Analysis Father Son and Academy players bidding system

[*PAF]

On a closer look, the system actually seems half decent.

Melbourne bidding pick 2 for Heeney, with Sydney having pick 18 is an extreme example. It's the difference in values of the first round picks that make a big difference.


Seems like in other scenarios, it'll pretty much pan out as is.

If the number of academies increase then this "extreme" will become the norm and for mine it is too extreme and should be fixed.
FS are a great tradition and one we need to keep.

 

[rogerjames]

How long are Port off having FS qualifying criteria based on 100 games by Power players or does this criteria apply now but the kids are too young at this stage (way too young).

I think they introduced this at least a year too late. Heeney is a beauty. Think he will go on to win a BM.

 

[*PAF]

The only issue with Heeney is that he went to Sydney and not GWS.
Sydney have access to FS rules just like any other club and are better placed than Port, Crows and Freo.

 

[PAFC04]

The father and son rule has a nice sentiment, but I think its worth shelving the concept, money will always win out in the end.......as it does now.


I will get me own coat and door....

 

[Portmanteau]

If the number of academies increase then this "extreme" will become the norm and for mine it is too extreme and should be fixed.
FS are a great tradition and one we need to keep.

I don't think there should be academies in the traditional AFL states. I'll leave it there.

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

I like the father son concept, and all clubs having academy teams.

 

[TeeKray]

If every club has academies we might as well just get rid of the draft altogether.

 

[noffle]

The red curve looks like a terrible fit for the blue curve - consistently overvaluing high draft picks.

 

[FallingLiefs]

2013 "Polec Trade"

Port offer 14,34 (1703)
for 21,22,45 (2070)



2014 "Ryder Trade"
Port offer 17,37 effective value pick 8. whats that Essendon? pick 8 is unders and you want Wingard also? hmmm...

This will quicken up trade week 10 fold. especially when the formula is contract dollar value based. Won't be long before there is a "suggested value" of a player on the contract he is offered.

 

[*PAF]

I don't think there should be academies in the traditional AFL states. I'll leave it there.

Nah, it's a fair point.
Looks as if Collingwood etc are saying that if they have one we want one too and on that basis the number of academies will increase, but as you are rightly implying that wasn't the original intent of creating academies in NSW and QLD.

The only reason people are up in arms is that they see Sydney as already having too many leg ups, even though it is achieving the aim of increasing the number of local players playing for teams in non traditional states.

 

[VineValerian]

Given we continually talk about father sons on this board and last year we snagged Howard and Austin from the GWS Academy, as they were overlooked by them, and future we might want to draft a player and might make the northern teams pay proper amount, I figure a refererence thread rather than stuff all over the Genral AFL thread is better.

My personal belief is that this system will eventually open it up for Port Adelaide to one day have a fully integrated Academy program, even more so than currently and we will use this bidding system as a way to get access to top end talent out of the Port Adelaide Football Academy.

Emma Quayle in her article gave a good summary of the basic workings. She also talks about how if the bidding one day will be done live on draft day it will make it a better system

New bidding system looks fairer for all
.......
GWS has two players likely to attract top-10 bids this year – Jacob Hopper and Matt Kennedy. Sydney has Callum Mills and potential father-son Josh Dunkley on the way.

So, do those clubs trade out a star this year to gain extra "points"? Do they decide they're well placed enough to concede their first pick in the 2016 draft? Do they wait until then to trade out for points they need? One thing is for sure: they're going to have to cast ahead as comprehensively as possible.
.....
Having to make tough decisions will mean the four clubs simply won't have the capacity to take every available player. They will have to let some go. Some of those players will be good players, who will strengthen the draft pool. What will make the new system perfect is if bidding is done live on draft night. Hopefully that will happen as soon as this year.

