Analysis Season 2015

[Fatcat08]

There was a bit of discussion floating around a few threads on our chances for next season and also where our goals are going to come from. Thought I might start a new one to get it all in one place.

For mine I would be ok with next season if we got 10-12 wins and a percentage around 100. We're still young at either end of the ground but of course our midfield now bats a lot deeper and has more topline talent as well.

Just on the goals front, I can see goals coming from our midfield/smalls something like the below

Green - 40
Beams - 20
Zorko - 30
Rockliff - 20
Rich - 20
Hanley - 20
Christensen - 20
Mayes - 15-20
Taylor - 15-20
Aish - 10

Thats about 220 goals from our midfield which would pretty much equal our output in total from this year. If you then add in our tall forwards we should certainly be able to increase our goal output this season hopefully closer to 300 which would sit us about mid table. Now I know a few in that list would have to have seasons best goals but I see scope for that given we will have a much larger rotation of our midfield stocks through our forward line and should be winning a bit more ball than we did this year. Of course its not guaranteed but I certainly see scope for our scoring to improve significantly without having that 50 goal forward.

 

[snooplions]

The 2015 season will be a failure in my eyes unless we beat Richmond.. haha, hate losing to them so much.
Other than that I think we can make the top 8 provided we don't have a slow start to the first half of the year for the third year in a row..
I think Josh Green will be our leading goal kicker again, followed by Mayes who will have a breakout year and who I think will spend most of the year in the forward half. Michael Close will be good for another 2 goals a game season, but I predict he'll probably only play a dozen games or so next year, I expect freeman will play around the same amount but kick a few more bags than Close.

Predictions:
Green 35-40
Mayes 25-35
Freeman 25-30
Close 20-25
Beams 20-25
zorko 15-20
taylor 10-15

 

[EskiBro]

Obviously depending on our draw, but I see 11-11 next season as a pass mark and of course sneaking into the finals would be great.

Our young KPD look to have long careers ahead of them. Clarke, Gardiner and McStay all are at a good standard and Bourke looked decent on debut, but I worry about our ability to take on a "gorilla" forward, so Merrett will probably have to go back at stages. I think Maguire will be "phased out" this year for Bourke.

The midfield is elite and still very young, we're set there for the next 5-6 years.

Small forwards are excellent, Green, Taylor, Christensen and Zorko, with Rockliff and Redden resting a bit down there.

KPFs have always been a worry after JB, but I thought Freeman looked very classy, I expect that he has a position in the best 22 and it's his to lose. McStay looks good when he's swung down there as well. Close and Paine haven't shown much yet and I hope we don't get to the stage where we have to play Maguane, so we'll have to hope that Staker is fit (although, he's probably only got 1 more year left).

Goals prediction:

Green - 40
Freeman - 25
Staker - 20
Beams - 20
Zorko - 30
Rockliff - 20
Hanley - 20
Christensen - 20
Merrett - 20
Taylor - 15-20
McStay 10-15
Redden - 10
Rich - 10 (from HBF)

Mayes and Aish could bob up there as well, depending on what role they're given. A very even spread of goal kickers next year I think.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Having a look at the 2014 ladder, I can see us getting an extra win or two and jumping up two spots pretty easily (Carlton & Bulldogs). The other teams (GC, Pies, Crows, Eagles) sitting just outside the 8 are likely to finish in a similar position next year. They also have the luxury of having key forwards that have shown more than our current group. 2015 should be a season of slow improvement. Introducing Rich, Beams and Christensen to our midfield as well as better utilising players like Taylor & Green is going to take a while.

 

[acuguy]

I think if Mayes plays forward you can bookmark him for 30-40 goals. Boy is all class and he is a natural forward. He will kick some bags with our midfield.

 

[Elixuh]

One of Leppas goals at the beginning of the 2014 season I think was a percentage of 100. We didn't achieve that this year but if we could in 2015 I think it'd be a sign of great improvement and would likely have us sitting 12th at worst.

I think anything under 80 would be a fail as we managed 69 percent this year.

