Analysis Kinnear Beatson vs the average recruiter

[swansfan51]

By popular demand (yes, 2 people counts as popular demand Sir Swans ) Statistics are provided WITHOUT CONCLUSIONS, so people can make their own. Feel free to unpick and argue any of the assumptions, that's what makes for interesting discussion. Read the notes first because they likely answer most questions.

We analyse the performance of all of our players and coaches relative to their competition across the league, I thought it would be interesting to do the same with our recruiter.

NOTES

• The "Average Recruiter" is the average pick from each draft. In other words, the result that would occur if a computer program or trained monkey selected random drafted players from a hat, and the results were averaged out.
• Games played are as of 18/04/2014 (so obviously will have increased across the board now)
• All numbers are rounded to 2 decimal places
• All shenanigans players in the National Draft have been excluded from all clubs (father sons like Ablett/Hawkins/Kennedy/Mitchell, scholarship players like Walker/Bird, international players, minidraft players)
• Shenanigans players in the Rookie Draft have been left in for convenience/laziness (this helps Beatson out due to Mike Pyke, but likely balances out across the board over time)
• For clarity: Shenanigans players are ones that were not able to be selected fairly, at market value, by whichever club was willing to use the earliest draft pick
• Figures given are the average for all players down to the very worst pick.
• This only considers drafting, not trading. However I have included all games played by Beatson's draftees at other clubs if they were delisted or traded away. This helps to balance concerns about players not getting games for strong clubs, as we still count their games later.
  
• I have excluded the pre-season draft (due to convenience/laziness). This doesn't have many players in it, but removing it generally benefits Beatson as he has not used the PSD much. 2008 was the main year it had an impact (Rockliff, Jurrah etc)
  
• Injuries/suspensions have not been considered at all, they affect all players and generally even out when using a sample size of the entire draft. For example Rohan has had a serious injury, other players from his draft to have lost major time to injuries include Morabito, Vardy, Trengove, Moore, Talia etc etc)
• Obviously this is only a quantitative analysis, you can debate about quality vs quantity of games.

2004 (Brisbane)

Pick 18 - Cameron Wood (64 games - including all clubs)
Pick 27 - Patrick Garner (0 games)
Pick 45 - Justin Sherman (138 games including Bulldogs)
Pick 50 - Jayden Attard (25 games)
Pick 64 - Luke Forsyth (0 games)

Average - 45.4
Recruiter average - 62.52
Winner - Average Recruiter by 17.12

Rookie 15 - Patrick Baird (5 games)
Rookie 60 - Josh Drummond (94 games)
Rookie 62 - Marcus Allan (5 games)
Rookie 64 - William Hamill (3 games)
Rookie 65 - Marty Pask (8 games)
Rookie 66 - Scott Harding (50 games)

Average - 27.5
Recruiter average - 35.61
Winner - Average Recruiter by 8.11
________________________________

2005 (Brisbane)

Pick 9 - Mitch Clark (97 games - including Melbourne)
Pick 25 - Wayde Mills (16 games)
Pick 41 - Rhan Hooper (54 games)
Pick 56 - Joel Patfull (166 games)

Average - 83.25
Recruiter average - 62.27
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 21.02

Rookie 6 - Jason Roe (50 games)
Rookie 22 - Leonard Clark (0 games)
Rookie 37 - Luke Forsyth (0 games)
Rookie 49 - Cheynee Stiller (100 games)

Average - 37.5
Recruiter average - 27.81
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.69
________________________________

2006 (Adelaide)

Pick 14 - James Sellar (44 games - counted games for all clubs)
Pick 32 - Kurt Tippett (116 games - counted games for all clubs)
Pick 48 - David Mackay (109 games)
Pick 64 - Nick Gill (17 games)
Pick 78 - Bryce Campbell (8 games)

Average - 58.8
Recruiter average - 57.56
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 1.24

Rookie 14 - Andrew McIntyre (0 games)
Rookie 29 - James Turner (0 games)
Rookie 43 - Rhys Archard (0 games)
Rookie 54 - Greg Gallman (0 games)

Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 24.65 games
Winner - Average Recruiter by 24.65
_______________________________

2007 (Sydney)

Pick 11 - Patrick Veszpremi (23 games)
Pick 26 - Brett Meredith (16 games)

Average - 19.5
Recruiter average - 54.32
Winner - Average Recruiter by 34.82

Rookie 10 - Matthew O'Dwyer (7 games)
Rookie 26 - Brendan Murphy (0 games)
Rookie 41 - Jake Orreal (0 games)
Rookie 53 - Matthew Beckmans (0 games)
Rookie 58 - Aaron Bruce (0 games)
Rookie 61 - Dean Terlich (24 games - 0 for Sydney)

