2018 Australian Open

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Also for anyone wanting to rort the system and couldn't win money punting to save themselves like me, it's probably best to back the best server over the likely winner just before the start of the match and let probabilities and prices work for you. Unless of course you can actually make money betting tennis.
 
Watch Alexander Zverev this tournament has knocked off a few decent players the last 6 months like him to go deep (think he's a chance to knock out Rafa in the 3rd and potentially play and beat Mofils in the 4th)
 

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posted this on the AO thread in the tennis forum. will make one tomorrow and until i get banned.
i used
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/
http://tennisabstract.com/
for stats and odds.

i know more of WTA tennis than i do of the ATP, hence a slight bias towards them. most of the "if you musts" in the mens would still be bettervaluee than s**t Plislova, all things considered.

BobbyMorri said:
Wrote this for a bunch of friends. might as well post it here as well. It is the best bets to take advantage of the WH chase the ace. not as good as last year but still should be profitable if you are smart.

First Day (Chase the Ace tips)

ATP
Actual Odds, Ace % per point

MUSTS
Murray (1.01) 9.9% Bonus bet interest. 99/100 he will win.

Sam Querrey ($1.33) 15% Sam has been s**t since he beat Novak. But when he did, he hit 31 aces at 19%. But he is a risk worth taking this round.

John Isner ($1.11) 25%. Lowest number of aces in the last year for 5 set matches. 18. His PB of aces is 118. I don’t think 70-68 will happen again though.

Tomas Berdych ($1.04) 10% low chance he will lose. Vanni is a high acer as well, so perhaps long 3 sets.

Federer (1.08) 11%. Probably wont get 11% this match, but he is RF and he is a legend.

Lukas Lacko ($2.35) 9%. Plays a clay courter seed. Tennis abstract are saying he is a 85% chance to win. Not sure about that, but hope for a 5 set win with aces.

Wawrinka $1.03 (8%) stan is the man. 9/10, he will win and win easy.

Troicki $1.25 (10%) He should win. Playing a clay courter at heart.

Kyrgios ($1.08) (17%) only injury will prevent crazy nick from winning.

Tsonga ($1.02) (11%) Will win, will ace him in double figures.

Tomic ($1.40) 11%. Tomic is s**t, hasn’t won for a while and is a fat bastard. But he always gets up for the Aussie Summer normally. 11% is a risk worth taking.

Bedene ($1.20) 10%. Plays a clay courter. Know nothing of him.

Cilic ($1.10) 13% . he has played once after losing the Davis Cup. Should be a big serving game, so hopefully lots of games.


Your Choice

M Zverev $1.30 (7.2%) (small return, small risk)

Pouille $1.17 (10%) (Poullie is coming off a career best year. Hence why I am a little scared)

Harrison - Mahut (both around 10% in a 55/45% chance match)

Almagro - Nicolas Chardy Jeremy Both 10% in a another 50/50 match. Almagro will get slightly more aces, Chardy the better chance for a win.

Nishikori $1.10 (4%) just not worth the risk of him being injured and losing. 4% is weak.

Steve Johnson $1.24 (10%) Delbonis won the davis cup last match. Not something I really want to risk against for those odds.

Duckworth $1.90 (12%) the Duck is 12% last year BUT plays against weaker opponents. 9% in best of 5 sets matches, so that is still alright. Plays a clay courter mostly.

Groth $2.20 (20%) only 15% in best of 5 matches though. Groth is too s**t to take a gamble on.

Khachanov $1.73 (10%) if you want.

Sock ($1.25) 8%. Robert is a bigger serving, but he wont win.

WTA

Musts

s**t Pliskova v Golubic ($1.60) (12%) Yes a women can hit 12% of aces. They are rare, but it can happen. I don’t rate Golubic outdoors or returning.


--------Your Choice-----------
Shvedova $1.95 (5%) Don’t rate Begu outside of her nature habitat(clay)

Coco Vandeweghe (8%). I am passing, but she is a big server. I just don’t like the match up v Vinci.

McHale $1.40 (4%). Beat her opponent last week 1 and 2 with an ace ratio of 16%.

Muguruza $1.10 (6%) Mug is inconsistent but quality player

Barty. ($1.57) 4%. Beck is s**t. Barty will win.

Mona Barthel ($1.30) (7%) don’t like betting against an aussie, but Mona has a funny game which might be too much for the young aussie. Still Mona is a head case and is on the do not bet list.

Kiki Bertens ($1.56) (6%). Kiki should win I feel.
Click to expand...
 
