Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Quad22]

BUMP, Hate not seeing the squiggle on the front page.

Tips for round 15:

Geelong 84 - 79 Essendon

Hawthorn 128 - 78 Gold Coast

St Kilda 61 - 99 Richmond

Fremantle 89 - 59 West Coast

Brisbane Lions 65 - 107 North Melbourne

Sydney 124 - 58 Greater Western Sydney

Western Bulldogs 83 - 76 Melbourne

Adelaide 81 - 100 Port Adelaide

Collingwood 102 - 74 Carlton

Apologies for my ignorance as I only just stumbled upon this thread, but are these predictions (with the anticipated scores) somehow gathered from the squiggle, or did you devise them with the squiggle as your guide? Either way, impressive accuracy apart from the two anomalies this week

 

[mattis117]

Apologies for my ignorance as I only just stumbled upon this thread, but are these predictions (with the anticipated scores) somehow gathered from the squiggle, or did you devise them with the squiggle as your guide? Either way, impressive accuracy apart from the two anomalies this week

The formula for calculating the tips is detailed in the explanation at the bottom of the page.

It is Predicted score = 85 x (teamoffensivescore/oppositiondefensivescore) +/- home ground advantage (6 points)

To explain the last bit - if you are calculating the home team add 6, if the away team, subtract 6. This only applies to teams travelling interstate. So for say Collingwood vs Carlton at the MCG, the last part would be removed because there is no home ground advantage.

 

[clogged]

Round 15, 2014​

Interactive squiggle!


Priority Picks: Winners and Losers

This week I thought I'd have a look at the other end of the ladder. Since the draft was revamped in 1997, there have been 18 start-of-first-round Priority Draft picks awarded. (I think. Sources differ. But I think this is right.)

Here is where each Priority Pick recipient sat when they received their bounty. I've also added red crosses for teams that finished very low but didn't get a PP, at least not a pre-round-1 one.

Pre-Round 1 Priority Picks 1997-2013

I was surprised by how many red crosses Melbourne have: five out of 13 here, or 5/10 if you exclude the expansion teams. Popular perception is that the Demons have had a lot of priority picks. And while it's true that only Carlton has received more, the Demons have occupied disaster zone territory far more often than anyone else.

Interesting that the pattern of losing teams being very bad offensively is only a new thing. It's a given that they'd be subpar defensively (almost all below 50 in defence). But only a handful pre-2011 had very bad offence.

Obviously this is an effect of the expansion sides, but it's difficult to explain why.

 

[estibador]

Interesting that the pattern of losing teams being very bad offensively is only a new thing. It's a given that they'd be subpar defensively (almost all below 50 in defence). But only a handful pre-2011 had very bad offence.

Obviously this is an effect of the expansion sides, but it's difficult to explain why.

Perhaps a result of most teams being more focused on defence than they used to be so they keep the worst teams to lower scores?

 

[Quad22]

The formula for calculating the tips is detailed in the explanation at the bottom of the page.

It is Predicted score = 85 x (teamoffensivescore/oppositiondefensivescore) +/- home ground advantage (6 points)

To explain the last bit - if you are calculating the home team add 6, if the away team, subtract 6. This only applies to teams travelling interstate. So for say Collingwood vs Carlton at the MCG, the last part would be removed because there is no home ground advantage.

Thanks mate, appreciate it

 

[The Swans Blog]

ROUND 16 TIPS

North Melbourne 81 - 98 Hawthorn

Richmond 102 - 59 Brisbane Lions

Greater Western Sydney 79 - 108 Adelaide

Gold Coast 84 - 88 Collingwood

Port Adelaide 103 - 69 Essendon

Melbourne 52 - 86 Fremantle

Carlton 105 - 76 St Kilda

West Coast 71 - 89 Sydney

Geelong 121 - 67 Western Bulldogs

I think GCS will get the win and I'm confident that the Swans will thump WCE.

 

[beert]

Just noticed that the squiggle is predicting

Port Adelaide 83 - 82 Sydney

in round 20. That would be a cracking game! I can't wait.

