Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[DangerousD]

Can anyone remember their thoughts on Membrey when he was rumored to be joining the Blues?

Who are we getting for a third round pick this year that will have the same impact as him or Bruce next year?

Towers, Ellis-Yolman, Tomlinson, Stewart, Ahern, B.Jack, someone else.

 

[Malifice]

If we went all out at the draft, trading on Gibbs and Tuohy for first rounders, Everitt and Casboult for 2nd or 3rd rounders and then bundling all our picks, how many could we get inside the top 20?

5?

Technically a lot.

Best case scenario and someone actually is prepared to trade a third rounder for both Everitt and Casboult. We can then bundle those third rounders with Touhy and Gibbs for 15, 16 and 33 (Sydney and Adelaide).

It breaks down to Gibbs and a third rounder (Casboult) for 15 and 33, and Touhy and a late third rounder (Everitt) for 16.

We now have 4, 15, 16, 22, 33, 40 and 49.

16, 40 and 49 are worth just under 1800 points. We can bundle them together for pick 7 (Pies, GWS) valued at 1644 points.

Leaving us with picks 4, 7, 14, 15, 22.

If that were to happen, I'd argue to trade out 22 and our second rounder next year for the GWS players (Steele and Tomlinson at least).

 

[Jimmae]

The Saints looked pretty good today, they made some tough calls letting go Goddard,

First round compensation @ 27, recognised as a slow player

Dal Santo,

Second round compensation @ 28, broke even

Mckevoy,

They got Savage and pick 18!

Stanley.

Second round pick - massive overs trade! That's like us giving up pick 28 last year for Gorringe.

Make no mistake, the Saints have had a massive free kick through free agency and other clubs' desperation, and yet they're still relying on a 33-year old for their forward line structure.

 

[DangerousD]

If we went all out at the draft, trading on Gibbs and Tuohy for first rounders, Everitt and Casboult for 2nd or 3rd rounders and then bundling all our picks, how many could we get inside the top 20?

Pick 22 and 40 = 1274 points (Pick 14 GWS)

Pick 4, 10 (Gibbs-Port), 14 (GWS), 18 (Tuohy-Swans)

Trade Everitt to GC for pick 41
Trade Cas to Lions pick 38

Trade 2017 second round, 38 and 41 for Steele, Marchbank, Tomlinson

go to the draft with 4, 10, 14, 18, 50, 76 (Byrne)

 

[Dramoth]

Indeed and Styxx is conveniently forgetting that it can also help with the age profile of our list going forward. When we are this far off the pace, proponents of conservative list management s**t me no end...

So lets keep turning over 10-15 players every season in the hope that eventually we will start getting some good ones... and in 3 years time, it's going to be their turn in the gun to be turned over...

Being too aggressive in our list management will see us end up like Melbourne... conversely, being too conservative will see us end up like we were during the Ratten period.

 

[DangerousD]

First round compensation @ 27, recognised as a slow player

Second round compensation @ 28, broke even

They got Savage and pick 18!

Second round pick - massive overs trade! That's like us giving up pick 28 last year for Gorringe.

Make no mistake, the Saints have had a massive free kick through free agency and other clubs' desperation, and yet they're still relying on a 33-year old for their forward line structure.

Mcartin, Bruce, Membrey looks like a good forward line to me.

 

[Soapy V]

Make no mistake, the Saints have had a massive free kick through free agency and other clubs' desperation, and yet they're still relying on a 33-year old for their forward line structure.

i think they have done very well and been smart with their trading and recruitment. they have made the hard decisions to try and advance their list. if you dont you go nowhere. thats the system. as for riewoldt, with mcmartin bruce & membrey in the side he has been playing on a wing. good development in my opinion

 

[Malifice]

So lets keep turning over 10-15 players every season in the hope that eventually we will start getting some good ones... and in 3 years time, it's going to be their turn in the gun to be turned over...

Being too aggressive in our list management will see us end up like Melbourne... conversely, being too conservative will see us end up like we were during the Ratten period.

I dont see trading out 2-4 experienced players to be going full Melbourne.

Even assuming Gibbs, Touhy, Caboult and Everitt get traded out, were left with Murphy, Kruezer, Thomas, Curnow in the middle (and Cripps is doing OK in the side at present without Gibbs). The backline can live without Touhy (Rowe, Doch, Weitering, Plowman, Simpson for one more year, and Byrne to come back after) and Cas isnt exactly doing anything up forward at the moment.

What are we losing trading them out exactly?

In exchange we would get in 2 more 1st round draft picks.

 

[DangerousD]

see us end up like Melbourne

The Melbourne now with a great list pushing for finals, or the bad Melbourne of 5 years ago?

 

[Soapy V]

So lets keep turning over 10-15 players every season in the hope that eventually we will start getting some good ones... and in 3 years time, it's going to be their turn in the gun to be turned over...

