2017 Ladder Predictions

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not relevant at all, given Adelaide also played us twice.

For Adelaide to finish above us, they simply needed to beat us once.

Hardly irrelevant when the draw gifted Geelong 16pts, while other clubs up the top end only got 1 or 2 games against the two worst sides in the comp.

 

[carnthedons]

Hardly irrelevant when the draw gifted Geelong 16pts, while other clubs up the top end only got 1 or 2 games against the two worst sides in the comp.

Impossible to only get 1 game against those 2 teams. All teams outside of Ess & Bris must have 2-4 games against them

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Hardly irrelevant when the draw gifted Geelong 16pts, while other clubs up the top end only got 1 or 2 games against the two worst sides in the comp.

Completely irrelevant to Geelong's final finishing position in relation to Adelaide (and the other clubs in the top 8 also).

Every club who finished around our level would have finished above us, had they managed to beat us.
Sydney did, and they came first, the others didn't, so they finished below.

Blaming the draw is pathetic.

 

[year of the cat]

1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Bulldogs
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Geelong
7. Collingwood
8. St Kilda

9. Richmond
10. Melbourne
11. Port Adelaide
12. Hawthorn
13. Essendon
14. Carlton
15. Fremantle
16. Gold Coast
17. North Melb
18. Brisbane

 

[baldandbroke]

Completely irrelevant to Geelong's final finishing position in relation to Adelaide (and the other clubs in the top 8 also).

Every club who finished around our level would have finished above us, had they managed to beat us.
Sydney did, and they came first, the others didn't, so they finished below.

Blaming the draw is pathetic.

Ricky, do you think the fixture is even? Or do you acknowledge that at the end year, when you look back - you can see some teams had an easier run than others? I don't think anyone is blaming the fixture but you would have to be blind to not think that it doesn't matter at all.

Here is last year's fixture analysis. Note that Geelong had and equal top 17 games in it's home state in 2016, and had the 10th toughest draw. They had the toughest average rating at home, and the 2nd easiest away. That is a bit of a perfect storm.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Ricky, do you think the fixture is even?

I'm not suggesting it's even, I'm suggesting that our 2 return games against Brisbane and Essendon were irrelevant. (particularly in relation to Adelaide)

Your draw analysis is great, but the strength of our draw wasn't why we finished second.
We'll fall down the ladder in 2017, but again, it won't be because of a tougher draw (if it actually ends up more challenging)

 

[Squibbs]

Having seen Fremantle's Draw I think they are a chance for 4th:

R1 - Geelong (DS) = W
R2 - Port Adelaide (AO) = W
R3 - Western Bulldogs (DS) = L
R4 - Melbourne (MCG) = W
R5 - North Melbourne (DS) = W
R6 - West Coast (A, DS) = W
R7 - Essendon (DS) = W
R8 - Richmond (MCG) = W
R9 - Carlton (DS) = W
R10 - Adelaide (AO) = L
R11 - Collingwood (DS) = W
R12 - Brisbane (G) = W
R13 - Bye
R14 - Geelong (SS) = L
R15 - St Kilda (DS) = W
R16 - North Melbourne (ES) = L
R17 - West Coast (H, DS) = W
R18 - Hawthorn (DS) = L
R19 - Greater Western Sydney (SPOS) = L
R20 - Gold Coast (DS) = W
R21 - Sydney (SCG) = L
R22 - Richmond (DS) = W
R23 - Essendon (ES) = W

What's with your weird obsession of Freo?

 

[Roovolution]

Port fans thought similar in the 2014 off season.

Yeah but Port fans are delusional

 

[HeHateMe]

Its looking like a hard year to predict.

 

[RePete]

Here's my attempt just quickly off the top of my head. Subject to change later.

1. Sydney - Solid all round, plenty of talent coming through
2. GWS - Young talent finally reaching potential
3. Bulldogs - Should come more consistant. Will be hard to stop at home. Can see them having a better run with injuries
4. Crows - Not really losing any players, younger players should become more consistent. Have decent depth.

5. Melbourne - Can see them finally putting it all together. Not a lot of weaknesses in their team. May be a real surprise packet.
6. Geelong - Aging backline, lack of young talent coming through, will show cracks but midfield should keep them up there
7. St Kilda - Good young team, plenty of young talent. One of those teams I just have a feeling will surprise a lot of people next year.
8. Hawthorn - Aging team, not a lot of good young talent but senior players and gameplan/coaching should see them stay in the 8

9. West Coast - ruck stocks will hurt them. Several senior players declining. Often look slow.
10. Fremantle - Not as bad as they looked this year. Shouldn't be as bad. Returning players will help, namely Fyfe and Sandi.
11. Port Adelaide - Can see them having a better year with injuries but don't think they have a good enough team across the board to push higher. Draftees will take time. A few of their younger players I don't rate as having very high ceilings.
12. Collingwood - Defense looks horrible. Weak offense and defense. Decent building midfield. Could go either way this team but hard to see them squeezing into the 8. Don't think their star recruits will be enough.
13. Suns - Need to blood and build their new talent.
14. Richmond - Don't excite me at all. Will probably lose structure without Vickery. No Delideo either and not much else coming through the ranks.
15. Essendon - Were bad before ban. Will be bad after. Even at their best their list doesn't look at great. Can see some of the returning players not playing near the level they were. Will take time to catch up.
16. North - Retired players gone will have huge impact. I have a feeling though North may hit above their weight and finish a few spots higher.
17. Carlton - Still a lot of cleaning needed here. Hard to rate a team full of rejects, and fringe players - with some fresh draftees thrown in there. Things will probably get worse before they get better.
18. Brisbane - Still young and raw. Another year or two building.

