List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)

[Blue_Fusion]

I think we’re a massive chance of taking the KPP again. Simply because not all picks are first rounders and your scenario doesn’t account for any mids or otherwise taken anywhere except the top of the first round.

Of course we're a massive chance Lukosius is an extremely talented footballer.

BTW I did mention taking mids with our 2nd rounders this year as well.

I'm just saying, a talent like Rankine will likely not be available past the top 5 picks.

 

[Jimmae]

I haven't lost my s**t over any post. Why are people so precious on here? Can you just tell me, what makes you think I'm losing my s**t over posts? Is it because I disagree with you and a few others?

I'm not here to drop a couple of lines each post and piss off. My posts are often lengthy because I back up what I say with what I believe to be solid reasoning.

Gaff alone isn't going to turn our midfield into the elite machine that we need it to be. BTW your plan doesn't exactly include Gaff either:



Adding 'maybe Gaff or Guthrie' + some bargain trades is not the recipe for a strong midfield imo.

You conveniently left out the GWS trade I flagged, and fact of the matter is we'll be getting in the Hickmott kid, a running mid, as well as having two other picks in the 20-35 range.

Taking a tall with our first rounder in a top 10 littered with quality talls is not a bad thing, taking a midfield type just for the sake of it is.

As for losing your s**t, you're rolling off the posts in this thread today and tonight, as well as your reasoning not being half as solid as you think. You're yet to outline a hypothetical or methodology that underpins why passing over mids with our first pick is a terrible list management decision.

 

[goBlue]

There not exactly prove good players.

 

[Arr0w]

A quick top 10, as of now (Not including F/S, Academy, NGA)

Lukosius
Rozee
Walsh
B. King
M. King
Rankine
Bytel
Caldwell
Hately
Smith

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Danger, Dusty, Shiel, Kelly, Coniglio, J.Selwood, Cripps, B.Crouch, Petracca all early picks

Ablett was F/S. The Cats also played a few games to 'hide' him away iirc. JP Kennedy, also a F/S as was T.Mitchell.

But you pretty much listed Sydney's midfield.

Don't forget there are many more mids playing the game, so there's more of a chance that you'll see some of the later picks excel at AFL.

Tell me one pick 30+ mid that Carlton has drafted that has become an A grader? I doubt you'll find one. Therefore, we can't rely on that strategy.

Took me a minute to get back to this... Titchell could've been nid on earlier, fact is he wasnt. Here are a few more seeing as you want variety:
Adelaide
MCrouch 23
Atkins 81
Lyons 61
Sloane 44
Vince 32
Laird Rookie

Brisbane
Yeo 30
Rischitelli 61

Collingwood
Beams 29
Swan 58
Davis 34
Sidebottom 11

Essendon
Merrett 26
Zaharakis 23

Fremantle
Neale 58
Barlow Rookie
Fyfe 20
Walters 53
Mundy 19

Geelong
Menegola 66
Duncan 28
Motlop 39
Stevie J 24
Kelly 17
Hunt 44
Chapman 31
Ling 38

Hawthorn
Hill 33
Smith 19
Shiels 34
S. Mitchell 36

North
Swallow 43

Port
Gray 55
D. Pearce Rookie

Richmond
Lambert rookie
Butler 67
Edwards 26

St Kilda
Newnes 37
Ross 25
Steven 42
Fisher 55
Montagna 37

Sydney
Parker 40
Hannebery 30
Jack 58
Schneider 60

West Coast
Shuey 18
Priddis Rookie
Embley 57
Kerr 18

Bulldogs
Hunter 49
Dalhaus Rookie
Wallis 22
Liberatore 41
Picken rookie
Ward 19
Hill 61
M. Boyd Rookie
Cross 56
Giansiracusa 32

Some of the best mids of all time have come from the pointy end of the draft but surely you can see now that the pointy end isn't the only place and that we *need* to start finding long term midfielders with these later picks, rookie selections included. I guess its also worth pointing out that a lot of picks since 2010 have been in compromised drafts where they could've been taken even later if the drafts weren't compromised...

 

[Kreuz Control]

I think we’re a massive chance of taking the KPP again. Simply because not all picks are first rounders and your scenario doesn’t account for any mids or otherwise taken anywhere except the top of the first round.

SOS does love his talls, wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[Arr0w]

Took me a minute to get back to this... Titchell could've been nid on earlier, fact is he wasnt. Here are a few more seeing as you want variety:
Adelaide
MCrouch 23
Atkins 81
Lyons 61
Sloane 44
Vince 32
Laird Rookie

Brisbane
Yeo 30
Rischitelli 61

Collingwood
Beams 29
Swan 58
Davis 34
Sidebottom 11

Essendon
Merrett 26
Zaharakis 23

Fremantle
Neale 58
Barlow Rookie
Fyfe 20
Walters 53
Mundy 19

Geelong
Menegola 66
Duncan 28
Motlop 39
Stevie J 24
Kelly 17
Hunt 44
Chapman 31
Ling 38

