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Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion
- Thread starter The Old Dark Navy's
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Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Well they were interested last off-season, but McCarthy is probably where they will focus their energies and trade capital.
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ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Played a handy final.
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Casboult doesn't want to move to WA it seems (think I heard his manager say that on trade radio last year)
Happy to do the proposed trade that I heard doing the rounds during the last week of trade week last year, Casboult straight swap for Sam Mayes
Wickzki
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Gibbs has played his best football as an attacking half forward / wingman but because of list deficiencies has always had to play the role of Mr Fix It.
Hopefully Bolts will allow him to play the free flowing and attacking game that he's capable of.
Has the ability to average 20 possessions and kick a couple of goals or more every week for a top side. Never been allowed to do it on a regular enough basis.
We have plenty of mids this year - some of them aren't great but enough to allow the club to play him in his best role.
Hopefully Bolts will allow him to play the free flowing and attacking game that he's capable of.
Has the ability to average 20 possessions and kick a couple of goals or more every week for a top side. Never been allowed to do it on a regular enough basis.
We have plenty of mids this year - some of them aren't great but enough to allow the club to play him in his best role.
Blue and Silver
Brownlow Medallist
So I am going to go out on a limb here and be bold.
I think we can win 7-8 games this year.
That's not an impressive number by any means, but it would leave us likely in the 13-15 range more than the 17-18 people have us.
Why?
1. It aint as bad as all that:
People have a tendency to extrapolate from the last game they saw, and we played a lot of terrible ones last year. But I don't think they reflect what the list is capable of fairly. Firstly, we lacked a well-drilled gameplan and a cohesive team ethic. Secondly, a lot of players dropped off, under-performed or generally weren't up to it. Thirdly, injuries.
2. The talent we lost is less important than people think:
People tend to get confused between talent and production in this discussion. When they say "Menzel was one of Carlton's most talented players" they leave off "although he didn't perform". This goes for Yarran and Henderson as well. Judd, Bell and Carrazzo are the real losses to the team if we are taking 2015 as our baseline. If Graham, Kerridge and Boekhorst can replace their output (replace Judd... let me cry myself to sleep) we will be ok.
3. Belief:
Malthouse was cooked as a senior coach in several ways. The most important was in how he got his players to buy in. Clearly he lost the players long before he lost his job and dropping performances reflect not only a poor gameplan and list management but also a lack of belief in the direction of the team. This is what Bolton has brought in spades
4. Natural attrition:
Every year we hear various experts predict that sides who did well last year should do again, that sides who did poorly will again, and that only 1-2 big moves will happen. Then the ball is bounced and that all goes out the window faster than ODN's reactions to a Kreuzer goal. Rest assured someone will fall apart in a big heap, the coach will get sacked and they slum it out at the bottom (my tip is Gold Coast).
5. The upside:
Cripps, Weitering, Graham, Kerridge, Boekhorst and Byrne are all talents yet to peak who could have a significantly bigger impact for us this year than last (Weitering and Kerridge would be hard-pressed to have less
).
All that optimism! I've drunk the kool aid good and proper haven't I?
But...
Why we won't win the premiership:
1. Huge list holes:
Both demographically and talent wise we lack evenness across the park. We didn't patch them in the 2015 offseason (how could we?) and it will take more than a few years to build the list.
2 New gameplan:
The benefit is that it is a gameplan, the negative is that it is unlikely we will be able to implement it fully at first. Gameplans fail in roughly three ways: Implementation, Exploitation, Failure. You fail to make the gameplan work, your opponent exploits some weakness it exposes or it was just horrible. Implementation is the problem we will most likely encounter.
3. Weak depth:
Like really weak. Liam Jones is on the list for crying out loud.
4. Goalkickers:
Nobody on the list is a proven goalkicker. At best there is Murphy, who just happens to be our premier midfielder (yes Patrick, I know, but a single season does not make a career). Goals which come from structure and game plan are great, but you still need those enigmatic wizards to convert the half-chances, the impossible goals, to beat out three opponents and all that other lovely stuff. Think about what Ballantyne and Walters bring to Freo, or Rioli to Hawthorn, Franklin to Sydney etc. EDIT: Ok Walks had a pretty good 2011. I wouldn't bet on a repeat though...
I think we can win 7-8 games this year.
That's not an impressive number by any means, but it would leave us likely in the 13-15 range more than the 17-18 people have us.
Why?
1. It aint as bad as all that:
People have a tendency to extrapolate from the last game they saw, and we played a lot of terrible ones last year. But I don't think they reflect what the list is capable of fairly. Firstly, we lacked a well-drilled gameplan and a cohesive team ethic. Secondly, a lot of players dropped off, under-performed or generally weren't up to it. Thirdly, injuries.
2. The talent we lost is less important than people think:
People tend to get confused between talent and production in this discussion. When they say "Menzel was one of Carlton's most talented players" they leave off "although he didn't perform". This goes for Yarran and Henderson as well. Judd, Bell and Carrazzo are the real losses to the team if we are taking 2015 as our baseline. If Graham, Kerridge and Boekhorst can replace their output (replace Judd... let me cry myself to sleep) we will be ok.
