Strategy List Management 101

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Thats not how trading works and they didnt screw us. It made no difference where Heeney was bid on as we were always taking him with our first pick. Mills was worth pick 3 every day of the week, don't blame them at all for bidding on him.

If we somehow managed to get Tom, i think we'd have to find a way to give melbourne either 2 first rounders, or a top 10 pick. Probably with some steak knives thrown in

A top 10 pick for Mcdonald? Nope, he isn't in the top echelon of key position defenders.
 
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I think the one thing last years trade period has shown - DON'T TRADE FUTURE PICKS*

It just guts your draft for two years and if you have a down year it exposes you to a long period down the ladder. Geelong I bet at the end of this year would love to be able to tinker via trade or draft but just don't have the pieces. Collingwood would be likewise but at least they have some players they can draft out for picks.

If Tom McDonald becomes available we should look to keep our 1st Round Pick next year as well as our 2nd Round this year and next. Still need to keep getting kids into our system
 
I think the one thing last years trade period has shown - DON'T TRADE FUTURE PICKS*

It just guts your draft for two years and if you have a down year it exposes you to a long period down the ladder. Geelong I bet at the end of this year would love to be able to tinker via trade or draft but just don't have the pieces. Collingwood would be likewise but at least they have some players they can draft out for picks.

If Tom McDonald becomes available we should look to keep our 1st Round Pick next year as well as our 2nd Round this year and next. Still need to keep getting kids into our system
No issue trading 3-4th maybe even 2nd round picks but never your first rounder. Never.
 

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I think the one thing last years trade period has shown - DON'T TRADE FUTURE PICKS*

It just guts your draft for two years and if you have a down year it exposes you to a long period down the ladder. Geelong I bet at the end of this year would love to be able to tinker via trade or draft but just don't have the pieces. Collingwood would be likewise but at least they have some players they can draft out for picks.

If Tom McDonald becomes available we should look to keep our 1st Round Pick next year as well as our 2nd Round this year and next. Still need to keep getting kids into our system

I bet GWS wished they had traded McCarthy to Freo last year :D
 
The next Episode in this thread will be a sourced explanation of just how incorrect it is to say that you should not trade draft picks for good players.
 

HighReeve

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Why would you categorically rule out trading any commodity?
Player or draft pick, if the exchange improves the team, you do it.

Higher picks allows more choice, but every year there are players who go late in the draft and as rookies that have immediate impact. Papley and McDonald-Tipungwuti just two from last year.

We have some very high quality young players, and are generally a young team overall.
So if it we're me I'd be looking for a ready to go player, ideally a key defender.

Minimum national draft is 3 but at least one, maybe two can be rookie upgrades.
Every year we take 2-4 new rookies so there will be always be younger players coming in.

Sometimes our rookie drafts are more succesful than the main draft eg 2012.
round 1 - Jake Lloyd, round 2 - Xav Richards, Round 3 Dane Rampe, Dan Robinson, Brandon Jack, Sam Naimsmith. All those players have been upgraded to the senior list and have a combined 150+ games.

Meanwhile in the national draft that year we picked up Dean Towers with our first pick #22, 21 games, Harry Marsh next pick #44, 1 game, de-listed to rookie list, #46 Tim Membrey, good pick but whatever the reason(s) he left after his first contract expired, #60 Matty Dick, 0 games de-listed after first contract expired, 6 games at Carlton.
 
Time for this excellent thread to be given a bump up just to remind everyone the true value of certain types of players.

End of season approaches, silly season will be in full swing shortly, already plenty of BF posters are suggesting trades with the usual over rating of their own tradeables and under valuing of the players they want to trade in. The trade scenarios floated by the media so far are intriguing as I really can't see how some of the suggested moves can get done. Tom Mitchell to Hawthorn - how? Hill and McCarthy to Freo when they only have pick 3 and 39+?

Don't think we'll get too involved with our list looking as strong as I can remember. Mitchell wanting out would make us traders but other than that just list tinkering and draft pick shuffling.
 
