- Oct 11, 2012
- 3,879
- 6,038
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
A while ago we all believed that teams rose and fell ladder positions on a slow cyclic rotation. You know how it has been in the past, Hawthorn and St.Kilda crap for a number of years before rising to the top, Essendon and Carlton going the opposite way over the same period.
Been thinking about whether it's still possible for lowly clubs to rebuild and move up the ladder. I'm thinking that it's no longer possible as the cycle has been broken due to four recent things, two extra teams diluting draft picks, free agency strengthening current strong clubs, free agency compo picks diluting draft picks, abolishion of compo picks for poor performing teams.
To strengthen your list you need to add better than average players at a much faster rate than you lose them to retirement. On average a team will lose two of their best 22 each year that's a team every 11 years.
In the good old days you could finish bottom, get pick 1 for having a poor year, pick 2 as the wooden spooner, pick 18 as your second rounder, pick 34 as your third rounder. Have another bad year and you could reap the same picks. A nice boost for your side.
Finish last now and you get pick 1, probably with FA compo picks, pick 21, pick 40. No where near as potent is it. Another spoon and you do it again but no where near potent enough to offset the four best 22 that retire in those years.
So all those factors plus the rise of the talent laden expansion sides has me thinking that teams like St.Kilda (3 of it's best 4 players are over 30), Brisbane (coming from too far back after last years gutting), Carlton (mostly it's best players are ageing, few kids coming on), Bulldogs (ageing best players, not enough kids really stepping up) are in for an extended stay at the bottom. Just can't see how they can add enough class players to even cover losses let alone cover retirements.
Really worried about the future.
Been thinking about whether it's still possible for lowly clubs to rebuild and move up the ladder. I'm thinking that it's no longer possible as the cycle has been broken due to four recent things, two extra teams diluting draft picks, free agency strengthening current strong clubs, free agency compo picks diluting draft picks, abolishion of compo picks for poor performing teams.
To strengthen your list you need to add better than average players at a much faster rate than you lose them to retirement. On average a team will lose two of their best 22 each year that's a team every 11 years.
In the good old days you could finish bottom, get pick 1 for having a poor year, pick 2 as the wooden spooner, pick 18 as your second rounder, pick 34 as your third rounder. Have another bad year and you could reap the same picks. A nice boost for your side.
Finish last now and you get pick 1, probably with FA compo picks, pick 21, pick 40. No where near as potent is it. Another spoon and you do it again but no where near potent enough to offset the four best 22 that retire in those years.
So all those factors plus the rise of the talent laden expansion sides has me thinking that teams like St.Kilda (3 of it's best 4 players are over 30), Brisbane (coming from too far back after last years gutting), Carlton (mostly it's best players are ageing, few kids coming on), Bulldogs (ageing best players, not enough kids really stepping up) are in for an extended stay at the bottom. Just can't see how they can add enough class players to even cover losses let alone cover retirements.
Really worried about the future.