Prediction Q: If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

[Dirty Bird]

Look, I know people have opened this thread thinking it's a moronic statement to make. But look at these stats

2008-2016

44 teams started 0-2.
1 Earned finals off their own back. (Sydney 2014)
I had to word it that way because Carlton 2013 did make it based on Essendon being kicked out.

Now ask yourself. Is it worth gunning for that years premiership.
There's a 2.27% chance in the last 9 years you're even making finals to begin with.

And it's not just s**t teams doing this.

2008 - Port Adelaide (Coming off a grand final) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2009 - Hawthorn (Coming off a premiership) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2010 - Adelaide (1 kick off a prelim) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2013 - West Coast (semi finalists) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2015 - Geelong (tied for 1st on points) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2015 - Port Adelaide (1 kick off a grand final) missed finals after an 0-2 start

I just look at these stats and I think a premiership is basically off the table if you start 0-2.
I think after that point, you just blood kids. Give them the support so theyre not pigs to slaughter like GOld Coast basically have been their whole existance.

I dont mean ditch all your experienced players, but rest 1-3 a week and give the kids a chance to show what they can do without putting them completely to hell.

What do others think?
I know it's a controversial thought to basically be admitting defeat and changing tactics to focus on the future (I view that as tanking) but when the stats are so strong, when has to contemplate if it's worth it.

And also remember, with GWS and GC now in the league that's another 2 teams you have to jump to get into the 8, so it's harder than it was back in 2008.

 

[Jakksynn]

Before last year, no team had ever won from outside the top 4. Did that stop the bulldogs?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Before last year, no team had ever won from outside the top 4. Did that stop the bulldogs?

Melbourne 1900, Adelaide 1998.....

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

Melbourne 1900, Adelaide 1997.....

according to footywire, Adelaide finished 4th in 1997

they won 4 finals in a row, but that was under the McIntyre Final 8 system.

Bulldogs are the first under the current system to win outside Top 4.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Depends on your first 2 games. Up and comer plays 2 established top 4 teams, loses respectably, no problem.

Last years top 4, loose 2 games to anyone? Not a problem really.

It really depends on team and circumstances.

 

[Jakksynn]

Melbourne 1900, Adelaide 1997.....

Obviously I meant under the current finals system.

My point is, just because it hasn't been done, doesn't mean it can't be done. GWS have never in the history of the universe, won a premiership. That sure as hell isnt going to stop them from dominating the competition.

 

[kane249]

Sydney have twice recovered from 0-2 starts to make grand finals.

In 2006 and 2014 they were 1-3 after 4 rounds, but stuck to it and made the grabd final both years. Yes they lost both thise years, but the point is you can turn things around and not just throw in the towel.

 

[LeverPuller]

according to footywire, Adelaide finished 4th in 1997

they won 4 finals in a row, but that was under the McIntyre Final 8 system.

Bulldogs are the first under the current system to win outside Top 4.

He got the year wrong, Adelaide won it from 5th in 1998. Yes under the McIntyre. Lost week 1 too. Didn't go 0-2 though.

 

[underthestars]

Saints in 97 lost their first two, and were sitting at one and four. Went on to win the minor premiership, and if they'd had a ruckman on the field may well have won the flag.

 

[DelRe]

What do others think?
I know it's a controversial thought to basically be admitting defeat and changing tactics to focus on the future (I view that as tanking) but when the stats are so strong, when has to contemplate if it's worth it.

Interesting stat - bit like for all the late season mathematical possibilities the 8 seems settled very early on in the year and notwithstanding last year the premier usually comes from the top 4. That said, no coach is going to throw in the towel after 2 rounds - self preservation and lack of excuses at that point would prevent them - and while the percentage likelihood of success may be low you'd prob still take those odds at that point.

Incidentally didn't Crows start off really slow in one of their flags? Also thought for Cats dominance in '07 they started 2-3 and had a bad loss to Roos at Kardinia? Not sure if either had 0-2 starts though.

 

[Nomad12]

Good stat , that seems impossible. For all them teams to miss finals it is pretty damnin but to think your no hope after 0-2 is ridiculous. Your 2 games off first still haha and a lot can change for all teams by finals. but maybe random that its never happened or maybe players have a bit of doubt after starting like that and lose confidence/belief... * knows I'm tired as * probly not even makin sense.

