Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

After Geelong's festival of 100+ point wins and ever increasing scorelines (starting Rd 6 where Geelong lost 163-171 to the Hawks), following three 100+ point wins in succession were then followed by consecutive defensive smashings of at that stage the second placed Bombers and Dees, where those sides were held to 35 and 20 points respectively. Hence after Rd 12, the gargantuan leap to the right axis. Geelong did have three further losses late that year, to the Pies, Dees and Eagles who all scored 100+ against the Cats, and then that QF where Essendon smashed Geelong by 13 goals.

1992 was even higher scoring for the Cats, and yet again, after the early-mid season scoring binge a few defeats sullied the waters, with Geelong coughing up some big numbers. Crows by 92 points late in the year would have knocked the squiggle back big time, like this year's smashing at the hands of Sydney. Fascinating to see these seasons in squiggle terms.

ON another note, i checked the 1976 season, and it was noteworthy for no club really getting into contemporary Flag territory. The Blues were in the best zone, but they went out in straight sets that year. The Hawks GF win saw them land in a zone that is rather short of even the Crows 1998 flag. Given it was a very even season, it may be argued it was a relatively 'weak' sort of year, without any genuine dominant power club.

Great observations. That 1976 season is incredibly even. According to Wikipedia, Collingwood's 6 wins are the most ever by a wooden spoon team.

If you combined the 1976 ladder with the 2013 ladder (after home & away), 2013 teams would fill all top 3 and bottom 3 slots.

 

[DNine]

I think it is important that as a supporter of any club, you can look at the lines and read where they are going. So in saying that, I looked around for the Pies, and smack bang on the top is Adelaide, and I see a squiggly line coming out the left side that is Black, so I figure that is what I am looking at, but you had already lost me because the logo was underneath there somewhere, so I figure I can get the same info from the ladder saying we are eighth on the ladder, we were looking better earlier, and fell away, then won again so are a little bit more on track than last week. If we beat Eagles and Crows lose to North, we can lose against Hawks last week and still make it, if Crows beat North, we may have to beat Hawks to make it, so far less likely. As easy as that. Not sure I need sqiggly lines for that. But I respect your commitment to the idea, but not your lack of care that the Pies logo showed up under the Crows. If anything, for the time being, Crows logo should be under ours. 5/10

 

[KillaKanga]

I think it is important that as a supporter of any club, you can look at the lines and read where they are going. So in saying that, I looked around for the Pies, and smack bang on the top is Adelaide, and I see a squiggly line coming out the left side that is Black, so I figure that is what I am looking at, but you had already lost me because the logo was underneath there somewhere, so I figure I can get the same info from the ladder saying we are eighth on the ladder, we were looking better earlier, and fell away, then won again so are a little bit more on track than last week. If we beat Eagles and Crows lose to North, we can lose against Hawks last week and still make it, if Crows beat North, we may have to beat Hawks to make it, so far less likely. As easy as that. Not sure I need sqiggly lines for that. But I respect your commitment to the idea, but not your lack of care that the Pies logo showed up under the Crows. If anything, for the time being, Crows logo should be under ours. 5/10

So you're upset that another teams logo is overlapped over the Pies one? and so the squiggle is worry and unnecessary?

I've seen posters banned for less.

There's so much more to the squiggle than just ladder position.

North last year were losing the close ones but the squiggle had them as a top 3 scoring team but 8th in defense. Meaning they really should have played finals (a top 8 quality team) but screwed themselves with losses by under 10 points.

 

[Engimal]

I think it is important that as a supporter of any club, you can look at the lines and read where they are going. So in saying that, I looked around for the Pies, and smack bang on the top is Adelaide, and I see a squiggly line coming out the left side that is Black, so I figure that is what I am looking at, but you had already lost me because the logo was underneath there somewhere, so I figure I can get the same info from the ladder saying we are eighth on the ladder, we were looking better earlier, and fell away, then won again so are a little bit more on track than last week. If we beat Eagles and Crows lose to North, we can lose against Hawks last week and still make it, if Crows beat North, we may have to beat Hawks to make it, so far less likely. As easy as that. Not sure I need sqiggly lines for that. But I respect your commitment to the idea, but not your lack of care that the Pies logo showed up under the Crows. If anything, for the time being, Crows logo should be under ours. 5/10

Collingwood supporters in a nutshell.

 

[Final Siren]

I think it is important that as a supporter of any club, you can look at the lines and read where they are going. So in saying that, I looked around for the Pies, and smack bang on the top is Adelaide, and I see a squiggly line coming out the left side that is Black, so I figure that is what I am looking at, but you had already lost me because the logo was underneath there somewhere, so I figure I can get the same info from the ladder saying we are eighth on the ladder, we were looking better earlier, and fell away, then won again so are a little bit more on track than last week. If we beat Eagles and Crows lose to North, we can lose against Hawks last week and still make it, if Crows beat North, we may have to beat Hawks to make it, so far less likely. As easy as that. Not sure I need sqiggly lines for that. But I respect your commitment to the idea, but not your lack of care that the Pies logo showed up under the Crows. If anything, for the time being, Crows logo should be under ours. 5/10

I think you are looking at the very first post in this thread, i.e. the 2013 squiggle. But you are right that it gets hard to see WTF is going on with some teams, especially later in the season, and especially those in the middle.

