Brownlow Guru Speaks - 2015

[BrownlowGuru]

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.

I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 9 years).

Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Goldstein, Gaff) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.

WIN
Fyfe N (Fre) 2.628
Goldstein T (Kang) 4.426
Gaff A (WCE) 10.56
Hannebery D (Syd) 11.23
Priddis M (WCE) 13.77
Mitchell S (Haw) 13.84
Dangerfield P (Adel) 56.82
Mundy D (Fre) 63.85
Kennedy J (Syd) 76.82
Martin D (Rich) 133.9
Pendlebury S (Coll) 234.4
Gray R (Pt A) 361.0
All others > 1000


PLACE (top 3)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.356
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.730
Hannebery D (Syd) 2.884
Mitchell S (Haw) 3.195
Gaff A (WCE) 3.481
Priddis M (WCE) 3.496
Dangerfield P (Adel) 9.334
Kennedy J (Syd) 10.681
Mundy D (Fre) 12.103
Martin D (Rich) 19.784
Pendlebury S (Coll) 26.826
Gray R (Pt A) 41.500
Armitage D (St K) 57.749
Jones N (Melb) 118.727
Swan D (Coll) 205.135
Neale L (Fre) 250.819
Cotchin T (Rich) 329.166
Steven J (St K) 330.948
Wallis M (WB) 343.161
Boak T (Pt A) 360.697
All others > 500


PLACE (top 5)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.134
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.295
Hannebery D (Syd) 1.730
Mitchell S (Haw) 1.799
Priddis M (WCE) 2.017
Gaff A (WCE) 2.223
Dangerfield P (Adel) 3.876
Kennedy J (Syd) 4.230
Mundy D (Fre) 5.055
Martin D (Rich) 7.169
Pendlebury S (Coll) 8.652
Gray R (Pt A) 12.978
Armitage D (St K) 16.186
Jones N (Melb) 29.017
Swan D (Coll) 51.513
Neale L (Fre) 66.449
Cotchin T (Rich) 68.399
Boak T (Pt A) 70.213
Wallis M (WB) 78.458
Steven J (St K) 84.061
Ward C (GWS) 119.677
Ellis B (Rich) 121.066
Jacobs S (Adel) 201.641
Mitchell T (Syd) 221.965
All others > 250

 

[BrownlowGuru]

I've released the Win and Place predictions a little earlier this year, whileI will continue posting in this thread I will not be releasing the Exotic Markets (Rnd 5 leader / teams / groups etc.) through BigFooty this year.

Please PM me for any queries you have on this.

 

[Shane Hird]

Bring back the Brownlow winning ruckman!!

 

[james Dean]

Anybody made money off this guy? I remember seeing him the past couple of years but has anyone used his advice?

 

[10571z]

Dangerfield only a $50 chance?

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Historical predictions below.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2014.1077291
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2013.1032770
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2012.973714
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2011.874129
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-brownlow-guru-speaks-2010.756671/
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-brownlow-guru-speaks-2009.632763
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-brownlow-guru-speaks-again.495837
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-brownlow-guru-has-spoken.375020

 

[trossa]

I've won a fair bit off him the past few years, the guy is definitely good. Thanks.

 

[Defacto]

he seems far too hit and miss on the winner

 

[TheRoo32]

Your system clearly underrates Dangerfield

 

[Lensen]

is the reason you aren't releasing exotics because you are charging for them somewhere?

 

[kaiserchief13]

Dangerfield $56! Surely not serious BG.....

 

[TheFVK]

Anybody made money off this guy? I remember seeing him the past couple of years but has anyone used his advice?

Yep I made a good amount using his tips in 2011, 2012, 2013 in particular backing Swan and Watson a couple years back. Welcome back BG.

 

[Slats]

Love your work BG.

 

[Slats]

Yep I made a good amount using his tips in 2011, 2012, 2013 in particular backing Swan and Watson a couple years back.

Same here.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

N Jones ahead of B Vince?

Pretty good pick up on Dom Tyson as a chance to place last year - ended up coming something like 15th with the most votes of midfielders 21 and under which I don't think anyone expected.

 

[DangerSloane]

Yeh dangerfield at 50+ is ludacris.
He was $60 to 1 last year and finished 4th.

In a worse season, where Adelaide won less games.

For reference the Brownlow 'Guru' had dangerfield at over $1000 to 1 last year.

 

[kangars]

Brownlow guru won me some good Cashola back in 2011

I've got $20 each way on dangerfield at 23s which one still happy with despite bg giving him huge odds.

I am liking the odds for Goldstein though. He's paying 2.2 on betfair for a top 5 finish

 

[ManWithNoName]

People who criticise him don't understand how he works.

Read his post, properly, and you'll be fine.

 

[galindez]

I've had success listening to this guy before. Good way to identify value.

 

[Del80659]

the year dane swan won it, i won some good money because of you. i think i'll give it another go!

 

[BrownlowGuru]

is the reason you aren't releasing exotics because you are charging for them somewhere?

Pretty much.

Other factors have me considering whether I can justify the time required for this in 2016. If there is enough interest I'll continue doing it, otherwise it probably won't get the attention needed.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Dangerfield $56! Surely not serious BG.....

Dangerfield is the certainly the one that my model differs the most with.

According to my model, he's had a very similar year to 2014 - but I don't expect him to get the same armchair ride from the umpires. Even if he does - I'm expecting the winner to get around 26-28 votes, and it's unlikely he's going to get those numbers

 

[Papa G]

Your system clearly underrates Dangerfield

Confirms BrownlowGuru is not part of the Adelaide media.

 

[Iron]

Confirms BrownlowGuru is not part of the Adelaide media.

Yep. Only Adelaide rate Danger. Pretty much a hack.

 

[Papa G]

Think he's rated in Geelong too.