Fixture Analysis 2018: Home Ground Advantage

[Lavender Bushranger]

Home ground advantage is a myth. If a team doesnt win on the day its just because they are s**t and the other team brings far more pressure.

This reeks of someone going to the footy and screaming 'kick the bloody thing!' all day long.

Very, very short sighted and totally ignorant.


The reason home grounds, in all sports across the globe since sport was ever first played, provide such an advantage - is because when a team is at home they tend to bring far more pressure.
And when a team is away, they tend to bring less pressure.

Could be the vocal crowd, could be a comfort zone thing, could be the travel, could be any number of things. But it's a fact that since day dot, in all sports all over the world - the 'home team' has an advantage. Even in the Olympics the home team performs out of their skin.

So it's not a myth at all. It's a fact.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Home ground advantage is often overlooked, underrated, or just plain cocked up in fixture analysis. Which is strange, because it's one of the most reliable predictors. We don't know whether a team's double-up opponents will become tougher or weaker in 2018, but we do know it's always better to play interstate opponents at home.

Agreed.

And this is why I scratch my head in bemusement when seemingly intelligent people talk about having a 19 round season so everyone gets to play each other once, meaning it's a fair draw.

If you only play West Coast and Freo once, but play them in Victoria - is completely different to playing West Coast and Freo once but over there in WA.


The only way to make it 'fair' is to draw it out of a hat. It still won't be even of course - but like the barrier draw in a horse race, at least it's fair.

 

[Clems Knee]

I like the spread better but MCG/Etihad should join the +2 group. Playing at Etihad is as much disadvantage as playing at Geelong for an MCG team and visa versa. Same city but the ground is different

I wondered about that. For a while the Western Bulldogs and St. Kilda were Docklands specialists, and Richmond and Melbourne fans certainly hate seeing their teams play at Docklands. But there is no travel advantage whatsoever. With Queensland and NSW grounds and Geelong the distance between grounds is greater.

Are there any stats supporting your claim that MCG based teams get a big disadvantage when playing at Docklands? The dimensions are nowhere as different as a Kardinya Park.
http://cobbastevens.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/ground-sizes.jpg

 

[doppleganger]

Which research are you referring to here?

Stuff done by matter of stats, was a few years ago now...2012 or 2013, will try dig it out...a few pieces where he modelled venue specific advantage

 

[theyellowsash]

I wondered about that. For a while the Western Bulldogs and St. Kilda were Docklands specialists, and Richmond and Melbourne fans certainly hate seeing their teams play at Docklands. But there is no travel advantage whatsoever. With Queensland and NSW grounds and Geelong the distance between grounds is greater.

Are there any stats supporting your claim that MCG based teams get a big disadvantage when playing at Docklands? The dimensions are nowhere as different as a Kardinya Park.
http://cobbastevens.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/ground-sizes.jpg

as someone who lives in melbourne and travelled to geelong every day for uni, i can tell you that there are large areas of melbourne where its quicker to drive to KP than to the mcg or etihad. a 1 hour drive doesnt qualify as a travel disadvantage in either direction.

 

[CrowsFlag2018]

This reeks of someone going to the footy and screaming 'kick the bloody thing!' all day long.

Very, very short sighted and totally ignorant.


The reason home grounds, in all sports across the globe since sport was ever first played, provide such an advantage - is because when a team is at home they tend to bring far more pressure.
And when a team is away, they tend to bring less pressure.

Could be the vocal crowd, could be a comfort zone thing, could be the travel, could be any number of things. But it's a fact that since day dot, in all sports all over the world - the 'home team' has an advantage. Even in the Olympics the home team performs out of their skin.

So it's not a myth at all. It's a fact.

This was a sarcastic dig at what Tigers fans were saying post GF, particularly those suggesting they would have won at AO too cos it makes no difference

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

This was a sarcastic dig at what Tigers fans were saying post GF, particularly those suggesting they would have won at AO too cos it makes no difference

Well don't I just look like a flog.

 

[Clems Knee]

Stuff done by matter of stats, was a few years ago now...2012 or 2013, will try dig it out...a few pieces where he modelled venue specific advantage

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...923a1eebd/1509424572024/HGAs.png?format=1500w
This is up to date for the end of the 2017 season. It only takes 4 games at a venue to get a result so statistically I’m pretty sure the results mean very little.

 

[CrowsFlag2018]

Well don't I just look like a flog.

Not really - your post was completely right.

 

[AdamE89]

HAWTHORN 2012

-1 GAMES (x7)
R6: St Kilda @ M.C.G. (VIC)

Minus for that,WTF?