Under the outgoing system (where bidding was done before trading) clubs have not wanted to risk bidding picks they already have tied up in looming trades, or got together with others that morning to make sure someone sticks their hand up. They've bid for players knowing full well that the bid would be matched and that any bluff would not be called. Live bidding would mean recruiters know exactly which other players are still on the board when deciding whether to place a bid or match one. It would also liven up draft night.


New bidding system looks fairer for all
The new bidding system explained

• Applies to father-son and northern academy players (Swans Academy, Giants Academy, Suns Academy and Lions Academy).

• Every pick from 1-73 has been assigned a number of points on the Draft Value Index, which was created using player salary data from 2000-14 – ie, what the players chosen at each pick have gone on to earn. From pick 74, picks have zero value.

• A minimum 20% discount has been applied to both father-son and academy players, to encourage clubs to continue investing in their eligible players.

• From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.

• If a club chooses to match a bid for one of its player, it must effectively "buy" the pick used to bid for him using its points.

• If a club doesn't have enough points to match the bid with its next available selection, further points will be deducted from its subsequent pick (and possibly one or two after that), with those picks moving down the order or to the back of the draft.

• Draft picks will move up and down as bids are made and matched.

• Clubs that do not have enough picks in one draft to match all bids will be in deficit heading into the following year's draft, with the remaining points to be deducted from their first round selection.

New bidding system looks fairer for all

another article from Emma explaining it further.
Clubs to pay high price for top-end draft talent under new bidding rules

You can download the 15 page booklet either at the first link as a pdf or the second as power point
Biding System PDF
Bidding System Power Point

A cut and paste from the document

AFL Draft Value Index Graph
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Blue line - Raw data (AFL player salaries)
Red line - AFL Draft Value Index graph


AFL Draft Value Index
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Here are a couple of long articles on the AFL site explaining things and northern clubs saying they are happy.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-...ed-for-fatherson-and-northern-academy-players

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-...system-closes-fatherson-and-academy-loopholes

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-21/northern-clubs-in-favour-of-new-bidding-system

I think this could be a good idea.
However, it does seem slightly confusing to the layman.
Here is my much simplified version......

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Zones are being heavily pushed by multiple administrators from multiple clubs. It's increasingly likely that port adelaide could regain its zone.

Yep and the AFL website put up this story last night, which confirms my thoughts in the opening post of this thread that we might be able to "eventually open it up for Port Adelaide to one day have a fully integrated Academy program."

AFL may consider reintroducing recruiting zones for all 18 clubs
Callum TwomeyMay 22, 2015 7:03 AM
THE ERA of recruiting zones could be revisited under a plan being pushed by club officials that would see every club have priority access to its own academy.

As the AFL continues to review the best talent pathway for draft prospects, the renewed calls have come during a review of the second-tier competitions, which is being headed by former AFL Commissioner Bill Kelty.

The talent pathway is one of the key areas under inspection, and it is understood club officials meeting with the League have raised the concept of dividing regions across the country into recruiting zones.

Under the idea, the zones would then allow each club to develop an academy similar to that housed by the four northern clubs. Clubs would also have first rights over selecting players who have been developed within their respective regions.
.......
AFL may consider reintroducing recruiting zones for all 18 clubs

 

[Jim Dixon]

How long are Port off having FS qualifying criteria based on 100 games by Power players or does this criteria apply now but the kids are too young at this stage (way too young).

I think they introduced this at least a year too late. Heeney is a beauty. Think he will go on to win a BM.

How old is Tex Wanganeen? We're probably six or seven years off having F/S from Power listed players.

You can imagine Essendon will do us no favours if we want to draft young Tex, after the whole Paddy Ryder thing.

 

[*PAF]

How old is Tex Wanganeen? We're probably six or seven years off having F/S from Power listed players.

You can imagine Essendon will do us no favours if we want to draft young Tex, after the whole Paddy Ryder thing.

They wouldn't have done us any favours before the Paddy Ryder thing.
* em.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

How old is Tex Wanganeen? We're probably six or seven years off having F/S from Power listed players.

