AFL 2018 - AFL Round 14

[SM]

What a disgusting last quarter for my unders bet lol.

 

[mookieb]

This is my point though, it’s such a small sample size. Each team has 1 bye a year, how many years back would you go to have any sort of confidence that the result is not just variance or a host of other factors? By your own admission you discount Essendon results from 2 years ago due to their list. Going back 2 years and even further, the vast majority of teams will have very different playing lists, coaching staff, game styles etc. WA has a brand new stadium this year for example. I really think it’s fools gold trying to find trends in results from 12+ months ago. The other thing you have to understand is all that sort of data is readily available in the public domain. If it really did hold any weight it will already be factored into the current odds you are getting.

Here is a link for a past study on the effect of longer vs shorter days break between games for teams over a 3 year period. http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...-rest-matter-in-the-home-and-away-season.html
TLDR; it basically finds there is no significant advantage/disadvantage. It doesn’t go into bye rounds but I think you can apply the same theories.

Generally 6 day breaks are marginally negative, consecutive 6 day breaks have a significant impact on results and based on stats the bye is overall negative on results ATS. However, I looked at the last 4 years and it looked positive for the bye - but as Jugada posted the last 4 years has been fairly different to the years before it. For 2018 the teams having the bye have been very ordinary to date. So I don't know if there is any meaningful trend in play or if it's just variance. I have a feeling some teams are sluggish off the break and get jumped whereas some off the better coached teams (like the Hawks) get extra time to prepare and come out strong, but I haven't looked at it closely to determine whether i'm likely to be correct or not.

Some teams like Geel are 0-6 so I would certainly take this into account if I was thinking about backing them.

"The other thing you have to understand is all that sort of data is readily available in the public domain. If it really did hold any weight it will already be factored into the current odds you are getting." If your active in the share market then the above quote is the same as the efficient market theory in that all fundamentals are in the public domain so that you can't beat the market as the price is correct. I think that EMT is crap and also think the same for beating bookmaker odds as well. I mean several books don't even seem to realise it's windy at Blundstone...

 

[langdon19]

Wh vs North U171.5

 

[mookieb]

Jumping on North -26.5

Got them winning by 31 but Wood and McRae are huge outs. Argubly their two most important players. Think the Kangas eat them up tonight especially in the midfield. Dogs season is done and North need to win and win well to keep their finals chances alive.

WB have been pumped by good teams and the winning margins have been big. They have a terrible forward and backline and the midfield is hurt by having Macrae out and Bont will most likely get the Jacobs blanket.

I'm a bit worried that NM might get jumped coming off the bye (just a gut feeling). WB jumped Melb (first 3 goals) and Coll (up 4 goals at qtr time) before rolling over. But realistically they are the superior team but the market has firmed for them.

I'm on NM -13.5 and -17.5 / part middled with WB +27.5 , U172.5, Cunnington 24.5+ and NM win and Cunnington +26.5 and NM win (Unibest special).

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Zaine Cordy anytime goal @ 2.20. *kisses fingers*

 

[Sabbathen]

Generally 6 day breaks are marginally negative, consecutive 6 day breaks have a significant impact on results and based on stats the bye is overall negative on results ATS. However, I looked at the last 4 years and it looked positive for the bye - but as Jugada posted the last 4 years has been fairly different to the years before it. For 2018 the teams having the bye have been very ordinary to date. So I don't know if there is any meaningful trend in play or if it's just variance. I have a feeling some teams are sluggish off the break and get jumped whereas some off the better coached teams (like the Hawks) get extra time to prepare and come out strong, but I haven't looked at it closely to determine whether i'm likely to be correct or not.

Some teams like Geel are 0-6 so I would certainly take this into account if I was thinking about backing them.

"The other thing you have to understand is all that sort of data is readily available in the public domain. If it really did hold any weight it will already be factored into the current odds you are getting." If your active in the share market then the above quote is the same as the efficient market theory in that all fundamentals are in the public domain so that you can't beat the market as the price is correct. I think that EMT is crap and also think the same for beating bookmaker odds as well. I mean several books don't even seem to realise it's windy at Blundstone...

Last year gambling companies spent over $256million on advertising in Australia targeting people like you. But i’m sure an investment like that along with the wages of teams of quants, analysts and complex models probably overlooked it being windy in Hobart. Good luck to you though.

 

[sneak]

Last year gambling companies spent over $256million on advertising in Australia targeting people like you. But i’m sure an investment like that along with the wages of teams of quants, analysts and complex models probably overlooked it being windy in Hobart. Good luck to you though.

