Analysis 2018 v 2017 YOY comparison - are we really getting better?

[lioninthesand]

I did a quick 'key stat'... us vs opponent differential between this year and last to see if there has been improvement and this is an overview. This is the differential between us and our opponent for each game, not just a direct comparison between our numbers, if that makes sense. It was quick so a few calculations might be slightly off.

Comparison of last year and this year at the same stage -

On 2017 we are currently...

Score -15
Contested possession +3
Clearences +16
Inside 50 +46
Disposals +21
Time in possesion +19%

(Just to be clear - if you take our inside 50 for example - if you compare the differential in our first 5 games this year, we are 46 entries better off, in comparison to our opponents numbers, than we were this time last year, it doesent mean we have 46 more entries than our opponents this year)

For interests sake, if we remove the tigers game (amazingly we go back in one stat and the only big change is score, it was an incredibly close stat line for a 93 point loss).. then we have this..

Score +79
Contested possession +15
Clearences +13
Inside 50 +60
Disposals +34
Time in possesion +25%

There is improvement there, inside 50s are a huge indicator.. 46 more times (in comparison to oppo v us) we have put the ball in a position to score in 5 weeks, 60 if you remove the Tigers debacle and we have had an increase of 19% in the amount of time we have possesion of the ball on last year. Things got really ugly at times over the next 6-8 weeks last year, so if we maintain these performances we are on track for marked improvement year on year, we just need those intermitant wins for that 'emotional nurishment'.. the best bit is, our kids are leading this improvement..

 

[snooplions]

Our defence has shown a lot of improvement this year. Highest score against us 110, I think the average score against us is 98. Far cry from the Leppitsch days of 130+ every week.

 

[dlanod]

Our defence has shown a lot of improvement this year. Highest score against us 110, I think the average score against us is 98. Far cry from the Leppitsch days of 130+ every week.

It's crazy to think that is the case, while we're also leaking two to four goals a game of crappy turn-over/walk-in goals. It's really promising if we can dial down the turnovers that lead to those goals.

 

[Back2Back2Back]

The inside 50 stat is an incredible increase, though I would love to see the difference in stats regarding shots on goal - I don't get the feeling that this number has improved that much at all. I'm really not enjoying watching us do all the hard work of getting the ball out of defense and running it through the midfield, only to bang it into the forward 50 up high and have it bounce back out again with ease. Hipwood cannot crash packs yet, and with his body type probably never will - so we need to do something more than try and get it over the back for him to attempt to run on to.

 

[lioninthesand]

The inside 50 stat is an incredible increase, though I would love to see the difference in stats regarding shots on goal - I don't get the feeling that this number has improved that much at all. I'm really not enjoying watching us do all the hard work of getting the ball out of defense and running it through the midfield, only to bang it into the forward 50 up high and have it bounce back out again with ease. Hipwood cannot crash packs yet, and with his body type probably never will - so we need to do something more than try and get it over the back for him to attempt to run on to.

The inside 50 differential increase is the standout stat, we were getting smacked on inside 50s each week, often even when we win.

At a quick comparision - we are only down 2% on efficency once inside 50 in terms of shots from entries.

Incredibly our disposal efficiency is almost exactly the same.

 

[dlanod]

For interests sake, if we remove the tigers game (amazingly we go back in one stat and the only big change is score, it was an incredibly close stat line for a 93 point loss)

I think this was a great exercise and it'll be interesting to see how the numbers hold up if we stay within five goals of GWS this week - while we lost to Richmond by 93 points in week 4, in week 6 last year we lost to Port by 83 with a 19 CP deficit and a massive 29 I50 deficit.

 

[lioninthesand]

Whats also interesting is if you compare our 'key stat differential' vs opposition in the last 5 games of 2017 (as opposed to the first 5 of last year) with the first 5 games of this year..
we continue to hold up ok again.

Stat differential vs opponent of Last 5 of 2017 vs first 5 of 2018

Score - 67
Contested possesion +20
Clearence +20
Inside 50 +28
Disposal -76

So whilst it feels like our finish to 2017 was strong and we were heading in the right direction, and the start of this year feels 'so so' key indicators show that our first 5 weeks vs our given opposition has been (if anything) better than our finish to last year.

Just need to polish our execution up and the
Platform for sustained competitive output is starting to build.

You would imagine (barring a capitulation) this will look even better after round 10.

 

[lioninthesand]

I think this was a great exercise and it'll be interesting to see how the numbers hold up if we stay within five goals of GWS this week - while we lost to Richmond by 93 points in week 4, in week 6 last year we lost to Port by 83 with a 19 CP deficit and a massive 29 I50 deficit.

It is very important to look at comparisions, its easy to make assumptions on gut feeling... like 'our disposal has gone backward this year' but if you look there has been virtually no change in our disposal efficiency. It looked and felt to me like we had improved, mainly in our abilty to get the ball and stay in the game for longer periods and stats appear to support that. If we hold up over the next 5 weeks this diffential will continue to improve dramatically.

 

[luthor]

Thanks lioninthesand .

Very informative analysis

 

[mikey127]

Great work there. Last year our rounds 6 7 and 9 were big losses and rou d 8 about a 5 goal loss. I also think after this werk or next 3 are winnable. Would be great to revisit this in 4 weeks

 

[LIONS08]

I love this! Great work! The improvement is there absolutely! It will click for them! It just takes time!

