North Make Godfather Offer To Kelly

[Mofra]

Our dream is over, Josh has a dog

Didn't help Jordan de Goey much

 

[PAFCsince1870]

The way I see it is the supporters of the sixteen other clubs should be thrilled.

GWS lose a guy with perennial All-Australian potential while North Melbourne hamstring their salary cap for the next decade.

 

[Jade]

yeah but this is obv different with that kind of offer.

I just recall from all the O'Meara hoo-ha and the EFC stategy. Could have walked him if he chose to, but all I ever heard was that if he did pick EFC we'd deal, and there was zero chance of walking him, as it's just not done. It's bad business, it treats the other club like s**t and even disrespects the player

Precisely this.

Clubs would only walk a highly regarded player to the PSD if the losing club was being completely ridiculous in its demands. The danger of doing so as a way to get around trading would be that the industry would view you quite poorly - and in such an insular industry that would be akin to blowing your own foot off.

Funny you should mention O'Meara though.

Prior to him declaring his interest to join the Hawks, Essendon weren't so much as considering the PSD for the above reasons.

However, the comments by Cochrane were so utterly absurd that I reckon it started becoming a real risk.

That bloke should seriously stop speaking re: footy matters.

 

[Furn2]

well that's just an assumption and one predicated on an unsupported premise. That being, that Kelly decides the size of the offer. Why on earth would you think that? Why would you assume that he has been approached with and turned down smaller offers? Have you any evidence for that assertion or are you basing it entirely on the premise you seem to be, which is that because it has happened so far out then it must be the result of a lot of negotiation? Kind of a strange thing to conclude, the logical conclusion would seem to point in the other direction I would have thought.

Give North their due here, they've gone big on this one, and have put their absolute best foot forward. That alone, as a strategy, implies that no other offers have been made, as you generally don't negotiate studiously around the edges only then throw the entire kitty on the table. You would generally do one or the other depending on the strategy you have decided on.

I guess you would come out and straight up offer $2mil for a house valued at $800k ?

If you think $9mil was the first offer then youre very naive. what if he would have taken half that ? thats even more stupid.

 

[LeverPuller]

Bizarre deal for a mid - for a KPF I get it, but a midfielder?

And look, I understand you have to pay somebody, but at the same time, when you're staring a rebuild in the face is that where you want to start? By throwing $9mil over 9 and two first rounders (probably) at a player instead of going to the draft?

 

[Scotland]

Why should it matter though? You're partly paying for the player they are and partly paying for the player you anticipate they'll become.

I'd be uneasy about my club committing $1m a season for the next decade for a player on potential.

In the case of Scully, GWS had plenty of money to splash around and wanted a young gun midfielder. He was a number 1 draft pick who'd already shown some really good form at AFL level and unfortunately never become an elite player. He's still a gun though.

GWS was a special case in that they started with 30 odd draftees in their initial squad so had squillions to spend and very options on which to spend it. Scully has turned out OK and it was a front loaded deal.

Similar scenario with Boyd. The Bulldogs had cap space and desperately wanted a young gun key position forward to compliment their young midfield contingency. He was also a number 1 pick and still had years to become the dominant KPP they needed.

Another front loaded deal but it came about from losing Griffen so it's not like they planned a year in advance to have $1m of cap space.

If North see Kelly's worth as 1 mil p/a then all the more power to them. History has shown that these young guys haven't come on to be the superstars their clubs expect, but if they've got the cap room and they see him as a good fit, then it might be a shrewd move. He'll have a talented young group of mids to work with and has already shown enough to suggest he'll be a dominant player in time.

It's the sort of offer I'd expect a club like North to be making for Fyfe or Martin who are established top 10 players with 5-8 seasons left. The 9 years thing (which may well be bullshit) is a huge risk for a guy who hasn't proven himself as an elite player at AFL level yet. If it was $1m a year over 4 or 5 years front loaded to make use of the space being created by moving on older players I could see it, but a Franklin length deal is just too much for mine.

 

[La Dispute]

I'd be uneasy about my club committing $1m a season for the next decade for a player on potential.

GWS was a special case in that they started with 30 odd draftees in their initial squad so had squillions to spend and very options on which to spend it. Scully has turned out OK and it was a front loaded deal.

Another front loaded deal but it came about from losing Griffen so it's not like they planned a year in advance to have $1m of cap space.

It's the sort of offer I'd expect a club like North to be making for Fyfe or Martin who are established top 10 players with 5-8 seasons left. The 9 years thing (which may well be bullshit) is a huge risk for a guy who hasn't proven himself as an elite player at AFL level yet. If it was $1m a year over 4 or 5 years front loaded to make use of the space being created by moving on older players I could see it, but a Franklin length deal is just too much for mine.

Could easily happen though. Say Cripps wants out at the end of the year, he wouldn't be worth 1 mil at the moment, but could still command that much from a WA-based club.

It still doesn't justify his contract. Each case is unique, and if North feel it works within their finances, they'd be obliged to have a crack. Regardless whether you plan for having money spare, the opportunity was there and the Bulldogs took it up.

I don't think North will be contenders for a few years so players like Fyfe and Martin may not be interested in joining, but a young gun looking for a big contract in his home state might. Kelly may well be an elite player in a few years, but at absolute worst he'll end up a very strong footballer.

Not advocating it either way, but I think North would certainly have reasons to consider it.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

I guess you would come out and straight up offer $2mil for a house valued at $800k ?

If you think $9mil was the first offer then youre very naive. what if he would have taken half that ? thats even more stupid.

Buying a house is nothing like prying a player out of a team in which he is almost guaranteed to become a multiple premiership winner. Nor are players' worth as defined as the way a house is.