A very short episode this time. We have 5 teams left

Sydney - if they win, it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (less experienced players in squad than any previous premier)
Geelong - about on par with the list makeup of previous premiers
GWS - on par with the list makeup of the greatest and youngest premiers in the history of the current system (Brisbane and Hawthorn)
Bulldogs - If they win, it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (finished outside top 4)
Adelaide - if they win it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (finished outside top 4)

Will we see history made in 2016?
 

cherub

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A very short episode this time. We have 5 teams left

Sydney - if they win, it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (less experienced players in squad than any previous premier)
Geelong - about on par with the list makeup of previous premiers
GWS - on par with the list makeup of the greatest and youngest premiers in the history of the current system (Brisbane and Hawthorn)
Bulldogs - If they win, it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (finished outside top 4)
Adelaide - if they win it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (finished outside top 4)

Will we see history made in 2016?
That week off before the finals has really changed toe odds for outside top 4 teams.
 
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A very short episode this time. We have 5 teams left

Sydney - if they win, it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (less experienced players in squad than any previous premier)
Geelong - about on par with the list makeup of previous premiers
GWS - on par with the list makeup of the greatest and youngest premiers in the history of the current system (Brisbane and Hawthorn)
Bulldogs - If they win, it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (finished outside top 4)
Adelaide - if they win it will be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system (finished outside top 4)

Will we see history made in 2016?

Yes.

That week off before the finals has really changed toe odds for outside top 4 teams.

agree. losing last week ws probably the best thing for us. an uninterupted run to the flag is the best case. typically we lose more often than not straight after a bye.
 

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Episode 4 - Who can win the premiership?

Summary

If Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne or St Kilda win the Premiership in 2016 it will be an achievement without precedent in the 16 year history of the current finals system.

If the Bulldogs win the Premiership in 2016 it will match the great Brisbane side of 2001 and they are set for a dynasty. More likely is that they finish top 4 and are set for a strong near future, as per Port (2001), Collingwood (2002, 2003) and Geelong (2004).

Who needs David King when we have swansfan51 :drunk:
 
swansfan51

Just wanted to tell you what a wonderful job you have done here! I have always pretty much ignored the trade period and waited for the outcome because I never knew what the hell was going on or why we did what did... reducing it to numbers was a godsend for me! I will never think in terms of best 22 again!

What are you thoughts on an unchanged team? From reading your posts, it would seem that we would to keep 28 active in the AFL to account for injuries, suspensions, form drops and so on, but every now and then you see a team have a run of unchanged for few weeks... Do they in reality make changes for match ups or are they just keeping that best 28 active at AFL level, or is it really better to keep the team unchanged? Or have I completely misunderstood and need to go back and read again? :eek:
 
Episode 5 - Geelong revisited

After a long time between drinks, time for another list management post! 2 years ago I had a detailed look at Geelong's list management, in response to widespread criticism that they had sold the farm for Dangerfield and Henderson, sold their future, were crap, and so on. This was pretty uninformed commentary and I was pretty skeptical. The analysis I did seemed to back up the belief that they were better placed than most thought (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-101.1114741/page-2#post-41633235)

Reminder summary from last time

Geelong traded away several high draft picks to secure experienced quality players in Patrick Dangerfield and Lachie Henderson. They then did the same last year to secure Zach Tuohy. As shown last time, high draft picks are overrated and incredibly unlikely to ever reach the level of Patrick Dangerfield. They are at best a 50% likelihood to reach the level of Tuohy or Henderson. Therefore I had no issue with those trades. I suggested that, contrary to the widespread belief, Geelong had no problems with their depth. Key to their ongoing success would be their ability to work well with low draft picks (as they had traded their early ones for experienced players), and I noted that these low picks have a historical success percentage high enough to ensure some quality players. This, combined with Wells' historical outperformance, gave me a high level of confidence in their future.

Where are they now?

Since my last post on Geelong, they have had 1 trade period and 2 drafts. I will look at the trades first as it more directly follows on from the last analysis.

