Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[Soapy V]

I know he's bit of a biscuit, and I can't see it happening, but I'd love it if we signed Michael Hurley as a DFA. Love it .

good player but is he what we need? i reckon we need more gun midfielders whi can kick and a key forward

 

[Soapy V]

Yep no one will go near him.

whoever did this deal should never work in the afl again. its wrong from all angles. 5 years, big money for an injury prone player past his best which restricts our ability to recruit, cost us the betts draft pick. i struggle to see anyone with any sense at all would do that deal.

we could of picked up a hartung, taylor, merrett for the betts pick at a fraction of the cost

 

[ferrisb]

This should not be disgust on this forum, back on topic!

I sea what you did their...

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Disagree . Some players you have to protect yes. Others are a step above - he is one of them. Did WCE protect Judd?

I get that argument but I think a KPD is different. Judd played an outside role with Kerr, Cousins etc around him. His natural speed an endurance was enough.

We're asking Weitering to play a key defensive post, which requires significant physical strength in a shite backline, in a shite team. There is a danger to him both physically and mentally if he gets thrown to the wolves in those circumstances.

 

[HARKER]

good player but is he what we need? i reckon we need more gun midfielders whi can kick and a key forward

We do need midfielders and player availability and quality may largely determine which way we'll go. Talls, Mids, Forwards?

I think the idea may be to assemble a squad that's capable of being more than just competitive in 3-4 years time and that means having the right age profile and talent base to give ourselves several years of being able to launch for the ultimate prize.
There's no point of getting into the eight and then having to bottom out again.

There may be many ways of getting there but picking the right way is the real tricky part.

 

[Soapy V]

We're asking Weitering to play a key defensive post, which requires significant physical strength in a shite backline, in a shite team. There is a danger to him both physically and mentally if he gets thrown to the wolves in those circumstances.

is there really a difference these days? can you really protect a player in games? its about match ups. bolton will put him on the player he believes suits. weitering jamison & rowe/white/jaksch will be our bigger defenders.

 

[Jabba73]

I sea what you did their...

Knowed out about chew.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

is there really a difference these days? can you really protect a player in games? its about match ups. bolton will put him on the player he believes suits. weitering jamison & rowe/white/jaksch will be our bigger defenders.

Keep him out there sure. I just don't want to see him going toe to toe with Josh Kennedy or Buddy for long periods.

 

[Soapy V]

Keep him out there sure. I just don't want to see him going toe to toe with Josh Kennedy or Buddy for long periods.

i understand your point but i just think weitering is the type that would handle it. putting him in buddy or kennedy would be seen as a challenge for him more than a negative

 

[Coona Blues]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised should Rowe be given another year if he can perform at least half well, or better, he finds his 2014 form.

I would be surprised should Foster show something. Nothing against the kid but you can see he tries yet somehow finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. I know we've trialled him back but he's just about as invisible there as he can be up forward. Will take a big 2016 for him to remain, I feel.

Matty411 on 15/12
Rowe and Foster were first cabs off the rank – was good to see ‘Fozzie’ burn away, showing nice agility and desire.

Passmark 20/12
Foster. I saw him and had to wait till he got closer to identify him. Looked a million dollars in some of the circle work warm up drills. Changing direction, marking, and kicking were sublime. When he goes tall He marks the ball at a point higher than anyone on the list that I could see and recovers really well at ground level. Didn't see him in the competitive drills but if you didn't know who he was and saw him having a kick at your local park you'd stick a rookie contract under his nose on ability alone. Looks very agile ATM, which is not something I would have said based on the other times I've seen him.

Blues_fest 20/12
26_Foster
Passmark said it above, but i really had to look this guy up as i couldn't figure out who it was.. Was very impressive. Great mark and kick. ALso just researched that the knock on him is speed, but i thought his agility and movement was ok.

I love your regular reports HARKER, but sometimes we need to be reminded that we all have favourites and those we are less focussed on. Foster had an injury punctuated first season and is about to commence his 2nd season as a KPP. Most key position players take a minimum of three years to show something at the top level. Foster was the leading goalkicker in the TAC cup, has good skills and kicking, and the ability to find separation on the lead. You regularly suggest of the nightmare of playing as a key forward at the Northern Blues, yet cut him no slack after an injury punctuated first season . You have suggested that SOS wants to rid us of the "Rogers boys" and put his own stamp on things. Surely the boy gets a chance to show his wares before being written off.

