Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[The Swans Blog]

Final Siren Crows likely to be without Sloane for the first final, an upset brewing perhaps...?

 

[GreyCrow]

Squiggle does not recognise appendicitis

 

[Andonis1997]

Unless Adelaide lose to GWS this week, it is impossible for the Swans and Crows to meet in the GF.

And if both Adelaide teams keep winning, we have ourselves a Showdown GF.

 

[Billy ray]

My Suns. My Suns.
The season ended. The pain has gone. No more hurt.

Back where we started the year.

 

[Hobbes]

What about the North team in 2013 that didn't make the 8 but was a top 4 Squiggler?

Worth a mention in the category of "best team to not play finals" but a 66 average didn't make my cut.

 

[Monopoly_Man]

Unless Adelaide lose to GWS this week, it is impossible for the Swans and Crows to meet in the GF.

I'm actually furious at the Suns for this occurrence. If they didn't lie down and die against the Power than the Swans would have been 5th and on the other side of the draw.

For what it's worth, I think Adelaide will lose next week and set up a showdown semi final, before breaking the Tigers' heart's in the prelim. They'll meet the Swans in the grand final, who themselves have just given their crosstown rival deja vu in the other prelim.

We'll get the right grand final yet!

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[roacheee]

Richmond have surprised us all.

Now surely, surely in one of those many sliding doors of the Squiggle, Richmond can win a final.

10% luck and we win the flag

but its impossible, cos it says we beat melbourne in the gf

tee hee hee

go dees

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

10% luck and we win the flag

but its impossible, cos it says we beat melbourne in the gf

tee hee hee

go dees

Thanks for the quote. Made my day already

 

[tazaa]

The Tower makes for painful viewing if you support Melbourne
Painful

 

[Final Siren]

Could you please do an Explosive Squiggle now that H&A is done and the finalists haven't moved yet?

This isn't very different to regular Squiggle since by now the influence of 2016 games is pretty small.

Here's another alternate version: this one using what will probably be the Squiggle 2.0 algorithm:

Squiggle 2.0 cares more about scoring shots and also permits a lot of movement in the very early rounds of the year.

A few notable differences:

• Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Essendon all get a boost from good Round 1 results, while Sydney drop a lot.
• Sydney's recent form isn't rated as highly, since the Swans have been unusually accurate, kicking 72.39 in their last 4 games.
• West Coast aren't rated as highly

 

[SgtSchulz]

This isn't very different to regular Squiggle since by now the influence of 2016 games is pretty small.

Here's another alternate version: this one using what will probably be the Squiggle 2.0 algorithm:

Squiggle 2.0 cares more about scoring shots and also permits a lot of movement in the very early rounds of the year.

A few notable differences:

• Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Essendon all get a boost from good Round 1 results, while Sydney drop a lot.
• Sydney's recent form isn't rated as highly, since the Swans have been unusually accurate, kicking 72.39 in their last 4 games.
• West Coast aren't rated as highly

Couldn't you say more accuracy is related to better set up for shots vs. peppering the goals with low quality.

 

[Final Siren]

Couldn't you say more accuracy is related to better set up for shots vs. peppering the goals with low quality.

Yep, no doubt it often is. There's good reason to treat goals as more important than behinds. Just not six times more important.

 

[SgtSchulz]

Yep, no doubt it often is. There's good reason to treat goals as more important than behinds. Just not six times more important.

None more so than the Westhoff behind at KP from Dixon. Good piece of play set up Dixons shot.

 

[Billy ray]

If you invert the scales, the Suns are in the right spot.
Congratulation meeee!

 

[Hepps]

Hey Final Siren, you going to be doing those finals previews? Only piece of footy analysis worth reading, it's been a really lean week as it is!

Also how did this thread get to page 4? About time for a sticky surely...

 

[beert]

Is there a tower for the flag? That would be cool.

 

[Crowbots are dead]

Port could surprise a few. In the losses to wce and Richmond we controlled large parts of the game but couldn't convert inside 50 dominance or kick straight in small losses.

We're winning at 3qtr time against gws without Ryder.

The first showdown we were up for half the game then just fell short by a few goals.

And Geelong we were winning until some Dangerfield luck and moment of poor defending in the last minute.

While also beating wce away and Sydney round 1. Could have easily won 2 or 3 of those other games against top 8 sides.

With a better team structure from the last few rounds and the break after an early bye, could surprise some

Maybe but every team has these shoulda coulda moments

 

[HTT]

Sorry squiggle, I prefer The Arc's prediction
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...-forensics-statistics-win-all-afl-premiership

 

[sante]

Sorry squiggle, I prefer The Arc's prediction
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...-forensics-statistics-win-all-afl-premiership

How did they compare last year?