Average - 5.17 (including Terlich's career after being delisted)
Recruiter average - 15.02
Winner - Average Recruiter by 9.85
________________________________

2008 (Sydney)

Pick 12 - Lewis Johnston (10 games - 2 for Sydney)
Pick 30 - Daniel Hannebery (105 games)
Pick 61 - Campbell Heath (14 games - 2 for Sydney)

Average - 43 (including all games played by Lewis Johnston and Campbell Heath after being traded)
Recruiter average - 42.92 (excluding Tom Rockliff, Liam Jurrah from the PSD)
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 0.08

Rookie 12 - Kristin Thornton (8 games)
Rookie 28 - Taylor Gilchrist (0 games)
Rookie 43 - Kyle Coney (0 games)
Rookie 57 - Mike Pyke (75 games)

Average - 20.75
Recruiter average - 19.27
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 1.48
________________________________

2009 (Sydney)

Pick 6 - Gary Rohan (31 games)
Pick 14 - Lewis Jetta (82 games)
Pick 38 - Sam Reid (58 games)
Pick 54 - Byron Sumner (1 game)
Pick 55 - Trent Dennis-Lane (28 games - 19 for Sydney)

Average - 40
Recruiter average - 30.07
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.93

Rookie 10 - Henry Playfair (5 games, previously played 11 at Sydney after being traded from Geelong. Those 11 games excluded due to being the product of a trade)
Rookie 63 - Chris McKaigue (0 games)
Rookie 71 - Nathan Gordon (5 games - 2 for Sydney)
Rookie 75 - Dylan McNeil (0 games)

Average - 2.5 (including Nathan Gordon's games after being delisted)
Recruiter average - 13.60
Winner - Average Recruiter by 11.1
________________________________

2010 (Sydney) - National draft data highly contaminated due to GC concessions, 3 father son picks, teams having to draft with extremely late picks, 17yo players removed from draft etc

Pick 21 - Jed Lamb (13 games - 12 for Sydney)
Pick 40 - Luke Parker (61 games)
Pick 57 - Alex Johnson (45 games)
Pick 73 - Matthew Spangher (12 games - 6 for Sydney)

Average - 32.75
Recruiter average - 23.56
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.19

Rookie 21 - Max Otten (0 games)
Rookie 38 - Ben Haren (0 games)
Rookie 88 - Eugene Krueger (0 games)

Average - 0
Recruiter average - 7.35
Winner - Average Recruiter by 7.35
________________________________

2011 (Sydney) - Data somewhat contaminated due to GWS concessions, 3 father/son picks, 17yo players out of pool

Pick 43 - Jordan Lockyer (0 games)
Pick 61 - Alex Brown (0 games)

Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 13.08
Winner - Average Recruiter by 13.08

Rookie 13 - Shane Biggs (3 games)
Rookie 31 - Campbell Heath (0 further games for Sydney)
Rookie 93 - Harry Cunningham (10 games)
Rookie 95 - Jack Lynch (0 games)

Average - 3.25 (4.33 if excluding Heath)
Recruiter average - 5.95
Winner - Average Recruiter by 2.7 (1.62 if excluding Heath)
________________________________

2012 (Sydney) Still a few concessions and 3 father/son picks

Pick 22 - Dean Towers (0 games)
Pick 44 - Harrison Marsh (0 games)
Pick 46 - Tim Membrey (0 games)
Pick 64 - Matthew Dick (0 games)

Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 7.28
Winner - Average Recruiter by 7.28

Rookie 16 - Jake Lloyd (0 games)
Rookie 29 - Xavier Richards (1 game)
Rookie 37 - Dane Rampe (27 games)
Rookie 50 - Daniel Robinson (0 games)
Rookie 57 - Brandon Jack (9 games)
Rookie 58 - Sam Naismith (0 games)

Average - 6.17
Recruiter average - 2.62
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 3.55
________________________________

 

[RW]

Subscribed

I'm not able to give this the attention it deserves at the moment but I will hopefully be able to pick it apart in more detail soon

 

[MF]

Subscribed

I'm not able to give this the attention it deserves at the moment but I will hopefully be able to pick it apart in more detail soon

This.

Looking forward to seeing new and creative ways in which Swansfan51 can completely disregard relevant data in favour of whichever stats suit his argument.

EDIT: Although with a quick glance it looks pretty fair so far.

 

[RW]

EDIT: Although with a quick glance it looks pretty fair so far.

