Opinion 2017 Draft Discussion - Pick 3 - Poll added

[The Smoking Gun]

Yes well if SOS is really smart and St Kilda really dumb.. we could trade 3 for 7&8 , and then trade 7&8 to Brisbane for 1&18... nah not going to happen lol

That theory is only valid if you base it on a points value. The problem is points don't play games people do. Rayner, Dow, LDU, Cerra & Constable have been clear standouts above the rest all year. Do you go with the elite Dangerfield at 3 or do you go with good Duncan & Cockatoo with 7 & 8 because you get 2 for 1??? Just something to keep in mind.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The stand out testers always end up average AFL players..

Look at these and the Agility test appears to be the only one that is producing regular AFL quality players.

http://www.topendsports.com/sport/afl/testing-draft-results-best.htm

 

[TerryWallet]

Any of Dow, LDU or Cerra will serve us well TW.

Now that we missed on Rocky(and Smith meh) and i still anticipate Gibbs going, i agree it will def be a core mid.

I'm still not sold on Cerra being a certain Top 5 pick personally, but wouldn't surprise or displease me in the least if he came to us if LDU is gone and maybe Dow.

My personal Top 4 is still what it was a month ago. Not specifically for Carlton but just overall:

Rayner and LDU at 1 and 2
Dow and Stephenson at 3 and 4.
Cerra at 6 or 7.

Constable will be the interesting one for me on draft night. I have him at 5 on my last list from a month ago and i still like him, as i know you do(?). But it wouldn't surprise if he doesn't go in the first dozen. Has a wide range it seems.

 

[BlackGoanna]

That theory is only valid if you base it on a points value. The problem is points don't play games people do. Rayner, Dow, LDU, Cerra & Constable have been clear standouts above the rest all year. Do you go with the elite Dangerfield at 3 or do you go with good Duncan & Cockatoo with 7 & 8 because you get 2 for 1??? Just something to keep in mind.

Yes I have considered that and we saw what GWS did last year trying to up the draft order to get McGrath. GWS are unique with the amount of picks and high end talent they can afford to do that.

Saints and Pick 7&8 for 3 is a much different conversation. Firstly from a points perspective they'd be giving up 1000 points. From a player perspective there is not much difference between the top 10 really, its all speculative to some degree. Why would they give up 2 chances with 7&8 for 1 chance at 3.

So either way points value of player potential it's really a conversation people keep having that isn't close to reality

 

[Arr0w]

I see an Arr0w long-shot in Ben Miller testing very well. Bloody quick and agile for someone who is 196cm & nearly 100kgs. Can kick too. Good catch from a very long way out mate. You mentioned him to me months ago. How did he finish off the season in the west???

I noticed that, 4th in the 20m sprint and equal 1st in the agility test for a big bloke is pretty awesome

Arr0w am I right that he is a 196cm ruckman?? If so do you think he can play that role at that height at AFL level or would he have to transition to a KPP??

http://www.wafl.com.au/players/view/6507 - Stats from this season.

What impresses me about Miller is his thirst for a contest. Is extremely agile and has a massive leap. Given his DOB, many of these taller kids have a propensity to continue growing until they are 22. If they change the centre bounce rule, to a throw up, I think it would suit Miller. He is has enough aggression to also compete well around the ground. I believe he could turn out similar to a Jenkins, would be a great pick up late in the draft

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Now that we missed on Rocky(and Smith meh) and i still anticipate Gibbs going, i agree it will def be a core mid.

I'm still not sold on Cerra being a certain Top 5 pick personally, but wouldn't surprise or displease me in the least if he came to us if LDU is gone and maybe Dow.

My personal Top 4 is still what it was a month ago. Not specifically for Carlton but just overall:

Rayner and LDU at 1 and 2
Dow and Stephenson at 3 and 4.
Cerra at 6 or 7.

Constable will be the interesting one for me on draft night. I have him at 5 on my last list from a month ago and i still like him, as i know you do(?). But it wouldn't surprise if he doesn't go in the first dozen. Has a wide range it seems.

