Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Blue and Silver]

So I did a quick check.

In 12 of 22 games we led at some point in the last quarter.

We won 7 games.

There is a fairly reasonable scope for improvement there.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You won't find a bigger Bolton fan then me but if we finish at the bottom of the ladder again and performances don't really improve of course he will be under huge pressure. He is still an unproven coach as much as we all love him.

 

[Ken Navies]

I second that.
I jumped out of ship without a lifeboat.

Shouldn’t got on it man...

 

[F_therest]

You won't find a bigger Bolton fan then me but if we finish at the bottom of the ladder again and performances don't really improve of course he will be under huge pressure. He is still an unproven coach as much as we all love him.

Agree there will be some pressure IF it happens but it shouldn't be anything job threatening.

We can all see our style of play has improved and he's had to oversee a period of drastic list changes with the team becoming very young...next year is the year we need to absolutely see big improvement i'm talking top 8 or close to it otherwise the pressure will really be on.

 

[therubbernub]

Sooooo............I'm in charge?

 

[therubbernub]

So I did a quick check.

In 12 of 22 games we led at some point in the last quarter.

We won 7 games.

There is a fairly reasonable scope for improvement there.

yes but : Did we lead at some point in the final quarter in the games that we won?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

You won't find a bigger Bolton fan then me but if we finish at the bottom of the ladder again and performances don't really improve of course he will be under huge pressure. He is still an unproven coach as much as we all love him.

We won't finish on the bottom. But I wouldn't expect much if I were you. We've replaced Gibbs with Dow and O'Brien. We've lost Docherty. Simmo is another year older, we already saw him drop form this year, I'd only expect that to continue. Bit of the same from Murphy.

MK is still crucial for us, we were lucky he remained injury free this year. Let's hope he can next year as well.

Of course, there'll be natural improvement from all of our other youngsters to help balance it out, but I'm still expecting bottom 5.

 

[Jimmae]

Sounds like you are putting Lang ahead of kennedy? Or have I misinterpreted?

I think Kennedy needs to make a jump fitness-wise, and while he'll have all of the pre-season comp to prove himself, I'm yet to be convinced that he's a certain starter for round 1.

Lang, on the other hand, is fit and slots straight in.

 

[Gethelred]

We won't finish on the bottom. But I wouldn't expect much if I were you. We've replaced Gibbs with Dow and O'Brien. We've lost Docherty. Simmo is another year older, we already saw him drop form this year, I'd only expect that to continue. Bit of the same from Murphy.

MK is still crucial for us, we were lucky he remained injury free this year. Let's hope he can next year as well.

Of course, there'll be natural improvement from all of our other youngsters to help balance it out, but I'm still expecting bottom 5.

I'd argue that we've replaced Gibbs with Kennedy and Lang, where Dow and O'Brien are free hits in terms of input next year. If they two come on immediately, all to the good; if it takes a bit more time, then that's what it takes to get a game in the ones now.

Docherty's value to the backline isn't in his raw statistics - plenty of players can play a loose running back - it's in his organisation ability on the fly, capable of behaving like an on ground defense coach. We'll miss him absolutely, but when we moved him into the middle Plowman did this while playing a different role; he wasn't as good at it, but our backline still functioned (until Geelong exploited Liam Jones's inability to get up and down the ground with Hawkins). Provided the midfield is better able to acquit themselves this year - by virtue of more people playing a role over a few good players smashing it - the backline will miss Doc, but it won't be crippling.

Kruez is important, but I'm going to kill Bambi a bit here; a ruckman just isn't that important a position at AFL level anymore, and regardless of how good he is at playing that bullocking role - tapping the ball to advantage off the ground rather than in the air - we have inside midfielders to get the ball out, so why are we using a ruckman to do it? Phillips and Lobbe are adequate cover, and again, while he'd be a loss, it wouldn't be a killing blow either.

