Training 2017/2018 Pre-season Thread

[GrommoT]

... No point judging our effectiveness of drafting a player to us by including games after he has buggered off.

Actually, maybe games after buggering off is relevant unless you include remaining with us as a criteria for judging our drafting effectiveness.

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[fabs33]

But unlike a coin toss, a player's performance last season does have an impact on his performance next season. A player who played 20+ games in 2017 is more likely to play 20+ games in 2018 than a player of the same age with no injuries who played 0 in 2017. Footy players are not inanimate objects being tossed or some random number generator like a roulette wheel.

David Mackay has played 185 games and polled 1 Brownlow vote. Do you think the odds of him polling in his next game have not changed over the course of his career? I'd also say the odds of him polling in his next game are longer than for Sloane to do so. And that is based on the frequency with which it has happened in the past.

The odds on footy are pretty well known - Players who are picked in the first round are more likely on average to play more games than players picked in the 2nd or 3rd round. And draft picks who play 20 games in their first 2 seasons are historically more likely to have a better careers than one who has played 0 games.

The issue is when you assume the average applies to all players and assume that longer odds means 0 chance. Given their first 2 years the odds of Burton for eg playing 100 games would be shorter than for Doedee. But that doesn't mean Doedee won't play 100 games, just that you'd be more likely to bet on Burton.

I'm just noting that he is taking a more unusual route towards becoming a regular than do other first round picks.

I think given his background and injury issues his having not played any games in his first 2 years is not that big of an issue. But I maintain, if we're still having this discussion in a year's time, people who are sure he is going to be a gun will need to work a lot harder to make their case.

To be honest when I posted that I was anticipating that you would interpret it as a form of criticism of your work, but it really wasn't. The point I was making is that the performances of past players have little to no bearing on the chances of Doedee making it as they are independent of each other, so people shouldn't make the mistake of using your data on past players as a crystal ball. Doedee has his own unique set of circumstances that have resulted in him not playing any games in his first two seasons, and ultimately what will determine whether he has a successful career will be his own talent, the opportunities given to him and luck (injuries etc.). I appreciate the time and effort you took in collecting all that data, but I felt a warning was needed to avoid people forgetting that independent events don't influence probabilities. e.g. Doedee's future won't be impacted by how many games Max Bailey played.

In terms of the number of games played in the first two years having a connection to what happens in later years I agree entirely. The longer he goes without playing, the less likely he is of making it in the long run, regardless of what the reasons may be for him not playing. However, that's not relevant to the point I was making about data from past players being used in predictions for current players.

As for your overall thoughts on Doedee and the importance of this year for him, I agree there as well. An opportunity has presented itself with Lever's departure, and provided he's healthy, it's up to him to make the most of it.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

If graham showed what he showed the best team in the comp to be selected in a premiership side there would be half a dozen players

His selection was a right call he performed better than greenwood for example

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What you are & many overlook is that there's a mix required for a midfield unit ......can't have too many slow mids, too many inside mids, or outside ....too many sub 180cm or +192cm

Graham & others maybe very good players in isolation ......but do they compliment our mix ?

 

[MRB37]

If graham showed what he showed the best team in the comp to be selected in a premiership side there would be half a dozen players

His selection was a right call he performed better than greenwood for example

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

What in Pyke's selection policies makes you think he would (or should) have dropped Greenwood?

 

[Redleg Crow]

Actually, maybe games after buggering off is relevant unless you include remaining with us as a criteria for judging our drafting effectiveness.

I guess it is more I think there is the diff between looking at how good our drafting has been at finding good players, and how good it has been at leading to players being good for us

 

[Redleg Crow]

To be honest when I posted that I was anticipating that you would interpret it as a form of criticism of your work, but it really wasn't. The point I was making is that the performances of past players have little to no bearing on the chances of Doedee making it as they are independent of each other, so people shouldn't make the mistake of using your data on past players as a crystal ball. Doedee has his own unique set of circumstances that have resulted in him not playing any games in his first two seasons, and ultimately what will determine whether he has a successful career will be his own talent, the opportunities given to him and luck (injuries etc.). I appreciate the time and effort you took in collecting all that data, but I felt a warning was needed to avoid people forgetting that independent events don't influence probabilities. e.g. Doedee's future won't be impacted by how many games Max Bailey played.

In terms of the number of games played in the first two years having a connection to what happens in later years I agree entirely. The longer he goes without playing, the less likely he is of making it in the long run, regardless of what the reasons may be for him not playing. However, that's not relevant to the point I was making about data from past players being used in predictions for current players.

As for your overall thoughts on Doedee and the importance of this year for him, I agree there as well. An opportunity has presented itself with Lever's departure, and provided he's healthy, it's up to him to make the most of it.

Fair enough - I wasn't taking it personally - good discussion is good.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Selection policy is based on what they ate performing like which is why levers talent was recognised and they played him


Graham could have done to Dusty what he did to sloane for him to be played on Sloane the talent was recognised by the tigers


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That's a long bow to draw .....amazing that no-one was bemoaning the non drafting of Graham b4 the Grand Final ?

Hindsight makes us all experts

 

[MRB37]

Selection policy is based on what they ate performing like which is why levers talent was recognised and they played him


Graham could have done to Dusty what he did to sloane for him to be played on Sloane the talent was recognised by the tigers


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We sat through multiple games with the likes of Hampton, Mackay, Seedsman, JJ, Otten and CC all playing poorly because Pyke prioritized structure and consistency over short term form.

