AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

puntking

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
892
647
AFL Club
St Kilda
not being biased but thinking saints with the line vs Cats is a great bet we seem to play well against them
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benno_

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
681
740
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Perth Wildcats
wire to wire at $1.50 (I expect a fast start).

I'm liking the wire to wire even at those odds. Carlton haven't won a first quarter yet, Port have won 2/4 but both of those 2 were at home against Freo and Adelaide. Expecting them to lead at quarter time continue on from there to win the game.
 

Vhaluus

Cancelled
10k Posts
May 13, 2016
15,604
16,943
AFL Club
Adelaide
You have to be quick with these tweetabets if you like them. I put a small bet on prior and it was paying $12.

I'm hoping it's a fast flowing affair and Carlton don't deliberately play defensive to keep the loss smaller. I expect that they won't take foot off in the last quarter either given that should be a focus given fadeouts against Ade and GWS.

Also on Port to win, over 107.5 and Robbie Gray first goal at $15 and wire to wire at $1.50 (I expect a fast start).

Adding Ryder over 100 fantasy points.

Damn 12 would be juicy.

Do the tweet a bets get posted at a certain time or do you just have to watch it constantly?
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,456
2,796
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Damn 12 would be juicy.

Do the tweet a bets get posted at a certain time or do you just have to watch it constantly?
I think they get posted on Wednesday from memory (same as the Unibet specials) so I try and look them over to try and find some value. I assume you have to be quick because the quick value will get snapped up and I guess it won't take much for the odds to move.
 

Vhaluus

Cancelled
10k Posts
May 13, 2016
15,604
16,943
AFL Club
Adelaide
I think they get posted on Wednesday from memory (same as the Unibet specials) so I try and look them over to try and find some value. I assume you have to be quick because the quick value will get snapped up and I guess it won't take much for the odds to move.

Thanks for the tip. I'm actually thinking of starting a list of all the key market posting times and putting it on the forums once it's looking pretty complete. I miss way too much value by not looking in the right place at the right time and I imagine others are the same.
 

benno_

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
681
740
AFL Club
West Coast
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Perth Wildcats
few DT bets I like, don't love any of them though, all have a little risk. All at Crown.

1.1U Bob Murphy <88.5 @1.88

His milestone game, but he's only gone over this once this year, I feel it could be a tiny bit too high. Depends on how much you think the 'milestone factor' comes into it.

1.1U Michael Johnson +20.5 vs Robbie Tarrant @1.88
Johnson only averaging 56 but scored 75 last week being involved more as a back up ruck. Tarrant is averaging a career high 83. One score (84) this year was thanks to a career high 10 tackles, and another (108) from a career high touches. I don't see his scoring being sustainable or consistent so hoping the +20.5 is enough of a head start for Johnson.

1.1U SPP -5.5 vs SPS
SPP has been scoring alright more consistently (71, 84, 68, 39) compared to SPS who has been average apart from 1 game (59, 51, 114, 49) , I think he should be able to cover that line.
 

benno_

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
681
740
AFL Club
West Coast
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Perth Wildcats
Like these ones even more:

1.1U JPK -10.5 DT vs Ward @1.88

110 average vs 77 average. Ward also has an average record against the swans. JPK should be able to cover 10 points easily.

1.1U Ward <95.5 DT @1.88
Similar reason to above.

1.1U Josh Kelly -13.5 DT vs Mumford @1.88
109 average vs 85 average, pretty self explanatory lol. Mummy only has 1 decent score so far this year. Also doesn't score that great against the swans.

1.1U Mumford under 90.5 @1.88

*lines and prices have changed slightly since my bets
 
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Spads

All Australian
Aug 16, 2012
654
465
AFL Club
Collingwood
Any thoughts on Freo v North?
I like the north line. Based upon their starts Freo are now being overrated and north being underrated.

I have this game as close to 50-50, and I know that "this isn't how gambling works", but north are value.
 

Spads

All Australian
Aug 16, 2012
654
465
AFL Club
Collingwood
You have to be quick with these tweetabets if you like them. I put a small bet on prior and it was paying $12.

I'm hoping it's a fast flowing affair and Carlton don't deliberately play defensive to keep the loss smaller. I expect that they won't take foot off in the last quarter either given that should be a focus given fadeouts against Ade and GWS.

Also on Port to win, over 107.5 and Robbie Gray first goal at $15 and wire to wire at $1.50 (I expect a fast start).

Adding Ryder over 100 fantasy points.
But is the post showdown letdown factor embedded in calculations?
 

Sausage Legs

Club Legend
Sep 17, 2014
1,150
1,292
AFL Club
West Coast
Ryder's form has been overstated in this thread imo. Has not been racking up many possessions and only averaging 76 DT points.
thats no way to speak about the Peter Badcoe medallist. I personally don't think he will break 100dt's but will or should have big influence.
 

Infra Ted

Cancelled
A Star Wars Fan Pokemon is Life
Jan 28, 2015
3,470
4,684
AFL Club
Adelaide
It's under 'multi scorers'.

Just looked and its into @3 and @9 now though, I was going to tail it for 0.5U but not so sure now.
Yeah thanks found it.

Disappointed that it's shortened but I still put half a unit on.
 

Infra Ted

Cancelled
A Star Wars Fan Pokemon is Life
Jan 28, 2015
3,470
4,684
AFL Club
Adelaide
1.5U Marc Murphy vs Nat Fyfe @ $1.88 - crown

Murphy averaging 133 points, Fyfe 107.
 

Jugada

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
10,702
12,657
AFL Club
West Coast
You have to be quick with these tweetabets if you like them. I put a small bet on prior and it was paying $12.

I'm hoping it's a fast flowing affair and Carlton don't deliberately play defensive to keep the loss smaller. I expect that they won't take foot off in the last quarter either given that should be a focus given fadeouts against Ade and GWS.

Also on Port to win, over 107.5 and Robbie Gray first goal at $15 and wire to wire at $1.50 (I expect a fast start).

Adding Ryder over 100 fantasy points.

What odds was the Ryder over 100 fantasy?

Are the Port vs Blues TweetABet markets still up by the way? That match isn't coming up for me
 

benno_

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
681
740
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Perth Wildcats
1U Stringer 4+ marks @2 (lads player bets)

Averages 4.5 this year and covered it 3/4 games (7, 3, 4, 4). I've seen him drop some absolute sitters so could easily have been more. With Cloke out he'll become more of a target up forward and against the lions I reckon he should be able to get the 4+ needed.
 

JC Hawks

Club Legend
Nov 9, 2011
1,903
1,404
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
1U Stringer 4+ marks @2 (lads player bets)

Averages 4.5 this year and covered it 3/4 games (7, 3, 4, 4). I've seen him drop some absolute sitters so could easily have been more. With Cloke out he'll become more of a target up forward and against the lions I reckon he should be able to get the 4+ needed.
Lucky you got on so soon. Down to $1.30 now.
 

DylanR

Club Legend
Jul 4, 2014
1,068
903
Sydney
AFL Club
Essendon
0.5u Dixon 3+ goals Port win @3.25 (TAB), expecting Port to kick a big score and there's a good chance Dixon can kick 3

Also on 40+ from earlier in the week and HT line -21.5
 
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