Match Details:
Round 12: Brisbane vs. Essendon
Sunday June 10, 1:10pm
The Gabba
Recent History:
Since 2014, Essendon has had a slight edge over Brisbane winning 3 of the last 5 matches, with 2 of those matches being decided by less than 12 points. In Fact since our club's inception, the ledger vs. Essendon is split at 14 - 1 - 14 from 29 matches. Under Fagan's tenure, the Lion's have been relatively competitive against the old enemy, with a close loss in R2 last season, and a historic comeback from 27 points down 13 rounds later. No better time than the present to seize the ascendancy.
Season So Far:
Heading into the season proper, both teams had expectations from the majority of 'pundits' for slight improvement. Many predicted Essendon to make finals again - potentially cracking the top 4 - given the talent level on their list, whilst Brisbane was expected to surpass wooden spoon expectations.
The reality has been very different, The Bombers have been inconsistent at best, hovering at a mid range level in several of the major statistical categories (I'll elaborate on that in the next sections), losing to many mid - lower positioned teams on the ladder. However the most perplexing things is that all four of Essendon's wins have been against premiership hopefuls, both South Australian teams, Geelong, and GWS. Additionally, Essendon had 3 representatives in 2017's All Australian team in Joe Daniher, Zac Merrett, & Michael Hurley. All of the aforementioned names have drastically dropped in form this season, with Daniher in particular stalling in his development with form struggles and recently sidelined with Osteitis Pubis.
Brisbane on the other hand has improved generally in most statistical categories over last season, without converting the gains into premiership points, sitting 17th on the ladder with only a solitary win heading into the round. If Brisbane had performed better in their opening quarters (worst in the league), they most likely would of had 4 wins to sit just under the Bombers, separated only by percentage. Fortunately, the blowout losses that have been a feature of our seasons for the last 5 years have all but disappeared, the lions in turn have become a fun to watch team playing an exciting brand of attacking football. Unsurprisingly, it's been our youth that has driven this change, lead by the likes of namely Hugh McCluggage, Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner, and co.
Statistics:
Statistically, the Bombers and the Lions aren't that far removed in most categories. On the one hand, Essendon dominated contested possessions averages (11th @ 143.4 vs. 15th @ 138.5), uncontested possessions (7th @ 230.2 v 12th @ 222.6) and tackle averages (4th @ 68.2 v 13th @ 61.6). On the other hand, Brisbane perform better in categories of center clearances (7th @ 12.8 v 14th @ 11.5), hitouts (5th @ 44.2 v 9th @ 39.4), and surprisingly enough - given our penchant for turnovers - disposal efficiency (6th @ 72.8 % v 12th @ 71.9). Additionally, in regards to clearances, rebound 50's, inside 50's, and goals, both teams are virtually evenly matched.
In my opinion, the story the stats are telling is the neither team has a major advantage over the other, both team's sets of stats are consistent with those of lower - mid bottom 10 finishing teams. Considering the previously mentioned point about Brisbane's close losses, that analysis doesn't seem too far off.
Round 12 Match:
With both teams coming off embarrassing performances against finals bound opposition and heading into their Byes next round, there is increased incentive for a win. Ultimately, Essendon want to level their playing record in order to build for an unlikely finals push, whilst Brisbane want some tangible reward for their overall consistent - but fruitless - efforts for the first half of the year. Moreover, we have started to turn the Gabba back into a mini fortress, with teams having to work hard for the win. In every match at home - with exception to the Sydney game - we have been in a winning position during the forth quarter.
Whilst this bodes well for the home ground advantage, our injury list of late does not. In the last three weeks, Brisbane has gone from boasting the best injury list in the AFL with 3 listed injuries to 12 wounded warriors at the start of this week. Most concerning of these is our 'heart and soul' Mitch Robinson with a broken toe (3 weeks) and Charlie Cameron ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn Lisfranc ligament.
The Bombers have been one of the more intriguing teams this season, having fallen short of most expectation. Consequently, Essendon have performed at their best as a team once they have been removed of the external expectation of winning. One area of play the Bombers do excel at is their tackling pressure (4th overall), and it comes as no surprise that when they win, they have usually won the tackle count decisively. Although Brisbane have improved over that last month in tackling, they have been inconsistent at times, like in the first half of the North game for example.
Irrespective of their 3 incumbent All Australians, they Bombers do have several key contributors. Recently, Dyson Heppell has started to improve in his ability to lead from the front as Captain, often being Essendon's best player. Jake Stringer's form in the last month is starting to resemble his best at the Bulldog's, gathering 29 disposals versus Richmond, and 3 goals against GWS. What is more, Devon Smith has been a tackling juggernaut since coming over from the Giants, leading all players for total tackles whilst averaging 20.9 possessions playing at half forward and rotating through the midfield.
