- Jun 22, 2008
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- Geelong
Alright, I've been banging on about this for 2 or 3 years so I thought it time I have a bit of a look at it. I noticed last night that the media have really picked up on it now.
One thing I will correct though, is that as far as h&a goes, what I thought, and what the media were telling everyone last night was incorrect.
In 2014, there was a bye and a split round. The Cats won the game after the split round. It's still not pretty reading though.
In the period 2011 until now, here is every other club's record coming off a bye.
Hawthorn 7/1
West Coast Eagles 6/3
Adelaide 5/3
Fremantle 5/3
St Kilda 4/5
Brisbane 3/6
Carlton 3/6
Collingwood 3/5
Essendon 3/5
Melbourne 3/6
North Melbourne 3/5
Port Adelaide 3/6
Richmond 3/5
Sydney 3/6
Western Bulldogs 3/6
Geelong 2/7
Gold Coast 1/8
GWS 0/6
Here are Geelong specific games with a little extra detail.
2011 v North @ Kardinia round 7, we were 2nd undefeated at that stage, North were 4th from the bottom with one win. Geelong 19.13 127 d North 9.7 61.
North played the week before and beat Port Adelaide by 10 goals.
Follow that game up by inflicted Collingwood’s first loss of the season by 3 points.
2011 v Sydney @ Kardinia round 23, we were 2nd, 7 1/2 wins clear of Sydney who were 7th. Geelong 12.14 86 lost to Sydney 15.9 99. Scores were close all game.
Sydney played the week before and beat St Kilda by 15 points. They had 15 more scoring shots.
Followed up the loss by beating the Pies by 96 points.
Then had a 31 point QF win over the Hawks, had a week off and easily accounted for a cooked WCE in the PF. Very strong GF win the following week.
At the end of the h&a :
North finished 10th with 10 wins and a percentage of 101.2%.
Sydney finished 7th with 12 wins and a draw and a percentage of 109.3%. They lost in a semi-final to Hawthorn by 36 points.
Geelong finished 2nd with 19 wins and a percentage of 157.4%. Premiers.
2012 v Sydney @ SCG round 13, we were 7th, they were 4th, 1 game ahead with a much superior percentage. Sydney 12.8 80 d Geelong 11.8 74. Sydney 7.0 to Geelong 1.1 in the first quarter.
Sydney had the bye the same week as Geelong.
Followed up the loss with 38 point win over Port Adelaide at Kardinia.
In the final round of the h&a, Geelong beat Sydney by 34 points at the Cattery. It dropped the Swans from 2nd to 3rd on the ladder and meant that they had to travel to Adelaide in the first week of finals. Sydney lost 3 of their last 4 h&a matches, they also had losses to Hawthorn and Collingwood.
At the end of the h&a :
Sydney finished 3rd with 16 wins and a percentage of 140.6%
Geelong finished 6th with 15 wins and a percentage of 117.1%.
Sydney would go on to be premiers, Geelong were bundled out by Freo in the first week at the MCG.
2013 v Brisbane @ GABBA round 13, we were 2nd with 10 wins, they were 4th last with 3 wins. Brisbane 15.13 103 d Geelong 14.14 98. McGrath's 200th. Geelong pretty comfortably in front all day. Brisbane kick 8.5 to 1.4 in the last with McGrath kicking the winner.
Brisbane played the week before and lost to Freo by 40 points @ Subiaco.
Followed up the loss with a 41 point win over Freo @ Kardinia.
At the end of the h&a :
Brisbane finished 12th with 10 wins and a percentage of 89.6%.
Geelong finished 2nd with 18 wins and a percentage of 135.6%
Played Freo at Kardinia first week of finals and lost. Beat Port the following week at the MCG and then lost PF to eventual premiers Hawthorn by 5 points.
2014 v Fremantle @ Subiaco round 9, we were 3rd with 6 wins, Freo were 8th with 4 wins. Fremantle 13.18 96 d Geelong 9.10 64. (I was in a sports bar in Bali full of Freo supporters, I left at 1/4 time, campaigners) Freo kicked 5.3 to 0.3 in the first quarter.
Freo played the week before, losing to Port in Adelaide by 18 pts.
Followed up the loss with a 20 point win over North at Docklands.