You can imagine Essendon will do us no favours if we want to draft young Tex, after the whole Paddy Ryder thing.

My Essendon supporting brother inlaw last year sent me video of Tex in a Essendon jumper, think he was a mascot for a game. They have a father son academy and he has been invited to attend functions for that. He turns 12 some time this year. From a story in December when Wangers had a second daughter with his second wife, which is his third daughter in total. Apparently Wangers want to have more kids. Hopefully the next kid is a boy as Tex is by himself.

Link
Weighing 2.97kg, Lulu is a sister to 15-month old Kitty Emerald, and Wanganeen’s two other children — daughter Mia, 14, and son Tex, 11 — from his previous marriage.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

So 5 months on are people getting a hang of this points per draft pick system? Worked out how to calculate the bidding process for father son and academy players.

The bidding is live for academy players. This article from the Herald Sun explains how it will work

AFL Draft 2015 - New Bidding system
AFL recruiters will no longer read out the names of their draftees on draft night in sweeping changes to how the event is staged. Instead, they will type the names into a new computer system with the AFL to tick off each pick before it is announced on Fox Footy.

Clubs will this year sit in a separate room, still in a horseshoe shape but separated by partitions for extra privacy and the broadcast will stay glued to every selection rather than switching to a panel after the first round. Draft night will be transformed into a television event for this year’s function, which has been shifted from Gold Coast to Adelaide.

Recruiters will still have two minutes per selection plus two minutes of extra time available, while Fox Footy will be able to pause the draft to briefly discuss selections. But recruiters can leave their calculators at home with new Champion Data software - designed with the AFL over several months - dealing with the messy maths of the league’s radical new bidding system that allows live changes to the draft order.

Should a club want to draft an academy or father-son prospect, the software will throw to the club which has the opportunity to match the bid. Loaded with the complicated algorithm, it will immediately detail to that team exactly how matching the bid will affect its draft position.




Clubs were briefed on the system today and have been given two weeks to test it, loaded with 2014 data. They will partake in a full rehearsal mock draft on October 23 as the AFL seeks to iron out any bugs.
AFL Draft 2015 - New Bidding system

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Oh and according to above article looks like there might be a few academy player and 2 father son picks this year

Gold Coast is a chance to bid pick 3 for Sydney academy star Callum Mills while GWS-bound Jacob Hopper and Matthew Kennedy are likely to command top-10 selections. Brisbane Lions academy gems Eric Hipwood and Ben Keays are also worth first-round picks, adding a new dimension to this year’s draft.
....
Tough half-back Bailey Rice is expected to cost St Kilda or Carlton a second-round pick — he is eligible to both as a father-son — while Jack Silvagni should come relatively cheaply to the Blues.

 

[Garibaldi Red]

Oh and according to above article looks like there might be a few academy player and 2 father son picks this year

Gold Coast is a chance to bid pick 3 for Sydney academy star Callum Mills while GWS-bound Jacob Hopper and Matthew Kennedy are likely to command top-10 selections. Brisbane Lions academy gems Eric Hipwood and Ben Keays are also worth first-round picks, adding a new dimension to this year’s draft.
....
Tough half-back Bailey Rice is expected to cost St Kilda or Carlton a second-round pick — he is eligible to both as a father-son — while Jack Silvagni should come relatively cheaply to the Blues.

Bailey Rice has nominated St Kilda according to this article by Emma Quayle


http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ilda-as-a-fatherson-pick-20151014-gk97ez.html

 

[*PAF]

Have to admit that originally I thought it was a bit of a meh. An improvement on the old third rounder but still meh.

Having seen the recent trade period, then depending on how the bidding goes this year, it could turn out to be the most positive change the AFL has introduced, ever.


As REH mentioned in his opening post it could even allow zones to make a comeback and still help the northern clubs by giving them a higher discount. Say 20% for clubs from established states and 25% to the northern states.


