Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Blue__Balls]

I don't understand how anyone is confident of getting Kelly. Sure we may have more assets to trade than North but I doubt we are willing to offer him 9 million over 9 years so surely they are in the box seat.

9 years is a long time to lock yourself in to a workplace, especially given that work-place appears to be sliding backwards compared to their competitors.

Kelly knows that, unless he cops a career-ending injury, he'll be playing footy for the next 10 years. Better to get a foot in the door with a club he'll be happy at, than to sign the best years of his career away to a club without a plan. We'll probably be prepared to offer $900k for 4-5 years anyway, and depending on how he goes he'd actually have the potential to increase that for his next contract. So he gets a better environment, similar money, plus the flexibility of being able to reassess in 5 years time (up the salary, or move clubs if we bomb out).

 

[bludrew79]

Any player is doing themselve an injustice signing a deal longer than 4 years right now... the economics isnt right.

Plus just have a look how Bec Judd keeps pulling in the massive TV deals hosting postcards...
Its not all about the 'x' amount of years you play

 

[HARKER]

Just re-hashing the same old here, but when something makes sense, it's hard to turn against it until you know that things have changed.

Are we interested in Kelly & Hopper? It's exactly what we need, so let's start with that.
Are we going to match 'rich' offers for Casboult? SOS says no.
Are we keen on a KPF? Of course, but why settle for second/third etc. best? Do your planning right to capture the missing puzzle piece.
Are we going to let Gibbs go? We may, but I don't see Adelaide admitting they were wrong. Reckon we may go back to the same table for the same result.
Would we manipulate a situation to let our captain go? If the fit is right for all concerned, I can see it coming about.
Given out interest in Kelly and Hopper, would we let go of this years first or off-load next years? I think we keep this years and put a year into the 'known' player, sooner than worry about something we're not sure about; The player, our ladder position, cost of Ben Silvagni etc.
We know we have to spend money we've been saving, so why not start the spend and keep the extra 20% for next year?

2017:
Kelly & Hopper. We lose next years first, Casboult compo, Marc Murphy (many reasons given for this already), a salary dump and maybe a little more.
We keep this years first. Say a pick #4 and work with our later picks as we won't have a second rounder. Our third for maybe a fringe player (Sicily)
Gibbs remains and has another 5 years in him.

2018:
We've done the homework and gain Tom Lynch via FA.
We have two F/S's incoming, in Ben Silvagni & Wil Hickmott.
The new era begins as captaincy & sole vice-captaincy goes to Docherty & Cripps.

2019 comes around and we've effectively lost Murphy & Casboult, whilst gaining Kelly, Hopper, Tom Lynch, Ben Silvagni, Wil Hickmott and 2017 1st rounder.
I'd say that may be a rebuild worth waiting for and it is possible.

 

[katmanblue]

Anthony Bennett, Derek Rose, Andrew Bargnani, Andrew Bogut, Dwight Howard are all recent #1 picks who have been traded in the past 10 years, also have Greg Ogden who was waived by the Blazers and now Blake Griffen who has walked on the Clippers.

Yeah Oden had knees of glass. Poor bloke. The #2 pick that year just won a ring.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[katmanblue]

This guy still wasting away in the VFL......

while ruckman Braydon Preuss (63 hit-outs, 18 possessions) was equally impressive.

Yes, they'd rather get rid of Goldy, but when will that happen and can Preuss wait that long??

Did you watch him play against our 2s a couple of weeks ago? I thought he was pretty poor around the ground. Very raw. Just a big brute.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Vamos Juddamente]

Just re-hashing the same old here, but when something makes sense, it's hard to turn against it until you know that things have changed.

Are we interested in Kelly & Hopper? It's exactly what we need, so let's start with that.
Are we going to match 'rich' offers for Casboult? SOS says no.
Are we keen on a KPF? Of course, but why settle for second/third etc. best? Do your planning right to capture the missing puzzle piece.
Are we going to let Gibbs go? We may, but I don't see Adelaide admitting they were wrong. Reckon we may go back to the same table for the same result.
Would we manipulate a situation to let our captain go? If the fit is right for all concerned, I can see it coming about.
Given out interest in Kelly and Hopper, would we let go of this years first or off-load next years? I think we keep this years and put a year into the 'known' player, sooner than worry about something we're not sure about; The player, our ladder position, cost of Ben Silvagni etc.
We know we have to spend money we've been saving, so why not start the spend and keep the extra 20% for next year?

