Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)

[Viva la Mattner]

A little earlier than usual to start this thread but articles starting to filter through.
For those who are social media minded I suggest you follow Melbourne Cup Max, has some great articles and opinions

Since Leigh Jordan moved to the VRC he’s really made inroads into the Japanese sector looks like a few coming over

Keen watch on Magic Circle who’s owned by the same guy who had Mount Athos

Any Antepost bets placed yet ? or recommendations to keep an eye on?

Seth never did venture back here to the punting board which is s shame he had some great insight

A couple of articles here:

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/vrc-recruiter-draws-big-names-to-melbourne-cup-20180513-p4zf0d.html


https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing...ical-melbourne-cup-story-20180520-p4zgcw.html


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...p/news-story/7cf22ecbdad2450281447adadc0a8a67

 

[iluvparis]

I'd still be wary about going Antepost with Magic Circle - owner regularly has Chester Cup winners and talks up bringing them to Melbourne but they rarely actually end up coming. Add to that the race itself is pretty ordinary - the stayers more likely to be competitive at Melbourne would be running in the Ormonde at the same carnival (interestingly won by Idaho this year).

 

[TBellicious]

Never too early to start the Melbourne Cup thread.

Can imagine Rekindling and Johannes Vermeer will be highly fancied to be in the finish yet again. Being a 4 year-old last year, Rekindling seems to be in a good age profile to give the back-to-back a real shake for the first time in a while. However, both horses haven't had a start since the race so may be coming into it with a too small amount of body of work.

I think it's going to be interesting to see how many of these exciting stayers in Ace High, Unforgotten, Hiyaam, Levendi, Kings Will Dream, Dark Dream, D'argento will head to Flemington following their presumed Caulfield Cup runs. I would think that only Ace High out of that list is a 3200m horse but you never know.

Saw in the news a couple of weeks ago that a Japanese horse Chestnut Coat ($21 Crown) has already confirmed to come over. Not in the market with Sportsbet.

I think it's fair to assume that none of the runners from the Andrew Ramsden last Saturday (winner being Sin To Win) will be there in the finish, even if they may start.

 

[iluvparis]

D'argento a stayer!?!?! Couldn't run a Derby trip down a well let alone 3200

 

[TBellicious]

D'argento a stayer!?!?! Couldn't run a Derby trip down a well let alone 3200

Correct. Which is why I never said he will go to the Melbourne Cup.
As I said, presuming all those run in the CC, the only horse that I could see going to Flemington is Ace High. Please read carefully next time

 

[iluvparis]

Correct. Which is why I never said he will go to the Melbourne Cup.
As I said, presuming all those run in the CC, the only horse that I could see going to Flemington is Ace High. Please read carefully next time

Point conceded - although you did still label him an exciting Stayer

Interesting question - last horse placed in a Doncaster to place in/win a Melbourne Cup? Surely hasn't been done since Super Impose?

I know he only ran 4th but was unlucky - I'd say if you are placing in Doncaster's you are going to be way too precocious for a Melbourne Cup.

 

[iluvparis]

And Magic Circle just comes out and wins a Group 3 by a lazy 6 at Sandown last night.

Seems to have got the full Weir milkshake treatment from nowhere since the stable switch in the offseason. Improved 10-15 pounds as a 6yo

 

[plays tall 1]

And Magic Circle just comes out and wins a Group 3 by a lazy 6 at Sandown last night.

Seems to have got the full Weir milkshake treatment from nowhere since the stable switch in the offseason. Improved 10-15 pounds as a 6yo

Nice run that, made a mess of them. Now qualified and has probably upped his rating enough to guarantee a start if he does come for the Cup.

Would be surprised if the good Dr didn’t bring this bloke, assuming he holds his form. He seems very passionate about the Melbourne Cup and presumably doesn’t hate money.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Nice run that, made a mess of them. Now qualified and has probably upped his rating enough to guarantee a start if he does come for the Cup.

Would be surprised if the good Dr didn’t bring this bloke, assuming he holds his form. He seems very passionate about the Melbourne Cup and presumably doesn’t hate money.

