]

Brisbane v. Richmond:
Brisbane to lose Hanley and Leueunberger. Already no Rich. Hampered by injuries.
Richmond perhaps still without Deledio. Cotchin should bounce back.
The initial (-17.5) is already moving out a little bit. Surely Richmond can beat the injury prone Lions by more than 3 goals.
Lions 0-4.
Collingwood v. North Melbourne:
Staying away from this one at the moment. Both in very good form.
Unpredictable, but swaying towards North Melbourne.

Sydney v. Fremantle:
Fremantle should see Fyfe returning.
Odds for Fremantle have come down considerably.
The line is moving out quickly.
Currently at (-5.5) @1.92 (Sportsbet). Can't get better than this at the moment I don't think.

Essendon v. St Kilda:
Essendon hampered by injury concerns against Fremantle.
Should see Fletcher, Myers, Goddard, Chapman return.
St Kilda destroyed by Adelaide.
Surely Essendon can give them a 50 point+ thumping if Adelaide did.
(-44.5) line looks tasty right about now.

Adelaide v. GWS:
Adelaide genuinely looked the goods against St Kilda.
Mumford in doubt.
Line currently at (-28.5), might get onto it later.

West Coast v. Port Adelaide:
West Coast disappointing against Geelong.
Injury concerns still hampering West Coast - not sure yet who'll be returning for them this week.
Port Adelaide fantastic against Brisbane.
Injuries to Monfries and Wingard didn't phase them.
Got on when Port were @2.15, now they're hovering around $2. I see this decreasing throughout the week depending on the nature of the Eagles injury concerns.

Melbourne v. Gold Coast:
Melbourne strong against Carlton.
Gold Coast disappointing against a strong Hawthorn opposition.
Hopefully GC can bounce back.
Not sure about this one but I may take the current (-22.5) line.

Western Bulldogs v. Carlton:
Carlton in very poor form.
Bulldogs with the exciting win against GWS.
Carlton @2.80 (bet365) looks enticing if they can find some form.

Geelong v. Hawthorn:
Both played outstanding last week.
However, I'm leaning towards Hawthorn.
But Geelong do provide some value @2.70.

1U - Port Adelaide H2H @2.15
1U - Fremantle (-5.5) @1.92
1U - Essendon (-44.5) @1.92
1U - Richmond (-17.5) @1.92

 

[laam]

agree on the freo talk
2u freo @ 1.79