This is an argument nobody wins. we will never know. I do think that had both of them gone through to the national draft they would both be in GWS colours
-
LIVE: Richmond v Melbourne - 7:25PM Wed
Squiggle tips Demons at 77% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
Player Watch Matt Crouch - Re-Signed to End of 2025
- Thread starter DREAM TEAM BUFF
- Start date
-
- Tags
- adelaide crows
- Tagged users None
This is an argument nobody wins. we will never know. I do think that had both of them gone through to the national draft they would both be in GWS colours
I understand NTRab's point however I also believe that sometimes you just target the best talent available and with our draft sanctions Matt Crouch has proven to be a steal at pick 23 and by the time 2016 rolls in and Scotty Thompson is either retired or in his final year Bobby will be playing that role with great execution
I think that's what everyone but NTRab is trying to say. NTRab who is openly critical of the clubs drafting and needing to draft players we need has clearly overlooked that fact yet no doubt would be very critical if Thompson walks away and the club doesn't have a replacement. Most likely if we had drafted someone who is pacy in replacement of Bob they would be playing in the SANFL still and will be down the same road as other players where we will barely see them for 2 years.
Kane McGoodwin
Make me an Admin!
- May 21, 2001
- 81,352
- 81,782
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Adelaide Crows
We should have drafted 1 of his sisters (serious cat fight if 8 in a household
) ... or the poodle!
Bacon8
Cancelled
And has missed more games with injury. THAT was the point made in the rankings that you overlooked.
- Jul 13, 2012
- 43,600
- 21,024
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Charlotte Hornets, Chelsea, Striker
This may seem like a silly question, but do we all need to reassess the Jack Watts v Natnui pick?
Melbourne could still end up with the btter player. Not sure Naitnui is ever going to go near his potential or the hype, whereas watts is slowly heading up the curve.
I don't know about top two but Emma Quayle rated him very highly, and her opinion is very respected in these matters.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...o-the-2012-national-draft-20121116-29hnj.html
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...o-the-2012-national-draft-20121116-29hnj.html
- Jun 10, 2009
- 29,795
- 44,888
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Panthers, GWV Rebels Beaufort Crows
Ask yourself a question, what player of Natanui and Watts do you think every club and the greater majority of supporters without exception would want to add to their current playing list???
I think you know the answer to that one!!!!
- Jul 25, 2010
- 32,674
- 18,767
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Golden State Warriors NBA Champions
Bailey01
Norm Smith Medallist
Well maybe not but certainly not showing why he gets a game every week
Southerntakeover
Hall of Famer
Very strongly disagree on Brad Crouch. IMO an absolutely elite talent. His early performances have been remarkable.
Also don't really agree on recruiting strategy. IMO it's a serious error to recruit 'traits' ahead of quality. Generally speaking, if you take the player that you think will end up being the best, I think you'll be better off. Of course,. if there were players of a rough equivalency I would take need, but I wouldn't overlook quality. I don't think there's really such thing as having too much of a commodity, provided you're willing to trade aggressively.
Also don't really agree on recruiting strategy. IMO it's a serious error to recruit 'traits' ahead of quality. Generally speaking, if you take the player that you think will end up being the best, I think you'll be better off. Of course,. if there were players of a rough equivalency I would take need, but I wouldn't overlook quality. I don't think there's really such thing as having too much of a commodity, provided you're willing to trade aggressively.
- Jul 25, 2010
- 32,674
- 18,767
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Golden State Warriors NBA Champions
Much more acceptable answer. He isn't a true number 1. He played as a key forward in the TAC cup and monstered the defenders. He was bigger and stronger than the rest but he just didn't grow any taller or get any bigger in body size.
Now he has to try and play as a midfielder as he isn't strong enough to play as a key forward or defender in the AFL.
He has the skills to be a good midfielder, now just has to improve his endurance.
