Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Now that you have mentioned it, the idea is fixed and growing in my mind. Soon, I will be able to think of nothing else.
Then...the horror...
I'd love for hawthorn to make finals. Since we seem to be fairly likely to score 4th and face Adelaide in Adelaide week 1, a semi final vs Sydney is something I fear. If Hathorn played sydney in week one however, they would be a chance because strange things happen with those two teams. Hawthorn in a semi is something I would be far more open to.
Adelaide are better this season though hopefully no more hiccups!
Dangerfield would be spewing leave the Crows to pursue a flag with Geelong only to miss out!
**Added bonus is Buddy leaving the Hawks to help Sydney win more flags, only to miss out himself
Yep he'd be pissed at only having 2 flags to date with the hawks and 9 million in the bank with Sydney, guess that added bonus is he doesn't have to live in Melbourne
FS, is there a way to chart all Grand Finalist's Squiggle positions at the end of the minor round for every year?2017 Round 21
That's a pretty handy position for Adelaide there, NOT THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR YOU, ADELAIDE FANS. My God, squiggle showed you were a force a year ago and you're still like, "We might still be terrible." You're not terrible. Face it.
The Crows and Swans both beat up on lesser teams this week. Sydney were especially impressive, reaching triple figures before Fremantle had made double figures, which is the kind of defensive performance that should scare you, unless you're Sydney. Of course, it was only Freo. Remember after Round 9 when Fremantle were 5th on the ladder? I was correct to call it the greatest travesty of the 21st century, or whatever I said. The Dockers have been extraordinary at scrounging close wins to mask poor fundamentals over the last couple of years.
The Giants also had a good win over the Bulldogs to add a bit of interest to the top.
Essendon are a great chance of snagging two wins in their final two games, and squiggle thinks that might be enough to tip out the Eagles and Dogs. In particular, it thinks Essendon can boost their percentage by enough to move ahead of West Coast even with the Eagles winning 1 out of 2 (defeating either GWS or Adelaide).
A better picture of the landscape can be seen in the Tower:
That's still a decent chance for Sydney to muscle into the top 4, by beating Adelaide this week and Carlton the next while relying on Richmond to drop a game against Fremantle or St Kilda, or else Geelong or GWS to lose both of theirs. And if the Swans can't, Port Adelaide has a chance to do the same thing.
The top 6 is about 85% certain, though, to be Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Richmond, Sydney, and Port Adelaide.
Brisbane are no longer more likely to finish bottom than any other position! After spending the first half of the year grinding the gears and bunny-hopping in place, the Lions have found the accelerator and started going places been going places. They're no longer even the worst team in the competition.
Also there is now a 3% chance of a Hawthorn finals campaign, courtesy of a couple of convenient results for the Hawks on the weekend. Imagine the Hawks scraping into 8th and taking on Sydney in an Elimination Final. Grips the mind, doesn't it.
On Flagpole, Melbourne and St Kilda move rapidly in opposite directions.
And there's now a fair gap between Sydney and the next tier of challengers.
More squiggles!
Live squiggles!
As an Adelaide sceptic it might help me embrace our current position......maybe.
Checking in
And
And
I'd hate it. The constant talking up of Hawthorn for finishing 9th-13th has been a real head-scratcher. They're a champion club I have mad respect for, but a lot of media personalities/fans just can't seem to let go of Hawthorn being good (at least for a while). Always making excuses for how they can make the eight in increasingly unlikely scenarios. They are no longer a finals-worthy side - time for someone else to have a shot in September.
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
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Adelaide supporters are "once bitten, twice shy" when it comes to finals. Except we've been bitten so many times now that we're running out of fingers to poke the bear (to completely mix metaphors).
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Honestly it's more informative to actually look through years one by one (on live squiggle), because then you can see where the competition was, and who moved where in finals. There isn't a magic "reach here and win the flag" spot. You can only compare to previous years and see what has happened before in similar positions.
Adelaide's current position is no guarantee of a flag. In fact, this time last year, they were in almost the exact same spot. (Ranked behind Sydney, though, and with closer competition from the pack behind.) And there are plenty of examples from recent history where the best-placed team at the end of Home & Away fell short in finals. In fact, it's been the rule more than the exception: it's actually more common for another team to move ahead during the finals campaign. But that's almost always a team that's also around the zone, already in contention.
There are three examples from recent years where a team radically improved after a mediocre H&A season: Bulldogs 2016 (flag); North Melbourne 2015 (prelim); and Port Adelaide 2014 (very close prelim). They all performed a lot better than their regular season form suggested. But beyond those three, you have to go all the way back to Hawthorn 2008 (flag) for another example. And that was mainly remarkable because of how far ahead Geelong were after a 21-1 season, not because the Hawks were ever out of it. (They finished the regular season closer to the zone than GWS is now.)
So historically, you have to at least be close at the start of finals to be a contender. But with three cases in three years, and a major exception last year, this may be a new trend. The pre-finals bye is generally acknowledged to have played into the Bulldogs' hands/paws, as did North Melbourne resting half their squad the year before. Fremantle enjoyed a small but notable finals performance boost for a few years as well, employing the same tactics.