 

[JayJ20]

The laziest reason on here is "Essendon were bad before the ban, so will be bad after". Do you guys not realise the amount of injuries we had in 2015? Our midfield was depleted. We basically had a VFL side running around with a bunch of first and second year kids, who have now developed much more. Out of the banned 10, Colyer, Myers, Hocking, Watson and TBC hardly played in the second half. Plus, we had a sooking Carlisle, Hooker being played out of position in the second half and Hibberd who was down in form. Also recognise the big elephant in the room that is the WADA Appeal? We also had James Hird as coach and McKernan and Giles rucking...

Our defence was pretty tight before Hooker went forward. We were 4-4 by round 8 even though the "banned" players didn't have a preseason. After the WADA Appeal, the season spiralled out of control.

We are literally significantly better in every single aspect on field. With morales lifted, we'll be much better than 2015. It's hardly even the same side or gameplan. Only reason why I don't think we'll make the 8 is because of the quality we have to face off against to make it.

 

[Kram]

The laziest reason on here is "Essendon were bad before the ban, so will be bad after". Do you guys not realise the amount of injuries we had in 2015? Our midfield was depleted. We basically had a VFL side running around with a bunch of first and second year kids, who have now developed much more. Out of the banned 10, Colyer, Myers, Hocking, Watson and TBC hardly played in the second half. Plus, we had a sooking Carlisle, Hooker being played out of position in the second half and Hibberd who was down in form. Also recognise the big elephant in the room that is the WADA Appeal? We also had James Hird as coach and McKernan and Giles rucking...

Our defence was pretty tight before Hooker went forward. We were 4-4 by round 8 even though the "banned" players didn't have a preseason. After the WADA Appeal, the season spiralled out of control.

We are literally significantly better in every single aspect on field. With morales lifted, we'll be much better than 2015. It's hardly even the same side or gameplan. Only reason why I don't think we'll make the 8 is because of the quality we have to face off against to make it.

No doubt Essendon have some talent but it might take some time to gel and all come together. Could still struggle a fair bit next year before making a decent run up the ladder in 2018 for mine.

 

[Connar]

What's with your weird obsession of Freo?

Freo has awesome recruits including Brad Hill.

 

[TonaldDrump]

1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Bulldogs
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Geelong
7. Collingwood
8. St Kilda

9. Richmond
10. Melbourne
11. Port Adelaide
12. Hawthorn
13. Carlton
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melb
16. Brisbane

There's only 16 teams?

 

[baldandbroke]

I'm not suggesting it's even, I'm suggesting that our 2 return games against Brisbane and Essendon were irrelevant. (particularly in relation to Adelaide)

Your draw analysis is great, but the strength of our draw wasn't why we finished second.
We'll fall down the ladder in 2017, but again, it won't be because of a tougher draw (if it actually ends up more challenging)

I think you are just using too strong a terms. It can't be irrelevant, but it doesn't have to be the sole reason you finished 2nd either.

To say that the easier fixture contributed to Geelong's final ladder position is more than fair, as the fixture's toughness will no doubt contribute in 2017. How much an influence, positive or negative, is hard to put a figure on. I don't think the tougher fixture will have as big an influence on your wins and losses as losing Corey Enright will.

 

[Mattdougie]

Essendon Melbourne and StKilda aren't good enough

The faffle on here that they will make top 8 and some top 4 is deadset laughable.

 

[JRyan23]

GWS
WCE
Sydney
Fremantle
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
Gold Coast

St Kilda
Essendon
Geelong
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Carlton
Brisbane
Richmond
North Melbourne

 

[LB#16]

Essendon Melbourne and StKilda aren't good enough

The faffle on here that they will make top 8 and some top 4 is deadset laughable.

Rubbish. All three are on the up due to their excellent youth. Combine that with sides who made the eight last year dropping, they are every chance to make the 8.

 

[Lsta062]

Essendon Melbourne and StKilda aren't good enough

The faffle on here that they will make top 8 and some top 4 is deadset laughable.

Who do you think goes into the top 8 next year if it isn't any of these guys? I'd have thought at least one of them will make it.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Who do you think goes into the top 8 next year if it isn't any of these guys? I'd have thought at least one of them will make it.

Melbourne for North will be the change in top 8.

 

[Lsta062]

Melbourne for North will be the change in top 8.

