Strategy Trade and List Management thread 2.(...the waiting for the hammer to fall edition)

[stringertheking]

No way we get pick 7 for Hamling and Adams. No way.

Yes we will there not going to come cheep Adams is a required player as is hamling .

 

[Northernsoul74]

I agree - and it wouldn't surprise me if we traded both Hamling and Adams.

Hamling, Adams and pick 18 surely gets us Freo's pick 7?

Pick 7 and a later pick, or someone like Honeychurch, or both, potentially shakes free a player of the calibre of Alex Rance?

The above example is not thought through completely, and the relative values of players and picks are off the top of my head after 30 seconds contemplation...but I'd bet my left one that we are working on something like that.

Not sure pick 7 is worth that much to us. Who would we likely take at 7 this year seeing as we need a developing tall defender and forward? The top 10-15 all look like midfielders that we are well covered for. Logue? He's fromWA so the obvious concerns. English or Marshall? Good chance they will slide.
The knock on of this Adams stuff is it likely screws up our draft plans as fairly sure we would have gone for a forward to develop. We may now need to go for any key defender out of desperation.

 

[Del165892]

No way we get pick 7 for Hamling and Adams. No way.

They are great value for pick 7. Like honestly what are you expecting your pick 7 to get you, that is better than 2 ready-made AFL-quality KPDs? Id rather have Adams and Hamling than pick 7. Weitering went at pick 1 last year and Id take Adams over him.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Who is this Lemming? Can he play KPD?

Hamling, lemming... Might as well trade for the pied piper of Hamelin!

 

[DexterTan]

This is one of your best melts ever! I'm actually enjoying it.

You're saying we've been poor this trade period though. At least give us time to get a deal done for Adams, or at least wait for Hamling to actually make a decision on his future before you brand us favourites for the wooden spoon in 2017. Your negativity astounds me.

Imagine how he reacts to things in his everyday life?!!

 

[Dav1d]

Imagine how he reacts to things in his everyday life?!!

 

[CaptainMurphy]

The dream result from here would be to trade Adams for value and keep Hamling (hopefully he sees himself getting more games with Adams gone). Even if they both go though our back line is very workable. Just need Moz to not fall off a cliff and/or Cordy/Collins to step up. Roberts played most of last year and was good I thought. Sucks losing Adams but we can cover him and we might get something good for him. If he nets us Taranto for example I'll be super happy.

 

[Substance]

I agree - and it wouldn't surprise me if we traded both Hamling and Adams.

Hamling, Adams and pick 18 surely gets us Freo's pick 7?

Can people stop posting this? You're scaring me. Hammer, Adams and 18 are worth pick 2. Pick 7 would be a complete ripoff.

 

[Mofra]

Not sure pick 7 is worth that much to us. Who would we likely take at 7 this year seeing as we need a developing tall defender and forward?

Moot point - we take the best available first our first pick, and we desperately need a burst midfielder anyway.
Tim Taranto come on down.

 

[Mutt]

Hamling is worth a pick say, between 25 and 35. Adams is worth at the very best, say, an end of first round pick. No way do those relative values equal pick 7 in the real world.

Adams would have to valued at about pick 10 for Hamling to get us a three pick upgrade at the pointy end of the draft. I can't see Freo stumping up that equivalent value when they know that Adams will be in WA in a year anyway.

 

[Mofra]

Hamling is worth a pick say, between 25 and 35. Adams is worth at the very best, say, an end of first round pick. No way do those relative values equal pick 7 in the real world.

Pick 7 - 1644 points
Pick 18 (end of first round) - 985
The difference is 659 points, which is between picks 28 and 29. It's not that far off however I can't see Freo budging on that at all.

Adams and pick 18 for pick 7 would value Adams at roughly pick 29 which in normal circumstances is fair value, not sure Freo would see it that way.

 

[JTCWBFC]

If Jack is gettable and we aren't chasing hard I'll be disappointed.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Most likely off to Richmond but we're still interested in Nankervis.

