Bluemour Discussion Thread IX

[Blue_Fusion]

A 12 pick downgrade to obtain a top 10-12 midfielder in the league would be the very embodiment of daylight robbery.

Yeah on paper sounds good. But after applying some logic, I've come up with the fact that it is a very strong chance he won't be a top 10-12 midfielder in 3 years time when we realistically start becoming flag contenders.

Just be patient. One season is not that long to wait.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

That's looking at it from our perspective. From his perspective, he will get a more lucrative deal if he waits another year. And he'll be joining a team with more top end talent. It just works out so much better for him. Plus he doesn't have to sweat on a deal being done, he knows the AFL will compensate GWS accordingly.

I seriously doubt he has a massive urge to leave this year after having re-signed for 2 years just over 12 months ago.

I also SERIOUSLY doubt SOS will trade pick #1.

Strange because I recall not long ago him confirming that he's open to trading it for the ideal return.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

He has a year left on his contract at the end of this year. We can get him for free, ready to play in 2019. Surely we hold all the cards if Shiel tells GWS he wants to go. They get what they can this year, or lose him for nothing next.

Yep. And he's not going to tell them he wants to go this year I can say with 99.99999% assurance.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Strange because I recall not long ago him confirming that he's open to trading it for the ideal return.

He's testing the waters but no one is going to offer him what he wants. Trust me, pick #1 in an ultimate super saiyan draft is going nowhere unless someone offers us something ridiculous.

Shiel + pick #13 is not that.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think Shiel will leave, but what info do ppl have that he wants to choose us???????

 

[Teagueeee15]

I don’t see GWS being nice enough to give up one of their best players, who is under contract for just a swap of first rounders. They are in the premiership window and I doubt Shiel is that desperate to come home that he gets his manager to take a Cam McCarthy or Boyd like stance.

To get a contracted Lochie Weller, Gold Coast had to slide down from 2 to 41 in a deal that GWS will point to as precedent. Yes Weller is younger, but he’s nowhere near as good. If we want to trade for Shiel, we are going to be giving up pick 1 and not getting much, if anything back. If you thought they were tough to deal with on the Marchbank or Kennedy deals, that will be nothing compared to this deal.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

did you really expect those players to be in our next premiership team?

It is an answer to a post asking where Shiel fits in our side in 4 years time.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I don’t see GWS being nice enough to give up one of their best players, who is under contract for just a swap of first rounders. They are in the premiership window and I doubt Shiel is that desperate to come home that he gets his manager to take a Cam McCarthy or Boyd like stance.

To get a contracted Lochie Weller, Gold Coast had to slide down from 2 to 41 in a deal that GWS will point to as precedent. Yes Weller is younger, but he’s nowhere near as good. If we want to trade for Shiel, we are going to be giving up pick 1 and not getting much, if anything back. If you thought they were tough to deal with on the Marchbank or Kennedy deals, that will be nothing compared to this deal.

My answer in another post:

The why is simply perfect timing. GWS has both salary cap pressure with Greene reportedly taking a pay cut and a clutch of players becoming free agents starting at the end of 2019. If GWS lose 1 would-be free agent this year and another next year, it is in a better position than if it loses the 2 next year.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think Shiel will leave, but what info do ppl have that he wants to choose us???????

There's been some inside tidbits - he idolised Judd and CJ has been having some chats with him. He was a huge Blues fan growing up. Has a good relationship with SOS. We most likely can and will offer him more than anyone else.

 

[Psychochook]

I don’t see GWS being nice enough to give up one of their best players, who is under contract for just a swap of first rounders. They are in the premiership window and I doubt Shiel is that desperate to come home that he gets his manager to take a Cam McCarthy or Boyd like stance.

To get a contracted Lochie Weller, Gold Coast had to slide down from 2 to 41 in a deal that GWS will point to as precedent. Yes Weller is younger, but he’s nowhere near as good. If we want to trade for Shiel, we are going to be giving up pick 1 and not getting much, if anything back. If you thought they were tough to deal with on the Marchbank or Kennedy deals, that will be nothing compared to this deal.

That was fools gold the coast were chasing.