Not sure I agree Collingwood should always go on top of Adelaide, but there is a problem where the lines of one team can go over the logo of another, which I would fix if I could. Unfortunately that appears to be a limitation of the software I use.

The interactive squiggle allows you to banish teams that displease you from the chart and play through the season from Round 1, which may make things easier to see.

 

[DNine]

So you're upset that another teams logo is overlapped over the Pies one? and so the squiggle is worry and unnecessary?

I've seen posters banned for less.

There's so much more to the squiggle than just ladder position.

North last year were losing the close ones but the squiggle had them as a top 3 scoring team but 8th in defense. Meaning they really should have played finals (a top 8 quality team) but screwed themselves with losses by under 10 points.

Are you for real. I had an opinion that it wasn't clear where the Collingwood line went, as it was overlapped, and you reckon I should be banned for that. My god, the scary thing with that comment is you are serious. LOL

 

[DNine]

Collingwood supporters in a nutshell.

ALL fans in a nutshell, if there is a graph, they want to be able to understand it. In a nutshell is all other teams have a fair number of supporters hate a club more than loving of their own.

I'll keep loving my club more so than hating others, and not caring what team other supporters barrack for, because I would feel incredibly simple to think that the team that one supporters changes ones outlook on the game, or reflect on their attitude.

 

[DNine]

Not sure I agree Collingwood should always go on top of Adelaide

Nor do I, but at this moment, we are above Adelaide, so I was thinking if anyone should be over the top of the other, it should be the other way around. But did look at it as it was a recent thing, and to know it wasn't clears things up, but not that first graph, which is what I was commenting on.

 

[KillaKanga]

Are you for real. I had an opinion that it wasn't clear where the Collingwood line went, as it was overlapped, and you reckon I should be banned for that. My god, the scary thing with that comment is you are serious. LOL

Jeeper champ, if you think someone really thinks you should be banned for not understanding the squiggle, you're taking BF too seriously.

Relax and enjoy the squiggle. Just think maybe by the end of the weekend the Pies logo will uncover itself. Good luck

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Are you for real. I had an opinion that it wasn't clear where the Collingwood line went, as it was overlapped, and you reckon I should be banned for that. My god, the scary thing with that comment is you are serious. LOL

It was a joke. And North was hidden under Geelong for ages (wish we still were sticking that close to them).

All hail the squiggle!

 

[Rushed_Behind]

What are the squiggles tips this week?

Got the rent due and foxtel bill in arrears.

Cheers

 

[DNine]

Jeeper champ, if you think someone really thinks you should be banned for not understanding the squiggle, you're taking BF too seriously.

Relax and enjoy the squiggle. Just think maybe by the end of the weekend the Pies logo will uncover itself. Good luck

I've read more, and am now realizing that the squiggle could eradicate poverty, I am sorry about my earlier ignorance.

 

[The Swert]

Why does it seem like every team has improved since the start of the year except St Kilda?

Even teams at the bottom such as Brisbane and Melbourne have become more defensive.

 

[KillaKanga]

North HATES the squiggle.

Less than a goal in it at half time.

 

[treefingers]

Why does it seem like every team has improved since the start of the year except St Kilda?

Even teams at the bottom such as Brisbane and Melbourne have become more defensive.

Interesting. I wonder if Final Siren could make a squiggle graph that tracks teams progress over the course of say, 5 years. Or is each season independent of each other?

 

[Final Siren]

Hi Final Siren. Just wondering if there's any easy way to get a record of the squiggles round by round tips this year?

There isn't, no. If there's something in particular you're curious about, though, just ask.

 

[KillaKanga]

I've read more, and am now realizing that the squiggle could eradicate poverty, I am sorry about my earlier ignorance.

Just saved yourself a perma ban

Squiggle tipped North 106 - 76
Actual Score North 126 - 51

Hopefully North moves up and to the right.

GWS will do a JFK - Back and to the left

That would place us in 5th behind the actual top 4. Port can claim actual 5th on the ladder but I'd rather a squggle 5th any day of the week.

 

[KillaKanga]

Just saved yourself a perma ban

Squiggle tipped North 106 - 76
Actual Score North 126 - 51

Hopefully North moves up and to the right.

GWS will do a JFK - Back and to the left

That would place us in 5th behind the actual top 4. Port can claim actual 5th on the ladder but I'd rather a squggle 5th any day of the week.

Much further left than up. Although both about about 20 points the difference.

I guess 5 up is half the distance than 5 across.

Is there a reason the blocks are rectangles and not squares Final Siren ?

 

[Phaze Away]

I notice that in the predicted Geelong-North Melbourne semi-final it has Geelong winning by thirteen points - is this with a home-ground advantage taken into account? Considering the proximity of the two teams on the squiggle I thought the predicted margin would've been closer.

 

[Final Siren]

Much further left than up. Although both about about 20 points the difference.

I guess 5 up is half the distance than 5 across.

