AFL 2018 - AFL Round 11

[AFLFootyChick]

There was a guy on here last year or a few years ago that used to go all in on every bet then used to cry when people talked him out of the bets and they got up. What was his name? Is this the same campaigner?

It was ORAZ...same guy, different screen name. Can tell it's him by the way he writes.

 

[Sabbathen]

Carlton +53.5
Bulldogs +39.5
Hawthorn +2.5
HAW/PA - u170.5
GC/GEE - o161.5
Gold Coast +24.5
Richmond -18.5
Richmond o91.5
Brisbane +27.5
North u101.5
NM/BL - u180.5
Fremantle +32.5

R11: -2.5u
YTD: 35/29/0 +2.5u
O/A: 235/179/0 +33.04u

Good Sunday
Week felt worse than it was, should have really been 6/6 with the GC/GEE total. Should have definitely covered. Freo + bet was way off and shouldn't have been a play considering their outs, but always easy in hindsight.

How did you end up -2.5u for the round? Curious as you never say what odds you are getting on any of your bets. $1.90 for everything?

 

[capperscap]

I don't think you understand the difference between dollars and units? You should be betting no more than 5 units per bet. What do you usually bet for a 1 unit play?

I understand that but it's just my method
occasionally i'll go all in on a team to win a few units as a bank roll builder.

 

[capperscap]

Adelaide so disappointing

 

[Sabbathen]

I understand that but it's just my method
occasionally i'll go all in on a team to win a few units as a bank roll builder.

Why not just save all your money for your “bankroll builders” then...

 

[chrisdon16]

How did you end up -2.5u for the round? Curious as you never say what odds you are getting on any of your bets. $1.90 for everything?

1u/play, $1.90 odds

 

[jefffff34]

Pies +60 into JDG to kick more goals than Walters.

20 @ 6.90

Fairly nervous last 20 minutes with Walters not leaving the forward 50 and Fremantle getting junk time goals but will take the $138 collect with a 1-0 and 61 point win.

 

[Sabbathen]

1u/play, $1.90 odds

You need to look for a new bookmaker if $1.90 was the best you could get on all those lines...

 

[demon_fanatic]

You need to look for a new bookmaker if $1.90 was the best you could get on all those lines...

I think pointsbet n topsport do at least 1.95 lines all season

 

[chrisdon16]

You need to look for a new bookmaker if $1.90 was the best you could get on all those lines...

It's just a default price. I actually get $1.91 or higher but I just use $1.90 for results.

 

[Rocky Straight]

I think pointsbet n topsport do at least 1.95 lines all season

Topsport 1.93 after final teams for $10k.
$2 line for 200 too.

Pointsbet irrelevant

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[Sabbathen]

It's just a default price. I actually get $1.91 or higher but I just use $1.90 for results.

But your overall record is 33.04?

 

[Robo87]

W.H-Elliot is @2.50 for 3g+ on SB, but you can get 2g+ @2.60 on b365 and 3g+ @6.50 b365
averaging 1.7g per game. 1u for the 2g+, 0.4u for 3g+

1u fogarty 2g+ @2.45 b365
0.5u 3g+ @6
0.5u douglas 2g+ @4.75 b365
0.3u 3g+ @17

Not a bad Sunday . +4.4u. Could have been a great sunday had douglas kicked better than 2.4 and not had a poke in the eye during the last quarter.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Not everyone likes money, but if u do I suggest getting on the following:

Sportsbet - DT markets - Sauce Jacobs over 78 points v GWS. Everyone against Gws nearly gets this in hitouts alone.

Betstar - Nic Nat over 100 Supercoach. Hitouts to advantage ooze points.

Dont mind oliver over 28.5 touches

Value but no moral is JK to kick 5 and Eags win at 4.50 on Betstar.

Chuck these in with kev Durant finals MVP nba

u watch Kev shit the bed

 

[chrisdon16]

But your overall record is 33.04?

I'm sure over 414 games there has been a few slightly higher or lower than 1.90. I could understand you questioning my results if I was giving myself an advantage but it's the opposite?