Definitely agree. I've always felt that trade week is for targeting needs, while draft day is for targeting talent.
NTRabbit
Brownlow Medallist
Watts was the best KPF in his draft back when the gorilla key forward was dead, and it was all about having highly athletic oversized flankers as your key forwards. Anyone suggesting he wasn't a true #1 is kidding themselves. Fast forward a year and suddenly the gorilla forward is not only not dead, it's back to the ideal again, and the oversized flanker model is thrown in the bin, leaving Watts in a kind of limbo, at a club with no youth development to speak of, still having to drag around not only the weight of being a #1 pick, but the added anchor that was "savior of Melbourne"
If he'd gone to West Coast instead of Naitanui, the Eagles would have an excellent utility tall who can play all over the park, while the press would be talking about the failed Fijian experiment at Melbourne.
If he'd gone to West Coast instead of Naitanui, the Eagles would have an excellent utility tall who can play all over the park, while the press would be talking about the failed Fijian experiment at Melbourne.
- Jul 13, 2012
- 43,600
- 21,024
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Charlotte Hornets, Chelsea, Striker
Would I like 100% fit every week Watts or 3 games a year from Naitnui?
What I'm saying is the gap is certainly closing every game they play (or in Naitnui's case dont play)
Kane McGoodwin
Make me an Admin!
- May 21, 2001
- 81,352
- 81,782
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Adelaide Crows
Gap also closing because Dees now have a coach with a clue, as that has held back Watts' development.
To be fair he only has had one hamstring injury hasn't he. He received a fracture in a contest in the showdown. Hartlett has had far more injuries and Ebert is way less explosive leaving only Wines a genuine comparison and Crouch belts Wines silly in the stats. Anyways its only his 2nd year. give them 50 games each and we will see which players are better.
DD#23
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 31, 2013
- 9,127
- 12,400
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
hmm, not according to the video the club posted.
was basically a mis-step off the ball. You wouldn't believe he'd sprained an ankle let alone broken anything.
Players can get injured in earlier contests and they try and run it out until they hurt it even more in another situation.
You can't measure the impact of Crouch or Wines using stats, or at least, not the stats that are recorded by Champion Data.
I'd put them both on equal footing from what I've seen so far. Both already very good players with the potential to be elite.
- May 26, 2013
- 22,327
- 31,745
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Liverpool FC
I was going to title this post "Who will be the better Crouch brother", because I think this will be a tough choice to make come the end of their careers.
But in looking at some numbers I stumbled across an interesting statistic.
In fantasy footy, "disposals per minute" is often used as a guide for targeting certain player to pick, but it doesn't get much of a run elsewhere - perhaps because disposals per minute is pretty meaningless without doing some extra maths.
The NBA doesn't do it per minute, it instead converts the per-minute into a full game equivalent - the "scoring per 48 min" stat. Eg this season Stephen Curry averaged 23.8 points per game, but 34.9 points per 48 minutes.
In the AFL we can use the "percentage of game time played" stat and rather than leave it at a per minute, if we convert it into a 100% of game time stat we get a number any footy fan can understand at first glance.
ie anything over an average of 30 is going to be pretty bloody good.
In another thread when responding to a comment comparing Priddis to Grigg at the start of their careers, I wondered about looking at not just their disposals per game but their disposals per game time, given Grigg's ample time in the shiny vest.
After comparing Grigg and Priddis I thought about looking at Brad Crouch in his first 18 games (Grigg had played 17, so I just added one as I thought 18 sounded like a nice round number to judge a player's start to his career, you can argue I should use 24 or 25, but for here, I'm just using 18).
Now we all know Brad Crouch is a ball magnet and has been from game 1. In his first 18 games he averaged 23.9 disposals per game.
