Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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spinynorman said:
Richmond does some pretty unexpected s**t sometimes?
Click to expand...

Yeah, but it's normally unexpectedly bad, not unexpectedly good.

That said, the Freo win probably bucked that trend. To win by 104 points, after trailing by 4 points at quarter time, is pretty ridiculous. 22.5 to 4.5 after quarter time.
 
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
Yeah, but it's normally unexpectedly bad, not unexpectedly good.

That said, the Freo win probably bucked that trend. To win by 104 points, after trailing by 4 points at quarter time, is pretty ridiculous. 22.5 to 4.5 after quarter time.
Click to expand...
We do sometimes do unexpectedly good things though. Like winning 9 in a row to make finals in 2014, kicking 8 goals by quarter time to smash 9-0 Freo on their home deck in 2015, or having a positive W-L record against Hawthorn 2012-15.
 
2017 Round 22
​
KPEudDX.png


The most exciting thing that happened this round was the stars aligning for North Melbourne to play Brisbane for last place on the ladder. As such, today's commentary will be heavily Spoonbowl-tilted.

SiFrGd9.jpg

Look at those two teams, heading for each other like they knew this day was coming. It's a club on the rise vs a club that rose to half-mast in the first 10 rounds before deciding it was all too hard:

c7I4qVV.jpg

Let's also take a moment to appreciate that these aren't the two worst teams. The worst teams are Fremantle and Gold Coast. A Spoonbowl involving Fremantle and Gold Coast would be genuinely terrible. What Brisbane and North Melbourne offer us, by contrast, is a real chance of a decent game. You know how people are always suggesting insane changes to the finals, like wildcard playoffs between 9th to 12th: Spoonbowl 2017 offers a glimpse into that world, where deeply flawed but not completely inept teams battle for something not really that great but still a lot better than the alternative. That is Spoonbowl 2017.

North Melbourne don't deserve the wooden spoon: For the first half of the season, they were about as good as Melbourne is now, but without winning any games. In the first five rounds, they fell 1 point short of Geelong, 3 points short of the Bulldogs, and got done by 5 points in Perth by the Dockers. In fact, in four games against the Dogs & Dockers this year, North Melbourne have managed to lose the lot by a combined total of 13 points. They have a percentage of 84.8, which is better than four other teams, and not far off Hawthorn (89.8).

Brisbane don't deserve the spoon, either. Their second half of the year has had a clear upward trajectory, which defies the basic concept, which is that spoons are for terrible teams in terrible situations with no future so sit down and have a cry and a spoon. Other teams have tried to mess with this in the past, by "strategically" "moving" their "players" at "key moments" in order to "******* cheat," but Brisbane is the lighter side of that: a side on the rise that's genuinely tried all year.

Remember that neither of these teams care a whole lot about defending, and it will be glorious. It will be a beautiful, amazing game.

Tip: Brisbane 110 - 104 North Melbourne

In other news:

DasqlNy.gif

Richmond finally generated a decent score, albeit against an indecent team. The Tigers are a little flattered by their accuracy in kicking 25.5, and the chart can't adequately capture the way Fremantle players spent the second half jogging half-heartedly around the field like they were thinking about the load of laundry they had to do when they got home and whether they needed to stop off for milk. Still, it was a great performance by the Tigers, and made even clearer their year-long improvement.

We didn't learn a whole lot from Adelaide vs Sydney, other than that it was about as competitive as expected. The Crows shouldn't be too unhappy with that game, which they lost only due to some wayward goalkicking.

qukEjLP.png

Essendon should be unable to utensil up a finals berth from here, since they host the Dockers next week. And the current top 4 and top 8 will more likely remain unchanged. But there's a crazy raft of possible scenarios on offer:

RUh2Mx4.png

Richmond have a big chance of finishing 3rd (if they defeat St Kilda) and 6th (if they don't). They are much less likely to finish 4th or 5th, because Port and Sydney have highly winnable games and will overtake them.

Similary, North Melbourne will probably finish 15th if they win Spoonbowl 2017 and 18th if they don't.

If Melbourne and Essendon don't claim 7th and 8th, the Eagles are most likely to slip in there, but it's still possible in a benevolent universe for the Bulldogs and Saints.

Only the Giants can take top spot from Adelaide, and this scenario requires them to defeat Geelong at Kardinia while the Crows do a repeat of 2016 and drop their final game to West Coast.

