Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Blue__Balls]

I agree with your list but can you give some opinions on how we replace these guys?

Currently we have picks: 3-38-56-74-92

Now i can see us being able to draft a good player at 3 and 38 but with all the talk of weak drafts i am not confident beyond that. The list you have is long and even with picks coming in for Gibbs and Cas i don't see how we can cut that deep.

It was a long post, so totally understand if you skimmed it, but I did outline the replacement strategy we'd need to make it work.

Gibbs for two picks, Casboult for one. Add those three to our first, third and fourth round picks is 6 draftees in the ND. 3x regular rookies, 1x Cat B rookie. Add in a delisted free agent or token late pick trade. That's 11.

 

[DangerousD]

3 & 21 probably gets us Kelly if he nominates us. The trick there is getting something else thrown our way, otherwise we're giving up two of our more valuable resources for a single player. Using those two picks just on Kelly potentially means we're forced to keep someone like Buckley, or take an extra player in the draft at Pick 75.

Thats if you are assessing the trade on its own. You have us getting two 1st round picks for Gibbs but are baulking at offering Kelly the same. If we came out of this years trade period with Josh Kelly, 2x1st round picks and our 3rd round then we have done a great job. Our 4th round pick could be used to get someone like Balic.

 

[CRIPPA9]

If we can turn our first (#3), Gibbs (#15+#50) and Cas Compo (#21) into Kelly, Hopper and Balic, whilst picking up a short-term DFA or cheap Mature key forward (E.g. Tippett), it's a no brainer for me. Get it done.

 

[DangerousD]

It was a long post, so totally understand if you skimmed it, but I did outline the replacement strategy we'd need to make it work.

Gibbs for two picks, Casboult for one. Add those three to our first, third and fourth round picks is 6 draftees in the ND. 3x regular rookies, 1x Cat B rookie. Add in a delisted free agent or token late pick trade. That's 11.

I am worried though that if the draft is crap our 4th pick is no guarantee to be better than who he replaces, but lets say he is, then the 3 rookies and cat B are even further behind in the pecking order. Agree that a DFA will come in, just not confident in picking up guys better than Graham, Boek, Kerridge in the rookie draft.

 

[DangerousD]

Thought i would bring up Toby Greene.

They have been talking on SEN today saying the Giants should trade him due to is ill disciplined actions blah blah blah.

What are peoples thoughts on him as a player? I think he is a star and would be perfect for us, could he be the salary dump that allows them to keep Kelly? I read that he is on a very good contract.

There could be a lot of factors why he has issues and i wonder if being at a bigger club in Melbourne would suit him.

Would still cost a 1st round pick but not multiple picks like Kelly.

 

[Azul]

Well I don't mind a little informal dialogue between the club and the AFL about the topic, but I'd prefer priority picks get given out to clubs only when they are in strife.

Strife? We're on the right track but heaven forbid if we were doing badly.

Assuming the cats, b*mbers, eagles, hawks and bloods roll us then Bolton will have lost 32 out of 44 games since he took over as coach. If that's not grounds for a second round pick after we won the spoon under Barker, what is?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Thats if you are assessing the trade on its own. You have us getting two 1st round picks for Gibbs but are baulking at offering Kelly the same. If we came out of this years trade period with Josh Kelly, 2x1st round picks and our 3rd round then we have done a great job. Our 4th round pick could be used to get someone like Balic.

I'm looking at it purely from a list turnover perspective.

If we want to replace 11 players, then we need to get multiple picks for Gibbs and find a delisted free agent who can contribute.

Existing recruitment resources:
Picks 3, 39 and 57 in the National Draft.
Picks 3, 21 and 39 in the Rookie Draft.
1x Cat B Rookie (if Korchek goes).
Free Agency (assume 1x DFA).

That's 8 players we bring in, some of whom are going to be veeeeery speculative.
Casboult out is one-for-one, lose a player and gain a pick.
Gibbs for two picks means one more player to delist.
Kelly for two picks means one less player to delist.

Losing Gibbs and gaining Kelly, if that can be done in isolation, is a very good result. Can't see us getting Kelly without using Pick 3 though.

Kelly, Pick 15 + Pick 75
vs.
Pick 3, Pick 15 + Pick 17

There's a discussion to be had there.

 

[Wickzki]

I have to imagine that the last player that the Carlton Football Club and Steven Trigg would willingly pick up is Kurt Tippett.

I have no problem with Kurt as a player or an individual, in fact he'd offer what I'd like in a Cas-replacement, but I can see that being a PR disaster. It would have to be handled extremely delicately. You'd almost have to get the Swans in on making supportive comments through the media.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I am worried though that if the draft is crap our 4th pick is no guarantee to be better than who he replaces, but lets say he is, then the 3 rookies and cat B are even further behind in the pecking order. Agree that a DFA will come in, just not confident in picking up guys better than Graham, Boek, Kerridge in the rookie draft.

That's my point. If we want to delist a heap of players, we need reasonable quality resources to replace them. 10-11 is about the maximum unless we have a miracle deal being done behind closed doors. Then next year it's another 8 or so, then 6-8 each year thereafter.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Strife? We're on the right track but heaven forbid if we were doing badly.

Assuming the cats, b*mbers, eagles, hawks and bloods roll us then Bolton will have lost 32 out of 44 games since he took over as coach. If that's not grounds for a second round pick after we won the spoon under Barker, what is?