 

[cm_perfect]

Geez I miss open training sessions..

 

[Redleg Crow]

We sat through multiple games with the likes of Hampton, Mackay, Seedsman, JJ, Otten and CC all playing poorly because Pyke prioritized structure and consistency over short term form.

When did Seedsman have multiple bad games? He played Rd 18, got dropped, then played in the last round - did well. Did ok in the final against GWS, and again in the PF. s**t GF, but take a number there.

 

[Thetrader15]

Geez I miss open training sessions..

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Recycled water????

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Who's this Burton fellow you talk about?

Adelaide's football manager....

 

[MRB37]

When did Seedsman have multiple bad games? He played Rd 18, got dropped, then played in the last round - did well. Did ok in the final against GWS, and again in the PF. s**t GF, but take a number there.

In 2016 he had a few. Still stayed in the team.

 

[MRB37]

Anyway, anyone going to the AGM on the 1st of March? Jamo having his board position up for renewal too, though I dunno if anyone is going to run against him this time.

 

[cm_perfect]

Recycled water????

Rinse repeat


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[Jars458]

When does the season start? Silly season silly as ever.

 

[Mego Red]

If you want to consider how terrible a SA only recruiting policy would be, just compare a present day potential SA State of Origin team with one from the 90s.

 

[1970crow]

They're not nonsense they just need to be read in context There's no statistical bias unless you believe certain type of players who are selected in the first round are more or less likely to play over 10 games in their first 2 seasons, and there appears no evidence of that that I can see.

No stat explains everything but if you see a pattern - eg that first rounders who play fewer than 10 games in their first 2 seasons generally don't go on to have good careers, then that is worth examining. There may be good explanations - eg injury - why a player is/was an exception, but if not, you need to start really coming up with excuses for holding out hope that he will come good.

I'm not saying you cut someone on the basis of this number of games, just that it is a generally good indicator. Games played is always a pretty good indicator of how someone is doing. Now sure for eg CEY has missed a season, but he has been on the list now for 6 season and has played just 14 games. Only one other player drafted in 2011 has played fewer games and is still on a list - Fraser McInnes (Eagles)

Now maybe he'll come good this year. But cripes, history suggests if he does he will be one of the all-time late bloomers.

Simple question, every year there are 18 first rounders, how many of them come from a basketball background and only 1 year of organised football since they became a teenager? The league wide stats on first rounders is completely irrelevant to Doedee's likelihood of playing games.

 

[1970crow]

So statistics are no good because they can contain statistical bias. But opinion is fine because that just includes good old fashion personal bias?

Stats are stats, they are fine for providing some insight into the norm. But they don't provide insight into situations that don't fit the norm. Doedee's background is so far from that of the ordinary first rounder, that the statistics being quoted are completely meaningless. He's a square peg amongst hundreds of round holes.

 

[Mego Red]

Marty goes bang!!!!

This needs to become a thing.

 

[1970crow]

If graham showed what he showed the best team in the comp to be selected in a premiership side there would be half a dozen players

His selection was a right call he performed better than greenwood for example

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And this is the point that you fail to comprehend. Our coaching group is not the the same as the Richmond coaching group. We preferred to play an injured Greenwood. Had our selectors had some bravery, we might be hailing Hampton, Poholke or even Milera as having stood up on GF day and performed ahead of expectations. But we'd rather go with nice guy, good story Otten and an injured Greenwood. When you hear the coaches mention the word 'continuity', do you actually know what it means and how that impacts selection?

 

[1970crow]

What in Pyke's selection policies makes you think he would (or should) have dropped Greenwood?

Nothing to suggest he would. Hugh's minute management and obvious injury is the reason that he should have not been selected.

 

[1970crow]

Selection policy is based on what they ate performing like which is why levers talent was recognised and they played him


Graham could have done to Dusty what he did to sloane for him to be played on Sloane the talent was recognised by the tigers


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Lever got his shot in round 6 of 2015. Hartigan was dropped for the showdown in round 5, we went with Talia and Cheney as our tall defenders. We played Gold Coast in round 6 and Lever earned his call up. I'm wondering if the injuries to JJ, Dougie, Hendo and CEY had anything to do with it though. The other players that came in that week were Grigg, Lyons and M Crouch elevated from the sub position. I'm not really sure it's a glowing endorsement of your, "saw talent" and played claim. More like circumstances paved the way for the kid to get a crack and he took his chance. And then, this talent that was recognised, was dropped for the elimination final after playing round 23. Hartigan was back in the side by then and it was Cheney who came back in after not having played at AFL level since round 13. They're the type of selection decisions that have been repeated over and over. When the chips are down, we play safe, no way Graham gets a go in our side as the year reaches the pointy end.

 

[Thetrader15]

Nothing to suggest he would. Hugh's minute management and obvious injury is the reason that he should have not been selected.

Problem was we had no one else to replace him with. McKay and Otten were already in the yeam and our safe selection policy throughout the year meant no one else had game time under their belt

 

[1970crow]

No he didn’t they didn’t have anyone better in their opinion

Saying that they believed lever gov CC had what it took

You have to acknowledge though their selection policy was better than 16 other teams and 17 other clubs in the home and away


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So you're now stating that every team has a list of equal quality. That's an interesting turn of events, but not surprising, you're not really a deep thinker. Remember when you were convinced that Thommo was the solution to our midfield last year. Remember that Marty, do you think that Pyke didn't know what he was doing when he didn't select Thommo?