While watching last week's Dream Time game, I noticed that Essendon struggled big time with Richmond's ability to move their defensive zone when The Bomber's half backs tried to rebound the ball, often forcing them to kick long to a contest. Essendon generally rely on a simple game plan of quick ball movement through the center corridor, force them wide and they struggle to adjust. In turn The Tigers had excellent player spacing, often forcing uneven numbers to attack the ball carrier, which in turn created plenty of forward space for their receivers once Richmond cleared the defenders.
At times during the regular season - think Hawthorn - Brisbane have displayed a similar ability to run and gun. When our players consistently hit their targets, with quick ball movement through the middle, few teams look more potent offensively. This in large part has been aided by one of our biggest areas of improvement - willingness to sheppard. I've noticed that in general we have cut down on easy, over the back goal that opponents were once generating with ease. This is also reflected by our rise in Disposal Efficiency rankings from 12th in 2017 to 6th in 2018.
Additionally, we finally have several good ball users setting up our attack off of the half back in Rich, Hodge, Witherden, and Andrews. Unfortunately our midfield leaves much to be desired at times, due to the lack of 24 - 27 year old who can perform up to the standards of modern footy. Despite the improvement of McCluggage, Taylor, and Berry, we still have to expect near BOG performance from the old brigade of Zorko, Beams, and Martin in order to seal a win. What is more, the untimely injury of Sir Charles Cameron has left us shallow in Small Forward depth in the forward line. Players like Ben Keays and Lewis Taylor can provide stop gap options, but are hardly long term answers. McStay has been a solid target as the third tall, but his inability to convert his set shots can also make him a liability at times, however I do think he does provide a structural purpose.
Conclusion:
Overall, Fagan has done a terrific job at getting the playing group to perform at a consistent level, especially in regards to bouncing back after the few disappointing games. Before the injury list was published, I would have penciled this match in as a win. Unfortunately the loss of experienced mid level players in Robbo and Cameron can have a deflating effect on the group. The bright side is that Essendon have struggled with expectation all season, hopefully they remain consistent in their form.
Lions by 8 points.
Round 12: Brisbane vs. Essendon
Sunday June 10, 1:10pm
The Gabba
Recent History:
Since 2014, Essendon has had a slight edge over Brisbane winning 3 of the last 5 matches, with 2 of those matches being decided by less than 12 points. In Fact since our club's inception, the ledger vs. Essendon is split at 14 - 1 - 14 from 29 matches. Under Fagan's tenure, the Lion's have been relatively competitive against the old enemy, with a close loss in R2 last season, and a historic comeback from 27 points down 13 rounds later. No better time than the present to seize the ascendancy.
Season So Far:
Heading into the season proper, both teams had expectations from the majority of 'pundits' for slight improvement. Many predicted Essendon to make finals again - potentially cracking the top 4 - given the talent level on their list, whilst Brisbane was expected to surpass wooden spoon expectations.
The reality has been very different, The Bombers have been inconsistent at best, hovering at a mid range level in several of the major statistical categories (I'll elaborate on that in the next sections), losing to many mid - lower positioned teams on the ladder. However the most perplexing things is that all four of Essendon's wins have been against premiership hopefuls, both South Australian teams, Geelong, and GWS. Additionally, Essendon had 3 representatives in 2017's All Australian team in Joe Daniher, Zac Merrett, & Michael Hurley. All of the aforementioned names have drastically dropped in form this season, with Daniher in particular stalling in his development with form struggles and recently sidelined with Osteitis Pubis.
Brisbane on the other hand has improved generally in most statistical categories over last season, without converting the gains into premiership points, sitting 17th on the ladder with only a solitary win heading into the round. If Brisbane had performed better in their opening quarters (worst in the league), they most likely would of had 4 wins to sit just under the Bombers, separated only by percentage. Fortunately, the blowout losses that have been a feature of our seasons for the last 5 years have all but disappeared, the lions in turn have become a fun to watch team playing an exciting brand of attacking football. Unsurprisingly, it's been our youth that has driven this change, lead by the likes of namely Hugh McCluggage, Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner, and co.