We have so many KPP "kids" now to go with the ageing Jammo and Rowey, along with the limited Levi and some pinch hitters. We do not have the trade capital to be hitting the period hard. Even if we can acquire a Tomlinson type, we need depth. It makes no sense to dump another (Watson, Giles) semi developed KPP and source under achieving high profile picks such as Jones and Gorringe. Foster does not even have to get regular game time in the top team to justify a spot. We need depth players rather than a log jam of developing high draft picks to be able to provide adequate back up at a bargain basement price, while allowing the big bikkies to be better spent ($Jones$). I could quote the significant number of long term "back up/developing" KPP on other lists if you so desire.

Foster is seemingly being groomed as a swingman. The silver lining to the McKay LTI is that the likes of Foster and Jaksch will get time to show their talents among our developing tall forwards.....and Jones.

 

[Windhover]

I get that argument but I think a KPD is different. Judd played an outside role with Kerr, Cousins etc around him. His natural speed an endurance was enough.

We're asking Weitering to play a key defensive post, which requires significant physical strength in a shite backline, in a shite team. There is a danger to him both physically and mentally if he gets thrown to the wolves in those circumstances.

I originally was of your opinion regarding big W and have posted that he should play no more than 9 games carefully selected to avoid being monstered by the big tall forwards. And I agree to some extent with your comments re Judd.

Having seen W play has changed my mind somewhat. He is a very natural footballer. He knows when to spoil, when to mark. He knows when to play on and when to go back and take his kick. He knows when to play loose and when to play tight. He appears to move, like Rhys Jones did, slowly as if he has all the time in the world. I think he will be very hard to monster. He is bigger than Ben Hart (who achieved AA selection in his first season playing as a third tall defender) and seems no less talented though expecting him to be AA is a huge call.

W is certainly entitled on form to play in the starting 22. That should be the end of the argument. If, as the season progresses, he appears to need a break or a spell in the magoos then I would agree with you that this should be done, sacrificing this year for our longer term interests. But this can be monitored as we go and need not be the subject of definitive ruling now. And of course he should be protected from being monstered. When at any stage he is being physically done over by his opponent he should be removed and not hung out to dry.

 

[thylacine60]

whoever did this deal should never work in the afl again. its wrong from all angles. 5 years, big money for an injury prone player past his best which restricts our ability to recruit, cost us the betts draft pick. i struggle to see anyone with any sense at all would do that deal.

we could of picked up a hartung, taylor, merrett for the betts pick at a fraction of the cost

His manager did the deal. That's who did the deal. He's still laughing.

 

[HARKER]

Matty411 on 15/12
Rowe and Foster were first cabs off the rank – was good to see ‘Fozzie’ burn away, showing nice agility and desire.

Passmark 20/12
Foster. I saw him and had to wait till he got closer to identify him. Looked a million dollars in some of the circle work warm up drills. Changing direction, marking, and kicking were sublime. When he goes tall He marks the ball at a point higher than anyone on the list that I could see and recovers really well at ground level. Didn't see him in the competitive drills but if you didn't know who he was and saw him having a kick at your local park you'd stick a rookie contract under his nose on ability alone. Looks very agile ATM, which is not something I would have said based on the other times I've seen him.

Blues_fest 20/12
26_Foster
Passmark said it above, but i really had to look this guy up as i couldn't figure out who it was.. Was very impressive. Great mark and kick. ALso just researched that the knock on him is speed, but i thought his agility and movement was ok.

I love your regular reports HARKER, but sometimes we need to be reminded that we all have favourites and those we are less focussed on. Foster had an injury punctuated first season and is about to commence his 2nd season as a KPP. Most key position players take a minimum of three years to show something at the top level. Foster was the leading goalkicker in the TAC cup, has good skills and kicking, and the ability to find separation on the lead. You regularly suggest of the nightmare of playing as a key forward at the Northern Blues, yet cut him no slack after an injury punctuated first season . You have suggested that SOS wants to rid us of the "Rogers boys" and put his own stamp on things. Surely the boy gets a chance to show his wares before being written off.

