Opinion 2017 Draft Discussion - Pick 3 - Poll added

[Jimmae]

My concern with LDU is speed, it's the one thing we lack in the midfield and I am not sold that Fisher can play there.

For the draft experts who would be quicker out of Cerra and Dow, Cerra sounds like a flashy name and flash=quick so I naturally assume he is quicker.

LDU has speed aplenty, and doesn't really need to prove anything to recruiters in testing. He's done it on the field, and has pushed through the season remarkably well.

His combine was on Saturday, and he smashed it.

 

[BlackGoanna]

Sounds like Rayner will definitely be gone. Ldu will surely be gone too so I guess its out of Dow, Cerra or Brayshaw?

You need to add Stephenson to that mix

 

[BlackGoanna]

My concern with LDU is speed, it's the one thing we lack in the midfield and I am not sold that Fisher can play there.

For the draft experts who would be quicker out of Cerra and Dow, Cerra sounds like a flashy name and flash=quick so I naturally assume he is quicker.

LDU is very quick and powerful. Dow is very quick and powerful. Cerra is not quick, he is evasive.

 

[La Dispute]

I'd be tempted to take Brayshaw at 3 tbh. Really rate him

 

[BlueBlood84]

If Rayner and LDU go top 2 i think we take Stephenson just ahead of Dow and Cerra

 

[The Smoking Gun]

That's what I'm saying: if we can turn 3 and out future 2nd into 7 and 8 (i.e. LDU off the board and Saints have a favourite), there's a better opportunity to boost the midfield.

This is something you & I are going to have to agree to disagree about. Irrespective of what arguments people come up with Rayner, LDU, Cerra & Dow have been clear, and I do mean daylight clear, ahead of everyone else. Not just last month, not just this month, but all year. Three of those kids are genuine quality inside mids who have proven they not only can they play the position, but do it with aplomb. I'd be absolutely ******* filthy with SOS if pissed away the opportunity to get his hands on one of the best 3 inside mids to become available through the draft in recent years.

I think he's an explosive player who takes the game on, and unlike Rayner, he really doesn't need to grind out much more of a tank to play midfield just through his sheer size and sidestep.

While he spends 18 months doing that, he can rotate with Cripps, Charlie and SOS. They'll need some zip around them of course, but I think Fogarty will be a better version of Wines if he can build that tank up significantly.

I know you like Fogarty and I know he's surged back up the draft boards, but based upon what??? He hasn't done anything to warrant that....at all. I think, like Worpel, there are a number of kids that have developed, grown and improved to a point where they've comfortably passed him in the pecking order. Once again, by the kid's own admission he's a forward who would like to spend some time in the midfield as he improves his endurance. Yes he's big, yes he has a nice sidestep, but he's not all that quick and he'll need a lot more tricks than that if he's to make it as a mid. One of our biggest issues is our lack of defensive running through the midfield and I struggle to see how Fogarty addresses that.

Next year there is a high probability that SOS will target one of Lukosius, Williams or one of the King Brothers with our first pick and then we'll take the BOSS as a FS. From my perspective, I don't really see a place on our list for Fogarty. He's a luxury we don't really need or can afford at this stage of our rebuild.

Hey look, if he's going to be available in the 14-25 range, I'm stoked because that's a far more achievable trade, but I keep looking at the Saints, West Coast, Sydney, Richmond and Adelaide and they could all use him.

If the medical is sound (and going by the testing it has to be, it's just down to him getting strength back in his legs and around his knees and ankles), then there's limit devaluing because his footy IQ is solid and work rate is up there. With respect to his 'double' reco, it was the first reco being fixed due to surgical error, which is a big difference.

Someone was saying the other day that the Caulfield Grammar footy staff (or possibly the Dandenong team) got more enquiries about Bonar than any other player. They've all been trying to get him cheap, which means someone is going to pounce in the first round. Bishop's got him not making it to #12 as of this morning.

I can live with Bonar, but only with a pick we obtain from trading Gibbs and only if Brayshaw was already taken. Anymore of this offloading Pick 3 for Fogarty talk and I'm gonna start telling you to have a good long hard sniff of what you're shovelling.

FWIW, I don't think Brayshaw would be there at pick 10.

Look, you can't have Naughton, Brander, Stephenson, Bonar & Fogarty storming into a Top 10 containing Cerra, Rayner, Constable, LDU & Dow without Brayshaw, Coffield, Higgins, etc being squeezed out. He'll be there at 10.