Statistics:
Statistically, the Bombers and the Lions aren't that far removed in most categories. On the one hand, Essendon dominated contested possessions averages (11th @ 143.4 vs. 15th @ 138.5), uncontested possessions (7th @ 230.2 v 12th @ 222.6) and tackle averages (4th @ 68.2 v 13th @ 61.6). On the other hand, Brisbane perform better in categories of center clearances (7th @ 12.8 v 14th @ 11.5), hitouts (5th @ 44.2 v 9th @ 39.4), and surprisingly enough - given our penchant for turnovers - disposal efficiency (6th @ 72.8 % v 12th @ 71.9). Additionally, in regards to clearances, rebound 50's, inside 50's, and goals, both teams are virtually evenly matched.
In my opinion, the story the stats are telling is the neither team has a major advantage over the other, both team's sets of stats are consistent with those of lower - mid bottom 10 finishing teams. Considering the previously mentioned point about Brisbane's close losses, that analysis doesn't seem too far off.
Round 12 Match:
With both teams coming off embarrassing performances against finals bound opposition and heading into their Byes next round, there is increased incentive for a win. Ultimately, Essendon want to level their playing record in order to build for an unlikely finals push, whilst Brisbane want some tangible reward for their overall consistent - but fruitless - efforts for the first half of the year. Moreover, we have started to turn the Gabba back into a mini fortress, with teams having to work hard for the win. In every match at home - with exception to the Sydney game - we have been in a winning position during the forth quarter.
Whilst this bodes well for the home ground advantage, our injury list of late does not. In the last three weeks, Brisbane has gone from boasting the best injury list in the AFL with 3 listed injuries to 12 wounded warriors at the start of this week. Most concerning of these is our 'heart and soul' Mitch Robinson with a broken toe (3 weeks) and Charlie Cameron ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn Lisfranc ligament.
The Bombers have been one of the more intriguing teams this season, having fallen short of most expectation. Consequently, Essendon have performed at their best as a team once they have been removed of the external expectation of winning. One area of play the Bombers do excel at is their tackling pressure (4th overall), and it comes as no surprise that when they win, they have usually won the tackle count decisively. Although Brisbane have improved over that last month in tackling, they have been inconsistent at times, like in the first half of the North game for example.
Irrespective of their 3 incumbent All Australians, they Bombers do have several key contributors. Recently, Dyson Heppell has started to improve in his ability to lead from the front as Captain, often being Essendon's best player. Jake Stringer's form in the last month is starting to resemble his best at the Bulldog's, gathering 29 disposals versus Richmond, and 3 goals against GWS. What is more, Devon Smith has been a tackling juggernaut since coming over from the Giants, leading all players for total tackles whilst averaging 20.9 possessions playing at half forward and rotating through the midfield.
While watching last week's Dream Time game, I noticed that Essendon struggled big time with Richmond's ability to move their defensive zone when The Bomber's half backs tried to rebound the ball, often forcing them to kick long to a contest. Essendon generally rely on a simple game plan of quick ball movement through the center corridor, force them wide and they struggle to adjust. In turn The Tigers had excellent player spacing, often forcing uneven numbers to attack the ball carrier, which in turn created plenty of forward space for their receivers once Richmond cleared the defenders.
At times during the regular season - think Hawthorn - Brisbane have displayed a similar ability to run and gun. When our players consistently hit their targets, with quick ball movement through the middle, few teams look more potent offensively. This in large part has been aided by one of our biggest areas of improvement - willingness to sheppard. I've noticed that in general we have cut down on easy, over the back goal that opponents were once generating with ease. This is also reflected by our rise in Disposal Efficiency rankings from 12th in 2017 to 6th in 2018.
Additionally, we finally have several good ball users setting up our attack off of the half back in Rich, Hodge, Witherden, and Andrews. Unfortunately our midfield leaves much to be desired at times, due to the lack of 24 - 27 year old who can perform up to the standards of modern footy. Despite the improvement of McCluggage, Taylor, and Berry, we still have to expect near BOG performance from the old brigade of Zorko, Beams, and Martin in order to seal a win. What is more, the untimely injury of Sir Charles Cameron has left us shallow in Small Forward depth in the forward line. Players like Ben Keays and Lewis Taylor can provide stop gap options, but are hardly long term answers. McStay has been a solid target as the third tall, but his inability to convert his set shots can also make him a liability at times, however I do think he does provide a structural purpose.
Conclusion:
Overall, Fagan has done a terrific job at getting the playing group to perform at a consistent level, especially in regards to bouncing back after the few disappointing games. Before the injury list was published, I would have penciled this match in as a win. Unfortunately the loss of experienced mid level players in Robbo and Cameron can have a deflating effect on the group. The bright side is that Essendon have struggled with expectation all season, hopefully they remain consistent in their form.
Lions by 8 points.
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