 

[jjami15]

I usually sit down with the draw prior to making statements however I would like to see a minimum of 10 wins. If the AFL does the draw as they did this year we should play the other bottom 5 almost twice. Possibly drop one or two due to injuries or form slumps with a couple of wins against teams above us. Getting our percentage up there is important without getting spanked by other teams will help. I see next year again as a bit of development year for those now second and third year players with them getting games against some of the older types. This will benefit 2016 when they most probably won't be here anyway. I can see a definite game plan being understood and implemented by our players. Can't see us making finals.....yet but will be one of those teams just outside the eight.

 

[Apex61]

Richmond smashed or Bust. Come on boys lift.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Like a few others I'd be interested to see how Mayes goes as a forward for 80% of the time. He is just a natural up forward and we will be needing lots of goals from someone.

 

[snooplions]

Richmond smashed or Bust. Come on boys lift.

You're onto it. Nothing else matters!

 

[chopperduck]

With the likes of Taylor, Green, Zorko, Beams, Bundy all good at HF i could see Mayes being more so in the HB rotations along with Rich. Too hard to tell how the tall forwards will go, but as for the smalls/mid goal kicking ability.

Green - 30
Beams - 20
Bundy - 20
Rich - 20
Zorko - 20
Hanley - 20
Rocky - 10
Redden - 10
Taylor - 15
Mayes - 15
Aish - 10

Conservative amounts but it is nearly 200 goals from the midfield players alone.

 

[jackess]

Green - 40
McGuane - 30
Close - 25
Leuenberger - 20
Zorko - 20
D. Beams - 20
Rockliff - 15
Christensen - 15
Mayes - 15

 

[BillyMayesHere]

I am totally on board with Mayes up forward, solid down back but in front of goals is where I see him excelling! I have no doubts our midfield will be the main weapon for us kicking goals, expect Beams to kick 20-30 and Christensen round the same mark. For mine it all about that KPF if just one of the pleather of tall forwards we have be it Close/Freeman/Paine can be fast trackedto the point where that can boot 35+ it would take the whole team to the next level to have that reliable target up forward!

 

[Apex61]

If the midfield gets on top our forwards will get a lot of practice with the high supply.
I am predicting some happy days for forwards (the more pill the better).

Does everyone remember a few years back when Geelong would just pin the ball in our defensive
50 (basically set up camp for the match and raffle off shots on goal). Glad to see those days over.

But anyway smash the dam Tigers as I have a few scores to settle .

 

[Camblan]

I think the media is hyping us up and I wonder how the new found expectation might affect us. Definitely could see us top 8 but there are so many things that have to go right:

• Staker/ Merrett/ McGuane kick 30+/ step up to the plate as the focal point of our attack.
• Close/ Freeman/ McStay kick 30 + essentially having break out seasons
• Clarke / Bourke/ Gardiner/ Andrews establish themselves as the no.1 defender and take some genuine scalps
• Golby, C.Beams, Harwood, Cutler do a reliable job of small defender.
• Midfield needs to plate up 4 of the following rotation in any given round: Rockliff, Redden, Rich, D. Beams, Hanley, Zorko, Christensen.
• Sam Mayes establishes himself in the forward line, out of the whole team he would be the hardest to much up against.
• Either Leuenberger or Martin play for the whole season.

A quicklist but if we reached all of those goals, than IMO Lions make the 8. However I would just be happy to get ourselves out of the bottom 6, have good percentage, stop any blowouts and confidently phase out Merrett and McGuire. In short the success of 2015 will be told by our defence.

 

[lukiuslion]

Last year I was Bullish, I thought whilst we didn't have the list to have a genuine 'tilt' at a flag, that we could sneak into the 8 even with a tough draw, mainly due to organic improvement and the new coach factor, most were decidedly less optimistic than me and turned out to be correct.

This year with all the positive media, player retention and the addition of Dayne Beams and Alan Christensen a lot in the media are calling us a ' genuine top 8 threat' and I expect most here and elsewhere are expecting dramatic improvement.

This year I am not.

Whilst I think we are 100% on the right path and we will play finals in the next 3 years, I can see next year being another of frustration and pain, mainly because the media hype and expectation will have some expecting the 'swagger' to immediately transfer into wins.

we have Lost Brown, Mcgrath, Patful, Raines, Moloney and we have not added any senior experience (25 year olds +).