 

[Jimmae]

This is something you & I are going to have to agree to disagree about. Irrespective of what arguments people come up with Rayner, LDU, Cerra & Dow have been clear, and I do mean daylight clear, ahead of everyone else. Not just last month, not just this month, but all year. Three of those kids are genuine quality inside mids who have proven they not only can they play the position, but do it with aplomb. I'd be absolutely ******* filthy with SOS if pissed away the opportunity to get his hands on one of the best 3 inside mids to become available through the draft in recent years.

I personally don't see the same value in Dow and Rayner. Nightmare scenario for me is LDU and Cerra off the board at #3.

I know you like Fogarty and I know he's surged back up the draft boards, but based upon what??? He hasn't done anything to warrant that....at all. I think, like Worpel, there are a number of kids that have developed, grown and improved to a point where they've comfortably passed him in the pecking order. Once again, by the kid's own admission he's a forward who would like to spend some time in the midfield as he improves his endurance. Yes he's big, yes he has a nice sidestep, but he's not all that quick and he'll need a lot more tricks than that if he's to make it as a mid. One of our biggest issues is our lack of defensive running through the midfield and I struggle to see how Fogarty addresses that.

Fair points, it is looking increasingly speculative.

Next year there is a high probability that SOS will target one of Lukosius, Williams or one of the King Brothers with our first pick and then we'll take the BOSS as a FS. From my perspective, I don't really see a place on our list for Fogarty. He's a luxury we don't really need or can afford at this stage of our rebuild.

I'd be ropeable if we're bottom 6 again next year.

I can live with Bonar, but only with a pick we obtain from trading Gibbs and only if Brayshaw was already taken. Anymore of this offloading Pick 3 for Fogarty talk and I'm gonna start telling you to have a good long hard sniff of what you're shovelling.

Yup, I was unusually bullish on this, I'll cop that.

Look, you can't have Naughton, Brander, Stephenson, Bonar & Fogarty storming into a Top 10 containing Cerra, Rayner, Constable, LDU & Dow without Brayshaw, Coffield, Higgins, etc being squeezed out. He'll be there at 10.

I think Brander will get squeezed out unless the Saints are desperate for a tall. They might even wind up seeing Bonar and Fogarty as a means of hedging their bets.

Doggies at 9 (and possibly 11) seem a risk too given Stringer being moved on.

 

[TerryWallet]

Hmmm, some opinions becoming more bullish by the post.

Everyone has different thoughts. For eg TSG, Brisbane have said that Rayner, LDU, Dow and Brayshaw are in the mix for their pick, and not your beloved Cerra

Whereas other Clubs may have Cerra at 1 on their list and Brayshaw(or whoever) not in their Top 10.

I reckon the only near certainties so far are :

LDU top 2.
Rayner and Dow top 4.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Some interesting/ concerning points of interest from the Brisbane board.

Apparently Brisbane are going to take Lobbe from port. why is this interesting? Because apparently for doing port a favour and taking him and his contract, Port will then officially pay rockliff $900K+ a year, which puts him into band 1 salary and means Brisbane get a pick after their first rounder i.e pick 2 in the draft.

 

[Love the Drake]

Some interesting/ concerning points of interest from the Brisbane board.

Apparently Brisbane are going to take Lobbe from port. why is this interesting? Because apparently for doing port a favour and taking him and his contract, Port will then officially pay rockliff $900K+ a year, which puts him into band 1 salary and means Brisbane get a pick after their first rounder i.e pick 2 in the draft.

Surely the AFL would see through this. No way Brizzie get a first rounder..

 

[Fred Sexton]

Some interesting/ concerning points of interest from the Brisbane board.

Apparently Brisbane are going to take Lobbe from port. why is this interesting? Because apparently for doing port a favour and taking him and his contract, Port will then officially pay rockliff $900K+ a year, which puts him into band 1 salary and means Brisbane get a pick after their first rounder i.e pick 2 in the draft.

Is this even legal? Surely common sense will prevail here with the AFLs discretion on compensation.


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[HARKER]

Surely the AFL would see through this. No way Brizzie get a first rounder..

They'd get the Band 1 if the AFL want them to.
The noise around all that though, would be hard to ignore.
SOS would have every right to make that noise and if we offered Rockliff around 650K, Port would have had no reason to offer 900K.
It is the AFL though and they'll get what they want. If it was GC, it would be a shoe-in for a band one.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The AFL need Brisbane to be successful, QLD footy is in a mess and they will do everything to help them and if they stuff over Carlton at the same time will see it as a bonus.

 

[BlackGoanna]

Some interesting/ concerning points of interest from the Brisbane board.

Apparently Brisbane are going to take Lobbe from port. why is this interesting? Because apparently for doing port a favour and taking him and his contract, Port will then officially pay rockliff $900K+ a year, which puts him into band 1 salary and means Brisbane get a pick after their first rounder i.e pick 2 in the draft.