 

[Roobs321]

I would take a 3 goal loss to Sydney.

 

[mattis117]

Just noticed that the squiggle is predicting

Port Adelaide 83 - 82 Sydney

in round 20. That would be a cracking game! I can't wait.

Are Port showing the effects of a long season? I think they have dropped away slightly and will lose a few games in the run home. They will likely finish 4th (which is actually where the squiggle predicts they finish as well). Wouldn't be surprised if Sydney get up by a few goals.

 

[mattis117]

Round 20 is going to be epic! 4 Games predicted to be decided by less than 1 goal and another 3 expected to be decent games. Only the North and Hawks games look to be blowouts.

 

[Roobs321]

I don't think they have necessarily dropped off. The consensus has generally been that they caught a few teams at a good time, plus also have the tendency to only beat teams in the last quarter.

They might have recently lost to a few good sides in close-ish games, but no reason to expect a late season collapse. They just don't dominate the field, they aren't the ruthless minor premier runaway type, so they will lose the odd game.

 

[Inferno]

Round 20 is going to be epic! 4 Games predicted to be decided by less than 1 goal and another 3 expected to be decent games. Only the North and Hawks games look to be blowouts.

4 matches by less than a goal? Try 5 matches by less than a goal - 4 of them by 1 point!!

Port vs Sydney and Geelong vs Freo would have to be one of the best Saturday night doubles in a long, long time! Unfortunate that they're being played at the same time...

 

[mattis117]

4 matches by less than a goal? Try 5 matches by less than a goal - 4 of them by 1 point!!

Port vs Sydney and Geelong vs Freo would have to be one of the best Saturday night doubles in a long, long time! Unfortunate that they're being played at the same time...

Ah I initially had 5 then checked it and must have checked it wrong.

Imagine if the Hawks were scheduled to play North and Melbourne were scheduled to play GWS in round 20, it would have been the perfect round of footy.

 

[Final Siren]

Round 20 is going to be epic! 4 Games predicted to be decided by less than 1 goal and another 3 expected to be decent games. Only the North and Hawks games look to be blowouts.

Don't put it past North to go down by 1 pt to GWS!

 

[thefreodockers]

How will the squiggle moniter the return of Anthony 'The Beast' Morabito?

Could he be to the squiggle what Neo was to the Matrix?

 

[Wylin Dreams]

Pretty interesting that the Swans are right near their 2012 premiership winning side (and they were even closer a couple of weeks ago); the Hawks are on their 2013 squiggle and Freo is on the squiggle of the 'ugly duckling' Swans of 2005

 

[Billy ray]

So much love for this thread. It's actually more entertaining, more fun, more interesting than the games themselves...

 

[PattoMan99]

Apologies for my ignorance as I only just stumbled upon this thread, but are these predictions (with the anticipated scores) somehow gathered from the squiggle, or did you devise them with the squiggle as your guide? Either way, impressive accuracy apart from the two anomalies this week

Reality adapts to the squiggle. The squiggle rules all.

 

[thefreodockers]

North really hating on the Squiggle so far.

 

[clogged]

Hawthorn go out of the squiggle's grand final contention with that loss.

 

[Augustine]

I'm a grown man but I'm obsessed with this squiggly line. I didn't want to look at this thread after last week but can't wait to see what it does after our 20 point win over the hawks.

 

[d33my]

I'm a grown man but I'm obsessed with this squiggly line. I didn't want to look at this thread after last week but can't wait to see what it does after our 20 point win over the hawks.

No need to wait - it's updated live! Enjoy
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Dear Mr Squiggle,

You might be better off leaving North's games out of the equation.

Yours in bewildered frustration,
Howard Littlejohn.

 

[The_Steadier]

My feeling about the squiggle's major flaw is that it won't pick up a team that lifts to the occasion.
The squiggle assumes that everybody is trying as hard as everybody else.

Inversely the squiggle doesn't account for the tanking that is due to occur, but not be acknowledged by HQ, around this time of year.

 

[Clems Knee]

I'm loving the squiggle tonight.