FallingLiefs said:
Just got a page not found when looking for your bonus bet guide. Normally I just whack mine on the ponies on the rare few I get. Can't work out a hedging approach to retain 70% face value off top of my head at this hour so wouldn't mind a read just to work out how far down the pecking order of strong servers you should go.

At this stage I would be avoiding anyone under 7 aces a game. It looks to be a likely profit on every match just for people thinking about depositing a stack of money they normally wouldn't bet to get some free cash back it may be best to take it back a step and back the strong servers this year.
Click to expand...

Its fairly simple, you just need to find a market as close to 100% as possible between the book you have the bonus bet with and any other. But just need to make sure you whack the bonus bet on a selection paying >$4. Bigger the odds you can put the bonus bet on = bigger the % return you will get, but obviously more you have to spend to lay off on the other side

Heres the example from that page:

"For this example we will use the ATP Tennis match up between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic

After comparing the odds between Sportsbet and all other bookmakers we have found that Unibet offers the best odds about the opposing selection.

Nadal is paying $4.90 at Sportsbet
While Djokovic is paying $1.23 at Unibet

At Sportsbet you will place your $100 bonus bet on Nadal @ $4.90

Which will return $390 if Nadal wins, because most bonus bets don’t allow you to keep the stake amount

After this you will then divide that return of $390 by Djokovic’s odds of $1.23
$390 / $1.23 = $317.07

Next at Unibet we will place $317.07 on Djokovic @ $1.23

Which will return $390 if Djokovic wins

Now our 2 possible results are:

Nadal wins
$390 return at Sportsbet, minus the $317.07 lost a Unibet for a $72.93 profit

Djokovic wins
$390 return at Unibet, minus the $317.07 stake for a $72.93 profit

You have now turned your $100 bonus bet into about $72.93 cash (72.93%) risk free"

You can probably get about 80% if you have the funds to be able to lay it off at much bigger odds, but about 70% is a pretty attainable number for most punters so its usually what i go with.

Just betting them normally on the horses or something is fine too though so long as you are putting them on selections paying at least $3.50. Less than that and you start losing value
 
12 CTA bets today: 5 x $1s; 7 x 50c - flog mates snared $10 on Kyrgios and $5 on Querry :rolleyes:

Have taken

Isner
Kyrgios
Querry
Cilic
Almagro (hedged)
Tomic (hedged)
Tsonga
Pouille
Troicki
Berdych
Johnson
s**t Plisk (hedged)
 
benno_ said:
Says 'Not available to WA residents' but trying it out since half the time these promos work.

I got: Berdych ($5), Murray ($5), Tsonga ($2), Querrey (50c), Cillic (50c), Isner (50c)

Will probably try do a few 20 leg multis for the first round too for fun
Click to expand...

They blocked me as an SA resident. Spewing
 
BobbyMorri said:
posted this on the AO thread in the tennis forum. will make one tomorrow and until i get banned.
i used
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/
http://tennisabstract.com/
for stats and odds.

i know more of WTA tennis than i do of the ATP, hence a slight bias towards them. most of the "if you musts" in the mens would still be bettervaluee than s**t Plislova, all things considered.
Click to expand...
Thanks followed. Got the following:


Cilic @ $1
Bedene @ $1
Tomic @ $5
Tsonga @$0.50
Kyrgios @$0.50
Troicki @$1
Wawrinka @$0.50
Lacko @$2
Federer @$1
Murray @$1
Berdych @$1
Isner @$1
 
A couple of first round multies combined with a total of four futures bets.

MULTI: RBA v Pella o31.5 games, Fabbiano v Young u38.5 games, Janowicz +7.5 games at $6.88 w Sportsbet

MULTI: Dolgopolov win into Tomic win into Vesley +2.5 sets at $4.99 w Sportsbet.

Dimitrov win Aus Open at $75 w Betfair

Raonic Q3 winner into Konta Q4 winner at $18.75 w Topsport

MULTI: Murray Q1 winner into Muguruza Q1 winner at $8.31 w Ozbet

Monfils win Q3 at $16 w TAB
 
iluvparis said:
12 CTA bets today: 5 x $1s; 7 x 50c - flog mates snared $10 on Kyrgios and $5 on Querry :rolleyes:

Have taken

Isner
Kyrgios
Querry
Cilic
Almagro (hedged)
Tomic (hedged)
Tsonga
Pouille
Troicki
Berdych
Johnson
s**t Plisk (hedged)
Click to expand...
Bloke in a punting chat thread I am in got Isner @$10, another one at $10, 2x $5 and multiple $2.... Some are just lucky! There is always tomorrow for the rest of us!
 
