Predict the bottom four at the end of 2018

[Sweet Jesus]

Self-explanatory. I wonder how many dinguses would have tipped Richmond had this thread been around 12 months ago. Probably quite a few.

I'm going for GC, North, Brisbane and Carlton. Supremely unimaginative, right?

 

[donkeypunchd]

Gonna go out on a limb here and say the Saints, they lost a lot of class and experience with their retirements at the end of this year and are relying on the draft to make good on their losses. McCartin doesn't look the goods yet to step into Riewoldt's shoes, their midfield lacks polish and their game plan is one dimensional, if the opposition can counter their pace effectively they've nothing to fall back on.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

Carlton look like a shoe in now they've lost Docherty for a year, so Brisbane Carlton North and Hawthorn for mine in no particular order.

Other chances are Collingwood - Freo - GC.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Gonna go out on a limb here and say the Saints, they lost a lot of class and experience with their retirements at the end of this year and are relying on the draft to make good on their losses. McCartin doesn't look the goods yet to step into Riewoldt's shoes, their midfield lacks polish and their game plan is one dimensional, if the opposition can counter their pace effectively they've nothing to fall back on.

Neither Riewoldt nor Montagna came top 10 in our B&F this year (Nick didn't even finish top 15, which tells you how far off his best he was- last year he came 3rd and got 19 Brownlow votes!), and between them they received just a paltry 5 of the 235 coaches votes that those from our team were awarded in our last 10 wins.

So they were clearly well short of their highly influential best of years past, and as such it's entirely possible that we were more adversely affected by their drop off this year than we will be for losing them altogether for next year.

By the end of the year Joey was already out of the team (we won two of our last 5 without him, and lost another in the last few seconds) and Nick was pretty much cooked.

As for "replacing them", David Armitage played just 2 games for the year, so he could replace one of them, if he's back to full fitness, McCartin played just 5, and the very talented Nathan Freeman and Hugh Goddard didn't play a game between them, so those 4 could potentially all be like "new recruits", fitness pending. On top of whoever we get with picks 7 and 8 in the draft, who could be a fair chance of playing plenty in 2018.

Then we've got a huge chunk of our list who are 24yo and under and likely to be better for having another preseason under their belts, and a bunch of our 25yo and over group who would be looking to bounce back from their disappointing seasons this year.

So things would have to go pretty disastrously for us to drop back to the bottom 4, even with our very difficult draw.

 

[blitzer]

North, Carlton and Gold Coast are all extremely likely.

Most people would pick Brisbane as the 4th team but I believe they are on the up and will rise above bottom 4 this year. Personally I reckon it will be a dark horse so I've gone Hawthorn but really a lot of teams could finish in that spot with a bad injury run.

 

[citizen-erased]

Three seem obvious enough in north, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Just where they are at for the moment, though the lions may surprise.

I reluctantly put Carlton in despite building a good young list. It's still young, have lost Gibbs and docherty, and I think the 2 WA teams (who I'm predicting low finishes for) will still have that home town edge to keep them out of the bottom 4.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

North and Gold Coast are locks.

Docherty out hurts the blues but i wouldnt guarentee it. Cant tell you the remaining two. Will be an interesting year.

 

[Power Raid]

north
GC
with two of the hawks, blues or my beloved freo

 

[Great8]

Freo
Gold Coast
North
Carlton

 

[Drewie11]

18th Brisbane
17th Carlton
16th Gold Coast
15th North Melbourne

 

[Strange Cat]

CARLTON
Collingwood
Hawks
Brisbane

 

[bugalugs213]

Brisbane
North
Carlton
West coast

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

15 - Carlton
16 - Brisbane
17 - North
18 - Gold Coast

 

[Dez!]

North and Gold Coast are locks.

Docherty out hurts the blues but i wouldnt guarentee it. Cant tell you the remaining two. Will be an interesting year.

