i would go as far to say, as long as you score one point more than you concede in every game of the season then you will win the GFThis is one of those things you can't really start tracking until round 16 ish. By then everyone has played everyone and the averages actually mean something.
Mind you, if you can find a way to score 120 points every week, does it matter of you concede 100? I'd say no.