2017:
Kelly & Hopper. We lose next years first, Casboult compo, Marc Murphy (many reasons given for this already), a salary dump and maybe a little more.
We keep this years first. Say a pick #4 and work with our later picks as we won't have a second rounder. Our third for maybe a fringe player (Sicily)
Gibbs remains and has another 5 years in him.

2018:
We've done the homework and gain Tom Lynch via FA.
We have two F/S's incoming, in Ben Silvagni & Wil Hickmott.
The new era begins as captaincy & sole vice-captaincy goes to Docherty & Cripps.

2019 comes around and we've effectively lost Murphy & Casboult, whilst gaining Kelly, Hopper, Tom Lynch, Ben Silvagni, Wil Hickmott and 2017 1st rounder.
I'd say that may be a rebuild worth waiting for and it is possible.

We will have to give our first pick this year and something else significant just to get Kelly let alone Hopper. No way GWS would accept next years pick in my opinion. Can't see anyone giving much for Murphy so better to keep him.

 

[HARKER]

We will have to give our first pick this year and something else significant just to get Kelly let alone Hopper. No way GWS would accept next years pick in my opinion. Can't see anyone giving much for Murphy so better to keep him.

Of course, we'll see.
Many ways to skin a cat and keeping this years first will be important.

 

[AB_Blue]

I think GWS would jump at a 2-5 pick this year considering they don't have one in the first round......it may just be the deal maker

 

[Pafloyul]

Just re-hashing the same old here, but when something makes sense, it's hard to turn against it until you know that things have changed.

Are we interested in Kelly & Hopper? It's exactly what we need, so let's start with that.
Are we going to match 'rich' offers for Casboult? SOS says no.
Are we keen on a KPF? Of course, but why settle for second/third etc. best? Do your planning right to capture the missing puzzle piece.
Are we going to let Gibbs go? We may, but I don't see Adelaide admitting they were wrong. Reckon we may go back to the same table for the same result.
Would we manipulate a situation to let our captain go? If the fit is right for all concerned, I can see it coming about.
Given out interest in Kelly and Hopper, would we let go of this years first or off-load next years? I think we keep this years and put a year into the 'known' player, sooner than worry about something we're not sure about; The player, our ladder position, cost of Ben Silvagni etc.
We know we have to spend money we've been saving, so why not start the spend and keep the extra 20% for next year?

2017:
Kelly & Hopper. We lose next years first, Casboult compo, Marc Murphy (many reasons given for this already), a salary dump and maybe a little more.
We keep this years first. Say a pick #4 and work with our later picks as we won't have a second rounder. Our third for maybe a fringe player (Sicily)
Gibbs remains and has another 5 years in him.

2018:
We've done the homework and gain Tom Lynch via FA.
We have two F/S's incoming, in Ben Silvagni & Wil Hickmott.
The new era begins as captaincy & sole vice-captaincy goes to Docherty & Cripps.

2019 comes around and we've effectively lost Murphy & Casboult, whilst gaining Kelly, Hopper, Tom Lynch, Ben Silvagni, Wil Hickmott and 2017 1st rounder.
I'd say that may be a rebuild worth waiting for and it is possible.

The only problem with that we don't know Lynch would want to come to us. Rather give up this year's first and try to have a double dip for KPFs next year (Ben and our first rounder).

 

[Azul]

The only problem with that we don't know Lynch would want to come to us. Rather give up this year's first and try to have a double dip for KPFs next year (Ben and our first rounder).

Can't we work with the available talent? McKay and Kerr haven't even debuted yet.

 

[joop]

Parden the intrusion. But has anyone heard of a rumour of Charlie Cameron being shopped to the blues?

 

[HARKER]

The only problem with that we don't know Lynch would want to come to us. Rather give up this year's first and try to have a double dip for KPFs next year (Ben and our first rounder).

Just seems to me to have been the obvious target and as far back as 18 months ago.

All ones efforts may come to naught, but things tell me that this is where we're heading.

 

[HARKER]

Parden the intrusion. But has anyone heard of a rumour of Charlie Cameron being shopped to the blues?

Pardon? Yes...........but probably a no and not for Gibbs alone.

 

[Pafloyul]

Pardon? Yes...........but probably a no and not for Gibbs alone.

I'd be wanting picks, picks and more picks if Gibbs were to leave. It would make getting the GWS players easier, if that were to happen. It just sounds like such a detour for Cameron to be the biggest part of that swap.

 

[Jeremias]

I don't think we'll see Charlie Cameron in navy, but it's not implausible that he heads to Brisbane and the pick the Crows receive for him is on-traded as part of a package for Gibbs.