Hawthorn
Hill 33
Smith 19
Shiels 34
S. Mitchell 36

North
Swallow 43

Port
Gray 55
D. Pearce Rookie

Richmond
Lambert rookie
Butler 67
Edwards 26

St Kilda
Newnes 37
Ross 25
Steven 42
Fisher 55
Montagna 37

Sydney
Parker 40
Hannebery 30
Jack 58
Schneider 60

West Coast
Shuey 18
Priddis Rookie
Embley 57
Kerr 18

Bulldogs
Hunter 49
Dalhaus Rookie
Wallis 22
Liberatore 41
Picken rookie
Ward 19
Hill 61
M. Boyd Rookie
Cross 56
Giansiracusa 32

Some of the best mids of all time have come from the pointy end of the draft but surely you can see now that the pointy end isn't the only place and that we *need* to start finding long term midfielders with these later picks, rookie selections included. I guess its also worth pointing out that a lot of picks since 2010 have been in compromised drafts where they could've been taken even later if the drafts weren't compromised...

Finally, someone making sense

 

[Blue_Fusion]

You conveniently left out the GWS trade I flagged, and fact of the matter is we'll be getting in the Hickmott kid, a running mid, as well as having two other picks in the 20-35 range.

Taking a tall with our first rounder in a top 10 littered with quality talls is not a bad thing, taking a midfield type just for the sake of it is.

So all you can gather is that I'm saying we should take a mid just for the sake of it? LOL have you even read my posts?

You didn't flag any particular GWS trade, you said that we might be able to get one of the mids they don't want. Who's that? Hopper? At least drop a name or two who you think we'd target.

The Hickmott kid + the other 2 picks are massive unknowns. Saying that they'll be part of a strong Carlton midfield is pure wishful thinking at this stage.

As for losing your s**t, you're rolling off the posts in this thread today and tonight, as well as your reasoning not being half as solid as you think. You're yet to outline a hypothetical or methodology that underpins why passing over mids with our first pick is a terrible list management decision.

Really? So because you don't think my reasoning is solid and I'm involved in a lengthy discussion that means I'm losing my s**t? LOL.

I guess we're all losing our s**t on this site then. Unless of course, if we post off topic crap that derails threads into pun games or continues long running jokes that anyone who doesn't partake in is sick to death of.

I've detailed at length why it may not be a wise decision and it's as clear as daylight anyway. I never said it's a terrible list management decision. At least get your facts right please. I said it would be irresponsible to keep drafting kpf's every year over mids if the players were rated at a similar level.

I've already told you that I rate Lukosius very highly and would love to have him at Carlton.

But we need to think about the bigger picture. We will 100% be taking Ben this year as well. That's 2 out of our first 4 picks that will be spent of KPF if we go the Lukosius path.

So I'm sorry if it upsets you, but the reality is, we cannot rely solely on two 2nd rounders and 'maybe Gaff or Guthrie' and a mid that GWS doesn't rate as highly as their others to become a strong midfield.

We've even had people on the Lukosius bandwagon saying we've still got Lang and Garlett to play in the middle. I mean come on, those 2 will be depth mids.

 

[Soapy V]

Soapy, hope we are not using one game to justify small forward lines

No. Not advocating any style. SOS needs to give Bolton a balanced list with as many very good to elite players as possible. The game will always change and adapt. We need balance and options.

I think we are a couple of gun mids short of being a great list BUT who we get at Pick 2 will be decided upon who SOS believes is the best player and how we finish the year and what we do in the FA/Draft period. Like last year I will sit back and watch SOS do his thing and be happy with another 8-10 exciting players added to this possible great list

 

[Soapy V]

Kelly won’t be a free agent at the end of this contract, he was drafted same year as Cripps.

Yep. I would still throw big money at him and be happy to trade a couple fo first rounders at the end of 2019 for him. Cream on the cake

 

[rog1995]

Would SOS trade a potential number one pick for two 1st rounders?

 

[Arr0w]

Would SOS trade a potential number one pick for two 1st rounders?

Doubt it, but what he may do is use that to trade in a player of quality and shuffle back a couple of spots

 

[TooBlue14]

A quick top 10, as of now (Not including F/S, Academy, NGA)

Lukosius
Rozee
Walsh
B. King
M. King
Rankine
Bytel
Caldwell
Hately
Smith

Is this the order coz ben won’t be getting picked in front of max.

 

[Arr0w]

Is this the order coz ben won’t be getting picked in front of max.

Yes in order, 1 - 10

And why won't Ben be selected before Max?

 

[TooBlue14]

Yes in order, 1 - 10

And why won't Ben be selected before Max?

Ben being the key defender probsbly goes between 7-12 and max will go in the top 3 being the second best forward in the draft. Kicked a bag a few weeks back like 8.6 or something. His issue is accuracy but he gets to a lot of contests.

 

[TooBlue14]

Why do you have rankine so low. He’s suspended for the first 3 rounds due to striking late last season and therefore isn’t on anyone’s radar at the moment but he will prove a lot of doubters when he returns. Will have to be in the conversation for 1.

 

[Arr0w]

Ben being the key defender probsbly goes between 7-12 and max will go in the top 3 being the second best forward in the draft. Kicked a bag a few weeks back like 8.6 or something. His issue is accuracy but he gets to a lot of contests.