3. Belief:
Malthouse was cooked as a senior coach in several ways. The most important was in how he got his players to buy in. Clearly he lost the players long before he lost his job and dropping performances reflect not only a poor gameplan and list management but also a lack of belief in the direction of the team. This is what Bolton has brought in spades
4. Natural attrition:
Every year we hear various experts predict that sides who did well last year should do again, that sides who did poorly will again, and that only 1-2 big moves will happen. Then the ball is bounced and that all goes out the window faster than ODN's reactions to a Kreuzer goal. Rest assured someone will fall apart in a big heap, the coach will get sacked and they slum it out at the bottom (my tip is Gold Coast).
5. The upside:
Cripps, Weitering, Graham, Kerridge, Boekhorst and Byrne are all talents yet to peak who could have a significantly bigger impact for us this year than last (Weitering and Kerridge would be hard-pressed to have less
).All that optimism! I've drunk the kool aid good and proper haven't I?
But...
Why we won't win the premiership:
1. Huge list holes:
Both demographically and talent wise we lack evenness across the park. We didn't patch them in the 2015 offseason (how could we?) and it will take more than a few years to build the list.
2 New gameplan:
The benefit is that it is a gameplan, the negative is that it is unlikely we will be able to implement it fully at first. Gameplans fail in roughly three ways: Implementation, Exploitation, Failure. You fail to make the gameplan work, your opponent exploits some weakness it exposes or it was just horrible. Implementation is the problem we will most likely encounter.
3. Weak depth:
Like really weak. Liam Jones is on the list for crying out loud.
4. Goalkickers:
Nobody on the list is a proven goalkicker. At best there is Murphy, who just happens to be our premier midfielder (yes Patrick, I know, but a single season does not make a career). Goals which come from structure and game plan are great, but you still need those enigmatic wizards to convert the half-chances, the impossible goals, to beat out three opponents and all that other lovely stuff. Think about what Ballantyne and Walters bring to Freo, or Rioli to Hawthorn, Franklin to Sydney etc. EDIT: Ok Walks had a pretty good 2011. I wouldn't bet on a repeat though...
Last edited:
Looking through some old bookmarks I found this...interesting, especially regarding McKay
Cuningham didn't even make the list lol
http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/09/17/the-top-60-draft-prospects-of-2015/
Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Cuningham didn't even make the list lol
http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/09/17/the-top-60-draft-prospects-of-2015/
Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Looking through some old bookmarks I found this...interesting, especially regarding McKay
Cuningham didn't even make the list lol
http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/09/17/the-top-60-draft-prospects-of-2015/
Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Neither did Doedee or Fioroni.........and Lovell was #57. All three were selected before Cuningham.
HBF
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Bradley was never going to get drafted last year. But it will be interesting to see how he goes this year as a 19 year old at the Knights.
I feel that our spread of young leaders will serve us very well in the future.
I don't recall a time when we had so many 22 year olds or younger that have had genuine leadership qualities:
Docherty, Kerridge, Weitering, Cripps, Plowman and Graham are a terrific starting point.
Jaksch should be in this group but he has a little work to do and then we have C.Curnow, Silvagni and maybe McKay coming through.
There is another young player that may well surprise us all in the leadership stakes..................Ciaran Byrne.
I don't recall a time when we had so many 22 year olds or younger that have had genuine leadership qualities:
Docherty, Kerridge, Weitering, Cripps, Plowman and Graham are a terrific starting point.
Jaksch should be in this group but he has a little work to do and then we have C.Curnow, Silvagni and maybe McKay coming through.
There is another young player that may well surprise us all in the leadership stakes..................Ciaran Byrne.
HBF
Flying Scotsman
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Good to see he got his old mans tank.
That's so heartening. I hope we can hear "Bradley to Silvagni" in the future.
Don't need a Rice. When SOSOS is a veteran, Oscar Judd can rejuvenate the team.
Don't need a Rice. When SOSOS is a veteran, Oscar Judd can rejuvenate the team.
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Oscar supports WCE fml
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Looking at our list we really need our young guys to come on quickly before Kreuzer, Murphy, Gibbs and Tuohy retire. We will loose Jamison, Rowe, Walker, Thomas and Simpson. Here is my view of our young guys.
The 15 new players
Silvagni- If leave out who his family is then it doesn't look good, a late pick, a undersized forward but did look OK in his NAB game won't see a lot of AFL footy in 2016 could develop into a solid 3rd tall like a Breust or a Darling.
McKay- he's got strong hands and good pace but looks more like a Tippett type than a buddy.
Kerridge- looked like an average player a the crows but after his pre season form he looks like a great partner for Cripps in the middle and looks like he could be a goal kicker
Lamb- it make or break! Looked like a young superstar at the swans but looked average at GWS.
Sumner- massive talent, great skills and speed, if he can get his body right he will be a star. I'm looking forward to watching him running down the wing and kicking goals.
