Preview BAILEY LADDER PREDICTOR

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Ironmonger said:
Carlton have a pretty tough draw for the rest of the year, but I can see them acting as a spoiler and upsetting teams like North Melbourne or Collingwood as the finals approach. Those late games against bottom four clubs are often a banana skin for teams around the edge of the eight.

Ultimately there's a lot of randomness in how the bottom few spots on the ladder work out.
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If Carlton beat GC this weekend and due to our % and the current few games against the elite coming up to even make it worse then I see it being out of GC and us for the bottom two.
 
I think bottom 4 could change quite a lot in second half of year. Saints have a tough draw and Suns/Lions should win a few at home. Lions to pick up wins vs Suns/Blues/Dogs at the Gabba. Suns wins against Power/Bombers/Giants at Metricon.

That last game against the dogs could be a win get pick 3 lose get pick 1 scenario.

As per the unwritten laws of any ladder predictor I have Tigers finishing 9th with Giants scraping into 8th
 
Well, here is the Champion Data version which includes % likelihood:

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Albi_Mangler said:
I think bottom 4 could change quite a lot in second half of year. Saints have a tough draw and Suns/Lions should win a few at home. Lions to pick up wins vs Suns/Blues/Dogs at the Gabba. Suns wins against Power/Bombers/Giants at Metricon.

That last game against the dogs could be a win get pick 3 lose get pick 1 scenario.

As per the unwritten laws of any ladder predictor I have Tigers finishing 9th with Giants scraping into 8th
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Hard to see us finishing any higher than 16th. Saints draw is unlikely to impact us - we would have to make up three games on them which is ambitious to say the least. Either Melb or Ess will be three games ahead of us after this round on the assumption we lose to the Swans. Looking like pick three or better to me.
 
For some stupid reason, I think we may come close to rolling the Swans this weekend.

If that happens, we could easily win another 3 or 4 matches, meaning that our first pick may "only" be 3 or 4.

So I'm really feeling conflicted about what I want from our lads this next match. From a long term perspective, it would probably be better or us to either get flogged and Draft Pick 1 or 2 here we come, or lose narrowly for probably the same outcome.
 
All being well, from round 16 we'll have Rockliff, Hanley, Merrett and Martin all back in the team. With Robertson and Harwood also available, we should be able to field a team that's actually fairly close to our best 22.

Here's our draw from rounds 16 to 20:

Melbourne (a)
North Melbourne (h)
Geelong (a)
Gold Coast (h)
Carlton (h)

We should be able to win two, hopefully three, of those. Unfortunately after that our draw gets harder, although I give us a real chance of knocking off the Dogs in round 23.

If we can't at least make a good fist of that period then frankly I don't know what we're doing.

Avoiding the wooden spoon seems like a very modest, very achievable goal in a year when we have failed to meet most expectations.
 
Ironmonger said:
All being well, from round 16 we'll have Rockliff, Hanley, Merrett and Martin all back in the team. With Robertson and Harwood also available, we should be able to field a team that's actually fairly close to our best 22.

Here's our draw from rounds 16 to 20:

Melbourne (a)
North Melbourne (h)
Geelong (a)
Gold Coast (h)
Carlton (h)

We should be able to win two, hopefully three, of those. Unfortunately after that our draw gets harder, although I give us a real chance of knocking off the Dogs in round 23.

If we can't at least make a good fist of that period then frankly I don't know what we're doing.

Avoiding the wooden spoon seems like a very modest, very achievable goal in a year when we have failed to meet most expectations.
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Unfortunately it will only be our best 22 on paper. Of those ins you mention, Stef will be the only one not under done. At the same time, some of the guys who have been playing, have had to play harder, covering for some serious absentees and will be feeling more tired than they might, normally. They will also have a fair period of getting use to playing together and all will be adjusting to new structures.
That said, they are some pretty handy ins, and should have a positive impact. I can see us still only beating *GC & Carlton, but who knows which Melbourne or North Melbourne turn up on their respective rounds.


*GC might only lose if Gaz has a relapse.
 
Skoob said:
Unfortunately it will only be our best 22 on paper. Of those ins you mention, Stef will be the only one not under done. At the same time, some of the guys who have been playing, have had to play harder, covering for some serious absentees and will be feeling more tired than they might, normally. They will also have a fair period of getting use to playing together and all will be adjusting to new structures.
That said, they are some pretty handy ins, and should have a positive impact. I can see us still only beating *GC & Carlton, but who knows which Melbourne or North Melbourne turn up on their respective rounds.