Being too aggressive in our list management will see us end up like Melbourne... conversely, being too conservative will see us end up like we were during the Ratten period.

id love to have their list. lots of young talent all over the ground and now just starting to pay off

 

[Dramoth]

I got pooh poohed for suggesting we try trade for Tom McDonald a few days ago, but we could have used him today against Membrey.
#JustSaying

Could have used Jamison against him today... but with him seemingly having hung up his boots already... we have no one else.

 

[thylacine60]

people crapping on "we don't wanna do a melbourne" why not?

 

[Azul]

Can anyone remember their thoughts on Membrey when he was rumored to be joining the Blues?

Who are we getting for a third round pick this year that will have the same impact as him or Bruce next year?

I'm more inclined just to develop our own, particularly if Tomlinson comes along for the ride.

Hit the draft and an 19yo 'Membrey' type. e.g. Brown, Blair (best mates with Charlie Curnow) and Tiziani are dominating the TAC goalkicking after being overlooked last November.

 

[Dramoth]

The Melbourne now with a great list pushing for finals, or the bad Melbourne of 5 years ago?

The one where they traded out most of their experienced players or forced them into retirement. The Melbourne from 5 years ago.

We need to be striking a good balance with our list management.

 

[KohPhi]

First round compensation @ 27, recognised as a slow player

Second round compensation @ 28, broke even

They got Savage and pick 18!

Second round pick - massive overs trade! That's like us giving up pick 28 last year for Gorringe.

Make no mistake, the Saints have had a massive free kick through free agency and other clubs' desperation, and yet they're still relying on a 33-year old for their forward line structure.

Dont worry about the 33 year old holding their forward line together. It's their 20-24 year old mids I'd be salivating at.
If we draft wisely, we will be in the same boat in 2-3 seasons..

 

[Soapy V]

The one where they traded out most of their experienced players or forced them into retirement. The Melbourne from 5 years ago.

same thing. seems to be working so far. you cant fight the system. short term pain for long term gain. we need to go to the draft and to do that properly we need to make the hard decisions.

 

[Soapy V]

people crapping on "we don't wanna do a melbourne" why not?

be happy to do a melbourne or a st kilda or a bulldogs or maybe a gws?

 

[Navara79]

people crapping on "we don't wanna do a melbourne" why not?

People just don't want to go full rebuild. Which is exactly what we need to do. If that means trading a Gibbs or a Touhy, so what? We won't be winning a premiership in the next 5 years. We either do it properly or stay how we have been got the past 16 years. Mediocre

 

[TeeJay Blue]

be happy to do a melbourne or a st kilda or a bulldogs or maybe a gws?

Any ideas on how we do a GWS? Bow down to Gillo? Give him a pedicure? Offer him access to our facilities?

All this for concessions? (Love to do a bulldogs though, but it may never happen)

 

[Soapy V]

People just don't want to go full rebuild. Which is exactly what we need to do. We either do it properly or stay how we have been got the past 16 years. Mediocre

and thats what we are doing. we are one year into it. i have no doubt that sos and bolton will make some big changes again at the end of the year and as such nothing is off the table. trigg sos & bolton have all said it at various stages but the list needs major changes and they will be doing it mostly through the draft

 

[RoyalParade]

I'm more inclined just to develop our own, particularly if Tomlinson comes along for the ride.

Hit the draft and an 19yo 'Membrey' type. e.g. Brown, Blair (best mates with Charlie Curnow) and Tiziani are dominating the TAC goalkicking after being overlooked last November.

Kerr?

 

[DaVillaBlues]

I'd prefer to go down the Doggies path of rebuild after Eade got sacked myself than Melbourne's long road, they got their mix pretty much spot on, expect maybe Boyd.

 

[Malifice]

People just don't want to go full rebuild. Which is exactly what we need to do. We either do it properly or stay how we have been got the past 16 years. Mediocre

Hallelujah brother.

When Bolton in his press conference today said 'we have holes all over the ground and we lack depth' that gives me great confidence that those at the club finally realise this as well.

You cant screw up that many drafts and fix it in one hit. Even if we nailed all those picks last year (no guarantee) we have a ton more holes to fill just to get up to par. By my count we need at least half a dozen players of AFL quality - A graders to get to par, and undo the misrule of the past decade.

And that just gets us to par. Teams teams that are par, dont win flags.

In other words, we not only need to get in those half a dozen, we need a half dozen more. Its a monumental task, and if people rush it we're doomed before we begin. We have to trade out agressively, with a look to the list that we'll be putting on the park intending to have sustained success fro 2020 onwards.

 

[Soapy V]

I'd prefer to go down the Doggies path of rebuild after Eade got sacked myself than Melbourne's long road, they got their mix pretty much spot on, expect maybe Boyd.

there's no difference. same process just melbourne made some mistakes in selections early and had a bad culture/coaching set up. as soon as they got it right things changed.

whats a positive for us is we have the facilities, culture and a great coaching set up. up to sos to do the right trades and get the picks right

 

[Azul]

Kerr?

Here is the goalkicking table. According to that (only 4 games?), Kerr is well down the list.