2014 v North @ Docklands round 19, we were 3rd with 13 wins, North were 6th with 10 wins. Geelong 16.15 111 d North 10.19 79. This is a win for the Cats, don't know why I haven't picked it up before. We played round 18 that year on 19 Jul v GWS and played round 19 on 02 Aug. That's a 14 day break. Geelong pretty comfortable after a close first quarter.
Was a split round.
North played the same weekend as Geelong in the first half of the split round. They lost to Carlton by 23 points at Docklands.
Both sides had a week off.
Followed up that game with a 2pt win over Freo at Kardinia. It was a battle for 3rd spot on the ladder. Freo had a much superior percentage.
At the end of the h&a :
Fremantle finished 4th with 16 wins and a percentage of 130.4%.
North finished 6th with 14 wins and a percentage of 117.0%.
Geelong finished 3rd with 17 wins and a percentage of 113.8%.
Geelong and Freo both out in straight sets. North making up the numbers get through to a prelim.
Percentages don’t lie. Geelong were cooked this season and only made top four on reputation with a lot of close wins. The competition was still settling down again after the compromised drafts. Apart from a spirited Port that season, there were really no other up and coming clubs in the 8. (would prove to be a false dawn for Port)
2015 v v Adelaide abandoned. Next week against North, Cats sitting 10th, North 11th. North 18.12 120 d Geelong 11.13 79.
Geelong and North both had the bye in round 13. North came back from the bye and got beaten by 55 points by Gold Coast @ Carrara.
Geelong’s game was abandoned so they had an extra week off. Geelong lost to North. Even first quarter, North kicked 8.3 to 1.5 in the second.
Followed up the loss with an 8 point win over the Dogs @ Kardinia.
At the end of the h&a :
North finished 8th with 13 wins and a percentage of 106.5%.
Geelong finished 10th with 11 wins and a draw and a percentage of 101.1%.
North making up the numbers again, get through to another prelim.
2016 v Sydney @ Kardinia round 16, both teams on 10 wins sitting 2nd and 4th respectively. Geelong 9.6 60 lost to Sydney 15.8 98. No big starts or surges, Sydney just pull out a goal or 2 each quarter.
Both Sydney and WB had the bye in round 14 and played each other up in Sydney in round 15. WB won by 4 points.
Geelong had the round 15 bye.
Followed up the loss with a 17 point win over Freo @ Subiaco.
2016 v Hawthorn @ MCG, Qualifying Final, Geelong 12.13 85 d Hawthorn 12.11 83.
Hawthorn were easily the worst side in the top 4 with a percentage around 25% less than the other 3 top 4 sides. Geelong fell over the line after Smith missed. Close all night.
2016 v Sydney @ MCG, Preliminary Final, Geelong 8.12 60 lost to Sydney 15.7 97.
Sydney played the week before and beat Adelaide by 36 points. Sydney kicked 7.2 to 0.5 in the first quarter.
2017 v WCE @ Subiaco round 13, lost to WCE @ Subiaco. WCE kick 7.9 to 2.3 in the first half.
Both sides had the bye the week before.
In the same period, first up after a 5 or 6 month break before the first round, Geelong have won 5 and lost 2, generally against good opposition and have only had one of those games at Kardinia Park.
2011 d St Kilda by a point @ MCG
2012 lost to Freo by 4pts @ Subiaco
2013 d Hawthorn by 7pts @ MCG
2014 d Adelaide by 38pts @ Kardinia
2015 lost to Hawthorn by 62pts @ MCG
2016 d Hawthorn by 30pts @ MCG
2017 d Freo by 42pts @ Subiaco
It seems they can get up after a long layoff, but not after a week.
Geelong have not once lost the 2nd game after the bye in this period.
I'm with Vdubs on this one, it just seems to kill our momentum. I don't think last night will do any harm to Geelong for the rest of the season.
Yes Geelong have played good opposition in their games after the bye, but Geelong have been one of the better teams for most of that period so you'd think they'd win more than 2 of the h&a games.
Geelong's two wins have both been against North, once at Kardinia and once at Docklands.
The losses have been twice at Kardinia to Sydney and all the rest have been at the SCG, GABBA and Subiaco.