What I love about both Cerra & Constable is the quality of their disposal. Lets face it, the quality of our disposal through the middle of the ground is shithouse. Our delivery of the ball into the F50 is shithouse. The amount of times we turn the ball over during transition without pressure is shithouse. Apart from Cripps, our ability to effectively extract the ball with purpose from stoppage and clearance situations is shithouse. The addition of Cerra or Constable will assist to address this.

The only hesitation I have adding Constable to Cripps and Kennedy is that I think it starts to look a little one-paced. Cerra's top speed is fine, but his rate of acceleration will need to be addressed. I'd send him off to the same running coach that assisted Cripps. When you have similarly rated players, I'll always defer to the one with the best disposal. That's why I've been big on Cerra & Brayshaw from day dot.

 

[Arr0w]

Brayshaw continues to test well

LOB showing his athletics background, broke the state schools record for 400 metres IIRC

 

[Aphrodite]

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2017-10-06/combine-wrap-saints-eye-deep-draft

 

[Aphrodite]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-10-06/combine-wrap-who-boosted-their-draft-stocks

 

[Garth Vader]

I've changed my vote to Dow. Like the fact that he appears to have very good break-away speed, amongst other things.

Maybe Cerra is too similar to an SPS in playing style? ....not that you should necessarily restrict yourself to one SPS.

I guess I'm very mindful of how speed has been a big factor for the successful sides, over ther last few seasons.

 

[La Dispute]

Would still rather Brayshaw and Coffield than just Dow/LDU, but I doubt the trade would happen.

There's a minor drop-off after the first few, but it's marginal.

I think we'll end up with Cerra or Dow, after Rayner and LDU are taken.

 

[BlackGoanna]

I've changed my vote to Dow. Like the fact that he appears to have very good break-away speed, amongst other things.

Maybe Cerra is too similar to an SPS in playing style? ....not that you should necessarily restrict yourself to one SPS.

I guess I'm very mindful of how speed has been a big factor for the successful sides, over ther last few seasons.

that's fine, you will probably changed it again prior to the draft.

 

[ray8182]

This is something you & I are going to have to agree to disagree about. Irrespective of what arguments people come up with Rayner, LDU, Cerra & Dow have been clear, and I do mean daylight clear, ahead of everyone else. Not just last month, not just this month, but all year. Three of those kids are genuine quality inside mids who have proven they not only can they play the position, but do it with aplomb. I'd be absolutely ******* filthy with SOS if pissed away the opportunity to get his hands on one of the best 3 inside mids to become available through the draft in recent years.


I know you like Fogarty and I know he's surged back up the draft boards, but based upon what??? He hasn't done anything to warrant that....at all. I think, like Worpel, there are a number of kids that have developed, grown and improved to a point where they've comfortably passed him in the pecking order. Once again, by the kid's own admission he's a forward who would like to spend some time in the midfield as he improves his endurance. Yes he's big, yes he has a nice sidestep, but he's not all that quick and he'll need a lot more tricks than that if he's to make it as a mid. One of our biggest issues is our lack of defensive running through the midfield and I struggle to see how Fogarty addresses that.

Next year there is a high probability that SOS will target one of Lukosius, Williams or one of the King Brothers with our first pick and then we'll take the BOSS as a FS. From my perspective, I don't really see a place on our list for Fogarty. He's a luxury we don't really need or can afford at this stage of our rebuild.


I can live with Bonar, but only with a pick we obtain from trading Gibbs and only if Brayshaw was already taken. Anymore of this offloading Pick 3 for Fogarty talk and I'm gonna start telling you to have a good long hard sniff of what you're shovelling.


Look, you can't have Naughton, Brander, Stephenson, Bonar & Fogarty storming into a Top 10 containing Cerra, Rayner, Constable, LDU & Dow without Brayshaw, Coffield, Higgins, etc being squeezed out. He'll be there at 10.

You raise some interesting points.