We have no forward line structure and really, no forward line, we are relying on 1-3 year players to take up big roles. Rivers, Longergan, Taylor vs... Close, Freeman, McStay.

we have a flock of kids entering the 'second year blues' zone.

Put simply, we are currently lacking experience and whilst we have arguably the most 'promising' list in the league in many ways, I think next year will be one where we get blown of the park 7-8 times, we show great signs at times, we experience frustrating teething problems, we realise Dayne Beams looks a lot different without big bodies around him, we curse at Close not being ready, we argue over how our ruck division should work, we wonder 'what the hell has happened to player X" (ala Mitch Golby this year).. and we come out with about 7 wins.

as much as this off season has been amazing, I feel we still have a couple of years until these kids can carry the can... in a way in which means we can be a genuine, consistent threat to our more mature opposition.

 

[POBT]

I think you can be a threat to the top 8 without being a genuine, consistent threat to the mature sides. In some respects, the top 8 finals system distorts the reality that, in most years, a maximum of 5 sides are really a genuine premiership threat. Sides 6-8 often have more in common with sides 9-10 than they do with sides 1-2.

So it is possible to be a threat to the top 8 without being a genuine threat to the best few sides each and every week.

I think it is not unreasonable for us to hope we'll be in the mix for a finals berth for most of the year. Either that or we'll start slow but put together a competitive back half of the season, a little like 2013.

Will we make finals? I'd bet against it. Will we run fairly close to the sides outside the top 4-5? I reckon we could.

 

[Toffee Lion]

we realise Dayne Beams looks a lot different without big bodies around him

Not sure how you have this idea.

Swan and Pendlebury are similar to Rockliff and Hanley

Then you add a surprisingly strong Jack Redden and Daniel Rich, I'd argue that Beams has bigger bodies around him at the Lions then he did at Collingwood.

 

[Lace Out]

It will be interesting to see how the coaches go about it with the personnel we have.Do we play like they want us to play when we are eventually structured up with a good KPF or two or do we try and scratch out as many wins as possible by modifying our style with the strengths we currently have.

 

[lukiuslion]

I think you can be a threat to the top 8 without being a genuine, consistent threat to the mature sides. In some respects, the top 8 finals system distorts the reality that, in most years, a maximum of 5 sides are really a genuine premiership threat. Sides 6-8 often have more in common with sides 9-10 than they do with sides 1-2.

So it is possible to be a threat to the top 8 without being a genuine threat to the best few sides each and every week.

I think it is not unreasonable for us to hope we'll be in the mix for a finals berth for most of the year. Either that or we'll start slow but put together a competitive back half of the season, a little like 2013.

Will we make finals? I'd bet against it. Will we run fairly close to the sides outside the top 4-5? I reckon we could.

Yeah I was of this opinion last year, and no I don't think it is unreasonable for people to hope for that result, infact I think that is very reasonable and possible.

I just think that next year, will be almost the same as this year, if not a tad worse, strictly because of our age profile and the expectation that McStay, Taylor, Mayes, Aish, Gardiner, Close, Freeman are required to actually fill vital positions for us, our forward line situation is not desirable.

As I said, this is not a negative post, I haven't been more excited about a Lions unit in a decade, I just think that 2015 will be one more of pain in terms of W/L given some of the key position deficiency's and our age structure.

 

[lukiuslion]

Not sure how you have this idea.

Swan and Pendlebury are similar to Rockliff and Hanley

Then you add a surprisingly strong Jack Redden and Daniel Rich, I'd argue that Beams has bigger bodies around him at the Lions then he did at Collingwood.

Yeah fair call, I did think that as I wrote it, maybe I should have seen 'Beams looks a lot different in a much younger side where he is expected to carry more of the load", It wasn't a direct and key prediction underpinning my entire summery of 2015, it was an example of the sorts of frustrations I can forsee us having as the weeks roll on.