As they did in 2015, Geelong used their future first round pick (2017's one) to secure an experienced quality footballer in Zach Tuohy. In return they acquired Carlton's 2017 2nd round pick. The gap between these picks could be as little as 4 spots this year. In any event, Tuohy has been a fantastic acquisition - playing every match this year, and performing at a high level. Geelong also traded away Billie Smedts, Shane Kersten, Nathan Vardy, and Josh Caddy. This lead to renewed concerns about their lack of depth. As usual, these concerns were misguided and were propagated by people who don't actually understand list management and hadn't reviewed the stats and history.

Geelong started 2017 with 17 players with 50+ games experience, and a further 7 with 25+ games experience. This put them firmly in the required bracket to challenge for finals and premierships. You can see the proof behind this in a previous post here (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-101.1114741/page-4#post-43932828).

Heading to the draft

As discussed last time, the key for Geelong's future would be for Stephen Wells to hit the draft hard and deep, maximise the number of new players added to the list, then quickly identify the ones that would not become good players at AFL level, and dispose of them.

In 2015 despite taking his first pick at #59, Wells added 2 players who have become important 2017 regulars - Sam Menegola and James Parsons. He also added Tom Ruggles who played most of 2016 before hitting issues this year, and Wylie Buzza who they wouldn't rule out yet. Wells immediately delisted his 1 failed rookie pick (Cornell) after the first year. At least 1 failed national draft pick should be turfed this year also. So far, so good.

Despite some success from very limited resources in 2015, 2016 was a crucial draft. Critically, Wells hit the mark with his 2 2nd round picks - Parfitt and Stewart. Guthrie and Simpson also showed some signs as later selections. I will again judge Wells by his ability to immediately cull the failed rookies this year, then the failed national draft selections next year. While it is early days, again it seems Wells has outperformed the historical success percentage for the late draft picks and acquired several useful players.

Where the list now stands

Geelong's squad, as shown above, was in the right spot to compete for finals in 2017 and did not disappoint. They finished equal top on the ladder, and of course beat us on Friday despite having a slightly younger side.

After the retirements of Mackie and Lonergan, this is how they will finish up in 2017 (before the trade and draft periods):

Only 1 player over 30
Only 3 players over 27
17 players with 50+ games experience
8 players with 25+ games experience (these 2 figures again put them in the finals and premiership contention bracket)
Their best draft position since 2014

After the initial review in 2015, and seeing where they are 2 years on, I remain convinced that Stephen Wells is the best in the business by some margin.
 
Thanks SF51. That is a really interesting analysis.

Wells has a fine record.

I think our record in selections is pretty good - notably in the late draft picks and rookies as well as trades - and of course we were hit by the ban.

Where we could learn from Wells is how we handle list turnover, both in players who have had a 2-3 year period on the list without producing as well as in how we handle our veterans. Geelong has been tough minded in handling vets near the end of their careers.

One good thing is that we have blooded a large number of players over the past two years. Some will make it - Melican, Newman, Hewett, Mills, Papley and hopefully Allir, Haywood, Dawson and Haywood will make it.

One bad thing is that we are stuck with a number of players who have been recontracted that will not make the grade. Foote, B Jack*, Rose, Cunningham, Rohan, Robinson, Marsh (contract thankfully expires this year). We need to be more ruthless with both the main and the rookie list. Re the latter, there are only slim pickings - maybe Edwards and possibly Fisher.

I felt conflicted when Macca was re-signed. His form in the second half of the season was very good and he even earned his keep in the Friday debacle. So I felt his form warranted an extension but I could only see a downhill trajectory for next year. So what is the value of his retention? Problematic. And what about the timing which was on the doorstop of the Finals? We are now locked in. Hawthorn last year did not deal with Mitchell and Lewis until after the Finals. That to me was the correct approach.
 

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8 changes from 14 to 16 gf, 5 changes from 16 gf to Fri night.
 