Gibbs out is the biggest issue, but between Kennedy, Lang, Cripps (returning), Murphy, SPS, and Ed Curnow, we should have his clearance/contested ball contributions covered by osmosis rather than individually; his outside play, again, should be covered by Pickett, Garlett, Dow, SPS, Wright, Williamson, Simpson. What we'll really miss is his goals, but the goals should be coming from the forwards before the midfield anyway.

I've already made my expectations clear; I'll be disappointed if we win less than 8-10 games and haven't cultivated an attacking edge to go with the thrifty defence we've already seen. Melbourne are in the place they're in now due to the false start of their rebuild, and they're still struggling to win games they should win; it is about drawing the line, and being unable to consistently accept defeat, being unwilling to lose past a certain point. It is about cultivating pride in the playing group, and using that pride to win.

 

[Azzurro]

yes but : Did we lead at some point in the final quarter in the games that we won?

We lost 6 games last year, where we were in front at some stage in the last.

 

[Azzurro]

yes but : Did we lead at some point in the final quarter in the games that we won?

Wait a minute....

 

[katmanblue]

Wright goes all Wright

Same as this guy?

 

[katmanblue]

Sooooo............I'm in charge?

Inmate running the asylum.

Be afraid.

 

[katmanblue]

We need a Thomas replacement?

I'm hoping Polson is our Murphy replacement. Give him 2 years gather some momentum.

 

[katmanblue]

Agree. Playing the kids brings inconsistency but they held it together in most games last year. If they put it together in a game we can beat anyone.

Bolton and Co have done a brilliant job so far keeping the side competitive whilst still developing. Very underrated what has been achieved. 2018 is the year where the reliance on Murphy Curnow Simpson Kruezer starts to shift and the kids start taking over. I expect Cripps Weitering Marchbank Plowman Kennedy to take more of a leadership role on game day and mostly by example.

There is genuine "elite" talent in Charlie SPS Dow Pickett Weitering Marchbank maybe McKay, and the rest aren't bad either. It's as good as any list in the comp. It's just about being in games and getting games into these kids. In a year or so watch out.

No mention of Le Bois? You are slipping Soap.

 

[ray8182]

Its not about wins and losses, its about how we play.

There are no internal expectations on Bolton. The club know where we're at. Next year is a development year. Nothing more and nothing less.

I agree. I was extremely impressed with 2017. I had lower expectations and yet, for the most part, Carlton turned up week in, week out, competing really well with a young team. I didn’t expect to be so consistently competitive.

Sure it would be good to have a couple extra wins than in 2017 , but my judgement will be based on the type of footy we play each week and not just the win loss column.


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[footyfan1978]

Shouldn’t got on it man...

You are probably right.
We live and learn.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I'd argue that we've replaced Gibbs with Kennedy and Lang, where Dow and O'Brien are free hits in terms of input next year. If they two come on immediately, all to the good; if it takes a bit more time, then that's what it takes to get a game in the ones now.

Docherty's value to the backline isn't in his raw statistics - plenty of players can play a loose running back - it's in his organisation ability on the fly, capable of behaving like an on ground defense coach. We'll miss him absolutely, but when we moved him into the middle Plowman did this while playing a different role; he wasn't as good at it, but our backline still functioned (until Geelong exploited Liam Jones's inability to get up and down the ground with Hawkins). Provided the midfield is better able to acquit themselves this year - by virtue of more people playing a role over a few good players smashing it - the backline will miss Doc, but it won't be crippling.

Kruez is important, but I'm going to kill Bambi a bit here; a ruckman just isn't that important a position at AFL level anymore, and regardless of how good he is at playing that bullocking role - tapping the ball to advantage off the ground rather than in the air - we have inside midfielders to get the ball out, so why are we using a ruckman to do it? Phillips and Lobbe are adequate cover, and again, while he'd be a loss, it wouldn't be a killing blow either.

Gibbs out is the biggest issue, but between Kennedy, Lang, Cripps (returning), Murphy, SPS, and Ed Curnow, we should have his clearance/contested ball contributions covered by osmosis rather than individually; his outside play, again, should be covered by Pickett, Garlett, Dow, SPS, Wright, Williamson, Simpson. What we'll really miss is his goals, but the goals should be coming from the forwards before the midfield anyway.