 

[Dav1d]

Hamling is worth a pick say, between 25 and 35. Adams is worth at the very best, say, an end of first round pick. No way do those relative values equal pick 7 in the real world.

Adams would have to valued at about pick 10 for Hamling to get us a three pick upgrade at the pointy end of the draft. I can't see Freo stumping up that equivalent value when they know that Adams will be in WA in a year anyway.

How about Hamling/Adams & 18 our later picks for 7 & upgrading all of our picks with Fremantle?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Hamling is worth a pick say, between 25 and 35. Adams is worth at the very best, say, an end of first round pick. No way do those relative values equal pick 7 in the real world.

Adams would have to valued at about pick 10 for Hamling to get us a three pick upgrade at the pointy end of the draft. I can't see Freo stumping up that equivalent value when they know that Adams will be in WA in a year anyway.

Agree.

Should we lose both, I think our best opportunity is to get Sydney involved. Harley suggested they want to move up the draft order with 14 + 17. Something like this:

Freo get: pick 14, Adams, Hamling
Freo lose: pick 7, pick 35

Sydney get: pick 7
Sydney lose: pick 14, pick 17

Dogs get: pick 17, pick 35
Dogs lose: Adams, Hamling

Just a very rough framework, but the basis of a workable deal in my opinion.

 

[ringa5]

To south africa?

Dont laugh he has all the speed and evasive skills to be a great springbok winger.Make Folau look slow.

 

[Dav1d]

If Jack is gettable and we aren't chasing hard I'll be disappointed.

Do not listen to anything this Twitter account has to say, just stating rumors as if they're facts.

 

[Mutt]

Pick 7 - 1644 points
Pick 18 (end of first round) - 985
The difference is 659 points, which is between picks 28 and 29. It's not that far off however I can't see Freo budging on that at all.

Adams and pick 18 for pick 7 would value Adams at roughly pick 29 which in normal circumstances is fair value, not sure Freo would see it that way.

Freo don't need points. The relative values assigned via the points system vastly overvalues picks 20+.

 

[BRWB]

Hamling is worth a pick say, between 25 and 35. Adams is worth at the very best, say, an end of first round pick. No way do those relative values equal pick 7 in the real world.

Adams would have to valued at about pick 10 for Hamling to get us a three pick upgrade at the pointy end of the draft. I can't see Freo stumping up that equivalent value when they know that Adams will be in WA in a year anyway.

Another perspective might be - what were Freo going to draft with P7. Iirc they were looking at a couple of talls. Perhaps if they got a ready made tall they may be ready to shift 7.

I'd consider Adams and 18 for P7 (or next years first rd) and P35/43. Pretty close to fair value IMO. If anything it's unders.

Gun KPs are rare. Adams has already shown when fit he is a gun. Clubs part with top 10 picks for gun contracted KPs.

Look at Carlton mulling over P5 for an out of contract, injury prone, proven nothing Marchbank (and loose change).

 

[X_box_X]

MD, please.

 

[Mattdougie]

I've heard the whisper going around and if true it's a monumental move if we can make it happen but I really can't see anyway we can.

 

[MJ_Dogs]

Do not listen to anything this Twitter account has to say, just stating rumors as if they're facts.

Yep absolute shite. They said Campbell was likely to leave then a couple days later he re-signed.

And in any case, why the hell would Jack leave Richmond to go to North. He wouldn't leave for money, only to play for a flag

 

[Mofra]

I've heard the whisper going around and if true it's a monumental move if we can make it happen but I really can't see anyway we can.

Barrett posted similar, not sure if that makes it more likely or less likely.

 

[Mofra]

http://www.watoday.com.au/afl/west-...in-heading-to-west-coast-20161014-gs2gd7.html

Goldy rumours from weeks ago may have been on the money.

 

[Pugz89]

If Jack is gettable and we aren't chasing hard I'll be disappointed.

He posted a four way trade at the start of trade period and it included this year. It's not correct.