 

[ferrisb]

The only problem with that we don't know Lynch would want to come to us. Rather give up this year's first and try to have a double dip for KPFs next year (Ben and our first rounder).

I think that's HARKER's point.... We are unlikely to get Lynch, but if we do, it will be known a long way out. Giant FA moves like that don't just happen at the last minute, it's something that you start working on maybe 2 years in advance. Things change, but you assume there'd be an in-principle agreement for a move like that.

The rest of Harker's strategies are like that too. Think big and make it happen. Elite players that would be expensive. But they are all 'major pieces of the puzzle'. And once you have one locked in place, you can move onto the next piece. Importantly, by recruiting a group of key pieces, they would collectively make a huge difference to our side.

Basically recruit Lynch, Kelly, Hopper and pick #4 and guarantee yourself 3-4 elite players. Otherwise you are chasing 6-8 draftees/value trades and hope 3-4 turn out well.

Chasing stars could be seen as make-or-break. But if they are proven players and young enough, then it's not like it's a one-shot deal like North with Dal Santo/Waite etc. Or all eggs-in-one basket ala Ablett/Judd.

It's ballsy, but it might just work.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Just re-hashing the same old here, but when something makes sense, it's hard to turn against it until you know that things have changed.

Are we interested in Kelly & Hopper? It's exactly what we need, so let's start with that.
Are we going to match 'rich' offers for Casboult? SOS says no.
Are we keen on a KPF? Of course, but why settle for second/third etc. best? Do your planning right to capture the missing puzzle piece.
Are we going to let Gibbs go? We may, but I don't see Adelaide admitting they were wrong. Reckon we may go back to the same table for the same result.
Would we manipulate a situation to let our captain go? If the fit is right for all concerned, I can see it coming about.
Given out interest in Kelly and Hopper, would we let go of this years first or off-load next years? I think we keep this years and put a year into the 'known' player, sooner than worry about something we're not sure about; The player, our ladder position, cost of Ben Silvagni etc.
We know we have to spend money we've been saving, so why not start the spend and keep the extra 20% for next year?

2017:
Kelly & Hopper. We lose next years first, Casboult compo, Marc Murphy (many reasons given for this already), a salary dump and maybe a little more.
We keep this years first. Say a pick #4 and work with our later picks as we won't have a second rounder. Our third for maybe a fringe player (Sicily)
Gibbs remains and has another 5 years in him.

2018:
We've done the homework and gain Tom Lynch via FA.
We have two F/S's incoming, in Ben Silvagni & Wil Hickmott.
The new era begins as captaincy & sole vice-captaincy goes to Docherty & Cripps.

2019 comes around and we've effectively lost Murphy & Casboult, whilst gaining Kelly, Hopper, Tom Lynch, Ben Silvagni, Wil Hickmott and 2017 1st rounder.
I'd say that may be a rebuild worth waiting for and it is possible.

Marc Murphy? Did SOS say anything about him or is this just your opinion?

Our 1st this year could be as low as #2 or as high as #7. I think the smart move would be to wait and see before deciding to stick with this year's 1st.
Crows losing McGovern to Eagles seems a good possibility. They'll get around pick #10 for him. They can couple that with #15 for Gibbs with our Casboult compo going back to them as well (band 4 would make it late 30's).

- If our 1st this year is pick #5 for example, I'd be happy to give that + #10 & #15 to GWS for Kelly and Hopper.
- This way we keep our 2018 1st which would probably be around #7 in a stronger draft.
- I'm really liking the idea of keeping our 1st next year because the King brothers will go top 5, which leaves room for us to grab one of the best midfielders from next year's crop.
- We should have plenty of salary space for Lynch
- We grab Ben Silvagni
- 2019 we go after Shiel

To be honest, I'd rather we chase Shiel harder than Lynch but would be ecstatic with both.

POTENTIALLY our 2020 team will have the following additions: Kelly + Hopper + 2018 1st + Shiel + Lynch + B.Silvagni + 2019 1st
with the loss of: Gibbs + Casboult + picks #5 + #10 + #15 (all from 2017 draft)

Murphy will be retired by then and Gibbs near the end of it as well.

 

[Pafloyul]

I think that's HARKER's point.... We are unlikely to get Lynch, but if we do, it will be known a long way out. Giant FA moves like that don't just happen at the last minute, it's something that you start working on maybe 2 years in advance. Things change, but you assume there'd be an in-principle agreement for a move like that.