The first is how LDU, Rayner, Dow and Cerra seem to have separated themselves from the rest. That is the feeling, that they are the most proven midfielders. Trading outside the top 4 is interesting and would indicate the club does not think this is the case.

I disagree about Fogarty having done nothing. He’s been injured and played injured in his final year and as a result we don’t have as much information about him relative to other players. Clubs have been following players for a number of years and have a much broader understanding of each player over multiple years than we do when looking at final year. Clubs are also well aware of top juniors getting injured in final year and sliding in the draft. The most well known would be Selwood.

Fogarty looks like one of the real impact players in the draft who can not only win the ball in the air and on the ground but has quality disposal. The hardest thing for me is knowing what position he will end up in. I agree we have plenty 3rd tall type players and we are desperate for midfielders. Plowman and Marchbank can play intercepting defender role. Silvagni can play third tall up forward. Maybe Fogarty will be more than just a marking 3rd tall. Maybe he ends up being hybrid forward/midfielder.

In the era of the hybrid forward maybe curnow and Fogarty would be main forward targets. Maybe they would alternate between forward and midfield. I’m not keen on having 2 big key forwards these days, instead preferring 1 with a more mobile forward line.

A comparative player from recent draft is Essendons Francis. Quality 3rd tall marking player in draft year. The difference between Francis and Fogarty for me is Fogartys work in the contest. Better contested player.

Does Fogarty become a match winner up forward and in the midfield or does he become a run of the mill 3rd tall? Would need to know his game really well to make this call.


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[HARKER]

You raise some interesting points.

The first is how LDU, Rayner, Dow and Cerra seem to have separated themselves from the rest. That is the feeling, that they are the most proven midfielders. Trading outside the top 4 is interesting and would indicate the club does not think this is the case.

I disagree about Fogarty having done nothing. He’s been injured and played injured in his final year and as a result we don’t have as much information about him relative to other players. Clubs have been following players for a number of years and have a much broader understanding of each player over multiple years than we do when looking at final year. Clubs are also well aware of top juniors getting injured in final year and sliding in the draft. The most well known would be Selwood.

Fogarty looks like one of the real impact players in the draft who can not only win the ball in the air and on the ground but has quality disposal. The hardest thing for me is knowing what position he will end up in. I agree we have plenty 3rd tall type players and we are desperate for midfielders. Plowman and Marchbank can play intercepting defender role. Silvagni can play third tall up forward. Maybe Fogarty will be more than just a marking 3rd tall. Maybe he ends up being hybrid forward/midfielder.

In the era of the hybrid forward maybe curnow and Fogarty would be main forward targets. Maybe they would alternate between forward and midfield. I’m not keen on having 2 big key forwards these days, instead preferring 1 with a more mobile forward line.

A comparative player from recent draft is Essendons Francis. Quality 3rd tall marking player in draft year. The difference between Francis and Fogarty for me is Fogartys work in the contest. Better contested player.

Does Fogarty become a match winner up forward and in the midfield or does he become a run of the mill 3rd tall? Would need to know his game really well to make this call.


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Interesting also in that 3 of those 4 guys are effectively bottom-agers, all with October birthdays.

 

[DangerousD]

Just stumbled upon a BF thread “40 prospects to watch for 2017” there were some good bios there and guess what else, all the talk of it being a super draft just like 2018 is now.

Does anyone know how Jordan Houlahan went this year? His write up in the above thread was good and he was top 2 in both kicking tests at this years combine.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Just stumbled upon a BF thread “40 prospects to watch for 2017” there were some good bios there and guess what else, all the talk of it being a super draft just like 2018 is now.

Does anyone know how Jordan Houlahan went this year? His write up in the above thread was good and he was top 2 in both kicking tests at this years combine.

Went rather well in both vertical jumps too also.

