Bluemour Discussion Thread IV

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PoultryinMotion

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Looking at the curnow progression in his second year. I can't wait to see what willo, SPS, fisher and polson do in their second. If they all have a similar rise in development we could be in for a very promising future.

I'd love to see polson come in for sumner and play a run with role for the remainder of the year. Rockliff, Selwood, TMitchell, Kennedy (Syd), SMitchell, ZMerrett. This will be a huge learning curve and help his development.
Why would you think a raw kid's football will benefit from half a dozen run- with games?
 

djw1952

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IF... GWS is going to be going hard at Martin, then Kelly and Hopper aren't going to be the only ones shaken loose come the end of the year.

They need to dump players to free up the space in the TPP to get Martin.

I would love it if we managed to get both Kelly and Hopper, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got Kelly and someone like Whitfield instead of Hopper. GWS would love to dump Delidio's contract, but they know that no one is going to touch him.
I hope you are wrong about Hopper because he would be more of a Gibbs replacement (if he goes of course!) with a stronger body in the packs, but you could be right about Whitfield because he wants to come back home as well. He would still be a good get mind you, but is more like Kelly than Hopper......in that he is more of an outside mid.......we sure do need some run from the middle though.
 

djw1952

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Let's look at the top ten teams on the ladder and their 195cm+ goal kicking forwards. This includes players in the current top 30 who didn't make your original list (you stopped at 15). I've also included Jesse Hogan who would be listed here if not for his health issues.

Adelaide - Jenkins (28y 5 m)
GWS - Cameron (24y 3m) / Patton (24 y 1m)
Geelong - Hawkins (28y 11m)
Port Adelaide - Dixon (26y 9m)
Melbourne - Hogan (22y 5m)
Richmond - Riewoldt (28y 8m)
St. Kilda - Bruce (25y 1m)
Sydney - Franklin (30y 5m)
Essendon - Daniher (23y 4m), Hooker (28y 9m)
West Coast - Kennedy (29y 10m)

What do I notice here? Only GWS and Essendon have more than one such player (leading goal kicker of 195cm+).

I look at the players ages. Most of these players are in their mid-to-late 20s. The exceptional young ones that stand out are Hogan (considered a generational talent), Daniher (similarly rated).

Of the twelve players who made the list (top 10 team (e.g. likelihood of finals in 2017) and top 30 goal scorers) only two of them have ever won a premiership medal. These two players are Buddy Franklin and Tom Hawkins. Both were members of dynasty teams (Hawthorn and Geelong repsectively). Both times Franklin was a goal scoring prodigy. In neither of the two years that Geelong won a premiership with Hawkins did he go close to scoring 2 goals a game (e.g. the average number of goals you've set your cut off at).

SO we can say except for the rarest of cases (Buddy Franklin) that most of these big bodied 195cm+ goal scorers need until their mid-twenties to develop AND that except in the rarest of cases teams only feature one of these types of forwards. Until evidence to the contrary neither of those teams has yet to win a premiership (GWS or Essendon with Daniher + Hooker).

Unless you have no confidence in Harry McKay then we've already got one of these players in development who was drafted in the top 10 of his draft class. If Weitering plays forward rather than back that makes two. If Charlie Curnow has grown even 1cm then that's 3. If Patrick Kerr has done the same then that's 4. Add in Ben Silvagni after next year and you have 5.

If you draft another you're likely waiting a further 4 or 5 years before they hit the point in their development where they're hopefully good enough to make this list.

At some point you need to realize that this type of recruiting strategy via the draft does not work. You become a Richmond. Griffiths, Elton, Vickery, Astbury even started as a swingman (5 goals his first year), Tom Derickx, Liam McBean, and more. Just to try and give Jack a second tall to work with.

Unless you get super lucky and draft a generational talent at or near the top of the draft or father-son rule which most of these players are you're best off recruiting one of them via trade or free agency (Jenkins, Kennedy, Bruce).