Just as afl clubs spend millions of lots of different things then miss shots from 20 metres out which cost you the game.

 

[Sabbathen]

Just as afl clubs spend millions of lots of different things then miss shots from 20 metres out which cost you the game.

Was probably the wind.

 

[HTPunter]

Jed Anderson O20.5 @ $2.02 (Pointsbet).

Started the year slow then went 21, 24, 28, 26, 19 before being injured early in round 11 v Brisbane.

Would take 4/5 covers of that line plus a minor loss at 2-1 odds (plus an injury).

Has a line of 19.5 on Sportsbut but at odds of $1.87. I'll take the bet that he'll get an extra disposal.

Happy I took the bet that he'd get the extra touch. Nice little hits for the day with Harbrow and Anderson being clear value based off their most recent form and being higher than the normal $1.87-1.91 odds you usually get on these disposal/fantasy markets.

 

[NonPhixion]

Taylor Adams o24.5 - SB 1.87
Sidebottom o30.5 - pointsbet 1.98

Also like Jack Silvagni ATGS - 2.40 SB. He is named FP and I rekon he plays the majority of this game in that position, Carlton have brought in Kennedy who I think takes his position in the middle.

 

[HTPunter]

Taylor Adams o24.5 - SB 1.87
Sidebottom o30.5 - pointsbet 1.98

Also like Jack Silvagni ATGS - 2.40 SB. He is named FP and I rekon he plays the majority of this game in that position, Carlton have brought in Kennedy who I think takes his position in the middle.

Slept on it and having a nibble at the Sidebottom and Silvagni ones.

 

[SM]

Nervous about jumping on Pies lines, just feels like the Blues will come out firing against the Pies. But then, Pies still swatted aside the Dees so who knows.

 

[Chism]

Trust me this is well worth $5.



Rowe playing on him and god help us.

 

[NonPhixion]

Trust me this is well worth $5.

View attachment 516906

Rowe playing on him and god help us.

thought about this too, but thats cause I thought Jones was playing on him
which of the 2 is more likely?

 

[Chism]

thought about this too, but thats cause I thought Jones was playing on him
which of the 2 is more likely?

Rowe will get first crack by all reports and he could be on 4 goals by the time the switch is made!

Cox is marking well and kicking the ball straight while we are terrible down back with a bloke always going big against us.

50-1 is great odds IMO and i can see at least 6-8 marks for Cox in the F50 all game and if he kicks straight cash in!

 

[Hellboy101]

Can get Cox 6+ goals into a pies win @191-1 on sportsbet with SGM. I am on for $10

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Can get Cox 6+ goals into a pies win @191-1 on sportsbet with SGM. I am on for $10

Cox 3+ goals into a Collingwood win is a juicy $5 on Sportsbet. Should get three goals easily.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Cox 3+ goals into a Collingwood win is a juicy $5 on Sportsbet. Should get three goals easily.

Lol suddenly Mason Cox is some unstoppable Force coz he tore up a Dees team not adjusting to missing their best defender 1st game

 

[juzza316]

what odds for Cox to kick more than Carltons entire score

 

[Spads]

Lol suddenly Mason Cox is some unstoppable Force coz he tore up a Dees team not adjusting to missing their best defender 1st game

Hey, in the exact same forum, just 2 weeks ago, the demons were a lock to finish top 4 for the next 5 years.

Overreactions are part of the appeal of this forum.

 

[Robo87]

well tipping this week gone to shit already

didn't find this round that hard, got 4/5 so far, only missed Essendon game.

 

[capperscap]

Cox 10+ goals into collingwood to win
$5 to win $50k

 

[Robo87]

10g is too extreme but 3 or 4 is more realistic imo.
1.5u cox 3g+ & pies win @4.75 sb
0.5u cox 4g+ & pies win @12.5 sb
0.2u cox 5g+ & pies win @42.5 sb
0.1u cox 6g+ & pies win @171 sb
0.5u cox 3g+ & WHE 3g+ & pies win @11.75 sb

 

[capperscap]

1u Cox to kick 6 or more @ 91.00

 

[mookieb]

Nervous about jumping on Pies lines, just feels like the Blues will come out firing against the Pies. But then, Pies still swatted aside the Dees so who knows.

I think Carl should be pretty solid in the first half. Held Syd and Geel recently early before getting blown out late. Bounced back twice from horrific performances the next week. Coll off a bye against a weak opposition might take a bit of time to grind the Blues down. Coll have taken a bit of time to grind some of the weaker teams down before blowing it out late so the Carl 1st half line looks good to me.