We get higher draft picks for finishing low. Unless we start haemorrhaging players like Brisbane were in the last few years, we don't need or deserve a priority pick.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

Alternatively, I still think Weitering can be a solid CHF. I still have that image of him kicking two goals in a quarter on one leg towards the end of last year. Three pronged forward line?
SOS is developed as a defender or general utility in this scenario.

Marchbank is somebody I would like to trial at chf
I think he can make the play

 

[LordLucifer]

Thought i would bring up Toby Greene.

They have been talking on SEN today saying the Giants should trade him due to is ill disciplined actions blah blah blah.

What are peoples thoughts on him as a player? I think he is a star and would be perfect for us, could he be the salary dump that allows them to keep Kelly? I read that he is on a very good contract.

There could be a lot of factors why he has issues and i wonder if being at a bigger club in Melbourne would suit him.

Would still cost a 1st round pick but not multiple picks like Kelly.

I'd have him in a heartbeat.

 

[DangerousD]

Well I don't mind a little informal dialogue between the club and the AFL about the topic, but I'd prefer priority picks get given out to clubs only when they are in strife. The lions got a little nudge last year and some help in getting a football department together. We are managing well enough on our own, I don't think we need or deserve an extra pick.

On the other hand, we may finish last or second last this season. We then might face the prospect of Gibbs requesting a trade again which will be harder to knock back second time around, we then may lose Cas. A lot of ifs and maybes but if it did play out then we are staring the down the barrel of another bottom 3 finish.

I doubt a PP will come our way but i can see the AFL's secret formula going from a band 4 compo to a band 2.

 

[Doro]

Strife? We're on the right track but heaven forbid if we were doing badly.

Assuming the cats, b*mbers, eagles, hawks and bloods roll us then Bolton will have lost 32 out of 44 games since he took over as coach. If that's not grounds for a second round pick after we won the spoon under Barker, what is?

Plenty of clubs will take several years in a re-build with few wins, I'd prefer priority picks only given out in exceptional circumstances. The Lions were having a lot of issues with player retention, not something we are struggling with re our kids. Brisbane is also struggling with crowds, m/ship and staying relevant in the Qld market, they have needed help. I think all we need is time, unity and a bit more shrewd drafting/list mgmt.

 

[DangerousD]

I'd have him in a heartbeat.

Of course, as would i, do you think his issues will pass or that they're overblown and are you willing to pay the price (trade)

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

Well I don't mind a little informal dialogue between the club and the AFL about the topic, but I'd prefer priority picks get given out to clubs only when they are in strife. The lions got a little nudge last year and some help in getting a football department together. We are managing well enough on our own, I don't think we need or deserve an extra pick.

Why do we deserve priority picks and why would we go to the AFL to ask for them?

What's that say about anything about us?


Actually I find that pathetic to even think about right now! They're not automatic like they used to.
You actually need to go and plead your case!


" Can we had a priority pick please because we're really shit!"

 

[Jeremias]

Thought i would bring up Toby Greene.

They have been talking on SEN today saying the Giants should trade him due to is ill disciplined actions blah blah blah.

What are peoples thoughts on him as a player? I think he is a star and would be perfect for us, could he be the salary dump that allows them to keep Kelly? I read that he is on a very good contract.

There could be a lot of factors why he has issues and i wonder if being at a bigger club in Melbourne would suit him.

Would still cost a 1st round pick but not multiple picks like Kelly.

I find it hard to believe the Giants would put Greene on the table, but if he was available then absolutely we should be going after him. They'd never look to just dump his salary though, despite the indiscretions.

He may be an absolute head case, but he's an absolute star. He was AA last year on the back of a 44 goal season, and he looks likely to better that this season despite already missing 4 games with another 2 week holiday starting this week.

He'd cost plenty.

 

[gandaal]

GWS will trade Toby when hell freezes over.

 

[Doro]

On the other hand, we may finish last or second last this season. We then might face the prospect of Gibbs requesting a trade again which will be harder to knock back second time around, we then may lose Cas. A lot of ifs and maybes but if it did play out then we are staring the down the barrel of another bottom 3 finish.

I doubt a PP will come our way but i can see the AFL's secret formula going from a band 4 compo to a band 2.

Yeah the secret herbs and spices compo formula hasn't been particularly kind to us yet, so that sort of assistance would be more like it.

 

[DangerousD]

That's my point. If we want to delist a heap of players, we need reasonable quality resources to replace them. 10-11 is about the maximum unless we have a miracle deal being done behind closed doors. Then next year it's another 8 or so, then 6-8 each year thereafter.

The main point I'm trying to put through is 10 would be great but i just don't see it happening. I can see how 6-8 works but no more unless we are trading future picks.

 

[therubbernub]

Of course, as would i, do you think his issues will pass or that they're overblown and are you willing to pay the price (trade)

If BB and sos dug round and determined the root cause of his anger issues and then pulled the trigger, i would back BB. Over almost anyone , to get the best out of him.

 

[LordLucifer]

Of course, as would i, do you think his issues will pass or that they're overblown and are you willing to pay the price (trade)

Probably would benefit from playing under a different coach with a much stronger control over him.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Toby Greene is elite af and would be perfect for our team.

 

[AB_Blue]

Graham would be a no brainer

Need VFL depth and also players who can be the 23rd-30th best player on our list

I'd also delist Sumner and Re-rookie him
It might be the wake up he needs to get his body 100%

 

[AB_Blue]

Has Cuningham resigned yet?

No just Gary Pert today.....[emoji3]