Analysis There are 17 other teams in the comp. (opposition fans welcome for analysis)

[TheSierBear]

So everyone will have there say on who will be the bolters who is overrated and who will fall off a cliff.

I'll keep my OP brief and put it into bullet points so here goes.

• GWS will still not be the dominant force many predicted. Will still be there or there abouts but might just choke again when it counts.

• Adelaide got there pants pulled down on Grand Final day by Richmond, have been exposed like we were in 2003, I think they'll make the eight but they won't really challenge like last year.

• Sydney Hard to predict one way or another where they'll go, looked finish the first half of last year, then were clearly the best side in it for the second half and played beautiful football when they smashed Essendon in the first final, cracks are appearing, I expect them to scratch their way to the eight, maybe top four but too old to go the distance.

• Richmond I think they were the Dogs of last year, I expect a hangover not as bad, but lets be honest they weren't the best team in it.

• Port Adelaide I think they bounced back well last year, I think they could push for top four, given the comp is open they could go all the way, but they seem flaky when it counts.

• Geelong Are not in the race, forget signing up Ablett, he's just about cooked. I think they'd just about be the worst side in it if you took out Dangerfield and Selwood.

• Essendon Great spine, weak midfield and poor around the flanks even with their recruits, their last week of the preseason has been a disaster, I think they'll be also rans.

• Melbourne I'm a big fan of their list, top four this year.

• Collingwood I rate our list too, not as highly as Melbourne but we should make the eight, get on us to beat the Hawks in Round one and to make the eight. Looks like we are getting a good run with injuries hellalula.

• Dogs How did they fluke a flag? They made a number of poor list management decisions before winning one, Tom Boyd, Travis Cloke anyone? Will miss the eight.

• All the rest, including Hawthorn are not even worth talking about, except the Saints who could be a bolter in the early part of the season.

Anyways, it's mid Feb and bring on the footy.

 

[Brent24]

So are any teams going to be good?
Hate to say it, but I can see Essendon having a good season.

 

[Vicky Park]

My thoughts, based on personal prejudices:

I’ve been expecting Sydney to win the flag every year since they acquired Buddy, basically, and it hasn’t happened yet. It could be this year although the clock is ticking.

Geelong will be really annoying if the Selwood/Danger/GAJ trinity works. Really annoying. But not flag material.

Melbourne had that weird training camp fiasco, which doesn’t exactly shout ‘unity of purpose’! Then again it might have had a galvanising effect, and could spur them onto greater things.

Adelaide and Port Adelaide - there’s nearly always a SA club pushing up high into the eight, but not delivering.

Essendon I’m very wary of. I think they have the makings.

Richmond, Dogs, Saints, Hawks, GWS - no idea.

Carlton, thank God, are not part of this conversation.

As for us, who knows?

 

[frizzle]

Bombers - Recruited well. Saad & Smith will add to an already speedy line up. (1-4 for me)
Port - Also recruited well (3-6 for me)
Swans - always thereabouts (4-8 for me)
Cats - Home ground advantage is huge (4-8)
Tigers - Hangover anticipated (6-10)
Dogs - Lack KPF - (8-12)
Pies - Good mids but lack key forwards (8-12)
GWS - Need a good injury run but lots of talent (1-4)
Adelaide - Around the mark again (1-4)
Melbourne - Same as last year - (6-10)
Saints - Will miss big Nick (8-12)
Hawks - Around 10-14 for me
Blues - Bottom 2
GC - Bottom 2
Brisbane - Bottom 14-16
North - 14-16
West Coast - (8-12) Home ground will help
Freo - (10 -14) Need Fyfe, Walters & Sandilands to stay on the park)

 

[Black_White]

I have Geelong into the Grand Final.
Got plenty of star factor, which lifts the lesser players, well coached and plenty of home games.

 

[jackcass]

I've been saying for a while now I expect the top 4 to comprise GWS, the Crows, Port and Essendon.

GWS were injury ravaged in 2017. They get something like an average injury run and they'll be a lot better in 2018 despite the players who have moved on and the injury to Williams. Did really well in the draft considering where they finished so the talent will continue to emerge.