The rest of Harker's strategies are like that too. Think big and make it happen. Elite players that would be expensive. But they are all 'major pieces of the puzzle'. And once you have one locked in place, you can move onto the next piece. Importantly, by recruiting a group of key pieces, they would collectively make a huge difference to our side.

Basically recruit Lynch, Kelly, Hopper and pick #4 and guarantee yourself 3-4 elite players. Otherwise you are chasing 6-8 draftees/value trades and hope 3-4 turn out well.

Chasing stars could be seen as make-or-break. But if they are proven players and young enough, then it's not like it's a one-shot deal like North with Dal Santo/Waite etc. Or all eggs-in-one basket ala Ablett/Judd.

It's ballsy, but it might just work.

I don't buy it because it's just a bit too slick to be true. I'd still say Gibbs and this year's first will have to be part of the trade if we want both players. I also think next year's draft might have a touch of the Bruce Mcavaneys for those finishing in the bottom half of the ladder, which is still a possibility for us.

 

[HARKER]

I think that's HARKER's point.... We are unlikely to get Lynch, but if we do, it will be known a long way out. Giant FA moves like that don't just happen at the last minute, it's something that you start working on maybe 2 years in advance. Things change, but you assume there'd be an in-principle agreement for a move like that.

The rest of Harker's strategies are like that too. Think big and make it happen. Elite players that would be expensive. But they are all 'major pieces of the puzzle'. And once you have one locked in place, you can move onto the next piece. Importantly, by recruiting a group of key pieces, they would collectively make a huge difference to our side.

Basically recruit Lynch, Kelly, Hopper and pick #4 and guarantee yourself 3-4 elite players. Otherwise you are chasing 6-8 draftees/value trades and hope 3-4 turn out well.

Chasing stars could be seen as make-or-break. But if they are proven players and young enough, then it's not like it's a one-shot deal like North with Dal Santo/Waite etc. Or all eggs-in-one basket ala Ablett/Judd.

It's ballsy, but it might just work.

SOS is a big ticket item who thinks on a big scale allowing us to follow paths that may not have been possible through previous regimes.
Not all his ideas will fall into place, but if you're thinking big, you're planning big and planning early and somehow you get 'luckier' along the way.
Now who knows what can and will come about from here until then, but if all the pieces were made to fall into place and along with good development, we may have something like this to open up the 2019 season:

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Wiiliamson

Kreuzer Hopper Gibbs
Cuningham Cripps Kelly

SPS Weitering CCurnow
Silvagni Lynch Pickett

ECurnow, Fisher, 2017 #3, McKay, Macreadie, Ben Silvagni

Not one plodder there in a 26 man squad and enough tricks for us wanting to go to games for the excitement.

 

[ferrisb]

My 2c re the trade Murphy talk. It's unlikely, but feasible. And possibly beneficial for everyone.

In a world where MS3's 'Murphy isn't going anywhwere' post didn't exist, here are some ponderables.

• Murphy is playing amazing footy, but would have low trade value due to age (and existence of FA)
• GWS don't want to lose Kelly for draft picks. Pick #1 might be fair value for Kelly, but if they did that swap, their team goes backwards next year; swapping their 1st or 2nd (after Shiel) best midfielder for a kid that gets 12-15 touches a game. GWS doesn't care if Murph only has 3-4 years left, they've got Taranto/Setterfield/conga line of emerging mids to take over in a few years.
• We don't want to lose Murphy for picks either, because our midfield is shizen now and would be extra shizen without Murph. So we might want to cash in our older players, but not for picks or unproven kids
• Murphy would only go to a contender a) because he might leave for success b) he might be the final piece, ala Adelaide and Gibbs
• Griffen and Deledio have been fails, but Murphy is playing fantastic this year. Instead of being burnt, it's a case of 'third time lucky'
• GWS has the midfield to let Murph to his thing (which I think is important to getting the most out of him).
• We have cap space, so could pay some of Murph's wage or take a salary dump from GWS, in order to extract maximum trade value
• Plenty of people have said 'it would rip the club apart' or sponsors would leave if we traded the captain. No offense to Murph, but sponsors would be clamouring to get on board if Cripps was captain (although I'd choose Doc)

So yeah, the idea is nuts. And it won't happen. And I haven't taken into account team loyalty, morale or culture. But from a hypothetical, objective perspective, it's not crazy after all.

Maybe its the hail-mary Griffen-Boyd missing ingredient trade, but this time it's for proven talent (Kelly) rather than for a potential gun (Boyd).

 

[HARKER]

Marc Murphy? Did SOS say anything about him or is this just your opinion?

