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Analysis Optimism at the bye

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SgtSchulz

SgtSchulz

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Apr 24, 2014
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Reasons to be optimistic at the bye.

Reason 1:

We are one of only three teams to take 3 Top 8 scalps as the ladder stands at Round 9.

Top 8 sides beaten (R9 - 2018)
3 Wins
• West Coast
• Port Adelaide
• Essendon​
2 Wins
• Richmond
• Adelaide
• Sydney
• Geelong
• Hawthorn​
1 Win
• Melbourne
• North Melbourne
• Collingwood
• Gold Coast​
0 Wins
• GWS
• Fremantle
• Bulldogs
• St Kilda
• Brisbane
• Carlton
​
Reason 2:

We have overcome the hardest part of our fixture and it now opens up.

Our remaining fixture is made up of 13 games that includes:
  • 8/13 games at Adelaide Oval (62%).
  • 9/13 games against the bottom ten teams as of Round Nine (69%).
  • 1 double up against the Western Bulldogs who have not beaten a top eight team as of Round Nine.
  • 2 games at the MCG in the final eight rounds.
  • Our remaining games against the Top Four are all at home.

Reason 3:

Our injury list is small.
 
We've successfully negotiated the AFL's attempt to **** us in the ass with a reasonably good record. Losses against Essendon (Etihad), Geelong (AO) and West Coast (Optus) and wins against Fremantle (AO), Sydney (SCG), Brisbane (AO), North Melbourne (Etihad), Adelaide (AO) and Gold Coast (JS) for 24 points.

In comparison (corresponding teams in bold, games against Port in bold italics, teams outside the eight in red), of the current top 8 and teams just outside:

West Coast (32 points) have lost against Sydney (Optus) and won against Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Geelong (Optus), Gold Coast (Optus), Carlton (MCG), Fremantle (Optus), Port Adelaide (Optus), GWS (Spotless) and Richmond (Optus). Played 4 of 8 of our opponents and played us at home.

Richmond (28 points) have lost against Adelaide (AO) and West Coast (AO) and won against Carlton (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Brisbane (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (MCG) and North Melbourne (Etihad). Played 5 of 9 of our opponents.


Melbourne (24 points) have lost against Geelong (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG) and Richmond (MCG) and won against Brisbane (Gabba), North Melbourne (MCG), Essendon (MCG), St Kilda (Etihad), Gold Coast (MCG) and Carlton (MCG). Played 4 of 9 of our opponents.

Adelaide (24 points) have lost against Essendon (Etihad), Collingwood (AO) and Port Adelaide (AO) and won against Richmond (AO), St Kilda (Etihad), Sydney (SCG), Carlton (AO), Gold Coast (AO) and Western Bulldogs (AO). Played 3 of 8 of our opponents and played us away.

Sydney (24 points) have lost against Port Adelaide (SCG), Adelaide (SCG) and North Melbourne (SCG) and won against West Coast (Optus), GWS (SCG), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Geelong (KP), Hawthorn (MCG) and Fremantle (SCG). Played 5 of 8 of our opponents and played us at home.

North Melbourne (20 points) have lost against Gold Coast (CZ), Melbourne (MCG), Port Adelaide (Etihad) and Richmond (Etihad) and won against St Kilda (Etihad), Carlton (Blundstone), Hawthorn (Etihad), Sydney (SCG) and GWS (Blundstone). Played 2 out of 8 of our opponents and played us at home.

Geelong (20 points) have lost against Hawthorn (MCG), West Coast (Optus), Sydney (KP) and Essendon (MCG) and won against Melbourne (MCG), St Kilda (KP), Port Adelaide (AO), GWS (KP) and Collingwood (MCG). Played 3 of 8 of our opponents and played us away.

Hawthorn (20 points) have lost against Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (Etihad), Sydney (MCG), and Brisbane (Gabba) and won against Geelong (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), St Kilda (UTAS) and Essendon (MCG). Played 5 of 9 of our opponents.

Collingwood (20 points) have lost against Hawthorn (MCG), GWS (MCG), Richmond (MCG) and Geelong (MCG) and won against Carlton (MCG), Adelaide (AO), Essendon (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba) and St Kilda (Etihad). Played 4 of 9 of our opponents.

So what's the point? The point is that we're right up to our necks in this season, because we've got games against Western Bulldogs x2, Carlton, St Kilda, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Essendon, Fremantle and GWS to come, and opportunities to catch up to Richmond, Adelaide, Melbourne and West Coast - who are all above us on the ladder at the moment.
 

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Marshall to return at some point
Rocky hitting good form
SPP going full beast mode
Our backline continues to gel and look strong
Ken looks/sounds positive and energized

Lots of improvement left in us. I'm feeling good.
 
so what do we consider a pass mark this year?

Say 15 wins is what we are aiming for?

13 or 14 would be a okish, but not great. Anything above 15 would be A+. Looking at the draw, 15 wins is very possible, but i have PTSD with this club and expect a few extremely embarrassing performances along the way.
 
With the way Rockliff has been playing I am feeling much more confident about us than I was 3 weeks ago.

6 and 3 is OK, and I think we will be a better team going forward and still have a bit of potential improvement.

Can we beat Richmond or WCE? Can we put together a decent win streak? These are the unanswered questions ahead that will help restore or shatter faith in the side.
 
The Rubber Man said:
so what do we consider a pass mark this year?

Say 15 wins is what we are aiming for?

13 or 14 would be a okish, but not great. Anything above 15 would be A+. Looking at the draw, 15 wins is very possible, but i have PTSD with this club and expect a few extremely embarrassing performances along the way.
Click to expand...