I would guarantee it, I don't see a team who turned over 13 players making any strides on the W/L column the next season.

You've lost Gibbs who played very well last year and added potential to your midfield to replace him, which is an unknown (obviously made the right move but a step backwards to go two steps forward in the future)

Losing Docherty is a big big blow.

Your forward line is still potential and not yet experienced enough to make a consistent impact.

Backline is pretty good but the shallow midfield stocks the Blues currently possess isn't going to lend itself to winning games, the right moves were made during the trade period but they weren't made looking for immediate improvement in 2018.

The Blues are still gathering as much talent as they can, they aren't going to leave the bottom 4 next year.

 

[sobrave]

Richmond a sneaky chance

 

[demondavey]

Self-explanatory. I wonder how many dinguses would have tipped Richmond had this thread been around 12 months ago. Probably quite a few.

I'm going for GC, North, Brisbane and Carlton. Supremely unimaginative, right?

So they're dinguses because they picked Richmond 12 months ago when absolutely everyone would've gone with them for the obvious reasons?

 

[demondavey]

It'd be pretty safe to pick GC, Brisbane, North and Carlton. I think that out of those 4 probably 3 would be there, I can however see North or Brisbane climbing out at the expense of another team that may surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if West Coast or Hawthorn had a shocker in 2018.

 

[demondavey]

Neither Riewoldt nor Montagna came top 10 in our B&F this year (Nick didn't even finish top 15, which tells you how far off his best he was- last year he came 3rd and got 19 Brownlow votes!), and between them they received just a paltry 5 of the 235 coaches votes that those from our team were awarded in our last 10 wins.

So they were clearly well short of their highly influential best of years past, and as such it's entirely possible that we were more adversely affected by their drop off this year than we will be for losing them altogether for next year.

By the end of the year Joey was already out of the team (we won two of our last 5 without him, and lost another in the last few seconds) and Nick was pretty much cooked.

As for "replacing them", David Armitage played just 2 games for the year, so he could replace one of them, if he's back to full fitness, McCartin played just 5, and the very talented Nathan Freeman and Hugh Goddard didn't play a game between them, so those 4 could potentially all be like "new recruits", fitness pending. On top of whoever we get with picks 7 and 8 in the draft, who could be a fair chance of playing plenty in 2018.

Then we've got a huge chunk of our list who are 24yo and under and likely to be better for having another preseason under their belts, and a bunch of our 25yo and over group who would be looking to bounce back from their disappointing seasons this year.

So things would have to go pretty disastrously for us to drop back to the bottom 4, even with our very difficult draw.

Haven't seen your draw but assume it would be decent? I don't think the Saints will be bottom 4, I actually think they may finish anywhere between 8-11.

 

[PowerForGood]

Injuries, suspensions, fixture and umpiring in close games.








Sorry, that's the why, not the who.

 

[Rance2Mewtwo]

Gonna go out on a limb here and say the Saints, they lost a lot of class and experience with their retirements at the end of this year and are relying on the draft to make good on their losses. McCartin doesn't look the goods yet to step into Riewoldt's shoes, their midfield lacks polish and their game plan is one dimensional, if the opposition can counter their pace effectively they've nothing to fall back on.

I think the Saints will be pushing top 4, they’re hard to read though.

 

[Milanista28]

If this Raikkonen kid is as good as they say, Finishing last would be Ok.

 

[DEVO]

18th Richmond
17th Carlton
16th Gold Coast
15th Brisbane

 

[The_torpedo]

If think Raikkonen kid is as good as they say, Finnishing last would be Ok.

FTFY

 

[WilloTree]

If this Raikkonen kid is as good as they say, Finishing last would be Ok.

That would be OK with me as well.

 

[Craze]

18th Richmond
17th Carlton
16th Gold Coast
15th Brisbane

Fair call. I saw some bad signs in the last five minutes of the granny when Adelaide started to get on top (and kept Richmond scoreless)