The top 6 cannot change; that is, no-one currently lower than 6th can break into it, and none of the top 6 can fall out of it.

Similarly, the block of teams currently 7th to 11th is fixed, with only the order within that block still to be decided.

Here's an animated tower, which shows Carlton's last-minute leap to safety, and the final snuffing of Hawthorn:

2Qrry8p.gif

Flagpole this week is mostly notable for Richmond's little jump and some new clarity around who's likely to play finals:

tQVm2cW.gif


More squiggles!

Live squiggles!
 
Tigers and Bombers competing for the biggest Squiggle movement from their starting point this year (although the Bombers starting spot was an anomaly).
 

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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
Tigers and Bombers competing for the biggest Squiggle movement from their starting point this year (although the Bombers starting spot was an anomaly).
Click to expand...
Richmond have surprised us all.

Now surely, surely in one of those many sliding doors of the Squiggle, Richmond can win a final.
 
Dirty Bird said:
Well

The squiggle treats Geelong as non-Victorian because of their ridiculous home field advantage at kardinia.
Click to expand...


Please come and play all your home matches at Kardinia- the mayor has told me this is fine.

No more ridiculous home ground advantage!
 
Final Siren said:
​
Only the Giants can take top spot from Adelaide, and this scenario requires them to defeat Geelong at Kardinia while the Crows do a repeat of 2016 and drop their final game to West Coast.
Click to expand...

FS, you have some error in your tower of power algorithm. Adelaide cannot finish 3rd. GWS & Cats play each other and everyone else is at least 1.5 games behind them. Yet the ToP has the Crows a chance of finishing 3rd!
 
lamby said:
FS, you have some error in your tower of power algorithm. Adelaide cannot finish 3rd. GWS & Cats play each other and everyone else is at least 1.5 games behind them. Yet the ToP has the Crows a chance of finishing 3rd!
Click to expand...
He has mentioned before that the area for each position is not perpendicular, but angled up from left to right.. If they were flat then the tower wouldn't look very good, because every team's area would become disjointed.
 
Final Siren said:
2017 Round 22
​
KPEudDX.png


The most exciting thing that happened this round was the stars aligning for North Melbourne to play Brisbane for last place on the ladder. As such, today's commentary will be heavily Spoonbowl-tilted.

SiFrGd9.jpg

Look at those two teams, heading for each other like they knew this day was coming. It's a club on the rise vs a club that rose to half-mast in the first 10 rounds before deciding it was all too hard:

c7I4qVV.jpg

Let's also take a moment to appreciate that these aren't the two worst teams. The worst teams are Fremantle and Gold Coast. A Spoonbowl involving Fremantle and Gold Coast would be genuinely terrible. What Brisbane and North Melbourne offer us, by contrast, is a real chance of a decent game. You know how people are always suggesting insane changes to the finals, like wildcard playoffs between 9th to 12th: Spoonbowl 2017 offers a glimpse into that world, where deeply flawed but not completely inept teams battle for something not really that great but still a lot better than the alternative. That is Spoonbowl 2017.

North Melbourne don't deserve the wooden spoon: For the first half of the season, they were about as good as Melbourne is now, but without winning any games. In the first five rounds, they fell 1 point short of Geelong, 3 points short of the Bulldogs, and got done by 5 points in Perth by the Dockers. In fact, in four games against the Dogs & Dockers this year, North Melbourne have managed to lose the lot by a combined total of 13 points. They have a percentage of 84.8, which is better than four other teams, and not far off Hawthorn (89.8).

Brisbane don't deserve the spoon, either. Their second half of the year has had a clear upward trajectory, which defies the basic concept, which is that spoons are for terrible teams in terrible situations with no future so sit down and have a cry and a spoon. Other teams have tried to mess with this in the past, by "strategically" "moving" their "players" at "key moments" in order to "******* cheat," but Brisbane is the lighter side of that: a side on the rise that's genuinely tried all year.

Remember that neither of these teams care a whole lot about defending, and it will be glorious. It will be a beautiful, amazing game.

Tip: Brisbane 110 - 104 North Melbourne

In other news:

DasqlNy.gif

Richmond finally generated a decent score, albeit against an indecent team. The Tigers are a little flattered by their accuracy in kicking 25.5, and the chart can't adequately capture the way Fremantle players spent the second half jogging half-heartedly around the field like they were thinking about the load of laundry they had to do when they got home and whether they needed to stop off for milk. Still, it was a great performance by the Tigers, and made even clearer their year-long improvement.