You have zero evidence to suggest they have sat around a table and haggled until they got to a figure acceptable to Kelly. What's naive is thinking that the final figure outlaid is the minimum a player would take to play at another club.

If you want to use real estate as a metaphor for this kind of process you are better off thinking of the sealed bid system, where market value is undetermined and you simply need to do your absolute best to secure the prized asset you are after

 

[Substance]

I was thinking, can Kelly expect a horse head in his bed if he refuses?

 

[Ry009]

I was thinking, can Kelly expect a horse head in his bed if he refuses?

Longmire is only down the road, so a good chance.

 

[captain cotch 9]

In 5-6 years most good players will be on 1mill+ a year.
Its not stupid from North IMO.
Kelly is a gun.

 

[Substance]

Longmire is only down the road, so a good chance.

Yeah well I though the Godfather offer included a death threat should one refuse.

 

[Scotland]

In 5-6 years most good players will be on 1mill+ a year.
Its not stupid from North IMO.
Kelly is a gun.

Define 'good'. There are currently a handful of players earning $1m a year in the AFL.

 

[Furn2]

Buying a house is nothing like prying a player out of a team in which he is almost guaranteed to become a multiple premiership winner. Nor are players' worth as defined as the way a house is.

You have zero evidence to suggest they have sat around a table and haggled until they got to a figure acceptable to Kelly. What's naive is thinking that the final figure outlaid is the minimum a player would take to play at another club.

If you want to use real estate as a metaphor for this kind of process you are better off thinking of the sealed bid system, where market value is undetermined and you simply need to do your absolute best to secure the prized asset you are after

Why do they need to make one sealed offer ? That makes no sense. You call up his manager and talk. You don't send a sealed envelope with you bets offer ?

You are saying they've offered a 22 year old who's played 50 odd games the second biggest contract in the history of the sport without so much as a phone call to his manager about what sort of money he's after ?

How do they know he wouldn't have taken way less ? That would be beyond incompetent by North.

 

[Tasfut]

He has to accept that if its offered to him. What is a premiership worth though? GWS will likely win multiple premierships in the next 9 years while North most likely none.

 

[#gosaintas]

so does bidding $100k increase for a house when the auction is moving at $10k bids. Doesn't make it necessarily a smart move though

If you want the house, it works. Like real estate, player salaries go up. Good move North.

 

[TheKanga]

I'd love to snare him but i think he's pretty content up at GWS.
He does have family connections to North and was a childhood supporter.
However he told his family they all had to switch to GWS supporters now (obviously) but yeah.

 

[DrZaius]

He has to accept that if its offered to him. What is a premiership worth though? GWS will likely win multiple premierships in the next 9 years while North most likely none.

How can that be said with any certainty at this point though? We only have to look at the Dogs over the last few years to see how quickly things can turn around.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

The way I see it is the supporters of the sixteen other clubs should be thrilled.

GWS lose a guy with perennial All-Australian potential while North Melbourne hamstring their salary cap for the next decade.

We wont though.

As has been mentioned ad nauseum the salary cap is increasing by a large amount and will continue to do so.

We have also had a practice of front ending contracts over Scott's tenure so we have a lot available and can knock out a huge chunk of the contract over the first couple of years. Not to mention likely 2-3 m worth of contracts being terminated when last and this years list changes are finalised (Black 400k+, Wells 450k+ Dal Santo ~450k, Swallow/Thompson/Hansen contracts possibly ending).

We will have a decent amount invested in Kelly if he takes the offer. We won't be hamstrung.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

I think it's a good move by North. The kid is a gun. This is the kind of offer you need to lock away a gun player nowadays.

 

[ManOfClay]

Will be a disaster for north if he doesn't sign. After offering heeney a mill and being rejected as well. What will it cost for a good young player to go to Arden street?

 

[Superstar swan]

I'd be uneasy about my club committing $1m a season for the next decade for a player on potential.



GWS was a special case in that they started with 30 odd draftees in their initial squad so had squillions to spend and very options on which to spend it. Scully has turned out OK and it was a front loaded deal.



Another front loaded deal but it came about from losing Griffen so it's not like they planned a year in advance to have $1m of cap space.



It's the sort of offer I'd expect a club like North to be making for Fyfe or Martin who are established top 10 players with 5-8 seasons left. The 9 years thing (which may well be bullshit) is a huge risk for a guy who hasn't proven himself as an elite player at AFL level yet. If it was $1m a year over 4 or 5 years front loaded to make use of the space being created by moving on older players I could see it, but a Franklin length deal is just too much for mine.

your club already did with nic nat didnt it?

 

[Jobe Watson]

Even for a million a year, would a player really want to give up playing in a team destined for multiple Grand Final appearances for a club who will spend the foreseeable future in the bottom 8?

 

[king rising]

Will be a disaster for north if he doesn't sign. After offering heeney a mill and being rejected as well. What will it cost for a good young player to go to Arden street?

As a North supporter myself, i actually agree with this. I feel asthough kelly is worth every cent and will be a multiple AA. However, if he was to reject such a hefty offer, especially when he has legitimate family connections to the club and the mega offer has become public, i feel this would be a terrible look. As though its just been rubbed in our face. If you make these colossal offers public, you gotta deliver. On the upside, the longer he stays unsigned, he is a day closer to accepting our deal.

 

[SSSSSS]

Even for a million a year, would a player really want to give up playing in a team destined for multiple Grand Final appearances for a club who will spend the foreseeable future in the bottom 8?

A million a year in a Victorian club (albeit a tiny one) could set you up for life. Flags are definitely something every player plays for and you only get so many chances in life.

Extremely hard decision for a young kid.