 

[Nunez]

Top notch thread. Keeps things in perspective.

 

[lioninthesand]

Top notch thread. Keeps things in perspective.

This was my self therapy after the loss, its not healthy.

 

[notliondown]

This was my self therapy after the loss, its not healthy.

I reckon it is mate, perspective is bloody hard to find in the heat of a loss especially one like that. Thanks for helping us find it again.

 

[HowYouDoin]

Yeah, that's good and all but we're still 0 and 5

 

[scoman]

No improvement matters till we win games. We are no longer the 'bunch of kids' we like to think we are. The only stats that matter anymore are those displayed on the league ladder.

Still I like the thread. Nice work

 

[Forward We Go]

No improvement matters till we win games. We are no longer the 'bunch of kids' we like to think we are. The only stats that matter anymore are those displayed on the league ladder.

Still I like the thread. Nice work

Your opinion is your opinion but improvement for me means everything right now. Winning games will come with improvement and that's how we all need to think. It wasn't long ago that we had expectations of players who had 60-100 games under their belts who simply were not up to it. (probably still have 1 or 2 of them atm) Now we expect the young guns who have played 10-50 games to be our main movers and they are showing us the way ....EXCITING! They need 60-80 games to really be a force so in the meantime we as supporters should be behind them 100% and be excited with the talent coming through. Positive supporters are much much better than Negative Nelly's I can guarantee you that.

 

[Viceregal]

If I had to choose between an improving team with a potentially high ceiling and an expected future of good football and hopefully contending and a stagnating team at their level vacillating between finals contention and missing the bottom four and never contending but winning a few more games in the meantime ... I would pick option A...

 

[Dylan12]

Your opinion is your opinion but improvement for me means everything right now. Winning games will come with improvement and that's how we all need to think. It wasn't long ago that we had expectations of players who had 60-100 games under their belts who simply were not up to it. (probably still have 1 or 2 of them atm) Now we expect the young guns who have played 10-50 games to be our main movers and they are showing us the way ....EXCITING! They need 60-80 games to really be a force so in the meantime we as supporters should be behind them 100% and be excited with the talent coming through. Positive supporters are much much better than Negative Nelly's I can guarantee you that.

Problem is; that has been the expectation every year for over a decade.

Of course, all you can do is be positive and hope for the best, but until we start winning as scoman pointed out, there really isn’t much difference and no one can say otherwise because that expectation has continually existed for a long time now.

 

[Nunez]

Problem is; that has been the expectation every year for over a decade.

Of course, all you can do is be positive and hope for the best, but until we start winning as scoman pointed out, there really isn’t much difference and no one can say otherwise because that expectation has continually existed for a long time now.

Compare our current list to our 2014 list.

. How many top ten picks
. How many first round draft picks.
. Who was the KPF to replace Brown
. Who was the KPF to replace Merrett
. Who were our gun mids

We can go on and on about "we've been rebuilding forever" but the fact is we had to hit a massive reset in 2014 after losing guys who were at the centre of our rebuild. We now have a list of young blokes who are absolutely committed to moving our club up the ladder and want to do this together. We have A grade KPP talent for the first time since we drafted Brown and have some bloody talented midfielders in McCluggage, Berry, Rayner (to name a few).

For the first time since probably the mid/late 90s, we've got a Wealth of good, high end talent that we will develop into a team that can push for a flag.

 

[Gadzorks]

Compare our current list to our 2014 list.

. How many top ten picks
. How many first round draft picks.
. Who was the KPF to replace Brown
. Who was the KPF to replace Merrett
. Who were our gun mids

We can go on and on about "we've been rebuilding forever" but the fact is we had to hit a massive reset in 2014 after losing guys who were at the centre of our rebuild. We now have a list of young blokes who are absolutely committed to moving our club up the ladder and want to do this together. We have A grade KPP talent for the first time since we drafted Brown and have some bloody talented midfielders in McCluggage, Berry, Rayner (to name a few).

For the first time since probably the mid/late 90s, we've got a Wealth of good, high end talent that we will develop into a team that can push for a flag.

And the 2018 number 1 draft pick

Hope that’s the right emoji

 

[MacMum]

Not only do we now have a team that shows genuine potential, we also, at long last, have competent people running the club.

 

[Nunez]

And the 2018 number 1 draft pick

Hope that’s the right emoji

We're five rounds in, absolutely no guarantee we will finish last.

 

[Forward We Go]

Problem is; that has been the expectation every year for over a decade.

Of course, all you can do is be positive and hope for the best, but until we start winning as scoman pointed out, there really isn’t much difference and no one can say otherwise because that expectation has continually existed for a long time now.

Get over it mate. The past is the past. If i lived on the disapointment of the past in my life i would never leave the house! Enjoy & appreciate the now instead of wallowing

 

[Fatcat08]

Get over it mate. The past is the past. If i lived on the disapointment of the past in my life i would never leave the house! Enjoy & appreciate the now instead of wallowing

I don't think its realistic to expect anyone who has followed this club over the last decade or so to just completely disregard the continual rebuilds and disappointments. While i can see the positives and am genuinely hopeful that this is it as far as attempts at rebuilding goes, there's still a very large and real voice in the back of my mind that is telling me we've seen this before and it hasn't worked. I don't think theres anything wrong with be a bit reserved in going all in.