Is there a reason the blocks are rectangles and not squares Final Siren ?

By default, the interactive squiggle chart fills your browser window, so that you can see everything. If you have a rectangular browser window, the chart will be rectangular, too. To avoid this, click the "1:1" button in the top-right, which makes everything square. You can also use the "+" and "-" buttons to resize.

At 1:1, North still moves more horizontally than vertically, because of the way the squiggle algorithm is constructed. This is a bit subtle and mathy, and all you really need to know is that the squiggle cares more about low scores than high ones. So feel free to abandon this post now! But if you are ready to get your geek on, it's like this: the core algorithm is PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * (TEAM OFFENCE ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE) + HOME ADVANTAGE. Let's ignore home advantage to simplify things. If we have a game between two equally strong teams, say with OFFENCE and DEFENCE all rated at 50, we get a predicted score of 85 * 50 ÷ 50 = 85 points. The OFFENCE and DEFENCE scores just cancel each other out.

Now let's say we double the OFFENCE score. The predicted score is then 85 * 100 ÷ 50 = 170 points. Like the OFFENCE score, it has doubled.

If we do the same thing but with DEFENCE, though, the predicted score is 85 * 50 / 100 = 42.5 points. That's half. Which shouldn't really be a surprise, because that's what happens when you flip the numerator and the denominator in a fraction: 2/1 is double, 1/2 is half.

What it means in terms of raw points, though, is that the team needs to score 85 more points to justify an OFFENCE rating of 100, but only needs to restrict its opposition by about 42 fewer points to justify a DEFENCE rating of 100.

Let's look at what happens with an even more extreme value. An OFFENCE score of 200 leads to a predicted score of 85 * 200 ÷ 50 = 340 points. This is a lot higher than any team has ever scored in AFL history (239, Geelong v Brisbane 1992).

A DEFENCE score of 200, though, leads to a far more realistic outcome: 85 * 50 ÷ 200 = 21 points. This is only a touch lower than the lowest score we've had this year (22, Brisbane v Fremantle).

So restricting an opposition to a very low score leads to extremely high DEFENCE values. For the squiggle, keeping the opposition to 40 points is twice as good as keeping them to 80. And keeping them to 20 is twice as good again, and keeping them to 10 is twice as good as that, and so on.

This does sometimes lead to weird squiggle jumps, where a very low-scoring match results in what seems like an unjustifiably large horizontal movement. But whenever I've tried alternatives that don't do this, they perform worse from a predictive point of view. So although there are undoubtedly occasions when the weather or freak events contribute to a low score, I think that more often it's a genuine signal of a high-performing team.

 

[Final Siren]

I notice that in the predicted Geelong-North Melbourne semi-final it has Geelong winning by thirteen points - is this with a home-ground advantage taken into account? Considering the proximity of the two teams on the squiggle I thought the predicted margin would've been closer.

Correct; the predictor is just awarding Geelong its usual home-state advantage. Without that, it would be tipping Geelong by 1.

 

[Phaze Away]

Correct; the predictor is just awarding Geelong its usual home-state advantage. Without that, it would be tipping Geelong by 1.

The final would be played at the MCG - wouldn't this be classified as a North Melbourne home ground under the squiggle's formula?

 

[Final Siren]

Why does it seem like every team has improved since the start of the year except St Kilda?
Even teams at the bottom such as Brisbane and Melbourne have become more defensive.

Very well observed! There are actually 3 teams that haven't improved their chart position since the start of the year: Collingwood and Brisbane have also gone backwards. But all the rest are at least a little better.

There is indeed a small but steady bias that tends to reward teams the longer the season goes on. At R1, the average rating was 61.84. Now it's 66.27.

The reason isn't football-related but is a statistical quirk related to my previous post on how the squiggle uses percentages. When a team scores heavily or defends well, there's no upper limit on how high their OFFENCE or DEFENCE rating can go. (In practice, OFFENCE will never go that high, because it's too hard to score hundreds of points, but DEFENCE can soar on the back of a very tight defensive effort.) They can do 50% better than expected, or 200%, or 500%, or anything.

But they can't do 200% worse. If they're expected to score 100 and instead they score 50, that's 50% worse. If they score 0, that's 100% worse. And that's the hard limit.

So what happens is ratings tend to get adjusted upward by a bit more than they get adjusted down. It's not a huge difference, but over the course of a season the average rating does rise.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I was just on afl tables and having a look at Adelaide records and saw their 2009 run of good defensive games.
24 to North in Rd 12, then 13 to Freo in Rd 15.
So I went to look at the squiggle for 2009. And it surprised me. It appears to the naked eye that Adelaide was the best side that year.
Is that right?

 

[Final Siren]

The final would be played at the MCG - wouldn't this be classified as a North Melbourne home ground under the squiggle's formula?

Ha, yes. But before you get excited about that, you should know that Geelong have an exceptional record playing home games at the MCG.

Once I wrote a buggy algorithm that accidentally awarded home ground advantage to the home team for games that were played in the away team's state. (Including, for Geelong, games in Melbourne.) It turns out to be my 2nd-most accurate algorithm of all time. And it's because Geelong overperform at the 'G.