Our 1st this year could be as low as #2 or as high as #7. I think the smart move would be to wait and see before deciding to stick with this year's 1st.
Crows losing McGovern to Eagles seems a good possibility. They'll get around pick #10 for him. They can couple that with #15 for Gibbs with our Casboult compo going back to them as well (band 4 would make it late 30's).

- If our 1st this year is pick #5 for example, I'd be happy to give that + #10 & #15 to GWS for Kelly and Hopper.
- This way we keep our 2018 1st which would probably be around #7 in a stronger draft.
- I'm really liking the idea of keeping our 1st next year because the King brothers will go top 5, which leaves room for us to grab one of the best midfielders from next year's crop.
- We should have plenty of salary space for Lynch
- We grab Ben Silvagni
- 2019 we go after Shiel

To be honest, I'd rather we chase Shiel harder than Lynch but would be ecstatic with both.

POTENTIALLY our 2020 team will have the following additions: Kelly + Hopper + 2018 1st + Shiel + Lynch + B.Silvagni + 2019 1st
with the loss of: Gibbs + Casboult + picks #5 + #10 + #15 (all from 2017 draft)

Murphy will be retired by then and Gibbs near the end of it as well.

Just my opinion because it makes sense.
Don't wish to repeat all the reasons for feeling this way again. They're in the body of this thread somewhere.

 

[Pafloyul]

I think GWS would jump at a 2-5 pick this year considering they don't have one in the first round......it may just be the deal maker

More likely than next year's because they'll probably see us as rising up the ladder that year. I don't quite buy it and I'm thinking pick five or six in next years draft might turn out more valuable to us.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Think you mean McCarthy there. They've also traded out Phillips, but keep in mind how few genuine key talls they have, particularly in defence. It's Davis, Mohr and daylight.

They're hoping that Finlayson and Sproule can put on the size, but right now they're using Corr and Tomlinson even though they're undersized. They've hung onto so many because the ones they have are more running, versatile types, and they want to see if they can turn them into brutes.

That said, this year they will definitely let a couple go, along with Dawson Simpson and Downie.

Downie has give the game away due to depression I believe.

 

[RoyalParade]

Just seems to me to have been the obvious target and as far back as 18 months ago.

All ones efforts may come to naught, but things tell me that this is where we're heading.

Harker, interested to know why you think we have been targeting lynch? Good news if true

 

[DangerousD]

Just re-hashing the same old here, but when something makes sense, it's hard to turn against it until you know that things have changed.

Are we interested in Kelly & Hopper? It's exactly what we need, so let's start with that.
Are we going to match 'rich' offers for Casboult? SOS says no.
Are we keen on a KPF? Of course, but why settle for second/third etc. best? Do your planning right to capture the missing puzzle piece.
Are we going to let Gibbs go? We may, but I don't see Adelaide admitting they were wrong. Reckon we may go back to the same table for the same result.
Would we manipulate a situation to let our captain go? If the fit is right for all concerned, I can see it coming about.
Given out interest in Kelly and Hopper, would we let go of this years first or off-load next years? I think we keep this years and put a year into the 'known' player, sooner than worry about something we're not sure about; The player, our ladder position, cost of Ben Silvagni etc.
We know we have to spend money we've been saving, so why not start the spend and keep the extra 20% for next year?

2017:
Kelly & Hopper. We lose next years first, Casboult compo, Marc Murphy (many reasons given for this already), a salary dump and maybe a little more.
We keep this years first. Say a pick #4 and work with our later picks as we won't have a second rounder. Our third for maybe a fringe player (Sicily)
Gibbs remains and has another 5 years in him.

2018:
We've done the homework and gain Tom Lynch via FA.
We have two F/S's incoming, in Ben Silvagni & Wil Hickmott.
The new era begins as captaincy & sole vice-captaincy goes to Docherty & Cripps.

2019 comes around and we've effectively lost Murphy & Casboult, whilst gaining Kelly, Hopper, Tom Lynch, Ben Silvagni, Wil Hickmott and 2017 1st rounder.
I'd say that may be a rebuild worth waiting for and it is possible.

If we think we are going to get Tom Lynch and Ben Silvagni then where does that leave Mckay? May as well trade him now if we are going to throw $1.1 million plus at a FA KPF.
Agree, hopefully keep Gibbs.
Agree, go after Kelly and Hopper (disagree Murphy will be apart of it)
Agree, Cas will go
Agree with the sole Cap and VC picks but mine are swapped.

With GWS out of the 1st round and having 2 picks in the mid 20's, i see them wanting an early pick this year and next as part of any trades that come about.