*GC might only lose if Gaz has a relapse.
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Merrett yes, and maybe Rocky, but Hanley shouldn't be underdone.

I definitely don't agree that other players feeling more tired because they've been covering for absentees is a meaningful reason for underperforming. Nor that players should have to get used to playing together; the new guys have all played this season without serious interruption. Everyone should be familiar with the structures.

There is never going to be a point where all of our key players are cherry ripe at the same time. This is as good as it gets.
 
Ironmonger said:
Merrett yes, and maybe Rocky, but Hanley shouldn't be underdone.

I definitely don't agree that other players feeling more tired because they've been covering for absentees is a meaningful reason for underperforming. Nor that players should have to get used to playing together; the new guys have all played this season without serious interruption. Everyone should be familiar with the structures.

There is never going to be a point where all of our key players are cherry ripe at the same time. This is as good as it gets.
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Hanley's played 2 games for the year, so while he may feel fit, I'm not sure he's at his best match fitness. He's already strained a hammy after 1 & a half games.
Clarke has had the weight of the world on his shoulders and the likes of Beams has had to run the mid-field like a madman to cover the lower output of his team-mates. Various roles of players who stay in will change. The team has had some pretty big interruptions as a whole, given the importance of some of the outs, not like losing an Aish or Golby here & there. Key players are what plans and structures are built around, as opposed to bit players that are more easily interchangeable.
We still have the issue of the forward line which won't be fixed, so blokes will continue to be moved around and played out of position.

My point was that neither do I think we will be anywhere near our best, nor will our output reflect "as good as it gets".
 

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Skoob said:
My point was that neither do I think we will be anywhere near our best, nor will our output reflect "as good as it gets".
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I got that, but I don't agree.

To compare us to a similar club, St Kilda had severe list disruption early in the season, but once their veterans returned they were able to play their best footy. Having Montagna, Riewoldt, Ray, Wright and whoever else was injured early didn't throw out their entire season. Nor should it.
 
Rooey missed 4 games and Joey 5. I would argue Ray's importance, and Wright has been out most of the year (certainly for any decent games).
We've missed
Rocky 7
Hanley 10
Merrett 12
We have also missed Gardiner for 6, Harwood for 11, Redden for 3, all arguably near best 22. I don't think the comparison stands up.
These are games missed out of a total of 13 games played, so Rocky has missed 46% of the season. More than maybe you realise.

Whether we go well or poorly, I'd stand by my statement;
My point was that neither do I think we will be anywhere near our best, nor will our output reflect "as good as it gets".
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Hopefully we go well and win more than I expect, because I will still think we'll be much better with a decent run at it next year.
 
There'll never be a perfect comparison, Skoob!

Do you have another team in mind that battled with injury, and didn't see a sharp improvement when several key players returned at the same time?

Honestly, I think your argument is a very hard sell. If a supporter of another club tried to tell me that their form was down late in the season because they had key players injured early in the season, even after those players were available, I'd be very sceptical. I think most people would be.
 
Ironmonger said:
There'll never be a perfect comparison, Skoob!

Do you have another team in mind that battled with injury, and didn't see a sharp improvement when several key players returned at the same time?

Honestly, I think your argument is a very hard sell. If a supporter of another club tried to tell me that their form was down late in the season because they had key players injured early in the season, even after those players were available, I'd be very sceptical. I think most people would be.
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Given our season to date, 2 wins in a row would constitute a "sharp improvement". No would be my response to "do I have another team" to counter your argument. That said, I'm not sure we're arguing quite the same thing, possibly a difference in expectation of what constitutes our "best". 2 or 3 wins was your estimate, mine is similar, but with less confidence. I think at "our best" we would win 3-5 of those games you mentioned. I agree we'll have close to our best players, just arguing whether the team will be at its best.:thumbsu:
 
3 to 4 possible wins vs Melb (A), GC (H), Blues (H) and our whipping boys North (H). It all depends on mental application on both sides and also injuries. I think that all four of these teams would be looking at us thinking that we would be ripe for a win for their teams due to being on the bottom. I'll say two more wins taking us to 16 points. I reckon we will finish with pick 1 or 2 and it will come down to percentage with us and a few other teams.
 
Geez, Skoob, it's a good thing we had that argument about the significance of a shorter injury list when we did.

It didn't last long.
 
And with just the four rounds remaining.....(all based on the default 12 point margins) :cool:

Not sure what would happen with 8th/9th o_O

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