Mount Athos his main hope in the past if he’s in the same class then a real hope

 

[iluvparis]

Going to be poison unders all year now. Was weld held by Nakeeta in last years Ebor who ran well here but was nowhere near winning it.

Might have a improved out of sight but maybe he’s just been up and about early in the season.

Doesn’t strike me as a likely winner

 

[TBellicious]

 

[FallingLiefs]

who was the last 3.5yo filly/3yo filly southern hemisphere to contest the race? my first thought was Tres Blue but he was just a light feminine type.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Magic Circle pretty much confirmed

https://www.racinguk.com/news/ian-williams-set-to-give-royal-ascot-the-swerve-with-magic-circle

 

[TBellicious]

Marmelo ran a pretty impressive second to Vazirabad last night. Think they might be giving it another shake with him this year

 

[iluvparis]

Marmelo ran a pretty impressive second to Vazirabad last night. Think they might be giving it another shake with him this year

Would be staggered if he got anywhere near it - very plain last year when every possible for mine and they never win it having failed to at least place at their first attempt

 

[iluvparis]

who was the last 3.5yo filly/3yo filly southern hemisphere to contest the race? my first thought was Tres Blue but he was just a light feminine type.

Got solid lols from me

Honestly can't remember the last - especially given unlike the boys the Oaks is after the race - I thought maybe Slight Chance but she went to the Oaks after the CP. Research and Surround went to the Oaks too

 

[TBellicious]

Would be staggered if he got anywhere near it - very plain last year when every possible for mine and they never win it having failed to at least place at their first attempt

Yep hard to disagree with you there.
With that being said, finishing close to Vazirabad is good form

 

[bigpapagman]

Rekindling must surely be some hope again, given it's only going to be a 5 year old come November, any amount of natural improvement and it probably wins.

 

[plays tall 1]

Call To Mind, the Queen’s horse won the Belmont Invitational Group 2 in the USA this morning.

Prince of Arran ran third, and his trainer flagged a few months ago that they were considering a Melb Cup tilt. His form doesn’t exactly excite.

Call To Mind is now qualified for the Melb Cup and likely to get enough weight to get in. Looks progressive. No word on future targets yet. One to keep an eye on.

 

[iluvparis]

Like the Call to Mind formlines/progression a lot better than Magic Circle

 

[plays tall 1]

Chestnut Coat apparently booked into quarantine on September 15, and coming over for the CC and MC.

Has run second in the Nikkei Sho (G2) over 2500m and 5th in the Tenno So (G1) over 3200m. Ran 11th last start in the Meguro Kinen (G2).

 

[iluvparis]

Chestnut Coat apparently booked into quarantine on September 15, and coming over for the CC and MC.

Has run second in the Nikkei Sho (G2) over 2500m and 5th in the Tenno So (G1) over 3200m. Ran 11th last start in the Meguro Kinen (G2).

What odds can I get on it breaking down within 3 days of the Caulfield Cup?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Ascot Gold Cup on tonight

Usual suspects who’d destroy everything if they come are running

Order of St George
Vaziribad
Stradivarius

 

[plays tall 1]

Ascot Gold Cup on tonight

Usual suspects who’d destroy everything if they come are running

Order of St George
Vaziribad
Stradivarius

John Gosden has said the the Cup is an option they’ll consider for winner Stradivarius but they’re concerned about the weight he’d get, especially as he’s a small horse.

I fully expect OOSG to be nominated but not make the trip due to the weight he’ll be allocated.

Vazirabad as well would probably get too much weight and I doubt the Aga Khan has fond memories of the race after losing Verema.

The one to watch I think is Torcedor, who ran a nice third. Owned by NZ based Te Akau Racing who had Te Akau Nick run second in the Cup years ago. It looks like they’re considering the option. Whether he comes down here might depend on how attractively he’s weighted.

Max Dynamite ran a shocker but that means little - not his sort of race. If he comes down for the Cup he’ll be competitive again I suspect.

 

[iluvparis]

Torcedor looks like the typical one pace grinder they used to send 20 years ago. I'd give it none.