IMHO, for Geelong to be a chance in September. They either need to finish top 4 with the double chance and lose the first week or finish 5-8 and hope they get the worst side in the first week.
One thing I will correct though, is that as far as h&a goes, what I thought, and what the media were telling everyone last night was incorrect.
In 2014, there was a bye and a split round. The Cats won the game after the split round. It's still not pretty reading though.
In the period 2011 until now, here is every other club's record coming off a bye.
Hawthorn 7/1
West Coast Eagles 6/3
Adelaide 5/3
Fremantle 5/3
St Kilda 4/5
Brisbane 3/6
Carlton 3/6
Collingwood 3/5
Essendon 3/5
Melbourne 3/6
North Melbourne 3/5
Port Adelaide 3/6
Richmond 3/5
Sydney 3/6
Western Bulldogs 3/6
Geelong 2/7
Gold Coast 1/8
GWS 0/6
Here are Geelong specific games with a little extra detail.
2011 v North @ Kardinia round 7, we were 2nd undefeated at that stage, North were 4th from the bottom with one win. Geelong 19.13 127 d North 9.7 61.
North played the week before and beat Port Adelaide by 10 goals.
Follow that game up by inflicted Collingwood’s first loss of the season by 3 points.
2011 v Sydney @ Kardinia round 23, we were 2nd, 7 1/2 wins clear of Sydney who were 7th. Geelong 12.14 86 lost to Sydney 15.9 99. Scores were close all game.
Sydney played the week before and beat St Kilda by 15 points. They had 15 more scoring shots.
Followed up the loss by beating the Pies by 96 points.
Then had a 31 point QF win over the Hawks, had a week off and easily accounted for a cooked WCE in the PF. Very strong GF win the following week.
At the end of the h&a :
North finished 10th with 10 wins and a percentage of 101.2%.
Sydney finished 7th with 12 wins and a draw and a percentage of 109.3%. They lost in a semi-final to Hawthorn by 36 points.
Geelong finished 2nd with 19 wins and a percentage of 157.4%. Premiers.
2012 v Sydney @ SCG round 13, we were 7th, they were 4th, 1 game ahead with a much superior percentage. Sydney 12.8 80 d Geelong 11.8 74. Sydney 7.0 to Geelong 1.1 in the first quarter.
Sydney had the bye the same week as Geelong.
Followed up the loss with 38 point win over Port Adelaide at Kardinia.
In the final round of the h&a, Geelong beat Sydney by 34 points at the Cattery. It dropped the Swans from 2nd to 3rd on the ladder and meant that they had to travel to Adelaide in the first week of finals. Sydney lost 3 of their last 4 h&a matches, they also had losses to Hawthorn and Collingwood.
At the end of the h&a :
Sydney finished 3rd with 16 wins and a percentage of 140.6%
Geelong finished 6th with 15 wins and a percentage of 117.1%.
Sydney would go on to be premiers, Geelong were bundled out by Freo in the first week at the MCG.
2013 v Brisbane @ GABBA round 13, we were 2nd with 10 wins, they were 4th last with 3 wins. Brisbane 15.13 103 d Geelong 14.14 98. McGrath's 200th. Geelong pretty comfortably in front all day. Brisbane kick 8.5 to 1.4 in the last with McGrath kicking the winner.
Brisbane played the week before and lost to Freo by 40 points @ Subiaco.
Followed up the loss with a 41 point win over Freo @ Kardinia.
At the end of the h&a :
Brisbane finished 12th with 10 wins and a percentage of 89.6%.
Geelong finished 2nd with 18 wins and a percentage of 135.6%
Played Freo at Kardinia first week of finals and lost. Beat Port the following week at the MCG and then lost PF to eventual premiers Hawthorn by 5 points.
2014 v Fremantle @ Subiaco round 9, we were 3rd with 6 wins, Freo were 8th with 4 wins. Fremantle 13.18 96 d Geelong 9.10 64. (I was in a sports bar in Bali full of Freo supporters, I left at 1/4 time, campaigners) Freo kicked 5.3 to 0.3 in the first quarter.
Freo played the week before, losing to Port in Adelaide by 18 pts.
Followed up the loss with a 20 point win over North at Docklands.