This would be an absolute disgrace if it happened

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

It also wont be terribly hard to justify why Port are paying him $900k, b&f winner, goal kicking mid etc etc so the AFL will lap it up.

 

[SHOWEY]

How can they possibly afford it (port)??????

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

How can they possibly afford it (port)??????

Lobbe would be on close to $900k, if they dont have that any more then it is easy. Brisbane would not be close to paying the salary cap max so will happily take on a dud contract to get pick 2... If it was us in that situation, i would hope we would do it as well but unlike Brisbane the AFL wouldnt allow us to play the system like that.

 

[BlackGoanna]

It also wont be terribly hard to justify why Port are paying him $900k, b&f winner, goal kicking mid etc etc so the AFL will lap it up.

Honestly your source is Brisbane board of big footy. Its much like when we have people on this board coming up with ridiculous trade suggestions... like Pick 3 for Saints Pick 7 and 8

 

[SHOWEY]

Honestly your source is Brisbane board of big footy. Its much like when we have people on this board coming up with ridiculous trade suggestions... like Pick 3 for Saints Pick 7 and 8

Hey hey now
I suggested 3 for 7+8 too

 

[Jeremias]

How can they possibly afford it (port)??????

Pretty comfortably I would have thought.

Trengove + Lobbe out the door = a hell of a lot of salary relief.

Not to mention the cap just went up considerably.

 

[CJMB]

Lobbe would be on close to $900k, if they dont have that any more then it is easy. Brisbane would not be close to paying the salary cap max so will happily take on a dud contract to get pick 2... If it was us in that situation, i would hope we would do it as well but unlike Brisbane the AFL wouldnt allow us to play the system like that.

Port has got to be an interesting situation with their spending.
Lobbe on big coin out. Trengrove was reported on $700k or more. Impey, Young and Ah Chee also possibly on the way out. So that frees up a bit. Not sure what the go is with the player contracts and the 20% increase but they'll need to have a fair bit free considering their possible trade actions with Rockliff nominating them as well as links to Motlop and Watts. Probably helps our cause if they go for all three which reduces the chances of them offering a super-deal/overs for Rockliff and push Brisbane towards band 1 compensation.

 

[BlackGoanna]

Hey hey now
I suggested 3 for 7+8 too

Yes well if SOS is really smart and St Kilda really dumb.. we could trade 3 for 7&8 , and then trade 7&8 to Brisbane for 1&18... nah not going to happen lol

 

[CJMB]

Honestly your source is Brisbane board of big footy. Its much like when we have people on this board coming up with ridiculous trade suggestions... like Pick 3 for Saints Pick 7 and 8

Itsallaboutme is saying that would be Port's justification for offering Rocky a crazy high salary to get Brissy the pick. Not saying he's actually worth $900k+ but that they could use those reasons to argue it.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

I personally don't see the same value in Dow and Rayner. Nightmare scenario for me is LDU and Cerra off the board at #3.

Meh, I think you're stressing too much. Any of LDU, Dow or Cerra will make an excellent addition to our midfield. I like all of them for various reasons.

I'd be ropeable if we're bottom 6 again next year.

Rankine, Hill, Walsh, Rozee & Bytel will split them up a bit and be Top 10 contenders. Need to be realistic Jimmae. I reckon come the second half of next season is where we'll really start to see Curnow, Weitering, SOSOS & Cuningham display the tools on a regular basis that caught SOS' eye. They'll be getting into that 25-50 game zone where they start to believe they belong, can compete and have their opponent's measure. That's not to say that some inconsistency as they continue to build won't drive us nuts at times.

I think Brander will get squeezed out unless the Saints are desperate for a tall. They might even wind up seeing Bonar and Fogarty as a means of hedging their bets.

This is where it gets hard, because we tend to rate the kids based on what may best suit our list. Who knows who Norf will take. Fogarty & Brander could have huge appeal to them and provide another way to goal other than Brown. Alternatively they might like Higgins who could potentially provide something similar to what Harvey used to. The Pies & Dockers probably need KPPs more than mids so Brander or Naughton might be a higher priority.

Hmmm, some opinions becoming more bullish by the post.

Everyone has different thoughts. For eg TSG, Brisbane have said that Rayner, LDU, Dow and Brayshaw are in the mix for their pick, and not your beloved Cerra

Whereas other Clubs may have Cerra at 1 on their list and Brayshaw(or whoever) not in their Top 10.

I reckon the only near certainties so far are :

LDU top 2.
Rayner and Dow top 4.

Any of Dow, LDU or Cerra will serve us well TW.

 

[Aphrodite]