I thought about comparing that start with other midfielders first 18 games, and I so came up with a list of 27 players (I prob have missed a couple, but it's pretty extensive I reckon). I haven't included anyone who started in 2003 (Ablett, Judd, Mitchell etc) as the "AFL Tables" website doesn't have the "Game time played" stat for before 2004)
Of those 27, including Pendlubury, Fye, Selwood, Rockliff etc etc, Brad Crouch had the highest average disposals per game in his first 18 games (Priddis was second with 22.4 per game).
But what about Matt Crouch? Well his average in his first 10 games is just 17.2 per game - a long way behind his brother. But as we know, young Bob has worn the subs vest a bit. Of all the players in my list, he has averaged the least amount of game time in his first 18 games (or 10 for him).
But when you convert his disposals into an average over 100% of game time, he comes out on top of all other players for their first 18 games with 32.8. The second best on the list for their first 18 games is Priddis with 32.2. Brad Crouch comes in third with 30.0.
Now this of course isn't a definitive ranking of players - and I'm not suggesting it means Crouch is a better player than the others. Gray and Danger for example spent a fair bit of time in the forward line so not surprisingly their numbers are down a bit. You could use "metres gained" and other such stats, but I think it does say something about both Crouch's ability to get the ball.
One reason a player doesn't get more game time is he isn't good enough (or at least not thought to be good enough), but Matt Crouch was pretty much drafted to get the ball. And get the ball he does - when he is given a chance.
How good is his 32.8 average for 100% of the game time? Nat Fyfe in his past 18 games has an average of 33.0. So yeah, he's doing pretty good.
The problem of course is player doesn't play a theoretical 100% of a game, they just play a game. And Here Bob needs to get more actual disposals per game if he is really going to be the game changer for the team.
This table below might suggest that he needs to be given more playing time, or it might be that he needs to improve his fitness so that he can be on the field for longer. Even on the weekend when he wasn't a sub only Lyons, Jaensch and Smith were on the field for less time.
It would not be surprising if as his game time increases his average disposals per minute drops. If we only use the 4 games in which he played over 70% of the match, his per 100% game average drops to 29.5 - but that is a pretty small sample, skewed by a bad game against Melbourne last year. If we use the 6 times he played at least 50%, his average is 33.2.
So sure, maybe he still needs to do some work, but whatever, I think it's clear we have the makings of a player who is going to get some serious leather poisoning by the time he retires.
Orange = top 5 of the category; Purple = bottom 5
All stats are for a player's first 18 games except Matt Crouch who has only played 10 (edit now including Matt's first 18)
EDIT: Have now added Lyons, Grigg and Adam Treloar to the list.
EDIT 2: Also added Tom Mitchell (no idea why I forgot him!) and Matt's first 18 games where he started)
But in looking at some numbers I stumbled across an interesting statistic.
In fantasy footy, "disposals per minute" is often used as a guide for targeting certain player to pick, but it doesn't get much of a run elsewhere - perhaps because disposals per minute is pretty meaningless without doing some extra maths.
The NBA doesn't do it per minute, it instead converts the per-minute into a full game equivalent - the "scoring per 48 min" stat. Eg this season Stephen Curry averaged 23.8 points per game, but 34.9 points per 48 minutes.
In the AFL we can use the "percentage of game time played" stat and rather than leave it at a per minute, if we convert it into a 100% of game time stat we get a number any footy fan can understand at first glance.
ie anything over an average of 30 is going to be pretty bloody good.
In another thread when responding to a comment comparing Priddis to Grigg at the start of their careers, I wondered about looking at not just their disposals per game but their disposals per game time, given Grigg's ample time in the shiny vest.
After comparing Grigg and Priddis I thought about looking at Brad Crouch in his first 18 games (Grigg had played 17, so I just added one as I thought 18 sounded like a nice round number to judge a player's start to his career, you can argue I should use 24 or 25, but for here, I'm just using 18).
Now we all know Brad Crouch is a ball magnet and has been from game 1. In his first 18 games he averaged 23.9 disposals per game.