Episode 5 - Geelong revisited

After a long time between drinks, time for another list management post! 2 years ago I had a detailed look at Geelong's list management, in response to widespread criticism that they had sold the farm for Dangerfield and Henderson, sold their future, were crap, and so on. This was pretty uninformed commentary and I was pretty skeptical. The analysis I did seemed to back up the belief that they were better placed than most thought (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-101.1114741/page-2#post-41633235)

Reminder summary from last time

Geelong traded away several high draft picks to secure experienced quality players in Patrick Dangerfield and Lachie Henderson. They then did the same last year to secure Zach Tuohy. As shown last time, high draft picks are overrated and incredibly unlikely to ever reach the level of Patrick Dangerfield. They are at best a 50% likelihood to reach the level of Tuohy or Henderson. Therefore I had no issue with those trades. I suggested that, contrary to the widespread belief, Geelong had no problems with their depth. Key to their ongoing success would be their ability to work well with low draft picks (as they had traded their early ones for experienced players), and I noted that these low picks have a historical success percentage high enough to ensure some quality players. This, combined with Wells' historical outperformance, gave me a high level of confidence in their future.

Where are they now?

Since my last post on Geelong, they have had 1 trade period and 2 drafts. I will look at the trades first as it more directly follows on from the last analysis.

As they did in 2015, Geelong used their future first round pick (2017's one) to secure an experienced quality footballer in Zach Tuohy. In return they acquired Carlton's 2017 2nd round pick. The gap between these picks could be as little as 4 spots this year. In any event, Tuohy has been a fantastic acquisition - playing every match this year, and performing at a high level. Geelong also traded away Billie Smedts, Shane Kersten, Nathan Vardy, and Josh Caddy. This lead to renewed concerns about their lack of depth. As usual, these concerns were misguided and were propagated by people who don't actually understand list management and hadn't reviewed the stats and history.

Geelong started 2017 with 17 players with 50+ games experience, and a further 7 with 25+ games experience. This put them firmly in the required bracket to challenge for finals and premierships. You can see the proof behind this in a previous post here (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-101.1114741/page-4#post-43932828).

Heading to the draft

As discussed last time, the key for Geelong's future would be for Stephen Wells to hit the draft hard and deep, maximise the number of new players added to the list, then quickly identify the ones that would not become good players at AFL level, and dispose of them.

In 2015 despite taking his first pick at #59, Wells added 2 players who have become important 2017 regulars - Sam Menegola and James Parsons. He also added Tom Ruggles who played most of 2016 before hitting issues this year, and Wylie Buzza who they wouldn't rule out yet. Wells immediately delisted his 1 failed rookie pick (Cornell) after the first year. At least 1 failed national draft pick should be turfed this year also. So far, so good.

Despite some success from very limited resources in 2015, 2016 was a crucial draft. Critically, Wells hit the mark with his 2 2nd round picks - Parfitt and Stewart. Guthrie and Simpson also showed some signs as later selections. I will again judge Wells by his ability to immediately cull the failed rookies this year, then the failed national draft selections next year. While it is early days, again it seems Wells has outperformed the historical success percentage for the late draft picks and acquired several useful players.

Where the list now stands

Geelong's squad, as shown above, was in the right spot to compete for finals in 2017 and did not disappoint. They finished equal top on the ladder, and of course beat us on Friday despite having a slightly younger side.

After the retirements of Mackie and Lonergan, this is how they will finish up in 2017 (before the trade and draft periods):

Only 1 player over 30
Only 3 players over 27
17 players with 50+ games experience
8 players with 25+ games experience (these 2 figures again put them in the finals and premiership contention bracket)
Their best draft position since 2014

After the initial review in 2015, and seeing where they are 2 years on, I remain convinced that Stephen Wells is the best in the business by some margin.


Enjoyable read, but we will have Joel, scott, Danger, 2e, Stanley, Smith, Hawkins and Henderson over 27
 
Enjoyable read, but we will have Joel, scott, Danger, 2e, Stanley, Smith, Hawkins and Henderson over 27
What I wrote was correct
After the retirements of Mackie and Lonergan, this is how they will finish up in 2017 (before the trade and draft periods):

Only 3 players over 27
Those 3 players are Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor. The rest are all 27
 
What I wrote was correct

Those 3 players are Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor. The rest are all 27
Ah apologies. Isn't 2E 28?*

Edited, he's 28 in December
 
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