Brain fade trading at its best.

 

[Carl]

This attitude confuses me a bit. If pick 1 turned out to be a Shiel, we’d do a dance. Not to mention the very very real risk that you get something less than that. No certainty with the draft.

So why do we think pick 1 is overs for someone that is a certainty to be a Shiel in the sense that he is literally Dylan Shiel?

If you look from a different point of view. We are still rebuilding believe it or not. Shiel will cost you 1 mil per year for 5 years and his career nearly over. Pick 1 you get for 12 years. First 2 little money with little impact. Next 2 average money and top 10 player. Next 3 above average pay and top 3-5 player. Next 5 years on $800k (hopefully plays for less because loyal to club) and top 3 player.
This scenario relies on pick 1 being same standard as Shiel and no injuries to either player.

 

[cookie monster]

I don’t see GWS being nice enough to give up one of their best players, who is under contract for just a swap of first rounders. They are in the premiership window and I doubt Shiel is that desperate to come home that he gets his manager to take a Cam McCarthy or Boyd like stance.

To get a contracted Lochie Weller, Gold Coast had to slide down from 2 to 41 in a deal that GWS will point to as precedent. Yes Weller is younger, but he’s nowhere near as good. If we want to trade for Shiel, we are going to be giving up pick 1 and not getting much, if anything back. If you thought they were tough to deal with on the Marchbank or Kennedy deals, that will be nothing compared to this deal.

Different set of conditions, they will be looking to cash in on Shiel now before losing him for peanuts next season.

However, I don't think we'll get away with using a future pick on this trade

 

[Cliffords Blues]

He's testing the waters but no one is going to offer him what he wants. Trust me, pick #1 in an ultimate super saiyan draft is going nowhere unless someone offers us something ridiculous.

Shiel + pick #13 is not that.

A club 'maybe' able to offer him whatever he wants.
It is however, what GWS want, which is the important part of the puzzle.
As you said blue, I cannot really see him leaving this year, or SOS giving up this years pick #1 (no matter what change we may also get) when we can get him next year.
Might make an interesting trade/draft this year though

 

[HereComesJuddy]

exclusive posting, interesting concept
PM maybe?

Similar to what you just did?

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Similar to what you just did?

Not tonight HCJ

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Not tonight HCJ

Hehe. Agree. But people should be able to ask another a question on here. Just saying

 

[ray8182]

Re: Shiel, Gws just want a better result than what they will get next year. Next year they could very likely get compensated with a pick around 15 if he leaves. That is what we are competing against and it’s also our bargaining point.

To get him this year we just need to give them a better result than what they will get next year. It doesn’t need to be pick 1 2018. We just need to guarantee them something better than next years result. Maybe a swap of 2019 first rounders. They get roughly pick 5, we get roughly pick 15.

There’s this idea floating around that if we don’t get Shiel to Carlton this year that Cripps falls apart and his career is done and dusted in a few years. This is an extreme position. Once Kennedy is fit he will be the main partner to Cripps, providing support. Dow will also develop quickly as he is very aggressive in close.

There is no way in hell l would give up pick 1 for Shiel purely on the basis of age. I want a quality young player for the next 12 to 15 years before l want Shiel for 6 or 7.


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[HereComesJuddy]

Re: Shiel, Gws just want a better result than what they will get next year. Next year they could very likely get compensated with a pick around 15 if he leaves. That is what we are competing against and it’s also our bargaining point.

To get him this year we just need to give them a better result than what they will get next year. It doesn’t need to be pick 1 2018. We just need to guarantee them something better than next years result. Maybe a swap of 2019 first rounders. They get roughly pick 5, we get roughly pick 15.

There’s this idea floating around that if we don’t get Shiel to Carlton this year that Cripps falls apart and his career is done and dusted in a few years. This is an extreme position. Once Kennedy is fit he will be the main partner to Cripps, providing support. Dow will also develop quickly as he is very aggressive in close.

There is no way in hell l would give up pick 1 for Shiel purely on the basis of age. I want a quality young player for the next 12 to 15 years before l want Shiel for 6 or 7.