The big shitfight will be the zones.
As we have too many clubs in Victoria it cannot be as simple as state based and say Mt Gambier could easily end up being part of a Vic team's zone. However with a bit of determination and some accurate stats regarding population draft history etc it could happen.

REH also asked in his opening post how good will draft night be if the bidding was done live? Didn't quite get it when I first read it, but yeah, how good would it be?
We could get to see bluffs that pay off, and some where a team gets stuck with a player they don't really want plus lose the picks they used for the bluff.
Another positive will be when a number of clubs have to use multiple picks to make up numbers. Something like pick 50 could end up being 40 or even better but noone will know until draft night.

Wow!! This could turn out to be uniquely exciting stuff.

REH or Portia should start a thread to not only guess who we will draft but at what pick.

 

[tribey]

How long are Port off having FS qualifying criteria based on 100 games by Power players or does this criteria apply now but the kids are too young at this stage (way too young).

I think they introduced this at least a year too late. Heeney is a beauty. Think he will go on to win a BM.

Two of Peter Burgoyne's sons are around 13/14.

Lade's eldest is about that age.

 

[raptalia]

Pretty soon the Australian Universities will offer a Bachelor of AFL Rules degree on their calendar. The way things are headed BAFLR is pretty apt.

Albeit in the name of fairness the AFL keep on devising rules to get around situations created by their own rules.

Apologies for the hyperbole REH but I could not resist.

 

[Portia]

The exploits illustrated by GC & GWS in collecting shitpicks for bidding during this year's trade period are a great example of why this bidding system is broken as badly as FA compensation.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Pretty soon the Australian Universities will offer a Bachelor of AFL Rules degree on their calendar. The way things are headed BAFLR is pretty apt.

Albeit in the name of fairness the AFL keep on devising rules to get around situations created by their own rules.

Apologies for the hyperbole REH but I could not resist.

Almost there: http://www.aflsportsready.com.au/ab...flinders-university-to-provide-study-pathways

 

[demon inda sack]

The exploits illustrated by GC & GWS in collecting shitpicks for bidding during this year's trade period are a great example of why this bidding system is broken as badly as FA compensation.

It generates trades, I see it evening out over the entire trade, free agency and draft period. My ideal footballing world is one without extended time down the bottom of the ladder rebuilding. Having the ability to regenerate a list in a couple of off seasons, Geelong this year good is a good example. I have said this before but a clubs biggest weapon is their salary cap.

 

[Portia]

It generates trades, I see it evening out over the entire trade, free agency and draft period.

Yeah, but it doesn't.

FA is simple; its easy to see two clubs co-ordinating to the detriment of the league (eg. when one club lets a compensation pick be generated, which is taken into account for the other club in a side trade). We were doing this as far back as 1996 when our claiming of Ian Downsborough (sorting West Coast into a #1 pick) got us a sweet side deal on Shane Bond and Brayden Lyle. Good for those clubs, but it comes at a cost to all teams - players are removed from the draft, and each player removed effectively bumps everyone else's picks down a spot...and that has different impacts at different points.

The Isaac Heeney example given is ok, but you know what happens that no-one really notices even in the revised scenario? Melbourne still ends up effectively getting pick #3 instead of pick #2 - that isn't corrected, and the value difference between picks 2 and 3 is significant.

The ability for clubs with Academy players to trade out middling picks for a mass of picks in second and third rounds is good for the club picking Academy players, and its good for the team trading up s**t picks (a little, anyway), but the cost is paid by any team now effectively bumped down the draft order when Syd/Bris/GWS/GC make their counterbids - they lose first round placing.

My ideal footballing world is one without extended time down the bottom of the ladder rebuilding. Having the ability to regenerate a list in a couple of off seasons, Geelong this year good is a good example. I have said this before but a clubs biggest weapon is their salary cap.

You would be able to do this with a draft age raised to the early 20s. 18 year olds will always need development. Letting good sides claim draftees very cheaply only prolongs the time other sides will spend at the bottom.