We have so many KPP "kids" now to go with the ageing Jammo and Rowey, along with the limited Levi and some pinch hitters. We do not have the trade capital to be hitting the period hard. Even if we can acquire a Tomlinson type, we need depth. It makes no sense to dump another (Watson, Giles) semi developed KPP and source under achieving high profile picks such as Jones and Gorringe. Foster does not even have to get regular game time in the top team to justify a spot. We need depth players rather than a log jam of developing high draft picks to be able to provide adequate back up at a bargain basement price, while allowing the big bikkies to be better spent ($Jones$). I could quote the significant number of long term "back up/developing" KPP on other lists if you so desire.

Foster is seemingly being groomed as a swingman. The silver lining to the McKay LTI is that the likes of Foster and Jaksch will get time to show their talents among our developing tall forwards.....and Jones.

I'm not passing judgement upon Foster on the strength of only a few training sessions alone.
I did watch him last year through the VFL also and at no time did he really show anything special other than for one match where we won by 20 odd goals.
Foster is only half a year younger than Jaksch and also turning 21 in a couple of months.

He may well make it but one thing I've come to terms with that a big man with little presence, will find it hard at the top level.
I feel the same way on what I've seen of Gorringe, yet just-turned 18 year olds in McKay and Weitering display plenty of presence.

Some players do take longer than others I know, but I also know that SOS isn't a particularly patient man.

 

[P_Crippy]

I sea what you did their...

You should of

 

[bluedabadee]

I think Daisy will have a ripper year and a few will be eating humble pie.. Well I hope so anyway

The skipper agrees

 

[Omega Blue]

I originally was of your opinion regarding big W and have posted that he should play no more than 9 games carefully selected to avoid being monstered by the big tall forwards. And I agree to some extent with your comments re Judd.

Having seen W play has changed my mind somewhat. He is a very natural footballer. He knows when to spoil, when to mark. He knows when to play on and when to go back and take his kick. He knows when to play loose and when to play tight. He appears to move, like Rhys Jones did, slowly as if he has all the time in the world. I think he will be very hard to monster. He is bigger than Ben Hart (who achieved AA selection in his first season playing as a third tall defender) and seems no less talented though expecting him to be AA is a huge call.

W is certainly entitled on form to play in the starting 22. That should be the end of the argument. If, as the season progresses, he appears to need a break or a spell in the magoos then I would agree with you that this should be done, sacrificing this year for our longer term interests. But this can be monitored as we go and need not be the subject of definitive ruling now. And of course he should be protected from being monstered. When at any stage he is being physically done over by his opponent he should be removed and not hung out to dry.

Ben Hart made the aa team with an average of 12 disposals and 3 marks per game, I'm sure weitering can do that.

 

[ajb72]

Wow, yesterday I had only 4 players who would get us a potential first round pick ex cripps who is NFT.

Now going through the list I only see 4 players who would get us a potential second rd pick (Graham, Boekhurst, Docherty & Everitt (2nd/3rd rd)).
The only 1 I would possibly consider trading is Everitt.

TBH I dont think we are going to see a lot of action next trade period. Draft and maybe 1 or 2 trades.

 

[ajb72]

For what its worth (i.e. nothing):