Standing vertical jump
Aiden Bonar (Vic Country) 89cm
Kyron Hayden (Western Australia) 82cm
Ben Paton (Vic Country) 80cm
Harrison Jones (Vic Country) 79cm
Jordan Houlahan (South Australia) 77cm
Jordan Johnston (Vic Country) 75cm
Jack Petruccelle (Vic Metro) 74cm
Noah Balta (Vic Metro) 74cm
Adam Sambono (Allies) 73cm
Hayden McLean (Vic Metro) 73cm

Running vertical jump
Kyron Hayden (Western Australia) 103cm – NEW RECORD
Kane Farrell (Vic Country) 95cm
Jordan Houlahan (South Australia) 95cm
Hayden McLean (Vic Metro) 92cm
Noah Balta (Vic Metro) 89cm
Harrison Jones (Vic Country) 88cm
Oscar Allen (Western Ausralia) 88cm
Tom McCartin (Vic Country) 88cm
Matthew Day (Vic Metro) 87cm
Nathan Kreuger (South Australia) 87cm

 

[JrDr]

Last update, top 10 from every test, players sorted by number of top 10's they made.

 

[ray8182]

Does Richmonds premiership win increase the value of players with great running capacity like Brayshaw and Moore?

Richmond's premiership win was pretty amazing considering they had a whole host of players who we would think are very average. Because of this l consider it one of the better premiership wins in terms of a club getting the best out of itself.

Whilst many of the Richmond players are ordinary with ball in hand they are elite without the ball. They do there best work without the ball. The number of times Richmond just hacked the ball forward with no skill and then just out competed and pressured the opposition into submission was incredible. I kept thinking they would fade in the second half of games because they wouldn't be able to keep it up. But instead they just ran over every team. Nobody could deal with the constant pressure all game which was in part due to the above average running capacity of many of there players.

Now this brings me back to Moore and Brayshaw. The value on players with greater running capacity and theoretically the ability to apply more pressure for longer may increase. Does Carlton prioritise these sorts who not only look like good footballers but also have elite endurance?




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[Sector 7G]

From the photo in the Age this morning it looks like Stephenson has cut his hair short. Much happier with him at 3 now. Didn't want him with the dreadful pony tail

 

[HARKER]

From the photo in the Age this morning it looks like Stephenson has cut his hair short. Much happier with him at 3 now. Didn't want him with the dreadful pony tail

He's been playing with that cut for some time now.
It's the Geelong boys you should worry about.

 

[reubsblues]

Would still rather Brayshaw and Coffield than just Dow/LDU, but I doubt the trade would happen.

There's a minor drop-off after the first few, but it's marginal.

I think we'll end up with Cerra or Dow, after Rayner and LDU are taken.

I agree i would have 2 of Higgins, Fogarty, Brayshaw, Coffield or Constable over just Dow or Cerra everyday

 

[HARKER]

I agree i would have 2 of Higgins, Fogarty, Brayshaw, Coffield or Constable over just Dow or Cerra everyday

Maybe we would, but why would The Saints want to do that deal?
They need coverage as much as we do and maybe even more so.

If SOS can snag what he sees as being the best player in the draft, he should simply do so.

 

[reubsblues]

Maybe we would, but why would The Saints want to do that deal?
They need coverage as much as we do and maybe even more so.

If SOS can snag what he sees as being the best player in the draft, he should simply do so.

I got out of the sos interview that we possibly would be looking at pick swaps so you never know

 

[Sector 7G]

Having watched Fogarty live once and 2 games in the champs I fail to see any compelling reason why he will be an AFL footballer. If we were to trade for the Saints picks he would be very much down the list of player I would hope to draft.

 

[La Dispute]

Maybe we would, but why would The Saints want to do that deal?
They need coverage as much as we do and maybe even more so.

If SOS can snag what he sees as being the best player in the draft, he should simply do so.

Talking hypothetically of course. Would love Brayshaw to be around that range, but I reckon he'll end up going in the Top 7. I can't see too many weaknesses with him. Maybe pace? But he still gets around the ground pretty well. He seems to assess very, very quickly, and he's generally in the right spot anyway. His disposal looks better than Dow's, but Dow goes for riskier kicks.

Very happy to have an early pick as at gives as a heap of options, and we don't need to have contingencies - just know exactly what we're looking for at that pick and nail it.