I agree with that as a possibility. However, there is usually at least 2-3 changes to the top 8 though, so I'll just categorise them according to my opinion at the moment:

Likelihood on teams making the 8 from outside the 8:

Likely: Melbourne and St Kilda

Middle but leaning towards likely: Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Fremantle

Middle but leaning towards unlikely: Richmond, Gold Coast and Essendon

Unlikely: Carlton and Brisbane

Likelihood on teams missing the 8 from inside the 8:

Likely: North Melbourne

Middle but leaning towards likely: Hawthorn, Geelong and Adelaide

Middle but leaning towards unlikely: West Coast and Western Bulldogs

Unlikely: Sydney and GWS

May be strange that I put Adelaide and Geelong as leaning towards likely. Adelaide I feel haven't improved their list in the trade period but only lost depth. As a Richmond supporter, I can tell you what can happen if you don't improve your list when improvement is needed (2015-2016).

Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Geelong lost a bit of experience, and Fremantle 2015-2016 is the example for those three teams.

I think the likelihood of all four missing the top 8 is slim, but individually this is how I rate their likelihood. Having said that, I don't think it is unreasonable to think that 2-3 of them will miss the finals next year.

 

[Catsnlakers]

I agree with that as a possibility. However, there is usually at least 2-3 changes to the top 8 though, so I'll just categorise them according to my opinion at the moment:

Likelihood on teams making the 8 from outside the 8:

Likely: Melbourne and St Kilda

Middle but leaning towards likely: Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Fremantle

Middle but leaning towards unlikely: Richmond, Gold Coast and Essendon

Unlikely: Carlton and Brisbane

Likelihood on teams missing the 8 from inside the 8:

Likely: North Melbourne

Middle but leaning towards likely: Hawthorn, Geelong and Adelaide

Middle but leaning towards unlikely: West Coast and Western Bulldogs

Unlikely: Sydney and GWS

May be strange that I put Adelaide and Geelong as leaning towards likely. Adelaide I feel haven't improved their list in the trade period but only lost depth. As a Richmond supporter, I can tell you what can happen if you don't improve your list when improvement is needed (2015-2016).

Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Geelong lost a bit of experience, and Fremantle 2015-2016 is the example for those three teams.

I think the likelihood of all four missing the top 8 is slim, but individually this is how I rate their likelihood. Having said that, I don't think it is unreasonable to think that 2-3 of them will miss the finals next year.

I actually agree with most of that... No doubt my team will drop from 3rd this season, and the crows and hawks will be in a similar position to 2016.... I expect us all to make it but i wouldnt be shocked if onw doesn't and the saints take the other spot.

 

[schmuttt]

Completely irrelevant to Geelong's final finishing position in relation to Adelaide (and the other clubs in the top 8 also).

Every club who finished around our level would have finished above us, had they managed to beat us.
Sydney did, and they came first, the others didn't, so they finished below.

Blaming the draw is pathetic.

Considering Geelong dropped three games to non-finals teams and still finished top 2 I think the 2016 fixture argument is irrelevant for Geelong.

 

[LB#16]

I agree with that as a possibility. However, there is usually at least 2-3 changes to the top 8 though, so I'll just categorise them according to my opinion at the moment:

Likelihood on teams making the 8 from outside the 8:

Likely: Melbourne and St Kilda

Middle but leaning towards likely: Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Fremantle

Middle but leaning towards unlikely: Richmond, Gold Coast and Essendon

Unlikely: Carlton and Brisbane

Likelihood on teams missing the 8 from inside the 8:

Likely: North Melbourne

Middle but leaning towards likely: Hawthorn, Geelong and Adelaide

Middle but leaning towards unlikely: West Coast and Western Bulldogs

Unlikely: Sydney and GWS

May be strange that I put Adelaide and Geelong as leaning towards likely. Adelaide I feel haven't improved their list in the trade period but only lost depth. As a Richmond supporter, I can tell you what can happen if you don't improve your list when improvement is needed (2015-2016).

Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Geelong lost a bit of experience, and Fremantle 2015-2016 is the example for those three teams.

I think the likelihood of all four missing the top 8 is slim, but individually this is how I rate their likelihood. Having said that, I don't think it is unreasonable to think that 2-3 of them will miss the finals next year.

It's a bit strange to me to see teams like North, Geelong and Hawthorn being talked about as if they are "in the eight" when it's the off season so there is no top eight. If St Kilda, Melbourne and Essendon play quality football on a consistent basis, they'll be there. It really does not matter too much what those other teams mentioned are doing. In the same way that the Bulldogs didn't need their opponents to drop to allow them to take a premiership.

 

[Lsta062]

It's a bit strange to me to see teams like North, Geelong and Hawthorn being talked about as if they are "in the eight" when it's the off season so there is no top eight. If St Kilda, Melbourne and Essendon play quality football on a consistent basis, they'll be there. It really does not matter too much what those other teams mentioned are doing. In the same way that the Bulldogs didn't need their opponents to drop to allow them to take a premiership.

Yes, they aren't in the 8 in reality as it is the off-season, but it is a description I use when talking about changes to the ladder from one year to the next year.