 

[Ironmonger]

I think you can be a threat to the top 8 without being a genuine, consistent threat to the mature sides. In some respects, the top 8 finals system distorts the reality that, in most years, a maximum of 5 sides are really a genuine premiership threat. Sides 6-8 often have more in common with sides 9-10 than they do with sides 1-2.

So it is possible to be a threat to the top 8 without being a genuine threat to the best few sides each and every week.

I think it is not unreasonable for us to hope we'll be in the mix for a finals berth for most of the year. Either that or we'll start slow but put together a competitive back half of the season, a little like 2013.

Will we make finals? I'd bet against it. Will we run fairly close to the sides outside the top 4-5? I reckon we could.

I'm probably a bit less optimistic than that, largely because I think for all the positive things to have happened in the past few months, there are still two glaring problems that separate us from the mid-tier teams like Adelaide, West Coast and Richmond. Firstly, our age profile is terrible, and we will still struggle to run out some games, albeit hopefully not as badly as last year. Secondly, we are terribly weak in the key positions; even down back I suspect Clarke and Maguire will battle much more in 2015 without Patfull's consistent support.

I think organised, disciplined teams in the middle of the ladder will be able to exploit those major weaknesses most of the time.

That said, a lot of last year's mid-ladder teams look a bit vulnerable. I don't really see anyone from Richmond in 8th down to the Bulldogs in 14th driving further up the ladder next year, with the possible exception of the Suns. It might be that in 2015 the teams outside the top four or five will be pretty beatable.

 

[POBT]

I'm not a huge rap for either West Coast or Adelaide. I don't think either club runs anywhere near deep enough through the midfield.

 

[POBT]

I just think that next year, will be almost the same as this year, if not a tad worse, strictly because of our age profile and the expectation that McStay, Taylor, Mayes, Aish, Gardiner, Close, Freeman are required to actually fill vital positions for us, our forward line situation is not desirable.

As I said, this is not a negative post, I haven't been more excited about a Lions unit in a decade, I just think that 2015 will be one more of pain in terms of W/L given some of the key position deficiency's and our age structure.

The problem with your analysis is that you've cited the departure of a number of experienced players as problematic when only Patfull played a major role in 2014. So I don't think our age profile is, in reality, worse than last year.

In fact, I think we are going to be able to play much more experienced side next year. We won't play anywhere near the same number of first year players. Our second year players are a year older and with valuable senior game time. Our third year players likewise. We then add in two midfielders who have played 50+ games including finals and grand finals. We bring in 3 best 18 players who missed plenty of footy last year (Rich, Leuey, Redden). We may also be able to call on Staker and McGuane.

That all has a knock on effect. A young bloke only plays if he's up for it and can contribute as a senior player. There are higher standards to play senior footy. And young players won't be forced to play significant roles. An Aish or Taylor may not have to go into the centre square contest all year because they've gone from the 4th or 5th midfielder to the 9th or 10th.

I also don't think we are necessarily hugely reliant on the young KPPs. I mean, I don't even have any of Gardiner, Clarke or Close as sure things for round 1 because we might instead put Goose and Merrett into key defensive posts and Staker at centre half forward. We have options which takes away from the "youngsters or bust" approach we were forced to take in 2014.

So I actually see our age profile as being in its best shape for several years. I also think you are underestimating the value of a 7 or 8 strong midfield all with 50+ games and all in their prime years. Coaches would kill for that sort of midfield depth - midfield quality and depth is the most important factor for success in modern footy IMO and we have it. That's going to help mask growing pains in other areas of the ground. Couple that with our ruck stocks and we've got a group of blokes who can control games from the midfield.

I can see reasons why we may struggle. But we are far more advanced than last year. We've recruited incredibly well, still have lots of internal natural improvement to come and will get critical blokes back from injury. I'm happy for people to manage expectations but I don't think it is at all unreasonable to expect something more than incremental improvement.

 

[Haso]

The problem with your analysis is that you've cited the departure of a number of experienced players as problematic when only Patfull played a major role in 2014. So I don't think our age profile is, in reality, worse than last year.

Our age profile will actually be improved compared to the end of last year. The addition of Beams (110), Rich (101) and Redden (112) exceeds what we lose in Patfull (190). Adding Christensen makes it look even better.