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Bang! Spot on

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Hehe. Agree. But people should be able to ask another a question on here. Just saying

totally, I replied to say just read back a few pages, that all
love the threads, but nothing worse when watching a thread, leave, then come back to see its gone off, and you are suddenly a dozen or so pages behind lol
by the time I catch up, most are in bed, as I'm in WA
If it seemed my post came across harsh on Blue, I apologies

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Re: Shiel, Gws just want a better result than what they will get next year. Next year they could very likely get compensated with a pick around 15 if he leaves. That is what we are competing against and it’s also our bargaining point.

To get him this year we just need to give them a better result than what they will get next year. It doesn’t need to be pick 1 2018. We just need to guarantee them something better than next years result. Maybe a swap of 2019 first rounders. They get roughly pick 5, we get roughly pick 15.

There’s this idea floating around that if we don’t get Shiel to Carlton this year that Cripps falls apart and his career is done and dusted in a few years. This is an extreme position. Once Kennedy is fit he will be the main partner to Cripps, providing support. Dow will also develop quickly as he is very aggressive in close.

There is no way in hell l would give up pick 1 for Shiel purely on the basis of age. I want a quality young player for the next 12 to 15 years before l want Shiel for 6 or 7.

Don't forget GWS are chasing a flag. Getting rid of Shiel this year means they will damage their chances significantly next year.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Re: Shiel, Gws just want a better result than what they will get next year. Next year they could very likely get compensated with a pick around 15 if he leaves. That is what we are competing against and it’s also our bargaining point.

To get him this year we just need to give them a better result than what they will get next year. It doesn’t need to be pick 1 2018. We just need to guarantee them something better than next years result. Maybe a swap of 2019 first rounders. They get roughly pick 5, we get roughly pick 15.

There’s this idea floating around that if we don’t get Shiel to Carlton this year that Cripps falls apart and his career is done and dusted in a few years. This is an extreme position. Once Kennedy is fit he will be the main partner to Cripps, providing support. Dow will also develop quickly as he is very aggressive in close.

There is no way in hell l would give up pick 1 for Shiel purely on the basis of age. I want a quality young player for the next 12 to 15 years before l want Shiel for 6 or 7.


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Your most likely right its why we will most likely either trade pick 1 for 2 picks and give the higher one to gws .
Or SOS finds another way to get another higher pick and passes that on .
If indeed Shiel does want out .
He's a creative bugger SOS .

 

[Malifice]

Or
A bashed up washed up 27/28yo Cripps as against a well managed beast with still plenty to offer ...

Is having Shiel 22 games earlier really going to help Cripps that much?

I mean come on. Lets not be shortsighted and go the messiah complex.

Trading pick 1 for 22 games from Dylan Shiel is ****ing ludicrous, even if we get pick 9 back.

 

[HBF]

I will vomit if it's Shiel for pick 1 straight swap. Surely not????

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SOS won't do that deal.

 

[Teagueeee15]

Don't forget GWS are chasing a flag. Getting rid of Shiel this year means they will damage their chances significantly next year.

That’s why I think it would take a godfather offer to wrestle him away from there. It would have to be pick 1 straight up, maybe with a late pick coming back to us. Maybe if they win it this year, they would be more willing to do a deal, because losing Shiel puts a dint in their 2019 chances.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Re: Shiel, Gws just want a better result than what they will get next year. Next year they could very likely get compensated with a pick around 15 if he leaves. That is what we are competing against and it’s also our bargaining point.

To get him this year we just need to give them a better result than what they will get next year. It doesn’t need to be pick 1 2018. We just need to guarantee them something better than next years result. Maybe a swap of 2019 first rounders. They get roughly pick 5, we get roughly pick 15.

There’s this idea floating around that if we don’t get Shiel to Carlton this year that Cripps falls apart and his career is done and dusted in a few years. This is an extreme position. Once Kennedy is fit he will be the main partner to Cripps, providing support. Dow will also develop quickly as he is very aggressive in close.

There is no way in hell l would give up pick 1 for Shiel purely on the basis of age. I want a quality young player for the next 12 to 15 years before l want Shiel for 6 or 7.


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My head tells me next years 1st rounder for Shiel.