It's fair, I'm not arguing with the data. I think it's an interesting discussion topic. I'm not convinced the 'average recruiter' is the right benchmark to use here for a number of reasons.

 

[Cadsky]

Beatson has had some great hits and some poor misses. As mention above the "average recruiter" is not a good benchmark. If you did a list like this for every recruiter in the afl over the last 10 years i think you will find alot of similar results.

Its unfortunate that we havent had alot of luck with first round draft selections in the past but i think that has turned around a little in recent times.

I think you also need to consider the advances in sports science and recruiting strategies over the last ten years.

Ill back him in for as long as the club feels he is doing an acceptable job. Our club is too professional to allow anyone who is incompetent at the job to remain at the helm.

 

[Lakeside Swan]

Why isn't the average recruiter a good benchmark? It's not like the average will be skewed. The only variable is the average positioning of the draft picks that the average recruiter has had. Based on this he's around average but I would think he's higher draft picks that he's had are below the average. I'd be interested to see how he compares to someone like Graham Wright.

 

[Millky95]

Why isn't the average recruiter a good benchmark? It's not like the average will be skewed. The only variable is the average positioning of the draft picks that the average recruiter has had. Based on this he's around average but I would think he's higher draft picks that he's had are below the average. I'd be interested to see how he compares to someone like Graham Wright.

Another way to do it, would be to compare him to the other recruiters individually

 

[MF]

Why don't you just compare Beaston's picks with the average number of games played for a player picked in that number in the draft? So, for instance compare pick 18 - Cameron Wood with the average of the pick 18s from all the drafts you've analysed. If you've already removed all the shennanigans players you can just adjust the draft numbers next to each players name.

It's not perfect but for the sake of what you're trying to acheive here it makes far more sense than just using an average of random players.

 

[swansfan51]

Why don't you just compare Beaston's picks with the average number of games played for a player picked in that number in the draft? So, for instance compare pick 18 - Cameron Wood with the average of the pick 18s from all the drafts you've analysed. If you've already removed all the shennanigans players you can just adjust the draft numbers next to each players name.

It's not perfect but for the sake of what you're trying to acheive here it makes far more sense than just using an average of random players.

Fair question - the big reason is that it is cleaner to compare players in the same draft, because the talent pool can vary hugely between years. An example is 2011 where players like Shiel, Treloar, Hampton, Cameron, Edwards, Bruce, Miles, Wilson and Bugg were stripped out of the pool. It would be unfair to compare a late pick in that year to a late pick in a superdraft like 2001 or 2008.

Nothing is perfect, but I decided to compare each year against itself.

 

[MF]

Fair enough, at a glance though it doesn't look like Kinnear has had a great selection of picks to use over his career so seems a tad unfair to compare him with an average of the entire draft.

 

[MarkP]

Fair enough, at a glance though it doesn't look like Kinnear has had a great selection of picks to use over his career so seems a tad unfair to compare him with an average of the entire draft.

That was my beginning thoughts going through it.

Maybe a average "pick" of each club year to year to see where that stands might help.

Very esoteric though and hard to line up because you can select a KPP that you know will take a few years to start to play but the club wants or get that mature body mid to immediately start seniors. But as was stated no comparison methodology is perfect.

Excellent data though - thanks to the OP

 

[swansfan51]

Another idea: comparing picks used to average from the draft. For example in 2004 (first year I did) there were 71 players taken in the National Draft, so the average pick was ~35. Beatson selected at an average of pick 41, so he had below average picks. Maybe that would add another level of detail - some years like 2007 he used way above average picks.

The flaw is this wouldn't take into account things like Father/Sons who distort the rest of the draft because they aren't taken at fair value.

 

[Dan87]

His number will naturally go down as we spend time at the top of the ladder.

They're also probably increasing the risk proposition on those picks looking for players that may break into the 22, comparing against the average recruiter may be deceptive. Comes down to how the clubs view the draft too.

 

[FreeAgent1]

Another idea: comparing picks used to average from the draft. For example in 2004 (first year I did) there were 71 players taken in the National Draft, so the average pick was ~35. Beatson selected at an average of pick 41, so he had below average picks. Maybe that would add another level of detail - some years like 2007 he used way above average picks.

The flaw is this wouldn't take into account things like Father/Sons who distort the rest of the draft because they aren't taken at fair value.

This is great SF51 !!!! and confirms what I already thought, which is.

Beatson should be a specialist 3rd pick and later recruiting manager!!! Get 2 and Beatson isnt allowed to pick before pick 30...

 

[BarneyBent]

Why does Cunningham only have 10 games to his name? Rampe 27? Lloyd 0? And so on?