14 wins weren’t enough in 2014 or 2017, with 2014 being the last year we were considered a real contender.

Anything less than 15 wins is a failure, and even then 15 might not even be enough for Top 4.
 
All of this good draw stuff makes me nervous, I don't chalk up too many of those games as certain wins.

Here's some statistical optimism though. We've only ever had a 6-3 record on 4 occasions - 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007. We finished 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd in those seasons. Top 2 confirmed.
 
Powerade 08 said:
I am not sure why that would renew your optimism. I’d be far more comfortable with Richmond flying and WC sitting bottom with McGovern and a few others on the LTI list.
Click to expand...
Nah we can take em.

Reverse that free kick count and all the momentum sapping it brings...we are in with a shot.

Wasn't it like 10 goals they scored as a result of free kicks to our 1.

I would be more worried about Richmond at the g then wce at the g....;)
 

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SgtSchulz said:
Reasons to be optimistic at the bye.

Reason 1:

We are one of only three teams to take 3 Top 8 scalps as the ladder stands at Round 9.

Top 8 sides beaten (R9 - 2018)
3 Wins
• West Coast
• Port Adelaide
• Essendon​
2 Wins
• Richmond
• Adelaide
• Sydney
• Geelong
• Hawthorn​
1 Win
• Melbourne
• North Melbourne
• Collingwood
• Gold Coast​
0 Wins
• GWS
• Fremantle
• Bulldogs
• St Kilda
• Brisbane
• Carlton
​
Reason 2:

We have overcome the hardest part of our fixture and it now opens up.

Our remaining fixture is made up of 13 games that includes:
  • 8/13 games at Adelaide Oval (62%).
  • 9/13 games against the bottom ten teams as of Round Nine (69%).
  • 1 double up against the Western Bulldogs who have not beaten a top eight team as of Round Nine.
  • 2 games at the MCG in the final eight rounds.
  • Our remaining games against the Top Four are all at home.

Reason 3:

Our injury list is small.
Click to expand...

I would divide teams by wins: 6+; 5; 3/4; 1/2.

Remaining Fixture
6+, ##1-6 (4 games – 3 home, 1 AO)
5, ##7-10 (2 – 2 away)
3/4, ##11-15 (5 – 2 a, 3 h)
1/2, ##16-18 (2 – 1 a, 1h)

6 games vTop-10, playing the most of them and against the stronger teams at AO. Good...

7 games vBottom-8, playing 4 at home. Also good...

Games Played
v6+ wins, 3 games (2a, 1AO) - 2w
v5, 2 (1h, 1a) - 1w
v3/4, 3 (1h, 2a) - 2w
v1/2, 1 (1h) - 1e

Not bad, losing against Eagles (a), Cats (h), and Bombers (a).

---

Travel-wise, we have: (II Part) Tasmania, PAO, PAO, PAO, Melbourne, PAO, Perth, and PAO; (III Part) Ballarat, AO, PAO, Melbourne, and PAO.

I hope we can finish the II Part with a 6-2 record (12-5, overall).

I had us going 4-5, 6-2, 4-1 (14-8). We are already two wins above it.
 
Last edited:
I’m not optimistic at all to be honest. We’re an also-ran side again this year, probably snag a home elim final but we’re lacking the polish, class and consistency required to be a top 4 side. The thing that does give me hope is that Dixon and Wingard, two players easily in our best 5, have barely fired a shot all year. If we can find a way to unlock their best, then we can go to another level.
 

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Jakksynn said:
I’m not optimistic at all to be honest. We’re an also-ran side again this year, probably snag a home elim final but we’re lacking the polish, class and consistency required to be a top 4 side. The thing that does give me hope is that Dixon and Wingard, two players easily in our best 5, have barely fired a shot all year. If we can find a way to unlock their best, then we can go to another level.
Click to expand...

I was expecting this. The fact that we are 6-3, but not a finished product should be a reason for hope. The question is whether we can reach September (the sooner the better, of course) well polished or not.
 
If we could replicate the third quarter of the Showdown on a more consistent basis, the sky's the limit for this team. What matters most is what happens in September - if we hit our best form in finals, anything is possible.
 
Sure we might of gotten over the hard hump of the season but we’ve seen this all before, we fall and fail against absolute minnows.
Yes on paper and looking at the fixture for the rest of the season looks mouth watering but we’ve been teased and let down ohhh so many times before with this club.

The fact that we play against the stronger opponents we have left at Adelaide Oval means **** all. We can’t play at home for shit and until we string a few solid home wins in a row, like after the bye against 3 decent enough sides back2back2back, then again it’s just a tease.

Shall reserve judgement until the end of round 23.
 
JAlexG said:
Sure we might of gotten over the hard hump of the season but we’ve seen this all before, we fall and fail against absolute minnows.
Yes on paper and looking at the fixture for the rest of the season looks mouth watering but we’ve been teased and let down so many times before with this club.

The fact that we play against the stronger opponents we have left at Adelaide Oval means **** all. We can’t play at home for shit and until we string a few solid home wins in a row, like after the bye against 3 decent enough sides back2back2back, then again it’s just a tease.

Shall reserve judgement until the end of round 23.
Click to expand...

Weren't we "flat-track bullies"? Now, "we fall and fail against the absolute minnows"!? You guys love to confuse me!
 
Friday night, Thursday night, Friday night home games rounds 12-14. We must win all three of those, and they're the bye rounds so ladder overtaking opportunities will abound. We have every chance in the world to set our season up in that three week stretch.
 

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Analysis Optimism at the bye

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