 

[Underarm]

I wouldn't count Adelaide out if they are 0-2 after vs GWS and Hawthorn. It's a rough start but it wouldn't be season over.


Not to mention how stupid it would be to give up on a season 2 weeks into it. Richmond 2014 shows why you should never give up after a poor start.

 

[HighBudget]

Look, I know people have opened this thread thinking it's a moronic statement to make. But look at these stats

2008-2016

44 teams started 0-2.
1 Earned finals off their own back. (Sydney 2014)
I had to word it that way because Carlton 2013 did make it based on Essendon being kicked out.

Now ask yourself. Is it worth gunning for that years premiership.
There's a 2.27% chance in the last 9 years you're even making finals to begin with.

And it's not just s**t teams doing this.

2008 - Port Adelaide (Coming off a grand final) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2009 - Hawthorn (Coming off a premiership) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2010 - Adelaide (1 kick off a prelim) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2013 - West Coast (semi finalists) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2015 - Geelong (tied for 1st on points) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2015 - Port Adelaide (1 kick off a grand final) missed finals after an 0-2 start

I just look at these stats and I think a premiership is basically off the table if you start 0-2.
I think after that point, you just blood kids. Give them the support so theyre not pigs to slaughter like GOld Coast basically have been their whole existance.

I dont mean ditch all your experienced players, but rest 1-3 a week and give the kids a chance to show what they can do without putting them completely to hell.

What do others think?
I know it's a controversial thought to basically be admitting defeat and changing tactics to focus on the future (I view that as tanking) but when the stats are so strong, when has to contemplate if it's worth it.

And also remember, with GWS and GC now in the league that's another 2 teams you have to jump to get into the 8, so it's harder than it was back in 2008.

I would but our future's gone

 

[Bokonon_]

We were 1-2 after three rounds last year, and beat Geelong in round 2 narrowly becuase of a new found ability to clòse games out. Think those rounds are worth the same points as any other. Does cause supporters ro worry though, I know I was .

 

[Billy ray]

So basically, forget 17-5 Gil, go with a 2-20 fixture

 

[loki04]

0-2 No.

0-5 Likely.

0-8 Definitely.

 

[juss]

If Richmond can make the finals after starting 3-10, GWS can make the finals after starting 0-2

Here's another one for you, most premiership teams only have 1 or 2 readheads (if any). If you have any more, should you cut your losses and start a new 5 year plan?

 

[Run n Spread]

Bulldogs lost 2 games in a row last year and won the flag.

But I take the point. 8 is set early and it is too hard practically and psychologically to make up ground after a slow start in an even comp.

0-2 ridiculously early. 0-4 or even 2-4 you have a point.

 

[_Mike_]

nah... The season is a marathon.. As long as you rack up enough wins to cement your spot in the 8.

Look at North last year - No way in hell people would have said North would play finals if they started 0-9 as opposed to 9-0

 

[Jesse Custer]

How far into the future we're talking about. The rest of the year? Next year? Or the next 5 years? Sometimes the future talk/planning doesn't work out anyway.

 

[Underarm]

If Richmond can make the finals after starting 3-10, GWS can make the finals after starting 0-2

Here's another one for you, most premiership teams only have 1 or 2 readheads (if any). If you have any more, should you cut your losses and start a new 5 year plan?

Richmond have always had too many I feel.

 

[Mofra]

It's one of those weird quirks of the AFL system that is slowly falling by the wayside.
There were a high number of years where a team from outside the 8 would finish in the top 4, will be hard to see that occurring this year - Melbourne, Saints, even Freo potentially but there are a lot of teams that are in contention this year.

 

[00Stinger]

So clubs should start tanking in early April?

Wow, I'm just glad a Melbourne supporter didn't start this thread

 

[00Stinger]

nah... The season is a marathon.. As long as you rack up enough wins to cement your spot in the 8.

Look at North last year - No way in hell people would have said North would play finals if they started 0-9 as opposed to 9-0

Not sure ehat your point is

 

[iluvparis]

It's one of those weird quirks of the AFL system that is slowly falling by the wayside.
There were a high number of years where a team from outside the 8 would finish in the top 4, will be hard to see that occurring this year - Melbourne, Saints, even Freo potentially but there are a lot of teams that are in contention this year.

Is what way does 2/44 mean the stat is 'slowly falling by the wayside'?