Plowman- another on that needs to get his body right. Could be a key defender but would be better as a loose man in defence with his decision making, pace and skills will be a massive weapon
Weitering- superstar and leader (just like Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer was at the same age)
Cuningham- I was in sure about him when we drafted him, then heard great reports over the pre season and thought I was wrong then watching him play in the NAB he looks lost. I was really hoping for Collins, Partington or Mathieson
Curnow- if he has the same work ethic as his brother he will be Fyfe type of midfielder ans a superstar.
Phillips- will never be a superstar but is strong, hard at it and give 100%. He will be our No. 1 ruck at some stage and that will free Kreuzer up to play forward, wing or midfielder.
Gorringe- What is this guy? A forward? A ruckman? A defender? A really tall midfielder?
Gallucci- will be handy. Need him in our starting 22 ASAP. Chases, tackles and kicks goals
Wright- adds leadership and a older body but is only a stop gap
Glass- McCasker- needs time to develop. Has all the skills and talent to be an A grade defender
Korcheck- At 23yo time is not on his side. But he is a competitive beast.
The other young guys-
Buckley- love this guy so hoping he plays 22 games this year.
Cripps- superstar
Boekhorst- ready for a break out year.
Docherty- the best trade since Judd. Will be a captain one day.
Viojo-rainbow- I'm disappointed we didn't get to see him in the NAB. Needs to play afl footy this year, had good number at vfl level
Jaksch- needs to be settled into one position. With Plowman and Weitering added to our list IMO it should be forward would like to see him play 15-20 games at FF.
Tutt- In an interview Judd said he will be a star and I'm not going to argue with the great man
Whiley- make or break year but signs looked good in the NAB
Smith- work rate is a question but has all the talent and skills to make it
Foster- developing tall needs time but will be 50/50 to make it
Dick- way down the peaking order but works hard
Graham- 2016 looks to be his year
Byrne- could be the next big Irish star has skills and pace
For me our biggest needs is a superstar tall forward, another gun mid or 2 and a classy small forward.
The 15 new players
Silvagni- If leave out who his family is then it doesn't look good, a late pick, a undersized forward but did look OK in his NAB game won't see a lot of AFL footy in 2016 could develop into a solid 3rd tall like a Breust or a Darling.
McKay- he's got strong hands and good pace but looks more like a Tippett type than a buddy.
Kerridge- looked like an average player a the crows but after his pre season form he looks like a great partner for Cripps in the middle and looks like he could be a goal kicker
Lamb- it make or break! Looked like a young superstar at the swans but looked average at GWS.
Sumner- massive talent, great skills and speed, if he can get his body right he will be a star. I'm looking forward to watching him running down the wing and kicking goals.
Plowman- another on that needs to get his body right. Could be a key defender but would be better as a loose man in defence with his decision making, pace and skills will be a massive weapon
Weitering- superstar and leader (just like Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer was at the same age)
Cuningham- I was in sure about him when we drafted him, then heard great reports over the pre season and thought I was wrong then watching him play in the NAB he looks lost. I was really hoping for Collins, Partington or Mathieson
Curnow- if he has the same work ethic as his brother he will be Fyfe type of midfielder ans a superstar.
Phillips- will never be a superstar but is strong, hard at it and give 100%. He will be our No. 1 ruck at some stage and that will free Kreuzer up to play forward, wing or midfielder.
Gorringe- What is this guy? A forward? A ruckman? A defender? A really tall midfielder?
Gallucci- will be handy. Need him in our starting 22 ASAP. Chases, tackles and kicks goals
Wright- adds leadership and a older body but is only a stop gap
Glass- McCasker- needs time to develop. Has all the skills and talent to be an A grade defender
Korcheck- At 23yo time is not on his side. But he is a competitive beast.
The other young guys-
Buckley- love this guy so hoping he plays 22 games this year.
Cripps- superstar
Boekhorst- ready for a break out year.
Docherty- the best trade since Judd. Will be a captain one day.
Viojo-rainbow- I'm disappointed we didn't get to see him in the NAB. Needs to play afl footy this year, had good number at vfl level
Jaksch- needs to be settled into one position. With Plowman and Weitering added to our list IMO it should be forward would like to see him play 15-20 games at FF.
Tutt- In an interview Judd said he will be a star and I'm not going to argue with the great man
Whiley- make or break year but signs looked good in the NAB
Smith- work rate is a question but has all the talent and skills to make it
Foster- developing tall needs time but will be 50/50 to make it
Dick- way down the peaking order but works hard
Graham- 2016 looks to be his year
Byrne- could be the next big Irish star has skills and pace
For me our biggest needs is a superstar tall forward, another gun mid or 2 and a classy small forward.
thylacine60
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Got the Rice nomination wrong.Looking through some old bookmarks I found this...interesting, especially regarding McKay
Cuningham didn't even make the list lol
http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/09/17/the-top-60-draft-prospects-of-2015/
Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Apparently therainbowwarrior ran some decent km' s in the box hill game , and from some of the forum reports played quite well also.
thylacine60
Post-Human
- Banned
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any more, C73?
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