Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Thus, as a prediction tool, it is extremely limited. I swear some people have been basing the outcomes of this whole season on the forecasting of the squiggle.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Thus, as a prediction tool, it is extremely limited. I swear some people have been basing the outcomes of this whole season on the forecasting of the squiggle.
Most people acknowledge that it's not perfect. However, it's pretty much as good a prediction tool as you will get and generates interesting discussion. It's very useful for mapping performance against previous premiership sides - something that's hard to do elsewhere.
It had a WC v Hawthorn GF for a long time this season- still looks like the most likely outcome to me.
And finally, a game the algorithms can agree on:
SQUIGGLE:Richmond 89 - 74 North Melbourne
HOMER: Richmond
FLAGPOLE: Richmond
Richmond and algorithms are like oil and water.
kaiserchief13
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Doesn't look like the squiggle factored in finals intensity.
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Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
And the squiggle crashes and burns again. Picked 1 winner out of 4 games. Even my kids could do better than that. Squiggle is getting very close to having the credibility of Roby's Power Rankings.
SJ
Premium Platinum
Your kids can watch the footy.
The Squiggle doesn't, nor does it pretend to.
Did your kids (or you) tip more winners than The Squiggle this year?
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
No, statistically it doesn't. 10% of qualifying finals losers make the grand final. Hawthorn has not won a final outside Victoria
Yes.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Actually, no it doesn't. 10% of qualifying finals losers make the grand final. Hawthorn has not won a final outside Victoria in the history of the AFL. A Hawthorn v WC grand final is statistically the most unlikely outcome by a long way.
Would make you a rarity on BF as Squiggs finished in equal 56th after round 23, despite watching zero games.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Do you get an award for finishing equal 56th?
Out of 1500 it's a pretty good effort.
Even if Fremantle wins the premiership this year it doesn't particularly damage the cred of the squiggle, as winner with high defence + low attack happen - they're just rare.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Forget Freo, it got 3 out of 4 finals tips wrong.
I highly doubt there is any other reason for your sudden distaste for the Squiggle.
Final Siren has repeatedly said that Squiggs doesn't have a great finals record, which is why he also puts up HOMER, which is marginally better at finals. And, indeed, that's how it panned out, as it tipped Freo instead of Sydney.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
I've never rated it actually.
Well, good for you. It's a useful chart with a good record.
That's nice.
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Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Because I have a different opinion? What are you, a facist?
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Because you are arguing against a statistical model because it doesn't rate your team, using evidence like "my kids are better tippers".
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Nice way to misquote someone. Do you work in journalism? As I've already said three times, the criticism is due to picking 1 out of 4 finals. The only excuse for not comprehending would be holding a malicious intent to misrepresent, which I suspect is the case.
I don't see you spending your free time trying to create an algorithm which on the most part is bloody impressively statistically accurate. Form lines were ruined by teams resting in the tail end of the season. If you don't like **** off and make your own.
E92_
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I'll answer this with the same answer I gave you in the personal message you sent me.
"Mate you're whinging like a 2 year old on the main board. Grow up!"
Awkward for spoken, but in the last 5-6 years they've had two interstate finals and lost them both.
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