We didn't learn a whole lot from Adelaide vs Sydney, other than that it was about as competitive as expected. The Crows shouldn't be too unhappy with that game, which they lost only due to some wayward goalkicking.

qukEjLP.png

Essendon should be unable to utensil up a finals berth from here, since they host the Dockers next week. And the current top 4 and top 8 will more likely remain unchanged. But there's a crazy raft of possible scenarios on offer:

RUh2Mx4.png

Richmond have a big chance of finishing 3rd (if they defeat St Kilda) and 6th (if they don't). They are much less likely to finish 4th or 5th, because Port and Sydney have highly winnable games and will overtake them.

Similary, North Melbourne will probably finish 15th if they win Spoonbowl 2017 and 18th if they don't.

If Melbourne and Essendon don't claim 7th and 8th, the Eagles are most likely to slip in there, but it's still possible in a benevolent universe for the Bulldogs and Saints.

Only the Giants can take top spot from Adelaide, and this scenario requires them to defeat Geelong at Kardinia while the Crows do a repeat of 2016 and drop their final game to West Coast.

The top 6 cannot change; that is, no-one currently lower than 6th can break into it, and none of the top 6 can fall out of it.

Similarly, the block of teams currently 7th to 11th is fixed, with only the order within that block still to be decided.

Here's an animated tower, which shows Carlton's last-minute leap to safety, and the final snuffing of Hawthorn:

2Qrry8p.gif

Flagpole this week is mostly notable for Richmond's little jump and some new clarity around who's likely to play finals:

tQVm2cW.gif


More squiggles!

Live squiggles!
Click to expand...
Thanks for all your Squiggling and write ups over the course of the year FinalSiren, definitely the best thread on BigFooty. Also well done to everyone else for leaving the s**t fights for other threads, is really nice to have one place where egos don't take over and the analysis remains friendly.
 
So the tigers are finally looking like a finals team. :p

We'll see how they do over the next month and a bit.

Are the Swans the best ever no-top 4 team?
 
Dr Tigris said:
Are the Swans the best ever no-top 4 team?
Click to expand...

Don't be silly. Last year we had the Crows & WC on 16 wins and the Dogs had 15 wins! 15 wins will get you top spot this year. The dogs won the flag last year because the top 7 teams were all REALLY good and very even (and the bye was of little consequence). Have a look at the top 7 from last year. The Crows were not far from where they are now
 
predictions
HAW vs wb - 30pts
col vs MEL - 12
BL vs nm - 30
SYD vs car - 30
PA vs gc - 60
GEE vs gws - 12
ESS vs fre - 60
wce vs ADE - 12
RIC vs stk - 30

final table
ADE - 66 - 138%
GEE - 62 - 115%
RIC - 60 - 117%
GWS - 60 - 116%
-----------------------
PA - 56 - 125%
SYD - 56 - 123%
MEL - 52 - 106%
ESS - 48 - 108%

Week 1 finals
elimination finals
PA vs ESS @ adelaide
SYD vs MEL @ SCG

qualifiying finals
ADE vs GWS @ adelaide
GEE vs RIC @ MCG
 
lamby said:
Don't be silly. Last year we had the Crows & WC on 16 wins and the Dogs had 15 wins! 15 wins will get you top spot this year. The dogs won the flag last year because the top 7 teams were all REALLY good and very even (and the bye was of little consequence). Have a look at the top 7 from last year. The Crows were not far from where they are now
Click to expand...

By position on the squiggle.

And I am not silly. The Swans are a top 4 team, with bells on. They lost the first 6 games. They are having an unprecedented season. I believe that no team has ever made finals with their first 6 being lost, until now. They are in the premiership position, and very few teams below the top 4 sit there in any year.

So it was just a question. Are the Swans extraordinary for a team sitting 6th, by where they sit on the squiggle?
 
Dr Tigris said:
By position on the squiggle.

And I am not silly. The Swans are a top 4 team, with bells on. They lost the first 6 games. They are having an unprecedented season. I believe that no team has ever made finals with their first 6 being lost, until now. They are in the premiership position, and very few teams below the top 4 sit there in any year.

So it was just a question. Are the Swans extraordinary for a team sitting 6th, by where they sit on the squiggle?
Click to expand...

Carlton were right on the edge of the premiership zone despite finishing 5th in 2001 and 2011 (despite everyone saying we were s**t that year)
 
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