Crows will be there abouts although I doubt they'll be as good in 2018. Lost a couple of key players in Lever and Cameron and will be without Smith. Not sure about their next gen or the boost they'll get from Gibbs and Gibson.

Bumbers recruited really well. Added Smith Saad and Stringer without loosing too much. Watson will be missed as their midfield was already light on for big bodies but I think Stringer will be a more than handy replacement longer term.

Port, like the Bumbers, recruited really well adding Rockliff, Motlop, Watts, Thomas, Trengove, and McKenzie to a list which while flakey, had talent and was competitive. It's a short term move to try and garner some silverware so if they can't make it in 2018 I think they'll start to decline.

Swans, Dee's and Tigas the next level. All have question marks but all have the talent to challenge for a top 4 spot. Equally, could i miss the final 8.

Then there's a cluster of sides (Dogs, Pies, Saints, Hawks, WCE, and Cats) either on the ascent or on the decline and I don't think there's a lot separating them. It'll largely come down to luck but all could conceivably make the final 8.

The rest (Roos, Blues, Bears, GC, and Freo) are in the also rans domain. Bears could be the side that surprises among this group. Got some really good kids.

 

[Kappa]

Top 8 in no particular order

Richmond
GWS
Geelong
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
Sydney

Last spot will be hotly contested between 3-4 middling teams, probably Essendon or St Kilda make it.

 

[TheSierBear]

West Coast get a mention for being bottom four next year, not much of a home ground advantage considering it's a new ground for everyone. And they are just ordinary.

 

[Old Spice]

Bombers I see being bolters. Melbourne I think underperformed based on their list and should easily make top 8.

Everyone likes Port but I don't. I think they recruited three of the biggest flakes in the AFL in Watts, Motlop and the human corkscrew.

Not convinced about Sydney's midfield. See them around the 8, possibly dropping out. Cats, even with Ablett, should be bottom of top 8 material.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I can’t the other 17 clubs at all.

 

[Unknown Identity]

Bolters from the bottom 8.

Melbourne will make finals this year, they missed purely because we beat them in the final Round.

Natural progression from their younger brigade, particularly Oliver, and hopefully no Cancer or Deaths in the family for Hogan should see him contribute a lot more.

To top it off they added Lever.

Essendon the other team that will make finals from the bottom 8, adding 3 best 22 players and if Stringer gets his head on straight they are a massive top 4 chance.

Have the key forward, AA quality FB in Hurley, Solid midfield and Natural progression of McGrath and Parish, if they still had Ryder you would almost have them Flag favourites.

Makes it hard for us to crack the 8 as i can't see more than 2 teams dropping out of last years 8.

 

[Bad Horse]

I guess the analysis I do is

Who that finished above us do you think we can overtake

Who that finished below us do you think can overtake us

And out of those two comes the plus/minus

In the first camp I'd put hawthorn

In the second I'd put nobody yet, with a maybe on Carlton if they get it together.

So on average, Id expect us about back to 12th. In order to lift into finals consideration, we would have to outperform, and others underperform, which basically will be determined by relative injury performance first and foremost. I can see us getting to maybe 10th that way but higher is a struggle.

 

[TheSierBear]

Essendon could be very good, but their midfield is waifer thin.

Heppell, Zerrett then it falls away. Their rucks are good/ordinary, probably the best spine in the league though, Daniher and Hurley as bookends is more than impressive. They've had some setbacks the past week with Colyer and Laverde missing the start of the season and Francis might have retired from the game as of yesterday to somewhat offeset their off-season gains.


I'm definitely biased when talking about them, my most hated club, and them winning off the back of taking advantage of their systemic doping scandal which created a situation for them to exploit it to their advantage, if they somehow flagged it would make my blood boil.