Thus the current break that Adelaide and Sydney enjoy over the rest of the field may not mean as much as it used to. All we can really say is that when the league has looked like this in the past, we wound up with a Grand Final between the two front-runner teams. So you would tip it to happen again, but there are plausible reasons it might not: Adelaide's form might slide (as it did in R22 & R23 last year); GWS or Geelong might get close enough by R23; results may force an Adelaide v Sydney final before the GF; or the pre-finals bye could enable a competitor to radically overperform.
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I'm hopeful that this current Crows group doesn't have the same finals problems as those in the 2000s.
2012: Beaten by a better side who went on to win the flag, then came from behind in a nail biter against Freo, then played absolutely out of our skin but couldn't quite get a win against Hawthorn.
2015: Won a nail biter against a pretty evenly matched team away from home, then got blown out by the premier, after coming off a six day break after what would have had to have been a pretty taxing year.
2016: We were just s**t at the end of the year so I kind of feel like the finals pressure wasn't the reason for that poor first quarter, plus we weren't the only team who Sydney did that to that year.
Like I said I could just be desperately trying to look past previous pains but I have hope, and I think this current group of players, despite their poor current finals record (3-4), most of their losses have been due to just not being good enough, not because they choked.
2012: Beaten by a better side who went on to win the flag, then came from behind in a nail biter against Freo, then played absolutely out of our skin but couldn't quite get a win against Hawthorn.
2015: Won a nail biter against a pretty evenly matched team away from home, then got blown out by the premier, after coming off a six day break after what would have had to have been a pretty taxing year.
2016: We were just s**t at the end of the year so I kind of feel like the finals pressure wasn't the reason for that poor first quarter, plus we weren't the only team who Sydney did that to that year.
Like I said I could just be desperately trying to look past previous pains but I have hope, and I think this current group of players, despite their poor current finals record (3-4), most of their losses have been due to just not being good enough, not because they choked.
If or when you do win a flag, I think you'll find it quite different to what you imagine.
In my experience it's more a cerebrate your win, rather than revel in the other teams' loss.
But maybe you're fuelled by the dark side...
This was a good, measured post Hobbes, until you complained about the stadium that has been hosting top flight football for 80 years!
Complaining about having to play GFC at Kardinia is a sad reflection of modern 'whinge culture.' The only issue is the extreme success of GFC at their home ground in the last decade, and the fact a few teams avoid the ground.
11 games a year there please- just to shut up the whinging.
80 years!
There are matches in Cairns and Darwin and China and New Zealand and Launceston and Hobart, all at smallish or ill equipped stadia. Subiaco is a different shape to the MCG, if I recall. Never heard anyone suggest they shouldn't play there.
TheFourPillars
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Finals football is a whole different ball game. We might have few more defenders back as well. I also wish this dream
Satchel
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As I recall the Hawks beat the unbackable premiership favourites on their own dung hole not so long ago??
Thanks FS, I just thought it could be interesting to see all of the grand finalists over time plotted out at the end of the minor round. Not so much as a way to determine how Adelaide or anyone else would fare or to build my confidence in Adelaide, purely out of wondering what it would look like.
To be honest I'm resigned for whatever happens with Adelaide this year so I'm not really looking for any affirmations. All of last years predictive algorithms, charts and tables and Adelaide's subsequent failure has made me a lot more wary of getting any real hopes up.
Vooligan
Norm Smith Medallist
What's your point?As I recall the Hawks beat the unbackable premiership favourites on their own dung hole not so long ago??
Win some, you lose some. Adelaide also beat the Hawks on their home turf this season too.
We were also thumped by North Melbourne this season too. None of this really matters come finals.
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true & finals are the Crows strong point
Vooligan
Norm Smith Medallist
What's your beef with the Crows?
I'm sure that fact will have a huge effect on what happens in September.As I recall the Hawks beat the unbackable premiership favourites on their own dung hole not so long ago??
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no beef - just the comment about the Hawks not being finals worthy annoyed me (I am aware that it is only a 3% chance of making it
) given we have knocked off Sydney twice & Adelaide in Adelaide
Vooligan
Norm Smith Medallist
no beef - just the comment about the Hawks not being finals worthy annoyed me (I am aware that it is only a 3% chance of making it
In all seriousness though, yes, Hawthorn have had some good games this year. Yes, they have some good youth coming through. But 99% of all AFL fans wouldn't class Hawks as a finals quality side at the moment. Didn't Clarko even admit that himself?
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In all seriousness though, yes, Hawthorn have had some good games this year. Yes, they have some good youth coming through. But 99% of all AFL fans wouldn't class Hawks as a finals quality side at the moment. Didn't Clarko even admit that himself?
Realisitically, our formline after the first month has been more than acceptable for a "finals quality" - 9 wins, 6 losses and a draw, percentage would be over 100. Not top 4, but firmly top 8.
However, that first month was beyond deplorable and is the major reason we won't play finals this year. However, our record over the last 4 months has been "finals worthy".
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Carlton played finals worthy football between rounds 12 and 13. We went 2-0, with a percentage of just over 100%. That stretch of football included a win over gws and an interstate win.
We've been ordinary for much of the rest of the season. But apart from that we're a finals worthy team...
