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Prediction Lachlan Keeffe

How many games will Keeffe play next year?

  • 0

    Votes: 16 19.0%

  • 1-5

    Votes: 28 33.3%

  • 6-10

    Votes: 18 21.4%

  • 10-15

    Votes: 14 16.7%

  • 15+

    Votes: 7 8.3%

  • All games

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • Total voters
    84

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Mateyman said:
Why on earth would you cheat with a drug which is easily picked up in a drug test, when you could find others that won't be picked up for years? It's the same reason it doesn't make sense for Maria Sharapova to deliberately cheat with Meldonium, or for Ahmed Saad to deliberately have his energy drink. I would say the vast majority of drug takers in sport wouldn't be picked up until years later when scientists have worked out ways to test for the drugs.
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drug tests are ineffective, its hard to get caught, an Olympic athlete gets tested once a month on average, and only have a 3% chance of getting caught, an afl player gets tested on average once a year. These substances have very small half lifes the window is small. Drug tests are iq tests.
 
Chameleon75 said:
drug tests are ineffective, its hard to get caught, an Olympic athlete gets tested once a month on average, and only have a 3% chance of getting caught, an afl player gets tested on average once a year. These substances have very small half lifes the window is small. Drug tests are iq tests.
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Where are you getting those numbers from?
 

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Chameleon75 said:
Why didn't they plea no significant fault, could have got a reduced ban
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Possbily because it wouldnt have given them a reduced ban, a positive test is a positive test and mixing stuff with cocaine is hardly an argument that will draw sympathy from the regulators. Plus no doubt the club didnt want a drawn out Essendon like saga, likely that part of the deal for them to be re rookied was that they would cop the penalty on the chin
 
Chameleon75 said:
Why didn't they plea no significant fault, could have got a reduced ban
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Have the Clen levels in their body ever been divulged by ASADA/WADA? Maybe that is the answer to your question.
 
CFC2010 said:
Have the Clen levels in their body ever been divulged by ASADA/WADA? Maybe that is the answer to your question.
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Do levels normally get divulged?

What in your expert opinion would be a level consistent with clen being cut into one line of coke? What would a level above that be that would indicate a something more deliberate that couldnt possibly be explained away? What would these levels tell you? I read elsewhere on this thread its out of the system in 14 days anyway....wouldnt a high level just tell you that the injestion was more recent (eg last 24 hours) rather than 2 weeks ago?

Tell me more, I'd love to learn more from you. Pie chart, bar graph, PhD paper, anything will do. I want to learn from you. What degree do you have in this expert field?
 
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MagpieBrute said:
Hey Loki, you added nothing of substance pardon the pun it looks like you just did a google search and cut and pasted the names of certain drugs. All you told me is that Clen is easy to get your hands on, adds nothing to the debate. Sorry unless there's a chemical scientist who can explain what those drugs do, you, me and everyone else are still ignorant to what is out there.
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??? Hey Loki...No reply, I assume you agree with me that you are quite ignorant about Drugs in sport despite having Keeffe hung drawn and quartered?
 
Chameleon75 said:
sorry got my numbers mixed up was going by memory.

http://theconversation.com/exposing-dopers-in-sport-is-it-really-worth-the-cost-16464

a test frequency 1 every 3mths provides a probability of detection of 2.9%.

The afl publish their figures, from memory they do around 1000 tests a year for peds
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If you're systematically using it to gain an advantage that number would go up substantially though I would imagine. I wouldn't imagine you get much benefit out of using it once in a blue moon in the off season
 

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Mateyman said:
If you're systematically using it to gain an advantage that number would go up substantially though I would imagine. I wouldn't imagine you get much benefit out of using it once in a blue moon in the off season
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read the article it provides the basis, it is based on an athlete using every week
 
Chameleon75 said:
read the article it provides the basis, it is based on an athlete using every week
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I thought people said Clen stayed in the system for 10 days to 2 weeks though? Not the 48 hours it uses as an average drug in the article? That's also 2.9% per test, so adds up to more than 12% over a year, or nearly 50% chance after 4 years. Also that article doesn't say how often they test Aussie rules athletes
 
Mateyman said:
I thought people said Clen stayed in the system for 10 days to 2 weeks though? Not the 48 hours it uses as an average drug in the article? That's also 2.9% per test, so adds up to more than 12% over a year, or nearly 50% chance after 4 years. Also that article doesn't say how often they test Aussie rules athletes
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Thats not how probilities work, you dont add them each test is independent of the other, they are discrete events.

the afl publish their testing frequencies in their annual report, when I get the chance I'll dig it up for you, from memory its a bit over 1000 tests for the year, in other terms roughly 1 per player per year, when you take into account the random selection and the target testing, not every player gets tested in a year.
 