 

[Maggie5]

Bombers - Recruited well. Saad & Smith will add to an already speedy line up. (1-4 for me)
Port - Also recruited well (3-6 for me)
Swans - always thereabouts (4-8 for me)
Cats - Home ground advantage is huge (4-8)
Tigers - Hangover anticipated (6-10)
Dogs - Lack KPF - (8-12)
Pies - Good mids but lack key forwards (8-12)
GWS - Need a good injury run but lots of talent (1-4)
Adelaide - Around the mark again (1-4)
Melbourne - Same as last year - (6-10)
Saints - Will miss big Nick (8-12)
Hawks - Around 10-14 for me
Blues - Bottom 2
GC - Bottom 2
Brisbane - Bottom 14-16
North - 14-16
West Coast - (8-12) Home ground will help
Freo - (10 -14) Need Fyfe, Walters & Sandilands to stay on the park)

Pretty much the same for me but only one difference - think the Saints will be up there. In fact think thay are in a better position than Melbourne.

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

Sydney are well-coached with plenty of young talent, strong chance for GF

Hate to say it, really hate to say it, but Richmond look good for top four

Don't like Adelaide, the city, had a bad experience at a bucks party there so get triggered just by writing the word

GWS - something more than injuries is amiss - they may miss their premiership window

Carlton are still completely plucked - thank God for this consolation

Frankston - welcome back, a victory for the saltoftheearth

North, who cares, ever, beige whinge beige

Collingwood 7th (no conviction but why be pessimistic in February)

 

[Old Spice]

The Saints will be like North Melbourne over the last few years, just making the weight. But not this year.

What happened to Francis yesterday MagpieBrute?

 

[TheSierBear]

The Saints will be like North Melbourne over the last few years, just making the weight. But not this year.

What happened to Francis yesterday MagpieBrute?

Has taken a break from the game with mental health issues, might have retired from the game.

 

[Soups]

Has taken a break from the game with mental health issues, might have retired from the game.

Shame about Francis. He was my favourite from that draft year, looked like he was going to be a very good player. Wonder if he’ll continue to try and find a place in SA next year or give it away altogether?

 

[TheSierBear]

Shame about Francis. He was my favourite from that draft year, looked like he was going to be a very good player. Wonder if he’ll continue to try and find a place in SA next year or give it away altogether?

Who knows, best case scenario is he's traded to Adelaide for peanuts and becomes the second coming of Jesus.

 

[Horaceg]

I don't think Richmond are that good, I think they will be thereabouts for finals but could miss.

I could be just very biased, I don't like them.

Carlton, I hope they finish second last so they also miss the number 1 draft choice next year, in fact I hope the Club goes bankrupt.

 

[Soups]

Who knows, best case scenario is he's traded to Adelaide for peanuts and becomes the second coming of Jesus.

Hopefully makes something out of himself.

Chances may be slim.

 

[35Daicos]

So everyone will have there say on who will be the bolters who is overrated and who will fall off a cliff.

I'll keep my OP brief and put it into bullet points so here goes.

When do we get to see the bullet points?!

Edit: That's better!!

 

[TheSierBear]

When do we get to see the bullet points?!

If you missed the bullet points in the OP then I suggest you go to OPSM or specsavers and get yourself some spectacles.

 

[jackcass]

Essendon could be very good, but their midfield is waifer thin.

Heppell, Zerrett then it falls away. Their rucks are good/ordinary, probably the best spine in the league though, Daniher and Hurley as bookends is more than impressive. They've had some setbacks the past week with Colyer and Laverde missing the start of the season and Francis might have retired from the game as of yesterday to somewhat offeset their off-season gains.


I'm definitely biased when talking about them, my most hated club, and them winning off the back of taking advantage of their systemic doping scandal which created a situation for them to exploit it to their advantage, if they somehow flagged it would make my blood boil.

Not too sure their midfield is any worse than 2017 when they made the 8. They've lost Watson (20 games) but little else from the midfield and I think they would assume Stringer and Smith would cover that. They'll also be able to move McGrath there this year, maybe even Parish. As you say, they are thin for depth but could look to any of the fleet of small forwards they have spending more time in there if needed.

 

[jackcass]

Shame about Francis. He was my favourite from that draft year, looked like he was going to be a very good player. Wonder if he’ll continue to try and find a place in SA next year or give it away altogether?

Never a good thing to see anyone battling with these types of issues. Didn't he want to return to SA during the trade period and the Bumbers wouldn't get the deal done, held him to his contract?