I've already made my expectations clear; I'll be disappointed if we win less than 8-10 games and haven't cultivated an attacking edge to go with the thrifty defence we've already seen. Melbourne are in the place they're in now due to the false start of their rebuild, and they're still struggling to win games they should win; it is about drawing the line, and being unable to consistently accept defeat, being unwilling to lose past a certain point. It is about cultivating pride in the playing group, and using that pride to win.

That's realistic provided we don't lose another important player or 2 due to injury.

Just on MK, he's more than just a ruckman for us and is very important. If we lose him the hitouts won't be my worry, rather his mobility, endurance and effort will not be replaced by Lobbe or Philips.

 

[footyfan1978]

Gibbs out is the biggest issue, but between Kennedy, Lang, Cripps (returning), Murphy, SPS, and Ed Curnow, we should have his clearance/contested ball contributions covered by osmosis rather than individually; his outside play, again, should be covered by Pickett, Garlett, Dow, SPS, Wright, Williamson, Simpson. What we'll really miss is his goals, but the goals should be coming from the forwards before the midfield anyway.

I swear I was looking at the stats the other day from 2017 season and correct me if I am wrong, but Pickett seemed to have quite a high contested possession percentage. If he builds a genuine tank, would not mind trying him in midfield and see how he goes.

 

[Soapy V]

I swear I was looking at the stats the other day from 2017 season and correct me if I am wrong, but Pickett seemed to have quite a high contested possession percentage. If he builds a genuine tank, would not mind trying him in midfield and see how he goes.

I reckon he’s a genuine mid and can be a very damaging one

 

[Gethelred]

I swear I was looking at the stats the other day from 2017 season and correct me if I am wrong, but Pickett seemed to have quite a high contested possession percentage. If he builds a genuine tank, would not mind trying him in midfield and see how he goes.

As far as I'm concerned, he is a midfielder, just one searching for adequate fitness to do what he can already do for longer.

May not quite get there next year, but it'll be fun watching him try.

 

[Gethelred]

That's realistic provided we don't lose another important player or 2 due to injury.

Just on MK, he's more than just a ruckman for us and is very important. If we lose him the hitouts won't be my worry, rather his mobility, endurance and effort will not be replaced by Lobbe or Philips.

It wasn't the hitouts I'm referring to; if it was, Kruez'd be pretty close to the worst main ruckman in the comp. No, I'm referring to the stuff he's good at; tackling, contested ball, being able to behave like a hybrid tall and inside midfielder, the things that set him apart from a regular ruckman.

Right now, we've a set of inside mids in Cripps, Kennedy and Curnow, with in/out mids in Murphy, SPS, Cuningham, plus a whole heap of outside support and pinch hitters; why are we using a ruckman to do what midfielders should be doing anyway? Kruezer is the difference between being a good side and a great one, not a poor to a good one; the contests he influences are more pivotal when you're needing an edge.

For me, it's not about Kreuze not being valuable, it's about his input hiding the inadequacy of others in the middle. With the spread of people that can now go through the middle, if we can't cover 16-24 possessions and 6 tackles at maximum we're in a hell of a lot of trouble.

 

[KohPhi]

You won't find a bigger Bolton fan then me but if we finish at the bottom of the ladder again and performances don't really improve of course he will be under huge pressure. He is still an unproven coach as much as we all love him.

I think the only pressure if we are bottom 4 next year will be external (media, fans). Internally, the club knows exactly where we are and need to be.
However, there will be a time when expectations will shift.

 

[Captain Cripps]

yes but : Did we lead at some point in the final quarter in the games that we won?

I would gues 12-7 so 5 games we lost whilst being in for not during 4th

 

[Captain Cripps]

I think the only pressure if we are bottom 4 next year will be external (media, fans). Internally, the club knows exactly where we are and need to be.
However, there will be a time when expectations will shift.

The shift has to be next year
We will see where some players are at a acid test if you like