Ultimately, what this tells me is that we better get ready to buckle up and pay for Tom Lynch next year. Otherwise, we've already got the 195cm+ KPF on our list already (or in our sights). I think we do and his name is Harry (or Charlie) and if not then it's got to be Ben.
A lot of "IFS" in there as Weitering plays better down back, Harry has not kicked a ball in anger in the seniors yet. Kerr is more hope than anything and poor BENSOS has so much pressure on his shoulders to lift the club even before he is drafted!!! I agree Charlie looks the goods, but Carlton do not kick enough goals and if Levi buggers off then we will need more than Charlie and BENSOS next year. I don`t know if Weitering has been carrying an injury all season, but he has not been the player he was in his first year that`s for sure!!!
 

djw1952

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It's an educated thought. I'm fearful of the Saints and what they are preparing to offer also.
Maybe........but as SOS has agreed to take salary dump players before to land his targets I don`t know that the picks GWS are offered (as in 1 or 2 first rounders) will be the major issue, but more of playing the game with them about add ons and how we can help them to clear their books of certain players..........I thought that you were the one who said that it would not take 2 first rounders to complete the deal...........???
 
You mean clearly the best young mid in the comp isn't the right player to chase?


I think he means its way more achievable and likely ........ which I agree with.
 

TD2010

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I was quite surprised when watching OTC and he said that. Makes me think the club must have really low balled him.
SOS is ruthless, he wanted that pick and Zac had currency. As a player I'd be hurt by that too, and that's Zac's passion talking which is great. But that's the business side.

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Should just go pick 3 for Hopper and Whitfield.

I love Kelly but don't think he is a "money ball" selection.

I like it. Inside mid and outside mid for around the same combined salary and trade collateral as getting Kelly by himself.

Keep Gibbs, keep Casboult.

Plowman, Jones, Weitering
Docherty, Marchbank, Byrne
Whitfield, Cripps, Williamson
Kreuzer, Hopper, Gibbs
Cuningham, C. Curnow, Murphy
Silvagni, Casboult, Wright
I/C: E. Curnow, SPS, Fisher, Lamb

Pushing for selection: Macreadie, Kerr, McKay, Pickett, Polson

Senior Depth/VFL leadership: Simmo, ASOS, Thomas, Kerridge, Graham, Phillips etc.
 
Aug 22, 2014
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SOS is ruthless, he wanted that pick and Zac had currency. As a player I'd be hurt by that too, and that's Zac's passion talking which is great. But that's the business side.

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Yep. Players want more freedom to move where and when they want. Not surprising that clubs will find ways of manipulating situations to maximise their return when it suits them.
 

Weiterbot23

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You mean clearly the best young mid in the comp isn't the right player to chase?

You haven't watched money ball have you?


Just saying who ever gets Kelly is gunna be paying a Kings ransom.

Maybe there's some cheaper options that we can get for understand.


Kelly may be a 9/10 player but why pay more than what we could get 2 8/10 players for.



Buy low
 

rp84

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You haven't watched money ball have you?


Just saying who ever gets Kelly is gunna be paying a Kings ransom.

Maybe there's some cheaper options that we can get for understand.


Kelly may be a 9/10 player but why pay more than what we could get 2 8/10 players for.



Buy low

I have seen it. The questions: is hopper an 8/10 player? Is Whitfield an 8/10 player in a much poorer team?

Kelly is a 10/10 bona fide superstar.

Sometimes trying to be too clever backfires.
 

Moe B

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I have seen it. The questions: is hopper an 8/10 player? Is Whitfield an 8/10 player in a much poorer team?

Kelly is a 10/10 bona fide superstar.

Sometimes trying to be too clever backfires.
I agree, Hopper has the potential but not there yet, Whitfield I actually don't rate very highly... We need Kelly. Speaking of needs Tommy Lynch would be 1st on my list though!
 
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