2016 Trade Value (End 2016) Round Note
6. Kade Simpson (Veteran from 2015) nil
7. Dylan Buckley low 3rd
12. Blaine Boekhorst mid/low 2nd/3rd
16. Dillon Viojo-Rainbow nil
17. Sam Rowe nil
22. Jason Tutt nil
24. Mark Whiley very low <= 3rd round
25. Clem Smith low
26. Jayden Foster ?
27. Dennis Armfield nil
29. Billy Gowers (Rookie)? ?
31. Matthew Dick? nil
32. Nick Graham mid 2nd More value to keep
33. Andrejs Everitt (1yr option activated) mid/low 2nd/3rd more likely third
41. Levi Casboult high/mid end of 1st/2nd
42. Zac Tuohy
36. Cameron Wood (2nd year Rookie) nil
46. Matthew Wright nil
2017
1. Andrew Walker (Veteran from 2015) nil
8. Matthew Kreuzer high/mid end of 1st/2nd
14. Liam Jones nil
18. Kristian Jaksch (with a 4th year option) low
35. Ed Curnow low
38. Ciaran Byrne (Category B International Rookie) nil
39. Dale Thomas (with a 5th year option) low
40. Michael Jamison nil
43. Simon White low
48. Matt Korcheck(Category B International Rookie) nil
23. Jacob Weitering N/A
10. Harry McKay N/A
30. Charlie Curnow N/A
28. David Cuningham N/A
2. Jack Silvagni N/A
2018
3. Marc Murphy high
15. Sam Docherty mid
2019
4. Bryce Gibbs high
9. Patrick Cripps NFT
Unknown
11. Sam Kerridge ? N/A
13. Jed Lamb ? N/A
19. Liam Sumner ? N/A
20. Lachie Plowman ? N/A
34. Andrew Phillips ? N/A
37. Daniel Gorringe ? N/A
Rookies:
47. Jesse Glass-McCasker ? (1st year Rookie) nil
45. Andrew Gallucci ? (1st year Rookie) nil
21. Ciaran Sheehan ? (Category A International Rookie) nil

 

[ferrisb]

For what its worth (i.e. nothing):

2016 Trade Value (End 2016) Round Note
6. Kade Simpson (Veteran from 2015) nil
7. Dylan Buckley low 3rd
12. Blaine Boekhorst mid/low 2nd/3rd
16. Dillon Viojo-Rainbow nil
17. Sam Rowe nil
22. Jason Tutt nil
24. Mark Whiley very low <= 3rd round
25. Clem Smith low
26. Jayden Foster ?
27. Dennis Armfield nil
29. Billy Gowers (Rookie)? ?
31. Matthew Dick? nil
32. Nick Graham mid 2nd More value to keep
33. Andrejs Everitt (1yr option activated) mid/low 2nd/3rd more likely third
41. Levi Casboult high/mid end of 1st/2nd
42. Zac Tuohy
36. Cameron Wood (2nd year Rookie) nil
46. Matthew Wright nil
2017
1. Andrew Walker (Veteran from 2015) nil
8. Matthew Kreuzer high/mid end of 1st/2nd
14. Liam Jones nil
18. Kristian Jaksch (with a 4th year option) low
35. Ed Curnow low
38. Ciaran Byrne (Category B International Rookie) nil
39. Dale Thomas (with a 5th year option) low
40. Michael Jamison nil
43. Simon White low
48. Matt Korcheck(Category B International Rookie) nil
23. Jacob Weitering N/A
10. Harry McKay N/A
30. Charlie Curnow N/A
28. David Cuningham N/A
2. Jack Silvagni N/A
2018
3. Marc Murphy high
15. Sam Docherty mid
2019
4. Bryce Gibbs high
9. Patrick Cripps NFT
Unknown
11. Sam Kerridge ? N/A
13. Jed Lamb ? N/A
19. Liam Sumner ? N/A
20. Lachie Plowman ? N/A
34. Andrew Phillips ? N/A
37. Daniel Gorringe ? N/A
Rookies:
47. Jesse Glass-McCasker ? (1st year Rookie) nil
45. Andrew Gallucci ? (1st year Rookie) nil
21. Ciaran Sheehan ? (Category A International Rookie) nil

Very good ajb. The kind of stuff I would like to do but am way too lazy. You could nitpick here and there, but it's subjective and overall hard to argue with.

I noticed that you had NFT for Cripps = Not For Trading?

Still, I think it's handy to work out what pick value each player has, even if NFT, so can I suggest the following:

Patrick Cripps - ALL OF THEM

 

[Iamcarlton]

I originally was of your opinion regarding big W and have posted that he should play no more than 9 games carefully selected to avoid being monstered by the big tall forwards. And I agree to some extent with your comments re Judd.

Having seen W play has changed my mind somewhat. He is a very natural footballer. He knows when to spoil, when to mark. He knows when to play on and when to go back and take his kick. He knows when to play loose and when to play tight. He appears to move, like Rhys Jones did, slowly as if he has all the time in the world. I think he will be very hard to monster. He is bigger than Ben Hart (who achieved AA selection in his first season playing as a third tall defender) and seems no less talented though expecting him to be AA is a huge call.