 

[Millky95]

Why does Cunningham only have 10 games to his name? Rampe 27? Lloyd 0? And so on?

Games played are as of 18/04/2014 (so obviously will have increased across the board now)

 

[BarneyBent]

Thanks, missed that.

 

[BarneyBent]

His number will naturally go down as we spend time at the top of the ladder.

They're also probably increasing the risk proposition on those picks looking for players that may break into the 22, comparing against the average recruiter may be deceptive. Comes down to how the clubs view the draft too.

Yeah, this. I mean there have obviously been some pretty disappointing first round picks, though some have had injuries/laziness play their role (who knows what LJ and Vespa could have been had they not constantly struggled with niggles, that's gonna take a toll on both body and mind).

Also, we've had a very stable best 22 since Beatson has arrived. Players that aren't good enough generally haven't gotten games, because there have been so few opportunities, which lowers our games total compared to other clubs. If you were to sort players into "duds" and "successes", the stats would look much more kindly on Beatson.

 

[The King!]

I think since 2011 at least we have needed to bolster our key defenders and more recently out ruck.

To that end we have drafted a lot of mid sized players which is frustrating

Its also annoying (and this not Kinnera Beatsons fault necessarily) how many are picked and never play or play a handful of games and are then gone.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I think since 2011 at least we have needed to bolster our key defenders and more recently out ruck.

To that end we have drafted a lot of mid sized players which is frustrating

Its also annoying (and this not Kinnera Beatsons fault necessarily) how many are picked and never play or play a handful of games and are then gone.

So many mid sized forwards why? i think AJ going down has really cut our stocks down back just as he was starting to break through

Membrey what a absolute waste played 1 game in 2 years, put development time in him and traded him away for nothing, same with Towers pick 22(ffs) has played 9 games in 2 years.

Unless Towers is given enough opportunity he will be heading to another bottom 4 club soon and we will get nothing for him.

Did we really need to recruit yet ANOTHER mid sized forward in James Rose? why our forward line is stacked as it is.

We recruit these players but barely play them.

 

[alanlau34]

I think since 2011 at least we have needed to bolster our key defenders and more recently out ruck.

To that end we have drafted a lot of mid sized players which is frustrating

Its also annoying (and this not Kinnera Beatsons fault necessarily) how many are picked and never play or play a handful of games and are then gone.

Direct correlation of our strong form over a long period of time. Hard to crack in to get a game. The alternative is to go the route of Doggies or Saints and rebuild every 6-10 years just to play the kids

That, and you suspect that players like Shaw have compromising pics of Horse's missus

 

[robbieando]

Personally I was saying back in 2002 that we should of been drafting Key Position Defenders to build depth so much so that I was still saying it well into when Beatson taking over the recruiting. I gave up in the end as we either covered via a trade of converted a forward and the senior side has never missed a beat with the retirements of Dunkley, Schauble , Craig Bolton and Leo Barry.

AJ was the bright spot that came from the drafts and made an impact but it now seems he was only a short term gain sadly and the impact shows.

It has always been an area that we have seemed to lack depth in, but have never draft to cover. In fact last two rookie drafts are the first time we seem to have cared about future needs in the position. Time will tell, but this in as bad as I recall it but its not down to Beatson as its gone on longer than he has been here.

Also Roos was never a fan of drafting Key Position or Rucks due to the extra time they took to develop.

 

[MF]

Personally I was saying back in 2002 that we should of been drafting Key Position Defenders to build depth so much so that I was still saying it well into when Beatson taking over the recruiting. I gave up in the end as we either covered via a trade of converted a forward and the senior side has never missed a beat with the retirements of Dunkley, Schauble , Craig Bolton and Leo Barry.

AJ was the bright spot that came from the drafts and made an impact but it now seems he was only a short term gain sadly and the impact shows.

It has always been an area that we have seemed to lack depth in, but have never draft to cover. In fact last two rookie drafts are the first time we seem to have cared about future needs in the position. Time will tell, but this in as bad as I recall it but its not down to Beatson as its gone on longer than he has been here.

Also Roos was never a fan of drafting Key Position or Rucks due to the extra time they took to develop.

I agree with Roos on this. You draft the best available talent and trade for your needs. It works quite well when you don't have a ridiculous trade ban slapped on you for no reason.

 

[The King!]

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...e-bad-teams-fail/story-e6frf3e3-1227440250300

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Are you not rating the Jesse White trade?
Tony Armstrong?
Come on man!

I feel if Beatson did those trades he would of been lynched out of Sydney

White has been ok for them.