 

[GreyCrow]

Adelaide 101 - 73 Greater Western Sydney

Adelaide Oval (SA)

Geelong 83 - 71 Richmond

M.C.G. (VIC)

Sydney 111 - 64 Essendon

S.C.G. (NSW)

Port Adelaide 86 - 62 West Coast

Adelaide Oval (SA)


This weeks tips for Squiggle

 

[Aramis]

Sorry squiggle, I prefer The Arc's prediction
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...-forensics-statistics-win-all-afl-premiership

I can see why a Richmond supporter would love that set of stats/prediction!

Not enough love for Sydney imo

 

[The Swans Blog]

Squiggles man Final Siren has gone MIA with his team playing finals, no doubt partying every night at the idea of playing at least 2 finals this year, losing both no doubt.

 

[HTT]

How did they compare last year?

I couldn't find an article on The Arc about finals predictions last year. Final Siren may know or have some idea about what was predicted?

 

[iluvparis]

Squiggles man Final Siren has gone MIA with his team playing finals, no doubt partying every night at the idea of playing at least 2 finals this year, losing both no doubt.

Understandable - bloke is probably 2 boxes deep in tissues and moisturizer

 

[Final Siren]

Finals Week 1 Preview​

There's been a clear top 2 for a while, and it's Adelaide and Sydney, who are the first and sixth teams on the ladder. If it were one year ago, everyone would be writing Sydney off, as no team had ever come from outside the top 4 to make the Grand Final, let alone win it. But the Bulldogs changed that, and then spent this season dropping hints that it wasn't because they had become a superstar team without anyone noticing.

So it's all bets off, as far as I'm concerned, and current form is king.

Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants​

The Crows started the year with a series of high-scoring matches, propelling them vertically up the chart. Then before you could say "premiership favourite," they were humiliated in consecutive matches by a Spoonbowl contestant and a team that didn't want to play finals if it meant having to beat Collingwood.

Since then, though, Adelaide have toughened up defensively while retaining most of their attacking power.

The Giants began the year as the second-ranked team and fell as injury bit. They could easily have finished outside the top 4, but managed to scrounge together enough close wins and draws to give themselves a straight shot at a Grand Final. It's been that sort of year for GWS, with few outstanding performances and plenty of shaky ones that haven't cost them.

Geelong Cats v Richmond Tigers​

We need to zoom out a bit further for this one, because Richmond started the year ranked as a bottom 6 team. That means that not only did they have a bad 2016, but they didn't show anything toward the end of the year that suggested a rise was on the cards, either. But rise they did, becoming a low-scoring but defensively formidable team. And in the final two games, they showed some attacking power as well.

The Cats are in a similar area, but have trod a far more meandering path, with a season that was never too good nor too bad for too long. They've demolished poor teams and recorded solid wins over good ones, but also had a raft of eyebrow-raising performances, such as losing to Gold Coast and squeaking home against Fremantle and North Melbourne. As such, it's hard to draw a steady bead on the Cats, or find anything like a trend.

Sydney Swans v Essendon Bombers

Hard to say which line is more extraordinary: Essendon's emergence from the absolute bottom to reach finals, or Sydney's tale of a season in two parts. The Swans were never quite as out of form as their ladder position of 16th at the mid-season bye suggested, but there's a clear inflection point here, with an early slide arrested and then dismissed as if it never happened. Since Round 7, the Swans have become once again a completely typical Sydney side, of the kind that made the Grand Final in 2014 & 2016 and won it in 2012. There's an alluring discipline about them, with no really head-scratching performances after those first 6 rounds.

Essendon similarly took 7 rounds to really get going, notwithstanding their emotion-charged Round 1 win over the Hawks. They've made finals on the back of a mid-season stretch that saw them account for Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, and St Kilda, during which time they also didn't fall too short of Sydney, GWS, and Richmond. The last month has been shakier, though, with the Bombers losing comprehensively to Adelaide and the Bulldogs, while not showing terribly much against Gold Coast and Fremantle.

Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles

All year the Eagles have delivered roughly what you would expect: sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less, but never too far beyond expectation. They stand in stark contrast to Port Adelaide, who, when they're on, are very, very on. When they're off, Port are still usually competitive, but it's that gap between their regular setting and the turbo charge switch they flip against lower sides in Gold Coast, Fremantle, Brisbane, and Carlton that has earned them the "flat track bully" moniker.

That's probably undeserved, even though they haven't proved it yet. The Power have been a candidate for Top Four for most of the year, holding the league's second-best percentage, while the Eagles have spent it skirting the fringes of the Eight. If the results of other games had gone only slightly differently, Port could easily be playing a Qualifying Final this weekend with the Eagles players on holiday.