2014 v North @ Docklands round 19, we were 3rd with 13 wins, North were 6th with 10 wins. Geelong 16.15 111 d North 10.19 79. This is a win for the Cats, don't know why I haven't picked it up before. We played round 18 that year on 19 Jul v GWS and played round 19 on 02 Aug. That's a 14 day break. Geelong pretty comfortable after a close first quarter.
Was a split round.
North played the same weekend as Geelong in the first half of the split round. They lost to Carlton by 23 points at Docklands.
Both sides had a week off.
Followed up that game with a 2pt win over Freo at Kardinia. It was a battle for 3rd spot on the ladder. Freo had a much superior percentage.
At the end of the h&a :
Fremantle finished 4th with 16 wins and a percentage of 130.4%.
North finished 6th with 14 wins and a percentage of 117.0%.
Geelong finished 3rd with 17 wins and a percentage of 113.8%.
Geelong and Freo both out in straight sets. North making up the numbers get through to a prelim.
Percentages don’t lie. Geelong were cooked this season and only made top four on reputation with a lot of close wins. The competition was still settling down again after the compromised drafts. Apart from a spirited Port that season, there were really no other up and coming clubs in the 8. (would prove to be a false dawn for Port)
2015 v v Adelaide abandoned. Next week against North, Cats sitting 10th, North 11th. North 18.12 120 d Geelong 11.13 79.
Geelong and North both had the bye in round 13. North came back from the bye and got beaten by 55 points by Gold Coast @ Carrara.
Geelong’s game was abandoned so they had an extra week off. Geelong lost to North. Even first quarter, North kicked 8.3 to 1.5 in the second.
Followed up the loss with an 8 point win over the Dogs @ Kardinia.
At the end of the h&a :
North finished 8th with 13 wins and a percentage of 106.5%.
Geelong finished 10th with 11 wins and a draw and a percentage of 101.1%.
North making up the numbers again, get through to another prelim.
2016 v Sydney @ Kardinia round 16, both teams on 10 wins sitting 2nd and 4th respectively. Geelong 9.6 60 lost to Sydney 15.8 98. No big starts or surges, Sydney just pull out a goal or 2 each quarter.
Both Sydney and WB had the bye in round 14 and played each other up in Sydney in round 15. WB won by 4 points.
Geelong had the round 15 bye.
Followed up the loss with a 17 point win over Freo @ Subiaco.
2016 v Hawthorn @ MCG, Qualifying Final, Geelong 12.13 85 d Hawthorn 12.11 83.
Hawthorn were easily the worst side in the top 4 with a percentage around 25% less than the other 3 top 4 sides. Geelong fell over the line after Smith missed. Close all night.
2016 v Sydney @ MCG, Preliminary Final, Geelong 8.12 60 lost to Sydney 15.7 97.
Sydney played the week before and beat Adelaide by 36 points. Sydney kicked 7.2 to 0.5 in the first quarter.
2017 v WCE @ Subiaco round 13, lost to WCE @ Subiaco. WCE kick 7.9 to 2.3 in the first half.
Both sides had the bye the week before.
In the same period, first up after a 5 or 6 month break before the first round, Geelong have won 5 and lost 2, generally against good opposition and have only had one of those games at Kardinia Park.
2011 d St Kilda by a point @ MCG
2012 lost to Freo by 4pts @ Subiaco
2013 d Hawthorn by 7pts @ MCG
2014 d Adelaide by 38pts @ Kardinia
2015 lost to Hawthorn by 62pts @ MCG
2016 d Hawthorn by 30pts @ MCG
2017 d Freo by 42pts @ Subiaco
It seems they can get up after a long layoff, but not after a week.
Geelong have not once lost the 2nd game after the bye in this period.
I'm with Vdubs on this one, it just seems to kill our momentum. I don't think last night will do any harm to Geelong for the rest of the season.
Yes Geelong have played good opposition in their games after the bye, but Geelong have been one of the better teams for most of that period so you'd think they'd win more than 2 of the h&a games.
Geelong's two wins have both been against North, once at Kardinia and once at Docklands.
The losses have been twice at Kardinia to Sydney and all the rest have been at the SCG, GABBA and Subiaco.
IMHO, for Geelong to be a chance in September. They either need to finish top 4 with the double chance and lose the first week or finish 5-8 and hope they get the worst side in the first week.