So you are basing it on 2 games this year?

IMO Ben is the better player and throughout their junior careers Ben has kicked more goals and is the better forward.

To fit both boys in at the Dragons, Max is played forward, while Ben can play both ends

 

[Arr0w]

Why do you have rankine so low. He’s suspended for the first 3 rounds due to striking late last season and therefore isn’t on anyone’s radar at the moment but he will prove a lot of doubters when he returns. Will have to be in the conversation for 1.

Isn't on anyone's radar?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Took me a minute to get back to this... Titchell could've been nid on earlier, fact is he wasnt. Here are a few more seeing as you want variety:

Some of the best mids of all time have come from the pointy end of the draft but surely you can see now that the pointy end isn't the only place and that we *need* to start finding long term midfielders with these later picks, rookie selections included. I guess its also worth pointing out that a lot of picks since 2010 have been in compromised drafts where they could've been taken even later if the drafts weren't compromised...

Look, I applaud your effort to compile that list, but it wasn't necessary. I'm well aware of these mids being taken at later stages just like I'm well aware that early draft picks aren't the be all and end all of acquiring young talent.

I think maybe you're missing my point. What I'm saying is, earlier draft picks generally mean you have a greater chance at getting a highly talented player. We all know there have been multiple busts at every pick in the top 10. However, I would much rather bet on an earlier pick becoming a success for us than a later pick.

Just because we can get a decent mid later in the draft, doesn't mean we will. Both Carlton and SOS have not done it yet. Therefore it isn't a reliable strategy.

Could you imagine Bolton and/or SOS saying "don't worry people, we'll just pick up a few diamonds in the rough using our later picks in the draft to build an elite midfield". It doesn't make sense.

We need to build our midfield into an elite machine and just can't bank on that tactic to do it because the success to fail ratio is significantly in the -ve. I could easily list WAY more than the 60 mids you've listed that were taken with later picks and weren't a success.

I also find it weird that some people have full faith that SOS will land a gun mid with a later draft pick, but do you have that same faith in Harry McKay to become our full forward?

The Hawks lost the best key forward of the modern era for peanuts (relatively speaking) and still won 2 flags in a row after that. The Tigers did it last year. Bulldogs did it the year before (and yes I know Boyd was the match winner in the grand final, but they got their without him doing much). The Cats won 3 flags with guys like Mooney, Podsiadley and Hawkins. The Pies did it with Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes LOL. West Coast did it with Quinten freaking Lynch as their main target. Now, here's the kicker, with all of those teams, their midfield was more the reason they won flags than their key forwards.

So, tell me, does only draft history count as a reliable fact sheet or are you also willing to count actual on field AFL success?

 

[rog1995]

If we're talking S.A. teams hunting Rankine or Lukocius, it's going to be very difficult.
Adelaide don't hold a first rounder and Port are likely to have their first in the teens.

I can't see SOS wanting to trade into 2019 selections somehow, either.
Trading out of 2019 selections, if the right deal is manufactured, but not trading into it, would be my feeling.

Who else currently has 2 first rounders next year? Melbourne do, as do GC I think.
At this early stage, it seems it may be too difficult a task trying to obtain two top ten picks for a one or two, if we did indeed land one of those.

Don't Adelaide have two first rounders? With the prospect of Sloane leaving potentially add a third?

 

[TooBlue14]

So you are basing it on 2 games this year?

IMO Ben is the better player and throughout their junior careers Ben has kicked more goals and is the better forward.

To fit both boys in at the Dragons, Max is played forward, while Ben can play both ends

Whereas knightmare thinks ben is not the better forward and will be a defender maybe pinch hit like a harry Taylor.

 

[TooBlue14]

Isn't on anyone's radar?

Maybe I didn’t word it very well. He’s slightly dropped off in comparison to others like king, Walsh, rozzee and lukosius but once her returns things will change.

 

[Arr0w]

Whereas knightmare thinks ben is not the better forward and will be a defender maybe pinch hit like a harry Taylor.

I respect Knightmare for the amount of work he does, but like every recruiter and phantom drafter, they are not always right.

Go watch some junior games, or get a reply of the games and starting forming an opinion on what you see rather than what you read. As other research, take into account what these kids have done over the last 2 years, then determine if they have developed, or determine how much development is left

 

[therubbernub]

If lukosius has elite fitness in the nick riewaldt mold, and is listed at 194 cm vs cripps at 195cm and charlie at 194cm, then he is arguably going to be playing like these 3 players as well. Namely as a hybrid forward MIDFIELDER. So in discussions about taking a forward or mid, there has to be acknowledgment that Lukosius could possibly tick both boxes like charlie.
I could definitely see Sos licking his lips at the prospect of having charlie , lukosius and cripps as our triple hybrids that provide marking power , run and grunt around the stoppages. In the case of charlie and lukosius, they have elite disposal Which gives our forwards a huge advantage.

 

[HARKER]

Don't Adelaide have two first rounders? With the prospect of Sloane leaving potentially add a third?

Got it completely arse-around between Adelaide & Melbourne.
It's Melbourne that haven't the first rounder....ooops...carry on...