Jugada said:
Its fairly simple, you just need to find a market as close to 100% as possible between the book you have the bonus bet with and any other. But just need to make sure you whack the bonus bet on a selection paying >$4. Bigger the odds you can put the bonus bet on = bigger the % return you will get, but obviously more you have to spend to lay off on the other side

Heres the example from that page:

"For this example we will use the ATP Tennis match up between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic

After comparing the odds between Sportsbet and all other bookmakers we have found that Unibet offers the best odds about the opposing selection.

Nadal is paying $4.90 at Sportsbet
While Djokovic is paying $1.23 at Unibet

At Sportsbet you will place your $100 bonus bet on Nadal @ $4.90

Which will return $390 if Nadal wins, because most bonus bets don’t allow you to keep the stake amount

After this you will then divide that return of $390 by Djokovic’s odds of $1.23
$390 / $1.23 = $317.07

Next at Unibet we will place $317.07 on Djokovic @ $1.23

Which will return $390 if Djokovic wins

Now our 2 possible results are:

Nadal wins
$390 return at Sportsbet, minus the $317.07 lost a Unibet for a $72.93 profit

Djokovic wins
$390 return at Unibet, minus the $317.07 stake for a $72.93 profit

You have now turned your $100 bonus bet into about $72.93 cash (72.93%) risk free"

You can probably get about 80% if you have the funds to be able to lay it off at much bigger odds, but about 70% is a pretty attainable number for most punters so its usually what i go with.

Just betting them normally on the horses or something is fine too though so long as you are putting them on selections paying at least $3.50. Less than that and you start losing value
Click to expand...
Just a note to those following this.

The bonus bets have a 7 day expiry as soon as they're credited to your account.
The bonus bets have to be turned over 1x at odds of 1.55 or greater.
 

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Having a small punt on Kusnetzov to upset Nishikori @ $7 (Tabtouch)

Also Bellucci and Halys to both win a set @ $2.2 (Ladbrokes)
 
I think most books would refund that because the first set wasn't completed.
 
What a start.

Nishikori, Halep and Muguruza all in trouble early.
 
BobbyMorri said:
posted this on the AO thread in the tennis forum. will make one tomorrow and until i get banned.
i used
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/
http://tennisabstract.com/
for stats and odds.

i know more of WTA tennis than i do of the ATP, hence a slight bias towards them. most of the "if you musts" in the mens would still be bettervaluee than s**t Plislova, all things considered.
Click to expand...

legend

Jugada said:
Its fairly simple, you just need to find a market as close to 100% as possible between the book you have the bonus bet with and any other. But just need to make sure you whack the bonus bet on a selection paying >$4. Bigger the odds you can put the bonus bet on = bigger the % return you will get, but obviously more you have to spend to lay off on the other side

Heres the example from that page:

"For this example we will use the ATP Tennis match up between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic

After comparing the odds between Sportsbet and all other bookmakers we have found that Unibet offers the best odds about the opposing selection.

Nadal is paying $4.90 at Sportsbet
While Djokovic is paying $1.23 at Unibet

At Sportsbet you will place your $100 bonus bet on Nadal @ $4.90

Which will return $390 if Nadal wins, because most bonus bets don’t allow you to keep the stake amount

After this you will then divide that return of $390 by Djokovic’s odds of $1.23
$390 / $1.23 = $317.07

Next at Unibet we will place $317.07 on Djokovic @ $1.23

Which will return $390 if Djokovic wins

Now our 2 possible results are:

Nadal wins
$390 return at Sportsbet, minus the $317.07 lost a Unibet for a $72.93 profit

Djokovic wins
$390 return at Unibet, minus the $317.07 stake for a $72.93 profit

You have now turned your $100 bonus bet into about $72.93 cash (72.93%) risk free"

You can probably get about 80% if you have the funds to be able to lay it off at much bigger odds, but about 70% is a pretty attainable number for most punters so its usually what i go with.

Just betting them normally on the horses or something is fine too though so long as you are putting them on selections paying at least $3.50. Less than that and you start losing value
Click to expand...


ok cheers was a long a day.

70% return and ignoring turnover requirements due to going back on tennis means easily 64c an ace and 2 to breakeven. sounds good to me.
 
FallingLiefs said:
just got $10 for Cilic.

does anyone have a list of the good ones to go tomorrow on the early games? i'm just going the shorties that i've heard of but if theres one i could make my money back on even if they lose that'd be neat too.
Click to expand...

Seriously.
Thats ******* winning!

He's one of the highest ace servers.
 
Raonic would probably be the number one choice, wouldn't he?
 
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