I thought about comparing that start with other midfielders first 18 games, and I so came up with a list of 27 players (I prob have missed a couple, but it's pretty extensive I reckon). I haven't included anyone who started in 2003 (Ablett, Judd, Mitchell etc) as the "AFL Tables" website doesn't have the "Game time played" stat for before 2004)
Of those 27, including Pendlubury, Fye, Selwood, Rockliff etc etc, Brad Crouch had the highest average disposals per game in his first 18 games (Priddis was second with 22.4 per game).
But what about Matt Crouch? Well his average in his first 10 games is just 17.2 per game - a long way behind his brother. But as we know, young Bob has worn the subs vest a bit. Of all the players in my list, he has averaged the least amount of game time in his first 18 games (or 10 for him).
But when you convert his disposals into an average over 100% of game time, he comes out on top of all other players for their first 18 games with 32.8. The second best on the list for their first 18 games is Priddis with 32.2. Brad Crouch comes in third with 30.0.
Now this of course isn't a definitive ranking of players - and I'm not suggesting it means Crouch is a better player than the others. Gray and Danger for example spent a fair bit of time in the forward line so not surprisingly their numbers are down a bit. You could use "metres gained" and other such stats, but I think it does say something about both Crouch's ability to get the ball.
One reason a player doesn't get more game time is he isn't good enough (or at least not thought to be good enough), but Matt Crouch was pretty much drafted to get the ball. And get the ball he does - when he is given a chance.
How good is his 32.8 average for 100% of the game time? Nat Fyfe in his past 18 games has an average of 33.0. So yeah, he's doing pretty good.
The problem of course is player doesn't play a theoretical 100% of a game, they just play a game. And Here Bob needs to get more actual disposals per game if he is really going to be the game changer for the team.
This table below might suggest that he needs to be given more playing time, or it might be that he needs to improve his fitness so that he can be on the field for longer. Even on the weekend when he wasn't a sub only Lyons, Jaensch and Smith were on the field for less time.
It would not be surprising if as his game time increases his average disposals per minute drops. If we only use the 4 games in which he played over 70% of the match, his per 100% game average drops to 29.5 - but that is a pretty small sample, skewed by a bad game against Melbourne last year. If we use the 6 times he played at least 50%, his average is 33.2.
So sure, maybe he still needs to do some work, but whatever, I think it's clear we have the makings of a player who is going to get some serious leather poisoning by the time he retires.
Orange = top 5 of the category; Purple = bottom 5
All stats are for a player's first 18 games except Matt Crouch who has only played 10 (edit now including Matt's first 18)
EDIT: Have now added Lyons, Grigg and Adam Treloar to the list.
EDIT 2: Also added Tom Mitchell (no idea why I forgot him!) and Matt's first 18 games where he started)
Last edited:
croweater 41
Making my way downtown, Walking fast.
Solid matching is solid.
Bob was a beast in the TAC cup. He somewhat carried the Rebels in his senior year and was an absolute ball magnet (averaged what 38 touches? per game) in that year as he was either at the bottom of every pack or getting the ball from a team mate at every possible occasion.
As has been discussed regularly around this board Bob is the perfect replacement for Thommo for when he calls it quits. May not have the muscles that Thommo does but is every bit in and under the packs.
I for one and I will admit was worried about his kicking when he came to the AFL but if Priddis can win a brown low from simply hand balling most of the time who knows what he could do.
Bob was a beast in the TAC cup. He somewhat carried the Rebels in his senior year and was an absolute ball magnet (averaged what 38 touches? per game) in that year as he was either at the bottom of every pack or getting the ball from a team mate at every possible occasion.
As has been discussed regularly around this board Bob is the perfect replacement for Thommo for when he calls it quits. May not have the muscles that Thommo does but is every bit in and under the packs.
I for one and I will admit was worried about his kicking when he came to the AFL but if Priddis can win a brown low from simply hand balling most of the time who knows what he could do.
