AFL 2017 - AFL Round 7

[CarterS]

$3.60 available on Richmond (Bet365) which will surely change as the next best price in the market is $3.30. Did up my own odds before looking at the round and had Richmond about $2.70 or so. Adelaide in rare form so that is a forgive for me. Richmond's first quarter was red hot.

 

[Jugada]

Richmond fantastic value. Not surprised the market has completely over corrected on the back of 1 round of footy though

 

[Jugada]

Value: GWS, Carlton, Gold Coast, Richmond, Fremantle

Leans in the other matches: North, West Coast, Sydney, Melbourne

 

[langdon19]

Freo line looks good.

 

[Vhaluus]

Lines:

Freo
GWS
Adelaide

 

[Victor harbor]

Freo line looks good.

Taking port line now. should blow out during the week

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I really like Crows and Melbourne line

 

[maskmcgee]

It was a serious question. Why should the Bulldogs be 1-5?

Collingwood convert/kick straight after dominating all match, Brisbane/North both stay awake, Thomas kicks straight, bang, Dogs are 1-5.
Also, this is a punting board, you can talk about how s**t the dogs are somewhere else. And before you reply "URRR UR TALKN ABUT HOW s**t THE DOOGS R", all I do is post that the the Dogs are going to lose and you instantly launch into a tirade about how the Dogs can't possibly lose a match for one reason or another. Sure proved you wrong last week.But I'm not interested in the intricities of your stupid Bulldogs, I'm interested in betting on the winners in football matches.

 

[DylanR]

If Port line blows out more, I think I'd be willing to take WC at the line. Like an earlier poster stated you can't confuse MCG away record with Adelaide Oval as WC play very well there and I think WC could possibly challenge Port

 

[targett]

Early lines taken during week

Port. -7.5. Current. -16.6
Crows -15.5 Current. -36.5
GWS. - 12.5 Current. -14.5
Tigers +16.5. Current +19.5

Will look to middle these.The Tigers line might just hold tight till pre match to see what happen worst case just hedge out maybe putting bias on the bulldogs.The unpredictability of team performance has me leaning to the Middles rather than taking the lines.

 

[mookieb]

Early lines taken during week

Port. -7.5. Current. -16.6
Crows -15.5 Current. -36.5
GWS. - 12.5 Current. -14.5
Tigers +16.5. Current +19.5

Will look to middle these.The Tigers line might just hold tight till pre match to see what happen worst case just hedge out maybe putting bias on the bulldogs.The unpredictability of team performance has me leaning to the Middles rather than taking the lines.

Yeah i'm looking to do the same thing going forward although i'm planning on middling half and letting the rest ride. Personally I don't want to take an early line that gets blown out and then not profiting from it at the end. The only concern I have is whether getting in early will eventually see me banned from bookies especially Sportsbet which offer lines while games are in-play (Hawks were favs vs Melb during the 2nd qtr of the Hawks / Saints game).

The other issue is if the line moves against you. Currently you have a 3 point "reverse middle" with Richmond and Nankervis is out. I have hedged some games and then "bought" the middle if the line moved against me. Anyway i'm on:

Coll - 14.5
Freo -4.5
Port -9.5
Melb $2.07
WB -10.5

 

[targett]

Not sure what you mean "Bought Middle" . You should consider Arbing the Melb game gettting the Hawks @ 2.80 is a nice 19% return guaranteed.Thats alot more than the bank will give you Sunday afternoon
As far as getting limited taking early markets .I have heard some books are more nasty about it than others and People have been limited.

 

[mookieb]

Not sure what you mean "Bought Middle" . You should consider Arbing the Melb game gettting the Hawks @ 2.80 is a nice 19% return guaranteed.Thats alot more than the bank will give you Sunday afternoon
As far as getting limited taking early markets .I have heard some books are more nasty about it than others and People have been limited.

So if you get Rich +16.5 and you change your opinion on the match. If the line blows out to +19.5 and you hedge WB -19.5 you have a dangerous 3 point middle against you. This has happened to me a couple of times so I have chucked a few bonus bets on to cover ie WB to win by 18 or 19.

 

[Spads]

As far as getting limited taking early markets .I have heard some books are more nasty about it than others and People have been limited.

Do it while you can. You will be limited quickly though if you keep betting weak lines at times when the market is illiquid. If the lines consistently move in your favour, and you are betting 3 figures, you might get a few weeks out of it.

But your bet365, sportsbet and Ladbrokes accounts are worthless anyway.

 

[HeavyPop]

I'm starting to think the quarter time lines are where the value lies this year. Crownbet have some good value, but strangely only have the first two quarters available to bet on.

 

[TheScream]

Bet of the round for me this week is the Under 185.5 in the Port - Eagles game. Looks an overs game on first glance but Port actually have a very good defence this year, kept adelaide to only 100 points in round 3, conceded the 2nd lowest scoring shots. West Coast also have an above average defence (and a below average offence) and imo will try and slow the temp away from home. See a high pressure game something like a 91-76 kind of game. Also have Under 186.5 Bulldogs - Richmond & Melb -15.5 ($2)

 

[TheScream]

What's going on with the Swans line? An 0-6 team, totally bereft of all confidence and form favoured by 40 points???

 

[free at last]

Do it while you can. You will be limited quickly though if you keep betting weak lines at times when the market is illiquid. If the lines consistently move in your favour, and you are betting 3 figures, you might get a few weeks out of it.

But your bet365, sportsbet and Ladbrokes accounts are worthless anyway.

Which of the those 3 corporate betting companies have you found to be the most lenient?

 

[hedgedhog]

What's going on with the Swans line? An 0-6 team, totally bereft of all confidence and form favoured by 40 points???

Definitely don't understand that. Swans shouldn't be 40pt favourites over any team in the competition.

 

[langdon19]

Bet of the round for me this week is the Under 185.5 in the Port

186.5 at crown

 

[maskmcgee]

What's going on with the Swans line? An 0-6 team, totally bereft of all confidence and form favoured by 40 points???

And Brisbane have, bar last week, been very good in every match they've played.

 

[iluvparis]

And Brisbane have, bar last week, been very good in every match they've played.

Yeah they were real good in getting belted by 9 goals by Richmond at home

 

[langdon19]

Bris seem to like Etihad, home away from home?

 

[targett]

Bris seem to like Etihad, home away from home?

1/6 average losing margain 29 pts

 

[maskmcgee]

Yeah they were real good in getting belted by 9 goals by Richmond at home

Yes, losing to a top 4 team in Richmond, then almost defeating the reigning premiers away from home, Sydney should have no problem beating them by 7 goals. I'm sure Sydney would get within 2 goals of Richmond?