Mobile 204cm defenders don't grow on trees and 200cm+ forwards are becoming the norm. He is probably the only player on the list that can negate the new goal square gorillas and still pick up more possessions than Brown or Frost.
 
http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/115666/Lachlan-KEEFFE

The player ratings for Keeffe are interesting.

Towards the end of season 2014 his form seemed to taper off but for most of that year he was a very solid tall defender for us.

The worry is what will missing 2 years do to his confidence, ability and form.

The one thing we do know is we need him as a defender, not a forward. Can't see him getting a game ahead of Cox, Moore or White (and maybe Cloke) next season up forward, let alone anyone we may recruit.

I keep going back to Marty Clarke though, who missed 2 seasons (went home to Ireland) then came back and was a shadow of his former self. I hope the same doesn't happen to Keeffe (and a lesser extent Thomas who I have very low expectations of) but fear it will.

But let's be honest here, Keeffe at his absolute best was about average, we aren't waiting for an elite or potentially elite AFL footballer to return next year, and shouldn't expect one.
 

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Timmy from Thomastown said:
Not until you answer any of those very valid and on-topic questions
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The topic is how many games will Keeffe play.........so I voted zero hoping he would play 22 in the QAFL.

The rest of your facetious questions are irrelevant to the topic and a moot point because the superstar Keeffe will be playing for Collingwood next year.
 
mattys123 said:
http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/115666/Lachlan-KEEFFE

The player ratings for Keeffe are interesting.

Towards the end of season 2014 his form seemed to taper off but for most of that year he was a very solid tall defender for us.
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Gosh does nobody else recall how he completely and utterly lost the plot in more than a few games in 2014 - to the point where he was getting emotional out on the field (and I don't mean in a good way either - more like throwing his arms up in the air, having a sook and basically not trying or even paying attention)?

He's basically a back line version of Cloke, but without anything really in the way of runs on the board to show that there might still be something worth salvaging in there somewhere. He was also absolutely useless up forward and in the ruck (looked pretty much lost in both positions) if memory serves me correctly.

The TL;DR version is that there were some pretty obvious reasons why he was already on the outer in terms of being in our best 22 and two years away from the system wont exactly help sort his issues out I don't think.
 
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partypie said:
Gosh does nobody else recall how he completely and utterly lost the plot in more than a few games in 2014 - to the point where he was getting emotional out on the field (and I don't mean in a good way either - more like throwing his arms up in the air, having a sook and basically not trying or even paying attention)?

He's basically a back line version of Cloke, but without anything really in the way of runs on the board to show that there might still be something worth salvaging in there somewhere. He was also absolutely useless up forward and in the ruck (looked pretty much lost in both positions) if memory serves me correctly.

The TL;DR version is that there were some pretty obvious reasons why he was already on the outer in terms of being is our best 22 and two years away from the system wont exactly help sort his issues out I don't think.
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Yeah I was being nice there. I don't hold high hopes for him at all to regain a permenant position in the side.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 
MagpieBrute said:
??? Hey Loki...No reply, I assume you agree with me that you are quite ignorant about Drugs in sport despite having Keeffe hung drawn and quartered?
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What is there to reply to? You made more of a statement then a question...You asked for a chemist to give you a chemical break down, possible sides I assume, half life cycle info? And tried to have a "google" dig at me lmfao, diversion tactics 101.

FWIW the PEDS i linked in Capitals all have to do with endurance increasing and fat burning similar to clen some only do one thing others do both. SOme aren't even banned yeet and are on the watched list.

I've said my piece previously why rehash it again...but here you missed this line before:

You can think he was an unlucky Druggo just innocently doing lines, I will think he was an unlucky PED user.


Chameleon75 said:
sorry got my numbers mixed up was going by memory.

http://theconversation.com/exposing-dopers-in-sport-is-it-really-worth-the-cost-16464

a test frequency 1 every 3mths provides a probability of detection of 2.9%.

The afl publish their figures, from memory they do around 1000 tests a year for peds
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Remember that interview regarding the harassment of Dane Swan (6am door knock for test, 1 month apart) and his drug tests he gets target tested and will be tested multiple times a year in the same thing it said other players might get tested the solitary 1 time.

So you have a Clen having a 10 day window to be caught in and up till this point have only been tested once a year.

Mateyman said:
I thought people said Clen stayed in the system for 10 days to 2 weeks though? Not the 48 hours it uses as an average drug in the article? That's also 2.9% per test, so adds up to more than 12% over a year, or nearly 50% chance after 4 years. Also that article doesn't say how often they test Aussie rules athletes
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Clen you would cycle 2 weeks on 2 weeks off for maximum benefit due to half lifes and would typically do it over 12 week period.
 
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