W is certainly entitled on form to play in the starting 22. That should be the end of the argument. If, as the season progresses, he appears to need a break or a spell in the magoos then I would agree with you that this should be done, sacrificing this year for our longer term interests. But this can be monitored as we go and need not be the subject of definitive ruling now. And of course he should be protected from being monstered. When at any stage he is being physically done over by his opponent he should be removed and not hung out to dry.

I'd be more worried if I was an opposition player of getting monstered by weitering and made to look silly by a kid that already looks like he's played 200 games . I think he'll be fine and will more than hold his own .

 

[therubbernub]

I get that argument but I think a KPD is different. Judd played an outside role with Kerr, Cousins etc around him. His natural speed an endurance was enough.

We're asking Weitering to play a key defensive post, which requires significant physical strength in a shite backline, in a shite team. There is a danger to him both physically and mentally if he gets thrown to the wolves in those circumstances.

ok fair point about Judd - i still think jw has enough smarts to play 22 games.

 

[DangerousD]

I think Daisy will have a ripper year and a few will be eating humble pie.. Well I hope so anyway

I hope so too, it's not his fault our club offered him a ridiculous deal. I hope he plays well

 

[DangerousD]

Wow, yesterday I had only 4 players who would get us a potential first round pick ex cripps who is NFT.

Now going through the list I only see 4 players who would get us a potential second rd pick (Graham, Boekhurst, Docherty & Everitt (2nd/3rd rd)).
The only 1 I would possibly consider trading is Everitt.

TBH I dont think we are going to see a lot of action next trade period. Draft and maybe 1 or 2 trades.

Im going out on a limb and saying it will be another big period with a big cull and a few surprises. Everitt possible second rounder, Casboult possible late second early third, Thomas possible third rounder. We already have the dogs third round selection meaning we would have a

1X 1st round
2X 2nd round
3X Third rounds

Could easily bundle a few of those together like we saw last draft ending up with two first rounders, 1 second and one third and thats just being conservative. I know they are all contracted but i wonder what would happen if a club in contention came hard for one of our players worth a first round.

 

[footyfan098]

Im going out on a limb and saying it will be another big period with a big cull and a few surprises. Everitt possible second rounder, Casboult possible late second early third, Thomas possible third rounder. We already have the dogs third round selection meaning we would have a

1X 1st round
2X 2nd round
3X Third rounds

Could easily bundle a few of those together like we saw last draft ending up with two first rounders, 1 second and one third and thats just being conservative. I know they are all contracted but i wonder what would happen if a club in contention came hard for one of our players worth a first round.

i agree, i can see us trading everitt and casboult (only 2 with some value). can't see anyone taking daisy. Potentially gibbs down the line also?

I see us finishing 2nd last this year behind bombers.

start with:
2, 20, 38, 48ish (dogs 3rd) and 56

agree everitts value is late second rounder?

so probably everitt and 56 for 28 and 62 (to GC) approx picks obviously

casboult for pick 35ish from freo?

Gives us:

2, 20, 28, 35, 48

surely one of the expansion clubs would trade a late 1st (15ish) and a 4th rounder (65 odd) for 28, 35, 48 for academy picks?

end up with:

2, 15, 20, 65

not a bad result

 

[DangerousD]

i agree, i can see us trading everitt and casboult (only 2 with some value). can't see anyone taking daisy. Potentially gibbs down the line also?

I see us finishing 2nd last this year behind bombers.

start with:
2, 20, 38, 48ish (dogs 3rd) and 56

agree everitts value is late second rounder?

so probably everitt and 56 for 28 and 62 (to GC) approx picks obviously

casboult for pick 35ish from freo?

Gives us:

2, 20, 28, 35, 48

surely one of the expansion clubs would trade a late 1st (15ish) and a 4th rounder (65 odd) for 28, 35, 48 for academy picks?

end up with:

2, 15, 20, 65

not a bad result

Just looking at GWS, there are murmours that Tomlinson will want out again and Marchbacks name keeps popping up, hopefully we nab one of these guys. They will be a huge player come trade time, with McCarthy on the move and possible Tomlinson and Marchback, if these guys leave and any others you would expect they would start to need senior players and not just picks.

On a side note, if Freo can lure Hooker as a FA and a discounted McCarthy they will be right back at the top.