 

[mookieb]

toppy are +2.5 $1.95 on Hawks.

majority of my betting is done game day so not much to say now, backed you up earlier with you Dees thoughts in this thread.
should be able to learn more from discussing topics like that which relevant to betting markets instead of just tossing up the odd bet here or there which really counts for nothing in the long term.

as to books changing prices without taking money they do sadly, not sure 365 or Neds are taking any smart action, market will gravitate to which way topsport head usually, but moves pre game are pretty damn misleading especially when its 1pt.

Why not post your bets? You wouldn't know what the majority of posters on here have backed, but if someone makes an innocuous comment about a line moving then everyone comes out of the woodwork...

 

[Sabbathen]

I'm sure over 414 games there has been a few slightly higher or lower than 1.90. I could understand you questioning my results if I was giving myself an advantage but it's the opposite?

Some lower and some higher, how do you really know if you don’t keep a proper record? I’m not questioning your results per-se, I just don’t understand why you would go to the trouble of posting them here, on twitter and Instagram if it’s a bit of a guess? Instead of wasting your time with that shit, work out if you are beating the closing line. Work out if you are winning more bets when you take a line on a Monday versus the day of the game etc. Always make sure you are getting the best odds you can. You say you take it fairly seriously but it doesn’t seem like you are doing some really fundamental, basic things.

This isn’t a personal attack either so please don’t take it that way.

 

[NonPhixion]

Not a bad Sunday . +4.4u. Could have been a great sunday had douglas kicked better than 2.4 and not had a poke in the eye during the last quarter.

unlucky with Rayner too. 0.2, 1 hit the post.

 

[Rocky Straight]

Some lower and some higher, how do you really know if you don’t keep a proper record? I’m not questioning your results per-se, I just don’t understand why you would go to the trouble of posting them here, on twitter and Instagram if it’s a bit of a guess? Instead of wasting your time with that shit, work out if you are beating the closing line. Work out if you are winning more bets when you take a line on a Monday versus the day of the game etc. Always make sure you are getting the best odds you can. You say you take it fairly seriously but it doesn’t seem like you are doing some really fundamental, basic things.

This isn’t a personal attack either so please don’t take it that way.

He ran a betting service, I'm sure he was more accurate then.



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[capperscap]

Some very good games next week from a betting perspective

 

[Rocky Straight]

Some very good games next week from a betting perspective

How many bankroll jobs?

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[chrisdon16]

Some lower and some higher, how do you really know if you don’t keep a proper record? I’m not questioning your results per-se, I just don’t understand why you would go to the trouble of posting them here, on twitter and Instagram if it’s a bit of a guess? Instead of wasting your time with that shit, work out if you are beating the closing line. Work out if you are winning more bets when you take a line on a Monday versus the day of the game etc. Always make sure you are getting the best odds you can. You say you take it fairly seriously but it doesn’t seem like you are doing some really fundamental, basic things.

This isn’t a personal attack either so please don’t take it that way.

How is using a default price of $1.90 a "bit of a guess?" The majority of games I put up move in my favor, don't have an exact number. I don't really get caught up in the technical aspects what you're referring to. I put up my bets, they either win or lose. You're very vocal about what I do yet there's another guy here saying he's putting on 30-100u on games and you don't speak up? At least I'm honest and document my plays.

 

[Atavistic]

How many bankroll jobs?

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50U on GWS.

 

[Sabbathen]

How is using a default price of $1.90 a "bit of a guess?" The majority of games I put up move in my favor, don't have an exact number. I don't really get caught up in the technical aspects what you're referring to. I put up my bets, they either win or lose. You're very vocal about what I do yet there's another guy here saying he's putting on 30-100u on games and you don't speak up? At least I'm honest and document my plays.

Because he's a troll and if this board had any sort of moderation whatsoever, it would be a far better place. It's barely worth acknowledging his posts.
You said you take it fairly seriously, I was interested to know how seriously.

 

[Jugada]

Keeping basic records for the bigfooty punting board and your own records are two different things i presume